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vanrebl

Keeper league help

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Hey guys,
I am coming up on my 2022 draft and was wanting everyones opinion on who they would keep for this years draft.
my league is typ PPR , I can only keep up to 5 players and they will move up one spot in this years draft.
so if i use franchise tag player behind in draft order will have to be dropped for this years draft.



Typ PPR 25 pass,10 rec,10 rush, 6 TD

Roster Positions QB, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/R/T, K, DEF, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, IR, IR

players ending draft positions
1 DeAndre Hopkins Ari - WR Drop ------------Derick Henry will be my first pick of draft

2 Travis Kelce KC - TE Franchise tag----------to keep first rnd pick

3 Keenan Allen LAC - WR Drop---------------forced to drop

4 D'Andre Swift Det - RB Move to 3rd rnd pick 2022

5

6 Austin Ekeler LAC - RB Move to 5th rnd pick 2022

7 DeVonta Smith Phi - WR Move to 6th rnd pick 2022

8

9

10 Kyler Murray Ari - QB Move to 9th pick pick 2022

11 Kareem Hunt Cle - RB move to 10th pick pick 2022

12 Darnell Mooney Chi - WR move to 11th pick 2022

13 Alexander Mattison Min - RB 13th pick 2022

14 Pat Freiermuth Pit - TE 14th pick 2022

15 Hunter Renfrow LV - WR 15th pick 2022 13,14,15 were undrafted so dont move up in draft order this year

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I wouldn't keep Kelce.  I don't think he's worth that pick this year.  I'd keep Allen, Swift, Ekeler, Freiermuth, and Renfrow.

Since it's PPR, Henry won't help in that area.  You'll need him to rush for 1800+ yards & 18 TD's to stay with the pass catchers up top... I don't think he'll do that.  That's why you should keep Swift and Ekeler.  Being able to start 3 RB1's every week should make it easier on you with letting Kelce go.  Allen is a quality PPR guy and Renfrow is a steal at spot in the draft.  Freiermuth was TE13 last year, I think he's knocking on the door of the top 7 this year.

After your first pick, you won't have a 2nd or 3rd, but I'm willing to bet that there'll be a lot of owner with top 4-round players that they're keeping.  I'm guessing that there'll only be about 15 picks or so between your 2 picks.  I don't think you'll have a problem with getting another solid WR to pair up with Allen there and another TE (if you want one), at a later point.

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thank you for your input thats another look at it for sure from what i am seeing  im going to have to pick from

Henry -rb, Dalvin cook-rb, Mixon-rb, possibly davante adams -wr , cee dee lamb-wr, kamara- rb, Barkley-rb, aaron jones-rb ,A.J.brown-wr, Zeke-rb, akers-rb, mongomery-rb, Kittle-Te

diontae johnson -wr, antonio gibson-rb, breece hall-rb, josh jacobs-rb, etienne-rb, DJ moore-wr, Pittman-wr, j.k dobbins-wr, amari cooper-wr, sutton-wr, godwin-wr, mike williams, wr

marquise Brown- wr alan robinson-wr

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I thought you OP said that you had to drop Allen? 

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43 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I thought you OP said that you had to drop Allen? 

the way I understand what he explained, if he uses it on Kelce he does have to drop Allen.

if he uses the franchise on someone else he could keep Allen.  that is an option.   I also question whether the franchise tag on Kelce is worth it.  hes 32 and will be 33 before Christmas. but the move allows him to keep some pretty good players and TE wont really be a concern even if Kelce isnt the top TE this year.

if hes making a run for the championship, this is one of those swing for the fences moves.

I'll give this some thought, there are lots of combinations that could be attractive here,  this one is pretty good, but if keeping Allen, the better move may be to use the franchise on a later round player.  only downside is you lose Kelce.

What it really comes down to is do you think Kelce will be worth it.

 

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Ray_T

you are totally correct on the franchise tag option

If i dont take Henry at pick 1 who would you pick over him out of the players mentioned?

thanks for your response's

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2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

the way I understand what he explained, if he uses it on Kelce he does have to drop Allen.

if he uses the franchise on someone else he could keep Allen.  that is an option.   I also question whether the franchise tag on Kelce is worth it.  hes 32 and will be 33 before Christmas. but the move allows him to keep some pretty good players and TE wont really be a concern even if Kelce isnt the top TE this year.

if hes making a run for the championship, this is one of those swing for the fences moves.

