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Julio Jones signs with Tampa Bay

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In other Bucs wide receiver news...

I'd caution folks on assuming that this means Godwin will be ready for Week 1.

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Well, one thing that people won't have to worry about with Jones is that if you have Evans, Godwin, or Gage... you're TD's are safe.

 

Will be interesting to see if the Bucs are paying him to be an insurance policy on depth until Godwin is ready to go or if they actually expect him to contribute.  When the team is full-go, I'd say that Jones is WR4 on the depth chart behind Godwin, Evans, Gage, and fighting for that spot with Darden, Grayson, and Johnson.  If the cash number is low or there are incentives, I don't expect Jones to make the opening day roster unless Godwin starts on the PUP list.

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I don't expect Jones to make the opening day roster unless Godwin starts on the PUP list.

he got hurt pretty late in the year didnt he?

I think the odds of being on PUP to start the year are not actually that bad.

(thats not a good thing)

Hes a guy who likely wont put up any kind of numbers until the second half of the year.    Even then, I dont think he will be 100% until the start of next season.

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1 hour ago, Mike FF Today said:

One-year deal for the 33 year-old...

 

There aren't a lot of 78-year touchdown passes thrown in the NFL.

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I don’t see much to this move, I mean I don’t him challenging Gage, looks like one of those players Brady just wants to throw a few passes to.  

 

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Remember how Tom Brady resurrected Randy Moss career in New England.

I don't expect that here but I wouldn't be surprised if Julio plays a little better than he has the past couple of seasons

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Mm he avg 6 points per game half ppr, so I’m not sure he can match that.  

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he will put up 3 or 4 good games until he gets hurt.  then he will suck the rest of the year.

but if waiting on Godwin to return and they only need a couple weeks, then perhaps its good enough.

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When Godwin returns , Jones will be a non issue.  And he’ll be a very small issue until Godwin returns. 

Same chat we all had about him last season when he landed with the Titans , and he avg 6 points per game half ppr. 

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15 hours ago, Ray_T said:

he got hurt pretty late in the year didnt he?

I think the odds of being on PUP to start the year are not actually that bad.

(thats not a good thing)

Hes a guy who likely wont put up any kind of numbers until the second half of the year.    Even then, I dont think he will be 100% until the start of next season.

Yeah, in December.  The surgery was January 3rd I believe.  If he can get back on the field in 9 months, that's Sept 3rd, the week before the season starts.  I'll even err on the side of caution and say he doesn't come back until October.  I still don't think Jones makes the opening day roster even if Godwin starts on the PUP list.  I don't think they want to cut Darden, Grayson, or Johnson.  They're certainly not going to cut Evans, Godwin, or Gage.  I think, that if Godwin starts on the PUP list, he doesn't count towards the 53, so it's possible that Jones makes the team if Godwin starts on the PUP list, but I think he rarely plays and is probably cut once Godwin is activated.

Of course, all that goes out the window if they gave him a good chunk of guaranteed money.  I haven't looked for that number yet.  The money is a bigger indication on what they think of their current crop of WR's and Jones.

At this point, I think Jones was only brought in to learn the playbook and get reps with the team, so that if Godwin, Evans, or Gage gets hurt, they can bring him back and not have to worry about getting him up to speed.

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8 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Of course, all that goes out the window if they gave him a good chunk of guaranteed money.

yeah, thats the way it always goes.   lots of guaranteed money means hes likely staying.

the follow the money rule quite often applies in situations like this.   At least for a while.  eventually poor play overrides money but sometimes it takes a while.

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I don’t want to sound like I’m pumping up Julio Jones but…

1. Why is everyone so high on Gage? He was fairly average/inconsistent as Matt Ryan’s #1 in Atlanta 

2. Godwin won’t be 100% come week 1

3. Gronk retired

4. Julio had Tannehill at QB last season. 
 

Just saying in that high powered offense he might be good for some stats for 5-6 games. Or he’s just there chasing that ring. Maybe a bit of both 🤷🏻‍♂️

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12 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

I don’t want to sound like I’m pumping up Julio Jones but…

1. Why is everyone so high on Gage? He was fairly average/inconsistent as Matt Ryan’s #1 in Atlanta 

2. Godwin won’t be 100% come week 1

3. Gronk retired

4. Julio had Tannehill at QB last season. 
 

Just saying in that high powered offense he might be good for some stats for 5-6 games. Or he’s just there chasing that ring. Maybe a bit of both 🤷🏻‍♂️

Gage was the WR1 in Atlanta with a mediocre QB last year and did ok.  He's a WR3 in the NFL.  He'll be that by October in Tampa.

