Marquise Brown Projection Seems Low?

[Matt Mueller 146]

65-864-4

 

I could see the receptions and yards hitting but 4 tds seems low.  

 

Kirk had 5 and 6 the past couple years and that was without Dhop missing scheduled time.  

 

I thought maybe he might have a chance to break out early.  I could see him getting lost in a shuffle possibly by midseason if Dhop, Ertz, Connor ect all stay healthy but at the same time the rest of the WR room doesnt seem that great.  Seems like he should be a staple out there.

 

 

[Matt Mueller 146]

Brown is projected for 4, Dhop 6, Ronald Moore 3, Aj Green 2

Thats 15 TDs to WRs for Murray?  

Ertz gets 5.  Running backs get 5.  

 

For a total of Murrays projected 25.  

 

IDK I think the WRS will get more overall.  

[Ray_T 587]

1 hour ago, Matt Mueller said:

65-864-4

 

I could see the receptions and yards hitting but 4 tds seems low.  

 

Kirk had 5 and 6 the past couple years and that was without Dhop missing scheduled time.  

 

I thought maybe he might have a chance to break out early.  I could see him getting lost in a shuffle possibly by midseason if Dhop, Ertz, Connor ect all stay healthy but at the same time the rest of the WR room doesnt seem that great.  Seems like he should be a staple out there.

 

 

I agree it does seem a bit low.

one thing I have noticed... when there is a change of team the assumption of most fantasy sites(including this one) is that there will be an adjustment period before the player establishes chemistry with the team around him.

this may be true most often, but there is already a familiarity with the QB and for me that is half the battle.

I'd be projecting him closer to last years stats with the potential for some upside beyond that because the new QB is better than the old.

one thing for certain, I like this guy at his ADP.

 

[weepaws 2,450]

He’s avg 7 tds a season with the Ravens, mm I think four is a tough one, when Hopkins returns will reduce M Browns stats, plus I think R Moore will contribute more, and plus Murray is going to stumble this season imo. 

Four sounds about right with all that other talent onboard. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

Oops.  My bad.  Sorry.  All these guys with the same color name.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

As far as projections go, when it comes to service outlets, I don't pay as much attention to the actual numbers as I do to the separation of talent.  For example, last year... I even made note of it on the board, to think that Brady was going to throw less than 600 passes was laughable.  I even predicted that he'd throw about 680... he threw 712.  At least this year they're up to 622, which I think is still about 100 attempts too low, but that's besides the point.  The point being, how does the project relate to the other receivers.  Looks like they're projecting a fairly evenly divided passing game.

The projection is also based on Murray throwing 534 passes (and AZ totaling at 589).  Last year, Murray was on pace to throw 584 passes, which isn't even 10 less than what the Cardinals passers as a team had last year.  I mean, if you think that Murray's going to stay healthy and throw many 100 more passes than projected, you could be talking about an 80/1050/7 season for Brown.

I will say though, I expect Hopkins and Ertz to be the two big target guys in AZ.  "IF" they're healthy, I can Brown actually struggling to hit that projection.

[Ray_T 587]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

you could be talking about an 80/1050/7 season for Brown.

I think I had brown for around 1000 yards (give or take) with similar TD's so I think you and I are close to being on the same page (on this issue at least)

I May yet tweak my projections up if the early reports on him are good.   But I generally feel pretty good about this for him.   Normally being moved from a #1 WR into a #2 role is bad for a WR but in this case hes moving into an offense where they throw a whole lot more than his previous team, so they can support another 1000 yard guy.  Hes also the #1 guy for the first few games while Hopkins serves his suspension.

I also think the QB here(Murray) is better at throwing the ball than Jackson so I think the catch % goes up a bit too.   So numbers approaching last years numbers are not unrealistic.

I guess we shall see.  Maybe I like him this year more than a lot of others do.

 

[WhiteWonder 2,170]

i tend to look at rankings and make my own rankings without regard to projecting stats

 

but i do agree that seems low for Brown. Brown went to an upgraded passing offense, with (imo) a more accurate QB, and was traded for. With Hopkins set to miss a decent amount of time, Brown is someone I am high on this year.