I'll give this some thought, there are lots of combinations that could be attractive here,  this one is pretty good, but if keeping Allen, the better move may be to use the franchise on a later round player.  only downside is you lose Kelce.

What it really comes down to is do you think Kelce will be worth it.

 

Thank you, appreciate that.  

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I would either go B Hall or Barkley, I think Allen could be a little tricky to keep imo. j Palmer I think will be used more this season. Williams is three years younger, and I think he’ll surpass Allen as their best wr this season. I think I would keep Kelce one more season, and I’m not a te person. But this season it would seem he’ll be a very important asset to mr Mahomes this season, with so many new WRs on the team imo .

ps non keeper I would take Henry, he’s going to rock this season. 

 

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Weepaws,

thank you for your input...i agree with you 100% 

what 5 players would you keep ?....just curious

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I’m not a te person, but I would keep Kelce, Swift, Ekeler, Hunt, Renfro. 

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ok from what I can see there are 2 basic paths.

1.  there is the path where you want to win this year (keep Kelce)

2.  there is the path where you think you cannot win this year and you are building for the future.

 

if you cannot win this year option 2 is best.  keeping Kelce at his age wont help you beyond this year (maybe next)  so the only reason you keep him is if you think he will perform (most do) and if you think you can win a championship with him.   The guy can be a valuable piece this year but after that I wouldnt be betting on him that heavily due to his age and due to the cost to keep.

with option 1 (try to win now) you are looking at:   

D. Henry (first round pick)

Kelce (franchise)

Swift

Ekeler

D. Smith

and either Mooney or Kyler Murray.  price on both is attractive but its also a know your league thing.  are you likely to get someone better than Kyler Murray if you dont keep him?  Thats what it comes down to.     Mooney is also a good choice but I think there are comparable WR's you can likely get back in the draft but this part is truly personal preference.  I'd lean towards the QB because you will have 3 very good RB's , a top TE and a good QB  and should be able to fill out your WR spots if you draft well.

 

with option 2 (playing for a future year)  you are basically saying you cannot win this year so no point keeping Kelce.

in that scenario I'd keep 

Keenan Allen

Swift

Ekeler

D. Smith

and now you have your choice of Kyler Murray, Mooney, or Freiermuth

in this scenario I dont know that your first pick changes.  you still pick the best player on the board and you are likely unable to keep him unless you franchise him.   That option may make someone like Mixon or Devante Adams a reasonable alternative as there is the option to franchise and keep as your first round pick(if my understanding of your rules is correct)

another option in this scenario is to offer to trade whoever you pick for some nice players that are potential keepers next year.   in theory you could draft Henry and trade him for 2 potential keepers to load up next year(assuming the rules allow that)

 

my best guess is option 1 is your path.  you got really nice RB's if you draft Henry.  if he stays healthy it gives you an advantage at the position.    Kelce is good enough to give an advantage at that position in most matchups and ditto for Kyler Murray.  he may not be the #1 fantasy QB but he will be better than at least half of the leagues #1 and will likely play evenly against 2 or 3 of the top ones most weeks.   You only really have to worry about getting WR's and there is lots of depth at the WR position this year.  You should be fine.   if you hit on your picks you could have a really nice team.

 

 

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Naw you always play to win right now, I haven’t been in a keeper league for a long time , one of many reasons why I stopped doing keeper leagues was for that reason, I’m in rebuilding mode, hog wash.  

You can pick up a Qb later on , keep the best five and go win the cash.  

Hey good luck OP

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46 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I’m in rebuilding mode, hog wash.  

well, sometimes your keepers age and if they all age out at the same time, you can legitimately be in rebuild mode.   

The guys who are in rebuild mode for like 4 straight years are the guys who are full of it.   face it buddy you just cant draft worth a crap it its taking you this long to rebuild your roster.

there are formats where exceptions exist.  usually teams with 14+ teams and 5 or more keepers..... when your keepers age out the talent you are drafting from can be pretty thin.   those leagues can take longer to rebuild.

but i get your point.

given the roster here the original poster is probably looking to win now  as his team looks pretty solid.  but I also dont know how many other stacked teams there are out there.   when you have like 5 keepers each the prospects for rebuilding can be tricky and teams can stack an awful lot of talent to make a run.  perhaps more than what the OP has.