Aside from that, the Bucs are pretty high on Darden (at worst, as a PR/KR), as well as Grayson and Johnson.  Not counting Jones, that's 6 WR's not counting Miller & Perriman.  I'm not even sure Jones makes the opening day roster.

The deal is a $6M base ($0 guaranteed), with a max of $8M with incentives.  I think he's only on the roster until Godwin is cleared unless he proves he's not done.

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1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Gage was the WR1 in Atlanta with a mediocre QB last year and did ok.  He's a WR3 in the NFL.  He'll be that by October in Tampa.

Aside from that, the Bucs are pretty high on Darden (at worst, as a PR/KR), as well as Grayson and Johnson.  Not counting Jones, that's 6 WR's not counting Miller & Perriman.  I'm not even sure Jones makes the opening day roster.

But, as I said earlier, money talks.  If they're giving him any guaranteed money, then he'll stay and most likely play.  If its a low base with incentives, I think he's only on the roster until Godwin is cleared to play.  Could be 1 week or 5... could be none.

He may very well be cut. Though Tom seems to like his proven veterans at this stage in his career. Perriman is nothing. 
 

I wasn’t making a case for him being draft worth or having some bounce back fantasy season. 
 

Just saying. 
 

and I think Gage is overrated. 

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1 hour ago, WhiteWonder said:

I think Gage is overrated. 

he probably is.

how he does in Tampa really depends on how much Julio has left in the tank.

hes serviceable with Brady throwing the rock in the event julio is done.   and he will put up numbers until Godwin is ready to return.  not huge numbers but  likely draftable.

but I think they give Julio his shot first.  if he can still play, he will put up draftable numbers until he gets hurt or until Godwin is ready.

so its really a crapshoot to some degree.

Late round picks or priority waiver wire pickups once we find out what Tampa is doing.   Potentially nice pickups but I'm not sure I'd draft either of them right now.   too many unknowns including how long it will take for Godwin to return.    though considering how late he had his surgery, he may not really be a factor until the fantasy playoffs anyways.

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25 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

he probably is.

how he does in Tampa really depends on how much Julio has left in the tank.

hes serviceable with Brady throwing the rock in the event julio is done.   and he will put up numbers until Godwin is ready to return.  not huge numbers but  likely draftable.

but I think they give Julio his shot first.  if he can still play, he will put up draftable numbers until he gets hurt or until Godwin is ready.

so its really a crapshoot to some degree.

Late round picks or priority waiver wire pickups once we find out what Tampa is doing.   Potentially nice pickups but I'm not sure I'd draft either of them right now.   too many unknowns including how long it will take for Godwin to return.    though considering how late he had his surgery, he may not really be a factor until the fantasy playoffs anyways.

Gage will be drafted in all competitive formats. Julio might be a last round flier in some leagues. 

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On 7/26/2022 at 9:23 PM, weepaws said:

When Godwin returns , Jones will be a non issue.  And he’ll be a very small issue until Godwin returns. 

Same chat we all had about him last season when he landed with the Titans , and he avg 6 points per game half ppr. 

That’s what I think about Jones , I wouldn’t even bother.  

I don’t see a lot of excitement about Gage based on his adp, he should very good numbers with Brady at Qb, and with Godwin out or limited.  

I think Jones is done.  

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12 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

He may very well be cut. Though Tom seems to like his proven veterans at this stage in his career. Perriman is nothing. 
 

I wasn’t making a case for him being draft worth or having some bounce back fantasy season. 
 

Just saying. 
 

and I think Gage is overrated. 

Oh, I think Perriman is getting cut, no doubt... just saying there are 8 other WR's on the team and the Bucs would like to keep almost all of them.  As it were, they were going to have to cut at least 1, if not 2 and If Jones isn't playing up to the level that the other guys are, he's getting cut.

Also, I think you're overstating what people are thinking Gage is.  Don't think anyone ever said he was any better than a WR3.

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2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Oh, I think Perriman is getting cut, no doubt... just saying there are 8 other WR's on the team and the Bucs would like to keep almost all of them.  As it were, they were going to have to cut at least 1, if not 2 and If Jones isn't playing up to the level that the other guys are, he's getting cut.

Also, I think you're overstating what people are thinking Gage is.  Don't think anyone ever said he was any better than a WR3.

agreed.  no better than a WR3 but if he slots into one of those starting spots on a temporary basis until Godwin is ready, his numbers could creep into WR2 territory.  Thats why people are talking about him.

Brady has the ability to do that to him (assuming Brady's good health of course)

what we dont know for sure is whether hes the guy to slot into Godwins spot.

Julio Jones has a 6 M contract with I think 2 M guaranteed (though the website I saw that on may not be 100% reliable)

Gage signed a 3 year 30 M contract with 20 M guaranteed.   

