Etienne in PPR

[scottybo 0]

What's your thoughts on Travis Etienne this year?  Going into auction draft dynasty league, I'm very weak at RB, with just AJ Dillon and JK Dobbins.   While I have some solid depth at WR.   AJ Brown, Jeudy, Waddle, Pittman, G Davis, Josh Palmer,

Start 2 RB and 3WR.  What do you think a fair offer for Etienne would be? He's the 3rd RB on another team and I want to see if i can snag him.  I also will have some decent money going into the auction to pick up a top rb so not exactly desperate.

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

I like the player more than the situation.  I personally wouldn't trade for him.  I'd let the other guy get frustrated with him over the next 2 years.  Then, when you can get him after his 3rd season when the Jags only have to suffer with Lawrence 1 more year before trying to get a real QB, you'll be much better off.  I'd say try and get an RB in the draft.

[weepaws 2,452]

If he stays healthy in ppr he could be a Rb2.  

[AxeElf 787]

Etienne has the talent to be elite, or at least he did before the injury.  It remains to be seen whether or not his recovery--and his team--will allow him to be an elite fantasy RB in 2022, but he's as good a prospect as any for a "surprise" top 5 back.

I would definitely try to obtain him if possible and reasonable.

[JagFan 97]

19 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Etienne has the talent to be elite, or at least he did before the injury.  It remains to be seen whether or not his recovery--and his team--will allow him to be an elite fantasy RB in 2022, but he's as good a prospect as any for a "surprise" top 5 back.

I would definitely try to obtain him if possible and reasonable.

I agree with this.  His health, and usage are major red flags at the moment, but there’s no denying the talent.  
I’d also look at acquiring Lawrence right now at a bargain price.  As you can see from another reply to your question, there are lots of people who are confused about his talent.  He’s legit, and will be one of the best for a long time.  If you can buy low on those two in a dynasty league, you’re set for several years if TE is healthy.

[weepaws 2,452]

Sorry but I’m still on the fence as it pertains to Lawrence.  

[Ray_T 587]

1 hour ago, JagFan said:

I agree with this.  His health, and usage are major red flags at the moment, but there’s no denying the talent.  
I’d also look at acquiring Lawrence right now at a bargain price.  As you can see from another reply to your question, there are lots of people who are confused about his talent.  He’s legit, and will be one of the best for a long time.  If you can buy low on those two in a dynasty league, you’re set for several years if TE is healthy.

I agree.   coming back from a big injury, it may be more reasonable to expect they wont push him too hard this year.   hes a young player, so the team will be looking out for his health(moreso than usual).

I'd be more inclined to draft him next season to be honest.   The team will be more willing to use him when hes another year removed from that injury.

[weepaws 2,452]

I think he’s going to be their rb1 this season, reports say he’s looking good.  

[JagFan 97]

Pederson has a chance to make a statement in his first year.  There is young talent on that team that in essence didn’t get a real rookie season last year.  TE will get all he can handle this year if healthy.  Lawrence has the talent to thrive under Pederson.  The apparent lack of pass catching talent on that team opens the door wide open for TE.  “Rebuilding” approach in the NFL gets you fired.  Pederson will use what he has, as much as he needs, to win games.

[jrokh 567]

2 hours ago, JagFan said:

Pederson has a chance to make a statement in his first year.  There is young talent on that team that in essence didn’t get a real rookie season last year.  TE will get all he can handle this year if healthy.  Lawrence has the talent to thrive under Pederson.  The apparent lack of pass catching talent on that team opens the door wide open for TE.  “Rebuilding” approach in the NFL gets you fired.  Pederson will use what he has, as much as he needs, to win games.

What's going on with James Robinson. Is he expected to be ready week 1?

[Ray_T 587]

1 hour ago, jrokh said:

What's going on with James Robinson. Is he expected to be ready week 1?