I'd suggest hes now looking like a playoff team.   whether hes a winning team remains to be seen.

 

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4 hours ago, Super Cubs said:

keep 6 in my league and WR are easier to replace than Kelce.  

kinda what I figured.  but if he doesnt keep kelce, Freiermuth is a nice, young TE with lots of potential.    potentially a top 5-6 TE if he wasnt working with a new QB this year.

due to the new QB I'd scale back expectations for this year.   Maybe TE9 or 10 but I like the kid a lot.

 

 

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I would agree, I think Freiermuth is going to be a good late pick up for me , if he’s still available. 

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I am going for win this year for sure!......what about keeping hunter renfro at pick 15 instead of smith at 6?

1 Henry draft round 1

2 Kelce

3 Swift

5 Ekler

9 Murry

15 Renfro

unless Hunt gets traded to starting team

I like Freiermuth too!

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58 minutes ago, vanrebl said:

what about keeping hunter renfro at pick 15 instead of smith at 6?

Smith got 900 yards receiving in his rookie year.  I really like him a lot.  and in the rookie year there are typically days where you are going to have bad weeks.  I think his upside is very good.

AJ brown (new WR in philly)  has averaged just over 1100 yards in 2 full years in Tennessee followed by a less efficient injury marred season last year.

he now rolls into a new offense with an inferior passer.

while my head thinks AJ should be the #1 dog in this offense, I dont think its a lock at this point.   Smith already has a connection with Hurts and If Smith takes a step forward in his development as a player he could easily be the best WR on the Eagles this year.

as for Renfrow, hes definitely not a #1 WR talent and an elite #1 has stepped in and will hog an awful lot of the targets.  He will do okay but I cannot see him eclipsing the totals from last year.    He's a true #2 WR in an offense where the TE is now the #2 option in the offense.  so that makes him less than a typical #2 WR unless one of the top 2 options gets hurt.  Hes cheap, but thats not a reason to make this move.

I'd personally keep Smith anyday over him   hes probably the #2 option in the philly passing offense, but could potentially be the #1 if he takes another step forward in his develpment as a player and AJ doesnt immediately establish chemistry with Hurts. 

while the odds of this are probably around 30% hes in a better spot than Renfrow.   if you keep Smith I dont think you will regret it.

 

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I would keep Renfro he’s the OP 15th round pick.  

 

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On 7/16/2022 at 4:20 PM, Super Cubs said:

keep 6 in my league and WR are easier to replace than Kelce.  

I don't think that'll be the case this year.  Well, meaning that I don't think Kelce will be light years ahead of anyone else.  I think he falls back to the pack a bit and some of the other guys move up.  I think Pitts, Goedert, Freiermuth, Hockenson, and even Ertz have good seasons to put them in a solid position to be a top 5 contender.  I think Kelce falls closer to 5, than up to 1.  Based on the cost, I don't think he's as valuable.  Meaning, I'd rather spend a 7th round pick on Goedert (or 9th on Hockenson), and 12 fpg, than spend a 2nd round pick on Kelce and get 14.  To me, he's not 5 points better than most, any more.   I think I'd get more production out of Diggs/Lamb (ADP 13)/(ADP 17) + Goedert (ADP 80) than Kelce (ADP 15) + Cortland Sutton (ADP 78).

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15 hours ago, vanrebl said:

I am going for win this year for sure!......what about keeping hunter renfro at pick 15 instead of smith at 6?

1 Henry draft round 1

2 Kelce

3 Swift

5 Ekler

9 Murry

15 Renfro

unless Hunt gets traded to starting team

I like Freiermuth too!

If you don't keep DeVonta Smith, but get him with your 4th round pick (2nd pick), what would his pick value be next year... 2 (because he was your second pick), 4 (because he was a "4th round pick" this year), or 8 (because you kept 6 and he was your second pick this year)?

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I'm a little unclear on the rules.  is it 5 keepers including your franchise tag or 6 total if you use the tag?  Also, using the franchise tag means you have to drop the player in the round after them? Meaning if you did opt to use the tag on Keenan Allen, you have to drop Swift?