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

2 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

i tend to look at rankings and make my own rankings without regard to projecting stats

 

but i do agree that seems low for Brown. Brown went to an upgraded passing offense, with (imo) a more accurate QB, and was traded for. With Hopkins set to miss a decent amount of time, Brown is someone I am high on this year.

Some questions...

1. Does Arizona really have a better passing game?
   • Last year, AZ threw the ball 591 times (completing 415 for 4619 yards).  Baltimore threw it 611 times (completing 396 for 4267 yards).
2. Was Jackson the main reason why Brown's numbers weren't better?
   • Last year, Mark Andrews had 16 more receptions, 353 more yards, and 3 more TD's than Brown, on just 7 more targets.  It's not like Brown was running all these deep routes.  His aDOT was 10.5 yards... Andrews' was 10.1 yards.
3. Will Brown actually see more/better targets?
   • Brown was the Co-#1 target option in Baltimore where they were really the only two.  In AZ, he's at best the #2 option, at worst the #3 behind Hopkins and Ertz (who saw over 7 targets a game after being traded there).  That's not even counting the presence of Moore and Green.

[jrokh 567]

12 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Some questions...

1. Does Arizona really have a better passing game?
   • Last year, AZ threw the ball 591 times (completing 415 for 4619 yards).  Baltimore threw it 611 times (completing 396 for 4267 yards).
2. Was Jackson the main reason why Brown's numbers weren't better?
   • Last year, Mark Andrews had 16 more receptions, 353 more yards, and 3 more TD's than Brown, on just 7 more targets.  It's not like Brown was running all these deep routes.  His aDOT was 10.5 yards... Andrews' was 10.1 yards.
3. Will Brown actually see more/better targets?
   • Brown was the Co-#1 target option in Baltimore where they were really the only two.  In AZ, he's at best the #2 option, at worst the #3 behind Hopkins and Ertz (who saw over 7 targets a game after being traded there).  That's not even counting the presence of Moore and Green.

The first 6 games he’ll see loads more targets as the #1 with a familiar QB. So yeah overall he will see more and better targets.

[WhiteWonder 2,170]

39 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Some questions...

1. Does Arizona really have a better passing game?
   • Last year, AZ threw the ball 591 times (completing 415 for 4619 yards).  Baltimore threw it 611 times (completing 396 for 4267 yards).
2. Was Jackson the main reason why Brown's numbers weren't better?
   • Last year, Mark Andrews had 16 more receptions, 353 more yards, and 3 more TD's than Brown, on just 7 more targets.  It's not like Brown was running all these deep routes.  His aDOT was 10.5 yards... Andrews' was 10.1 yards.
3. Will Brown actually see more/better targets?
   • Brown was the Co-#1 target option in Baltimore where they were really the only two.  In AZ, he's at best the #2 option, at worst the #3 behind Hopkins and Ertz (who saw over 7 targets a game after being traded there).  That's not even counting the presence of Moore and Green.

1. As your stats suggest, Arizona was the more efficient offense. Better completion % and more yards on fewer attempts. 

2. Possibly not the main reason, but Mark Andrews is a more reliable pass catcher... no one is going to argue that. I would also guess that Brown ran more overall deep routes (coupled with bubble screens, quick slants etc). 

3. Yes, Brown should see more targets. With Hopkins out, Brown is their most talented pass catcher... which wasn't the case with Andrews on the field. I would not have called Brown the co-#1.  I think he was the clear 2. Brown will be the #1 until Hopkins gets back on the field. Then he will be the #2/2B once Hopkins returns.  the presence of Moore and Green doesn't mean much to me at this point. It's comparable to the presence of Bateman and Duvernay.  Sure, Green has experience but he is more or less toast

[Ray_T 587]

25 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Sure, Green has experience but he is more or less toast

I agree.   I dont see him taking a lot of passes away from the top 2 WR in this offense.

[weepaws 2,450]

Mmm I’m not so sure that his target load is has high as some thing.  

I think Murray will be using more options with Hopkins out for the first six games.  

He still has Ertz and D Williams who was pretty good in both the run game and passing game with KC.  