Last I checked hes not expected to be ready until week 2 or 3.   that was a week or so ago when I checked it, so that may not be the most up to date info

[Ray_T 587]

1 minute ago, Ray_T said:

Last I checked hes not expected to be ready until week 2 or 3.   that was a week or so ago when I checked it, so that may not be the most up to date info

and I wouldnt expect him to take a full workload his first day back.  he wont be in game shape.

[weepaws 2,452]

I think he’s 50/50.  

[DocNiner 44]

I agree with AxeElf on Etienne. He's an elite talent and.he's gonna see a lot of receiving targets out.of the backfield. Looks like Kirk.will be WR1 and.Marvin Jones in the mix but neither of them are world beaters. Lawrence has chemistry with Etienne and trusts him so you can be Trevor is gonna be looking his way a lot. I fon't.think it's completely out of the question but I feel Etienne could surprise a lot of people and finish 2022 as a top 10 RB. Yeah you can pull out all the negatives to say he won't but he's a RB that.I've got a hunch about this year and.my hunches have paid off more than not. Not saying anything but before last year I had a strong hunch on Jonathan Taylor and glad I went with my gut on him. Not saying Etinne will turn out to be Taylor but I'm willing to take a shot on him in as many of my leagues as I can. Don't over pay for him but I'd try to package a trade to get him. See if you can put together something with Jeudy or Gabriel Davis along with swapping a draft pick. Offer one of your mid-round picks and one of the mentioned WR's for Etienne and a pick a few rounds later.than your.pick offered. If that doesn't work you may have to offer up Pittman.along with something to get Etienne. Pittman will be Colts WR1 but I expect Etienne to put up better numbers than him. So, I say go get him.

[Ray_T 587]

hey doc, if fully healthy you may be right.   But Etienne had a very serious injury.

the dreaded Lisfranc.   a particularly bad injury for RB's.  there are many cases where this has effectively ended careers.   it is worse than an ACL or an Achilles injury.

to summarize.... your chances of a full recovery is not great if they had to perform surgery on it. (which they did in his case).

I understand the report is that the surgery went well, and thats good.   but there are a lot of little bones, tendons ligaments etc. that intersect at the lisfranc area and when you do something to one, it affects the others, so surgery and recovery can be very tricky and there is better than a 50% chance he will never be the player he was supposed to be prior to the injury.

look it up.   its a horrible injury.  Absolutely horrible.

guys who had the injury that I can think of off the top of my head, Cadillac williams had it after having a great rookie season.   not a factor after the injury.

Ditto for Ronnie Brown.   

MJD injured his Lisfranc in 2012. He only played one full season after that and his production dipped by nearly 50% in 2013 when he rushed 234/803/5 and received 43/314/0.

All 3 players came back to play but were never as good as they were before the injury.

This is an injury you probably want to do your research on before you go spending a pick on the guy, because I guarantee you the ADP does not adequately reflect the risk associated with the injury.

I love the player.  I really want to see him succeed but this injury scares the hell out of me.

dont get me wrong, some players do recover from the injury.    its when surgery is involved that the chances of making a full recovery go down drastically.

dont wanna piss on your parade and I'm sorry.   but you need to be aware of the risks associated with this horrible injury

 

[jrokh 567]

It’s hard to trust a Pederson Rb, at least as a RB1. That guy loves using 3-4 Rb a game. If Robinson is healthy ir would be very difficult for Ettienne to finish as a top 10 RB. Not a hunch, more like the most probable scenario…

[Ray_T 587]

4 hours ago, jrokh said:

It’s hard to trust a Pederson Rb, at least as a RB1. That guy loves using 3-4 Rb a game. If Robinson is healthy ir would be very difficult for Ettienne to finish as a top 10 RB. Not a hunch, more like the most probable scenario…

Well, we also dont know how quickly Robinson will return to being an effective player.

yeah they say hes on target to return a couple games into the season, but hes not in game shape at that point and they likely have him on a pitch count the first couple games.

What does that leave you?   a time share for the rest?