If that is the case regarding the franchise tag then using it on Kelce is the no brainer. It gets you Kelce and Swift versus only Keenan Allen.  If I am wrong on that, I still use it on Kelce anyway :lol:

 

Tag: Kelce

Keep:  Swift, Ekeler, Hunt, Renfrow

Draft Henry 1st

go heavy WR with your 4th, 6th-9th with a QB mixed in. 

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just to clarify, your keepers were picked in round x.

if you choose to keep them, they count as a draft pick from x-1 unless you use the franchise tag on them.

so if you keep your second round pick it costs you a first round pick next year to keep him.

if you use the franchise on him, he only costs a second (again) but the guy who you drafted in the third round couldnt be kept because he also costs a second. you cannot use the same draft pick twice.  thats the reason the rule is there.

so.....

it is 5 keepers. hes not keeping whoever would be his first round pick and because of that will draft #1 overall.   so no reason to keep someone when you can not keep him and get the first overall pick to get him back (or anyone else who looks better)

fair enough.  

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18 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

I'm a little unclear on the rules.  is it 5 keepers including your franchise tag or 6 total if you use the tag?  Also, using the franchise tag means you have to drop the player in the round after them? Meaning if you did opt to use the tag on Keenan Allen, you have to drop Swift?

If that is the case regarding the franchise tag then using it on Kelce is the no brainer. It gets you Kelce and Swift versus only Keenan Allen.  If I am wrong on that, I still use it on Kelce anyway :lol:

 

Tag: Kelce

Keep:  Swift, Ekeler, Hunt, Renfrow

Draft Henry 1st

go heavy WR with your 4th, 6th-9th with a QB mixed in. 

I think it's keep 5 only.  Where the tag comes in to play, is that while you have to drop that player the following year, you also keep their draft position locked.  Kelce was a 2nd round pick, if he chooses to keep him, he'd be a 1st round pick... but if he tags him, he's stays as a 2nd round pick.  That's why he wouldn't be able to keep Allen who's a 3rd round pick, because then he'd have 2 guys with 2nd round values.

So, I don't think it's Kelce and Swift or Allen... I think he can keep Swift no matter what, it's Kelce or Allen.  If he drops Kelce, then Allen would be his 2nd round pick and Swift would be his 3rd.  If he keeps Kelce, Kelce stays as at Round 2 and Swift is still his 3rd.

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31 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think it's keep 5 only.  Where the tag comes in to play, is that while you have to drop that player the following year, you also keep their draft position locked.  Kelce was a 2nd round pick, if he chooses to keep him, he'd be a 1st round pick... but if he tags him, he's stays as a 2nd round pick.  That's why he wouldn't be able to keep Allen who's a 3rd round pick, because then he'd have 2 guys with 2nd round values.

So, I don't think it's Kelce and Swift or Allen... I think he can keep Swift no matter what, it's Kelce or Allen.  If he drops Kelce, then Allen would be his 2nd round pick and Swift would be his 3rd.  If he keeps Kelce, Kelce stays as at Round 2 and Swift is still his 3rd.

I understand how the tag works in terms of locking in a players round. So I understand that if he locks in Kelce as a 2nd, he can't keep Allen because he wouldn't have the 2nd round pick to spare. 

What I meant was if he used the franchise tag on Allen, instead of Kelce, in order to lock Allen in as a 3rd rounder, he would not be able to keep Swift. Being that Kelce is not worth the 1st overall selection, then it sort of is  Kelce and Swift   or   Allen alone. 

His other option would be to not use the tag on Allen, keeping him as a 2nd, and tag Swift as a 4th... if I understand correctly. 

 

Option 1:  Tagging Kelce and Keeping Swift  =   Henry, Kelce, Swift, 4th round pick

Option 2:  Tagging Swift and keeping Allen  =   Henry, Allen, 3rd round pick, Swift

 

I personally think Kelce and a 4th is more valuable than Allen and a 3rd.  Of course a lot depends on what he projects to be available in rounds 3 and 4 which only he knows based on the likely keepers of his league mates. I can't imagine the WR gap from Allen to whoever he can get in round 4 is bigger than the TE gap from Kelce to who he can get in round 3 (regardless of position)

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On 7/15/2022 at 8:17 PM, weepaws said:

I’m not a te person, but I would keep Kelce, Swift, Ekeler, Hunt, Renfro. 

OP their you go. 

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another option:   and I'm not endorsing this at this point but I got thinking and it may be worth considering......