R Moore I think should improve in his second season.  

A Green is like said above toast.  

[Matt Mueller 146]

Some good points on are Cardinals better passing offense ect 

 

To the point was Jackson the reason that Browns numbers weren’t better.

Jackson kind of made Brown.   Before Jackson got hurt in week 10 Brown number 6 in total WR points 

He was 7th in PPG

Jackson throws a really nice deep ball and had a great connection 

maybe Murray can’t replicate that but if he could be a top 10 WR through 10 weeks on the Ravens I think it’s possible for the same type of hit early with the Cardinals 

 

a lot depends on Kyler and play calling possibly 

 

[Matt Mueller 146]

Through week 10 with Jackson

52 catches 719 yards 6 Tds

[craftsman 1,045]

How does Marquis Brown have a non-football related hamstring injury that lists him as 'out'?

Did he get hurt in yoga class or something? 

[weepaws 2,450]

I think that Murray has more options then Jackson , that might limited Browns production.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

1 hour ago, Matt Mueller said:

Some good points on are Cardinals better passing offense ect 

 

To the point was Jackson the reason that Browns numbers weren’t better.

Jackson kind of made Brown.   Before Jackson got hurt in week 10 Brown number 6 in total WR points 

He was 7th in PPG

Jackson throws a really nice deep ball and had a great connection 

maybe Murray can’t replicate that but if he could be a top 10 WR through 10 weeks on the Ravens I think it’s possible for the same type of hit early with the Cardinals 

 

a lot depends on Kyler and play calling possibly 

 

 

1 hour ago, Matt Mueller said:

Through week 10 with Jackson

52 catches 719 yards 6 Tds

Yes, this is where I'm at.  I think Jackson and Brown's skill sets clicked and I'm not so sure he will click with Murray.  Last year when Hopkins was on the field, AZ's offense was way better and more efficient than when he wasn't.  Hopkins played 10 games last year... Kirk all 17, yet Kirk had only 103 targets.  I mean, do people think Brown is a big improvement over Kirk?  I don't.  I don't even think he's an improvement.  At best, it's a push.  Kirk was WR26 last year.  I'm thinking that's about where Brown will be.

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

On 7/25/2022 at 1:44 PM, Matt Mueller said:

Kirk had 5 and 6 the past couple years and that was without Dhop missing scheduled time.

Hopkins missed 7 games last year and Kirk only had 5 TD's... of those 5, Kirk only had 1 in the 7 games Hopkins missed.  In the 10 games Hopkins played last year, Kirk averaged 11.6 fpg, in the other 7, he averaged 12.6.

I think that's more of a Murry issue than a Kirk issue.  But that's just me.

[weepaws 2,450]

3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

 

Yes, this is where I'm at.  I think Jackson and Brown's skill sets clicked and I'm not so sure he will click with Murray.  Last year when Hopkins was on the field, AZ's offense was way better and more efficient than when he wasn't.  Hopkins played 10 games last year... Kirk all 17, yet Kirk had only 103 targets.  I mean, do people think Brown is a big improvement over Kirk?  I don't.  I don't even think he's an improvement.  At best, it's a push.  Kirk was WR26 last year.  I'm thinking that's about where Brown will be.

Mmm that’s a tough one, I think Brown is a little bit of an upgrade over Kirk, Kirk right now is a tough one for me to rank, I’m so sure he’s a true wr1, Brown has been, even though he was option #2 with the Ravens.  

[Ray_T 587]

28 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Mmm that’s a tough one, I think Brown is a little bit of an upgrade over Kirk, Kirk right now is a tough one for me to rank, I’m so sure he’s a true wr1, Brown has been, even though he was option #2 with the Ravens.  

Kirk is not a #1. 

Hes a #2 who can perform if the situation/QB is good.

I guess what it comes down to is where is Trevor Lawrence at?   I question his ability to get open against the #1 corner on a good defense but I guess we are about to find out because right now hes looking like the #1 WR in Jaxonville.

[weepaws 2,450]

8 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

Kirk is not a #1. 

Hes a #2 who can perform if the situation/QB is good.