Both he and Etienne are coming back from injuries.  Bad injuries.  is there someone else in the lineup that can play if for any reason neither of these guys cant?

Unless 5th round pick Snoop Conner can step up to the plate I dont see anybody.   If Etienne isnt fully recovered to a point where he can run effectively and Robinson is still out, that player who plays may not even be on the roster yet.

just food for thought.   Though Etienne will probably get a shot to prove he can play.  but if he looks bad in camp, do they sign someone?  even as insurance?   

it feels like they should.

[jrokh 567]

42 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

Well, we also dont know how quickly Robinson will return to being an effective player.

yeah they say hes on target to return a couple games into the season, but hes not in game shape at that point and they likely have him on a pitch count the first couple games.

What does that leave you?   a time share for the rest?

Both he and Etienne are coming back from injuries.  Bad injuries.  is there someone else in the lineup that can play if for any reason neither of these guys cant?

Unless 5th round pick Snoop Conner can step up to the plate I dont see anybody.   If Etienne isnt fully recovered to a point where he can run effectively and Robinson is still out, that player who plays may not even be on the roster yet.

just food for thought.   Though Etienne will probably get a shot to prove he can play.  but if he looks bad in camp, do they sign someone?  even as insurance?   

it feels like they should.

Obviously, Etienne is the guy you want, but if you watched the Iggles under Pederson he used multiple Jags at RB all the time. It was very frustrating for fantasy even with them being one of the run heaviest teams. If Robinson is healthy, he will likely be the guy getting the most carries. Etienne will still be a nice weapon just not an RB1.

[weepaws 2,452]

I think that’s a very good point about the new coach, he did like to rotate his Rbs, I’m not sure he has the same stable on the Jags , Robinson and Etienne are clearly much better then any of the other Rbs on the team, when healthy I agree that Robinson will be the early down rb and probably goal line rb leaving Etienne a the third down guy, I’ve also read that they have been using Etienne as a wr some , bit I also think of Etienne does come back ready to role from his very serious injury, that he will surpass Robinson as the early down back as the season progresses.  Imo. 

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

If Etienne isnt fully recovered to a point where he can run effectively

 

[AxeElf 787]

40 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Etienne will still be a nice weapon just not an RB1.

It will really depend on if he has regained his pre-injury form or not (and honestly, I can't really tell from the Twitter vid, but it's encouraging that he's cutting with confidence, anyway).

Before the injury, Etienne was the kind of guy who could take any touch to the house.  If he does that a couple of times a game, I don't care if he's only getting 10 touches.

[AxeElf 787]

 

[jrokh 567]

9 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

It will really depend on if he has regained his pre-injury form or not (and honestly, I can't really tell from the Twitter vid, but it's encouraging that he's cutting with confidence, anyway).

Before the injury, Etienne was the kind of guy who could take any touch to the house.  If he does that a couple of times a game, I don't care if he's only getting 10 touches.

Talent isn’t really the concern. If you watch college football you know what kind of game breaker he is.

[craftsman 1,045]

45 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Talent isn’t really the concern. If you watch college football you know what kind of game breaker he is.

College players play against 99% college level players. Pro players play against 1% of college players that are really good.

[AxeElf 787]

38 minutes ago, craftsman said:

College players play against 99% college level players. Pro players play against 1% of college players that are really good.

A large percentage of pro players come from SEC and ACC schools, though.  It's not like Etienne went to Grambling or something.

[craftsman 1,045]

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

A large percentage of pro players come from SEC and ACC schools, though.  It's not like Etienne went to Grambling or something.

What are the %'s that become pros in the acc and sec?  I have no clue. I'm guessing low. But just a guess.

[AxeElf 787]

47 minutes ago, craftsman said:

What are the %'s that become pros in the acc and sec?  I have no clue. I'm guessing low. But just a guess.

Well like half of Alabama's team was drafted in the first round, so...