Kelce has an ADP of #14 last I checked.  (so early 2nd round pick)

if using the franchise tag, you are effectively taking him in the 2nd round instead of the first.   but the market is clearly saying hes not worth a first.

you could take a chance and not keep Kelce.  by doing so, you would regain your second round pick.   you might be able to take kelce anyways.  an earlier post suggested that 

though I do not know if you guys run a serpentine draft or not.  if you do, then your chances of getting him back may not be good if you start with the #1 overall pick to take Henry.

but if you dont have a serpentine draft, what are the odds he will be sitting there when you make your second round pick anyways?

just food for thought.   why waste a franchise tag on a player you might be able to get back at the draft table.   Its a calculated risk but I truly dont think he goes in the first round and may not go in the first half of round 2 (based on his age, he shouldnt but thats not the way things always go)

either way, if its not a serpentine draft this is potentially a legit strategy you could roll the dice with.   Then you could keep the other TE or another WR and then just take Kelce in round 2 when the draft comes back to you. You said kittle is likely to be available.....  if you end up with Kittle instead of Kelce is it the end of the world?   chances are very good you'd get one of them if you didnt keep Kelce and then you could franchise someone else.

I'm thinking most of the teams with draft picks at this point in the draft are likely teams that were non playoff teams.  they wont be going after Kelce.  he wont be around by the time they finish their rebuild.    obviously this is a know your league thing as I dont know the full situation with other teams and such but I'm betting you likely know who most teams will be keeping so you have a good idea as to whether this is gonna work or not.   But I do think it might be worth looking into.   it may not be worth your while, but I think its important to do your due diligence on this.   if it works out it could be a difference making move.

I cant evaluate the risks without seeing the rest of your league rosters and likely keepers, but you can.   if you are willing to do your research and look at the other rosters, you may find your odds of getting Kelce back may actually be good.

 

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1 hour ago, WhiteWonder said:

I understand how the tag works in terms of locking in a players round. So I understand that if he locks in Kelce as a 2nd, he can't keep Allen because he wouldn't have the 2nd round pick to spare. 

What I meant was if he used the franchise tag on Allen, instead of Kelce, in order to lock Allen in as a 3rd rounder, he would not be able to keep Swift. Being that Kelce is not worth the 1st overall selection, then it sort of is  Kelce and Swift   or   Allen alone. 

His other option would be to not use the tag on Allen, keeping him as a 2nd, and tag Swift as a 4th... if I understand correctly. 

 

Option 1:  Tagging Kelce and Keeping Swift  =   Henry, Kelce, Swift, 4th round pick

Option 2:  Tagging Swift and keeping Allen  =   Henry, Allen, 3rd round pick, Swift

 

I personally think Kelce and a 4th is more valuable than Allen and a 3rd.  Of course a lot depends on what he projects to be available in rounds 3 and 4 which only he knows based on the likely keepers of his league mates. I can't imagine the WR gap from Allen to whoever he can get in round 4 is bigger than the TE gap from Kelce to who he can get in round 3 (regardless of position)

From that perspective, I can see it... but I don't think he HAS to use the tag.  Looks to be optional. 

I go back to my first post... keep Allen (2), Swift (3), Ekeler (5 - maybe tag him and keep him at 6), Freiermuth (14), and Renfrow (15).

So, he'd have Henry, Allen, Swift, 4th, 5th, Ekeler.

Ekeler seems to be the best deal of the bunch at 6.  He'll play this year at age 27... next year at 28.  In 2019, he got 1500 total yards and got hurt in 2020.  In 2021, he got 1500 total yards again.  History says that he'll get hurt.  But, because you can't just cut him and have to keep him, he's the perfect guy to tag... because if he does make it through this season and he puts up another 1500 total yard season, he's more likely to get hurt next year.

In the past, Kelce has been a difference maker.  I personally don't think he'll be that this year.  To pay the price of a 2nd round pick for a TE who isn't a difference maker is a bit of overpay to me.  This part is my opinion though.  If he or anyone thinks otherwise, that's cool.

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18 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

From that perspective, I can see it... but I don't think he HAS to use the tag.  Looks to be optional. 

I go back to my first post... keep Allen (2), Swift (3), Ekeler (5 - maybe tag him and keep him at 6), Freiermuth (14), and Renfrow (15).