I guess what it comes down to is where is Trevor Lawrence at?   I question his ability to get open against the #1 corner on a good defense but I guess we are about to find out because right now hes looking like the #1 WR in Jaxonville.

Lol he better hurry up, they paid him a ton of money. 

[Ray_T 587]

1 minute ago, weepaws said:

Lol he better hurry up, they paid him a ton of money. 

yeah, well with the money they paid him, he better perform.   Thats the kind of deal that gets a GM fired if it doesnt pan out.

Lots of money.  lots of term

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Mmm that’s a tough one, I think Brown is a little bit of an upgrade over Kirk, Kirk right now is a tough one for me to rank, I’m so sure he’s a true wr1, Brown has been, even though he was option #2 with the Ravens.  

Yeah, I think this is where the discussion is at.  Is Brown an actual NFL WR1 or not?  I'm not so sure that he is.  Like I said earlier, I think his strengths match well with Jackson's and that's why they clicked.  The thing is, Lamar Jackson isn't really a model that other QB's follow.  I don't know that Murray is either for that matter (I mean, he could be another Drew Brees, we'll see).  If I were to side with a WR, I'd go with the guy with the better passing pedigree.  I'm taking Kirk with Lawrence... especially since he's "the guy" on a team with limited options and a QB who might throw the ball 680 times.  Brown is "a guy" on a team with a lot of options and a QB who may only throw the ball 620 times.

[Ray_T 587]

as compared to the 570 pass attempts last year in Baltimore? 

still an upgrade in terms of volume.

[weepaws 2,450]

Kirk Vs M Brown should be a interesting battle half ppr.  

Must give Brown the first 6 games , but once Hopkins returns those next 11 should be when Kirk catches up.  

Tough one for me to pick.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

Just now, Ray_T said:

as compared to the 570 pass attempts last year in Baltimore? 

still an upgrade in terms of volume.

No, Baltimore threw the ball 20 more times last year than Arizona, 611 to 591.  The biggest difference was that AZ actually completed 19 more passes.  So Brown is going from a 611 pass attempt team where he was 1 of 2 primary targets (got 146 last year), to a team who threw the ball 591 times and he'll be 1 of 4 primary targets.  Brown is going down in volume, but higher in efficiency.  The thing is, the difference isn't drastic when you take into account the other options.

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

17 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Kirk Vs M Brown should be a interesting battle half ppr.  

Must give Brown the first 6 games , but once Hopkins returns those next 11 should be when Kirk catches up.  

Tough one for me to pick.  

Right now, Brown is going off the board as WR23 at #62 overall and Kirk is going off the board as WR43 at #114 overall, in half ppr (according to this).  At those prices, I think Kirk is a way better value.  I will say though, I expect Brown to be in that general vicinity (WR23), a little lower, but certainly in that ball park.  I'd take him in R6 as my 3rd WR (expecting that my first 5 picks are 3 RB's and 2 WR's).  But, I'd certainly be willing to pass him over for a better value at that spot knowing that I could possibly get Kirk about 4 rounds later and get similar production.

[Ray_T 587]

12 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

No, Baltimore threw the ball 20 more times last year than Arizona, 611 to 591.  The biggest difference was that AZ actually completed 19 more passes.  So Brown is going from a 611 pass attempt team where he was 1 of 2 primary targets (got 146 last year), to a team who threw the ball 591 times and he'll be 1 of 4 primary targets.  Brown is going down in volume, but higher in efficiency.  The thing is, the difference isn't drastic when you take into account the other options.

sorry miscounted on the throws.  my bad

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

23 hours ago, jrokh said:

The first 6 games he’ll see loads more targets as the #1 with a familiar QB. So yeah overall he will see more and better targets.

I don't know about that.  Hopkins missed 7 games last year and Kirk only saw 103 targets.  Brown saw 146 last year.  In Ertz's last 7 games, he was on pace to have almost as many targets as Andrews did in Baltimore last year.  Murray loved throwing to Ertz and Hopkins is a much better receiver.  I don't see how Brown gets more than 120 targets.  Last year, he caught 62.3% of the passes thrown his way for 11.1 yards per reception.  Let's say he catches 67% for 12.5 yards, because Murray's a better passer... 120 targets puts him at 81 receptions for 1012 yards... which is a bit less than what he had last year.

