Round Eleven - Sixteen Commentary - July Mock 2022

[Ray_T]

1 hour ago, Mike FF Today said:

I think he's referring to my site rankings as being off. He's positive on everyone's picks in the mock.

well dude needs to realize that a persons ADP isnt their value.   its perceived value by the masses and does not always reflect a players true value.

when I go through to prep for my draft I look a differences between my ranking and the ADP and target players who I think are likely to perform better than their ADP.    thus my comment about those players going earlier.     Thats how I judge the level of competition.  if my perceived sleepers are going 1.5 round earlier than expected that generally means other people were targetting those same players and the level of competition is high.

that said, most rankings are based on some combination of regression of past stats and ADP.    thats why when you go to Yahoo, their rankings are all screwed up.   most years when I've won pools, Yahoo predicted I would finish last or second to last.   why?  because I didnt pick based on their ADP.

following the ADP only guarantees you will follow the average result for the most part.  its when you stray from the ADP that your result can truly be spectacular.  

Picking that player that people dont think will be a stud and finding out he is one.

looking at a risky situation and spotting where the opportunity is.

Thats how you win drafts.  not by following the ADP.    and that is one of the reasons I like this site because fftoday rankings generally come close to my own and are sometimes willing to predict a player will perform when the masses do not.

so when I go to make my own, I often look at the fftoday rankings and make my own adjustments and I use fftoday because the number of adjustments I need to make is low compared to other sites.

[remote controller]

The one thing I have always said.  If you are looking for cookie cutter rankings than check the rest.  Mike's ranking have always seemed to be his own, while many of the other sites seem to peek at each others.