So, he'd have Henry, Allen, Swift, 4th, 5th, Ekeler.

Ekeler seems to be the best deal of the bunch at 6.  He'll play this year at age 27... next year at 28.  In 2019, he got 1500 total yards and got hurt in 2020.  In 2021, he got 1500 total yards again.  History says that he'll get hurt.  But, because you can't just cut him and have to keep him, he's the perfect guy to tag... because if he does make it through this season and he puts up another 1500 total yard season, he's more likely to get hurt next year.

In the past, Kelce has been a difference maker.  I personally don't think he'll be that this year.  To pay the price of a 2nd round pick for a TE who isn't a difference maker is a bit of overpay to me.  This part is my opinion though.  If he or anyone thinks otherwise, that's cool.

Kelce routinely goes late round 1, early round 2 in redrafts. He was a difference make last year, albeit maybe not to the lofty expectations of his owners and actually ended up behind Andrews, but he ended up be as safe a first round pick as could be. Mahomes is still there and KC looks to have added enough receivers to keep defenses from simply taking Kelce out of games... I think he will be relied on more than ever. 

 

I would rather have him at a 2nd round price and keep Ekeler as a 5th than lose out on Kelce and have Friermuth with Ekeler as a 6th. Ekeler is great value either way. Sure, as a 6th he's more value but it's not like we are talking about a multiple round difference. 

 

another important factor, as already mentioned is which players will be in the draft pool. I have a feeling there will be far more WR talent in the draft than anything else. If Kittle winds up being the best available TE (i saw him mentioned earlier), and you don't have a 2nd or 3rd round pick, you're likely not getting him with so many players already off the board. If Dalton Shultz isn't available either you're now past the TE's I think can win you weeks like Kelce can. 

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10 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Kelce routinely goes late round 1, early round 2 in redrafts. He was a difference make last year, albeit maybe not to the lofty expectations of his owners and actually ended up behind Andrews, but he ended up be as safe a first round pick as could be. Mahomes is still there and KC looks to have added enough receivers to keep defenses from simply taking Kelce out of games... I think he will be relied on more than ever. 

 

I would rather have him at a 2nd round price and keep Ekeler as a 5th than lose out on Kelce and have Friermuth with Ekeler as a 6th. Ekeler is great value either way. Sure, as a 6th he's more value but it's not like we are talking about a multiple round difference. 

 

another important factor, as already mentioned is which players will be in the draft pool. I have a feeling there will be far more WR talent in the draft than anything else. If Kittle winds up being the best available TE (i saw him mentioned earlier), and you don't have a 2nd or 3rd round pick, you're likely not getting him with so many players already off the board. If Dalton Shultz isn't available either you're now past the TE's I think can win you weeks like Kelce can. 

if he does not keep Kelce, he will have a 2nd round pick.

to that end, he may drop Kelce and end up with Kittle instead.   its one scenario that I actually wouldnt mind if I were in the shoes of the original poster.

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2 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

if he does not keep Kelce, he will have a 2nd round pick.

to that end, he may drop Kelce and end up with Kittle instead.   its one scenario that I actually wouldnt mind if I were in the shoes of the original poster.

He wouldn't have a second round pick because the scenario I was responding to had him keeping Keenan Allen, which would cost a 2nd round pick.... with a franchise tag on Ekeler for a 6th.

in order to keep his 2nd round pick free, he would have to franchise Keenan Allen, which means he can't keep Swift... which wouldnt make sense to do.

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22 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Kelce routinely goes late round 1, early round 2 in redrafts. He was a difference make last year, albeit maybe not to the lofty expectations of his owners and actually ended up behind Andrews, but he ended up be as safe a first round pick as could be. Mahomes is still there and KC looks to have added enough receivers to keep defenses from simply taking Kelce out of games... I think he will be relied on more than ever. 

 

I would rather have him at a 2nd round price and keep Ekeler as a 5th than lose out on Kelce and have Friermuth with Ekeler as a 6th. Ekeler is great value either way. Sure, as a 6th he's more value but it's not like we are talking about a multiple round difference. 

 

another important factor, as already mentioned is which players will be in the draft pool. I have a feeling there will be far more WR talent in the draft than anything else. If Kittle winds up being the best available TE (i saw him mentioned earlier), and you don't have a 2nd or 3rd round pick, you're likely not getting him with so many players already off the board. If Dalton Shultz isn't available either you're now past the TE's I think can win you weeks like Kelce can. 