Meh, they played together 1 year at Oklahoma.  That year, he had Cee Dee Lamb opposite him.

[Super Cubs 132]

I bought in on the Hollywood hype in 2020 and never again.  65-865-4 about right, maybe a little high. 

[jrokh 567]

43 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I don't know about that.  Hopkins missed 7 games last year and Kirk only saw 103 targets.  Brown saw 146 last year.  In Ertz's last 7 games, he was on pace to have almost as many targets as Andrews did in Baltimore last year.  Murray loved throwing to Ertz and Hopkins is a much better receiver.  I don't see how Brown gets more than 120 targets.  Last year, he caught 62.3% of the passes thrown his way for 11.1 yards per reception.  Let's say he catches 67% for 12.5 yards, because Murray's a better passer... 120 targets puts him at 81 receptions for 1012 yards... which is a bit less than what he had last year.

Meh, they played together 1 year at Oklahoma.  That year, he had Cee Dee Lamb opposite him.

In the first 6 games Hollywood will be a top 12 Wr. My first prediction of the season. 

[WhiteWonder 2,170]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

No, Baltimore threw the ball 20 more times last year than Arizona, 611 to 591.  The biggest difference was that AZ actually completed 19 more passes.  So Brown is going from a 611 pass attempt team where he was 1 of 2 primary targets (got 146 last year), to a team who threw the ball 591 times and he'll be 1 of 4 primary targets.  Brown is going down in volume, but higher in efficiency.  The thing is, the difference isn't drastic when you take into account the other options.

Who are the 4 primary targets? Hopkins when he gets back (which is a big factor that boosts Brown), Ertz, Brown himself and…… 

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

7 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Who are the 4 primary targets? Hopkins when he gets back (which is a big factor that boosts Brown), Ertz, Brown himself and…… 

Moore & Green.  They combined for over 150 targets last year.  While I expect Green's numbers to go down, I expect Moore's to go up.

[WhiteWonder 2,170]

15 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Moore & Green.  They combined for over 150 targets last year.  While I expect Green's numbers to go down, I expect Moore's to go up.

I don’t view either as a primary target. Greens days as that are done. Moore could but has a lot to prove to be considered a primary target. 
 

A player commanding 140-150 targets would be a primary target but we cant just mush the two together lol. 

[Ray_T 587]

2 hours ago, jrokh said:

In the first 6 games Hollywood will be a top 12 Wr. My first prediction of the season. 

one I fully agree with.

Once hopkins returns, thats when the challenge in predicting his numbers gets crazy.   Nobody knows just how that split will work once he returns.

Brown could fall off, or keep going or somewhere in between.

[jrokh 567]

4 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

one I fully agree with.

Once hopkins returns, thats when the challenge in predicting his numbers gets crazy.   Nobody knows just how that split will work once he returns.

Brown could fall off, or keep going or somewhere in between.

agreed. Hence, I am only predicting the non-D-Hop portion of the season.

[weepaws 2,450]

I agree that Kirk is the better value based on adp over M Brown, I still say Brown should be the better ff producer the first six games imo.  

So that’s what makes a pick between the two of them a tough one for me, once Hopkins returns how much of a hit in ff production does M Brown take.  

I do think R Moore will have a larger role this season , his second in that system.  

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

12 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

I don’t view either as a primary target. Greens days as that are done. Moore could but has a lot to prove to be considered a primary target. 
 

A player commanding 140-150 targets would be a primary target but we cant just mush the two together lol. 

Poor choice of words on my part.  I'm pretty much talking about guys who you can expect to be regular route runners and get targets.... so some one who will get at least 3 or 4 targets every game and ends up with 45 to 50 by years end   Not the random guy who gets 1 or 2 every other or third week and ends up with like 15 to 20 targets,

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

14 hours ago, jrokh said:

In the first 6 games Hollywood will be a top 12 Wr. My first prediction of the season. 

It's possible.  I don't think so, but it wouldn't shock me.