Wow.

if you believe the follow the money theory, I'd say Move over Julio, your the third WR.

That said, Given the name, they perhaps suggested it would be a competition when they signed him    so they may give him a fair shot.

I suspect as we get closer to the regular season we will have a better idea of where these two players stand in the pecking order.

 

 

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Gage is the next up. 

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I hope center R Jensen is okay.  

 

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6 hours ago, Ray_T said:

agreed.  no better than a WR3 but if he slots into one of those starting spots on a temporary basis until Godwin is ready, his numbers could creep into WR2 territory.  Thats why people are talking about him.

Brady has the ability to do that to him (assuming Brady's good health of course)

what we dont know for sure is whether hes the guy to slot into Godwins spot.

Julio Jones has a 6 M contract with I think 2 M guaranteed (though the website I saw that on may not be 100% reliable)

Gage signed a 3 year 30 M contract with 20 M guaranteed.   

Wow.

if you believe the follow the money theory, I'd say Move over Julio, your the third WR.

That said, Given the name, they perhaps suggested it would be a competition when they signed him    so they may give him a fair shot.

I suspect as we get closer to the regular season we will have a better idea of where these two players stand in the pecking order.

Sure, but every projection I've seen is around what I think he'll probably do... if Tampa throws the ball 700 times and Brady completes just 62% (5% worse than last year), of those, that's 434 completions (which is 51 less than last year).  Someone's going to have to catch them.  To think that Gage can catch 70, isn't unreasonable.  Lets say he averages 11 yards per reception, that's 770 yards... throw in 5 TD's for good measure.  That's about what he got last year.  Keep in mind, Gronk and Brown combined for 97/1347/10, and are gone.

FantasyPros (claim they have a consensus of 4 outlets - don't know which), have him projected for 59 / 682 / 5.

ESPN has him at 65 / 720 / 5 

FFToday has him at 56 / 740 / 6

They seem reasonable to me.

 

 

I have to see how Jones does in pre-season before I give him spot in the top 3 (sans Godwin).  I think the Bucs are going to give Johnson and Grayson every chance to grab that spot.

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Sure, but every projection I've seen is around what I think he'll probably do... if Tampa throws the ball 700 times and Brady completes just 62% (5% worse than last year), of those, that's 434 completions (which is 51 less than last year).  Someone's going to have to catch them.  To think that Gage can catch 70, isn't unreasonable.  Lets say he averages 11 yards per reception, that's 770 yards... throw in 5 TD's for good measure.  That's about what he got last year.  Keep in mind, Gronk and Brown combined for 97/1347/10, and are gone.

FantasyPros (claim they have a consensus of 4 outlets - don't know which), have him projected for 59 / 682 / 5.

ESPN has him at 65 / 720 / 5 

FFToday has him at 56 / 740 / 6

They seem reasonable to me.

 

 

I have to see how Jones does in pre-season before I give him spot in the top 3 (sans Godwin).  I think the Bucs are going to give Johnson and Grayson every chance to grab that spot.

well, initially when they signed Jones I thought he was going to be their #2.  but the money clearly states otherwise.   Had I done my digging and saw the size of the Gage contract I would have moved him up on my list a bit more. 

Gage is likely the #2 option in this offense to start the year, and Brate is likely #3.  its even possible Rudolph is #4.

Lots of different directions this team can go.   Brady ran a 2 TE system in NE and when Gronk and Hernandez played together, the pats were nearly unstoppable.   so I wouldnt discount the possibility they feature 2 TE's.

Julio fits in there somewhere.  Just not 100% sure of where at this point.  I suppose it depends how much he has left in the tank.   We will know more as we get closer to week 1. 

Either way I suspect he plays well for 2 or 3 games gets hurt and is mediocre the rest of the year. 

There is also enough talent on the team that he could potentially be cut before week 1 too.   Though the 2M guarantee makes me think they keep him at least partway into the year.

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2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

FantasyPros (claim they have a consensus of 4 outlets - don't know which), have him projected for 59 / 682 / 5.

ESPN has him at 65 / 720 / 5 

FFToday has him at 56 / 740 / 6

They seem reasonable to me.

That's probably assuming he plays the full season.  Account for the weeks he misses due to old man injuries, and it's more like 30/400/2.

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22 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

That's probably assuming he plays the full season.  Account for the weeks he misses due to old man injuries, and it's more like 30/400/2.

That's Gage, not Julio.

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58 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

That's Gage, not Julio.

19 games in the last two seasons. That's Julio.

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10 hours ago, AxeElf said:

19 games in the last two seasons. That's Julio.

Right, but the protections were for Gage, not Jones.

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4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Right, but the protections were for Gage, not Jones.

Ohhhh.

Sorry, missed the hijack.

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