Yeah, that's fair... I just think Kelce comes back to the pack.  I think KC's offense will still be good, but not as good.  Kelce may be relied on more, but the defenses will key in on him more too.  There aren't any other pass catchers on that team that need to be feared like Hill was.  I think most defenses are going to say, "we're taking Kelce away from you... who are you going to beat us with"?  I'm not so sure KC has that answer yet.

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1 hour ago, WhiteWonder said:

He wouldn't have a second round pick because the scenario I was responding to had him keeping Keenan Allen, which would cost a 2nd round pick.... with a franchise tag on Ekeler for a 6th.

in order to keep his 2nd round pick free, he would have to franchise Keenan Allen, which means he can't keep Swift... which wouldnt make sense to do.

ok you are right. sorry. got mixed up in my scenarios.

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Yeah, that's fair... I just think Kelce comes back to the pack.  I think KC's offense will still be good, but not as good.  Kelce may be relied on more, but the defenses will key in on him more too.  There aren't any other pass catchers on that team that need to be feared like Hill was.  I think most defenses are going to say, "we're taking Kelce away from you... who are you going to beat us with"?  I'm not so sure KC has that answer yet.

I agree.  it may be tough sledding unless they prove they can beat teams  with someone not named Kelce.

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24 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I agree.  it may be tough sledding unless they prove they can beat teams  with someone not named Kelce.

Yeah, that's why I say to let Kelce go and keep Allen instead.  Kelce might still be top 5, but he may be #5...  someone like Hockenson could be #7, taken in the 8th or 9th round, and get only 1 less point per game.  I'd rather have Hockenson (for example), and Keenan Allen (plus two picks at 4 & 5) then Ekeler, than Kelce and Allen Robinson (for example) & one pick at 4, Ekeler, then a pick at 6.

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On 7/15/2022 at 8:17 PM, weepaws said:

I’m not a te person, but I would keep Kelce, Swift, Ekeler, Hunt, Renfro. 

 

6 hours ago, weepaws said:

OP their you go. 

 

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19 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Yeah, that's why I say to let Kelce go and keep Allen instead.  Kelce might still be top 5, but he may be #5...  someone like Hockenson could be #7, taken in the 8th or 9th round, and get only 1 less point per game.  I'd rather have Hockenson (for example), and Keenan Allen (plus two picks at 4 & 5) then Ekeler, than Kelce and Allen Robinson (for example) & one pick at 4, Ekeler, then a pick at 6.

very possible even likely.

that said, the detroit offense has an improved line and the offense and team as a whole looks like it will be better.  usually that means better news for the offensive players.

I wouldnt be surprised to see Hock put up top 5 numbers if he stays healthy.

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19 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I agree.  it may be tough sledding unless they prove they can beat teams  with someone not named Kelce.

That’s why I would keep Kelce. Ppr last season he avg 16 points per game, he should be able to reach that or top it.

Thats five more points per game over Hockensen, who might even see a dip in production based on the new talent, and it’s not the Lions have a Qb like Brady to feed everyone.  

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4 hours ago, weepaws said:

That’s why I would keep Kelce. Ppr last season he avg 16 points per game, he should be able to reach that or top it.

Thats five more points per game over Hockensen, who might even see a dip in production based on the new talent, and it’s not the Lions have a Qb like Brady to feed everyone.  

fair enough.  but most TE's get covered by a LB.    Kelce is good enough they need to stick a DB on him.  usually thats the second best DB on the opposing team because Tyreek got the best DB on him and sometimes Tyreek got double covered too.

With Kelce unless another player emerges to be the lead dog then Kelce gets that top corner and/or double coverages.   hes also one year older and on the wrong side of the age 30.

I think he gets targetted the same or maybe slightly more but the catch rate goes down a bit.

in the end, I think he has a decline in stats.   probably not a large decline, but a decline nonetheless.

I agree hes likely top 5.   not 100% sure hes top 3 anymore.   he might be top 3, but its no longer a sure thing.

Love the player, but hes hitting that age and the situation isnt ideal anymore.   there will be some slippage.   Not through any fault of his own.  but slippage is slippage.

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Yeah I’m not buying less production. 

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