[craftsman 1,045]

6 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Well like half of Alabama's team was drafted in the first round, so...

So half the team? Do you know how many of their players were drafted in the first round?

[jrokh 567]

12 hours ago, craftsman said:

College players play against 99% college level players. Pro players play against 1% of college players that are really good.

Not really sure what your point is. Obviously, NFL players started out playing in college first. Etienne was a first-round pick, so it makes more sense to compare him to other Rbs selected in the first round and their sucess rate in the NFL. 2021- Najee Harris- so far so good. 2020- CEH- mixed bag, ok but nothing great thus far. 2019- Josh Jacobs- solid if not underrated fantasy producer. 2018-Saquon- Stud when healthy, R. Penny- Injury bust who actually may have been a league winner this past fantasy playoffs, Sony Michel- Meh, some flashes not great. 2017- Lenny Fournette- Mostly productive, CMC- Stud when healthy. 2016- Zeke- Stud, 2015- Gurley- Stud, Melvin Gordon- highly productive.

So, as you can see the hit rate for 1st round RB's of late is actually pretty high. Only Sony Michel and CEH have been mostly healthy underachievers. Penny was never healthy until last season and he won some people championships. CMC and Saquon have had bad injury luck the last few years, but when healthy they were at the top of the food chain. So as to your point that Etienne only played against college players, I would ask, relevance?

[AxeElf 787]

6 hours ago, craftsman said:

So half the team? Do you know how many of their players were drafted in the first round?

12 since 2020.

[craftsman 1,045]

2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

12 since 2020.

2 in 2022.

[AxeElf 787]

26 minutes ago, craftsman said:

2 in 2022.

Usually players stay in college for an average of 3 years, so of the starters Alabama fielded in 2020, approximately half of them were drafted in the first round.

[craftsman 1,045]

3 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Usually players stay in college for an average of 3 years, so of the starters Alabama fielded in 2020, approximately half of them were drafted in the first round.

So, from those that went to Alabama in 2018, they only had 2. Nothing wrong with that but it doesn't make your point.

 

[AxeElf 787]

Just now, craftsman said:

So, from those that went to Alabama in 2018, they only had 2. Nothing wrong with that but it doesn't make your point.

No, it's the stats I presented above that make my point.  And while it was kind of a throwaway point, you've now pedanted yourself into a corner, since it also turned out to be accurate.

[craftsman 1,045]

12 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

No, it's the stats I presented above that make my point.  And while it was kind of a throwaway point, you've now pedanted yourself into a corner, since it also turned out to be accurate.

You said half their team got drafted in the first round. They had 2 in 2022.

From the games that I saw, they had over 100 players on their team. And of their starters, they had 22 + special teamers each game. 

[jrokh 567]

2 minutes ago, craftsman said:

You said half their team got drafted in the first round. They had 2 in 2022.

From the games that I saw, they had over 100 players on their team. And of their starters, they had 22 + special teamers each game. 

I still don’t understand what any of this has to do with Etienne?

[JagFan 97]

In the NFL you have to have talent, opportunity, and be in the right place.  There are endless lists of talented guys that thrives in the current system, and became mediocre in their new system.  Guys why didn’t thrive until they got into a new situation.  And guys that thrived for one year, and stunk after that.  
If you are talented at the college level, that’s only one piece of the equation.

[craftsman 1,045]

6 minutes ago, JagFan said:

In the NFL you have to have talent, opportunity, and be in the right place.  There are endless lists of talented guys that thrives in the current system, and became mediocre in their new system.  Guys why didn’t thrive until they got into a new situation.  And guys that thrived for one year, and stunk after that.  
If you are talented at the college level, that’s only one piece of the equation.

This is so true.

[weepaws 2,452]

Steve Young always come to mind.  

[jrokh 567]

Obviously being a star in College doesn’t guarantee NFL stardom. But as I showed earlier being a first round RB usually paved a path towards stardom with injury not ability being the major obstacle…