Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
AxeElf

Axe Elf's First 2022 Draft

Recommended Posts

Ceedee should've went for $31 based on league average of 208 per game.  So good value there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the cold hard math and the FFToday projections say you did quite well in the draft and achieved $76 in value for a whopping 21.6% value over expectation.  Congrats 

  Spend Fair Value   Delta from fair value
henry 102 70   -32
taylor 96 73   -23
Ceedee 23 31   8
Keenan 16 26   10
Dobbins 28 38   10
Harris 20 38   18
Godwin 4 20   16
Amon 4 19   15
Marquise 4 15   11
Gesicki 2 12   10
Albert O 2 12   10
Mariota 19 26   7
Trubisky/Pickett 21 37   16
Total 341 417   76

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Your commish only got 23 bucks of extra value

  Spend Fair Value   Delta from fair value
Cook 74 57   -17
Mixon 73 54   -19
Swift 55 40   -15
Aaron Jones 52 40   -12
Mike Evans 21 23   2
Baker 18 21   3
Higgins 15 20   5
Geno Smith 9 14   5
Schultz 7 15   8
Hock 6 14   8
Knox 4 13   9
Cooks 2 19   17
Jeudy 2 18   16
Lazard 1 14   13
Total 339 362   23

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's basically saying that, yes, runningbacks are very important in this league, but because you have to start so many players, you can't spend all of your money on them because they'll be overcome by a deep starting lineup.  Fortunately, you got the best of both worlds thanks to getting good value on other positions.

It looks like the market overcorrected to runningbacks so the profit was actually in the other positions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, AxeElf said:

What if there were no hypothetical situations?

I’m just saying, you tend to use a lot of random “ifs” to make stuff look better. 
“if this was a standard PPR league, Lamb and Allen would have been worth….” Blah blah blah why does that matter? It’s very clearly not a standard PPR league 😂.  Used car salesman stuff. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, nobody said:

the cold hard math and the FFToday projections say you did quite well in the draft and achieved $76 in value for a whopping 21.6% value over expectation.  Congrats 

  Spend Fair Value   Delta from fair value
henry 102 70   -32
taylor 96 73   -23
Ceedee 23 31   8
Keenan 16 26   10
Dobbins 28 38   10
Harris 20 38   18
Godwin 4 20   16
Amon 4 19   15
Marquise 4 15   11
Gesicki 2 12   10
Albert O 2 12   10
Mariota 19 26   7
Trubisky/Pickett 21 37   16
Total 341 417   76

Lotta mumbo jumbo and phantom projections, but the only thing that matters is that I am projected for the most points in Week 1 at 277--and they only have Henry and Taylor at about 45 pts each (125 yards is 42.5 pts all by itself, not even counting attempts and first downs, let alone TDs and 40+ bonuses).

My opponent drafted Mahomes, Murray and Jackson at QB, Zeke, Breece and Mostert at RB, and Pitts and Ertz at TE, leaving his WRs to dangle in the wind as most people have suggested I should have done (Skyy Moore, Garrett Wilson, and Josh Palmer)--and he is projected for the second-fewest points in Week 1 at 214.  In fairness, they did only draft one Defense, the Falcons.

HOWEVER, the team with the fewest points projected for Week 1 at 200 has Brady, Stafford, and Carr at QB; Kupp, Hill, Boyd and Rondale Moore at WR, Kelce and Andrews at TE... and his four RBs are Kenyan Drake, Mark Ingram, James White and Ty Johnson.

You can debate economic price indexes all you want; Axe Elf just kills drafts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, nobody said:

When determining auction values in an odd league like this, I'd do something like this:

  1. Estimate the number of starters at each position
  2. Project total points for all the players in the draft pool
  3. Add up the total number of points expected to be scored in the league using the estimates from steps 1 and 2
  4. Divide the total points projected in the league by the total league auction budget.  For instance in this league, one might predict the league will score around 35000 points total in a 14 week regular season (that's just a SWAG based on teams averaging around 200ish points per game), and the budget is $4212 (351 x 12 teams)
  5. Average dollar per point is now 4212/35000 = 0.12
  6. Multiply projected dollar per point by projected points per player and you should have a pretty good idea what they should go for.

So let's say you think Henry should average 50 points a game for 14 weeks.  That's 700*.12 = $84 fair value for Henry.  

Now the tricky part is we need to be tweaking that dollar per point number by some fudge factor throughout the draft to account for draft inefficiencies.  This fudge factor should change based on how cheap or expensive players are going at any one point in the draft relative to fair value.  For instance maybe you can start at 0 adjustment and if guys are going cheap, you'll need to spend a little more on future players until people start spending too much to allow you to spend less.  Pretty easy spreadsheet to make.  Every time a player goes too cheap the discount goes into the total league budget and of course, if someone goes too expensive, that delta above fair value should come out of the league budget.

This is a good post.

and its true.  but people usually pay a premium for the top talent and the bottom end talent is usually a bargain based on fantasy points per $ spent.

Thats because there is a bare bottom value which I'll say is the waiver wire value (valued at zero) from there the points go up based on a calculation similar to yours.

I do totally see where you are coming from though.   I'll also point out projected points for starters vs projected points for backups on a per game basis also will differ.

Either way I wasnt about to do that calculation as I am on vacation in the mountans and dont have my spreadsheets with me to run the numbers.  I just did an estimate in my head based on the bonuses.  its not hard to see the bonus for RB is huge.   Thats a given and Axe did a nice job on his RB's in my opinion regardless of the $ per point.  he will have a huge positional advantage at RB.  no doubt about that.   its mostly a matter of whether the disadvantage at other positions makes  up for the advantage at RB.   hes definitely losing at QB.  At WR based on conventional predictions he will do okay but I do think some of his low money picks may pan out so this could turn out to be a strength.  At TE he looks below average but Gesecki has perhaps more upside than his ADP shows.   he could end up being average there.  hard to say for sure.

but at QB hes looking like he losing a bunch.      I dont have a spreadsheet at my fingertips to do a prediction  but I like my earlier one.  

Playoffs yes.   Championship No.

not without one other key impact move.  either a QB who steps up, or a trade for an upgrade at QB and a priority Wire pickup who pans out might be enough to push him into contending for the title.

but the draft alone wont get him there.  I'm reasonably sure of that.

That said it is a long season, and strange things can happen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Y'all seem to be acting like there's any kind of doubt as to whether good RBs and poor QBs can overcome good QBs and poor RBs.  My opponent this week is even better off than that--he has good QBs and semi-solid RBs with poor WRs.  Let's see how we stack up in projected Yahoo fantasy points, position by position:

I am making no judgment calls on lineups, these are purely the players with the most Yahoo-projected points in Week 1--the optimal lineups assuming projection accuracy.

QB Jackson 36.21   Mariota 24.84  
QB Murray 33.21   Trubisky 21.07  
SFLEX Mahomes 30.69   MBrown 13.54  
    100.11     59.45

-40.66

Marquise Brown is projected higher than my other two RBs (Edwards and DWilliams) in Week 1, so this is my worst nightmare--having to Superflex a WR--right?!?!

Yep, it's left him with about 100 points from those three slots, and me in a 40 point hole!

RB Elliott 28.20   Taylor 47.34  
RB BHall 21.04   Henry 45.80  
    49.24     93.14 43.90

And I just erased the 40 point deficit--and surged 3 points in the lead!  But not for long...

TE Pitts 10.56   Gesicki 9.17  
TE Ertz 9.93   Albert O. 7.94  
    20.49     17.11 -3.38

My opponent's elite TE crew makes my fledgling 3 pt lead disappear!  We're even again.  Let's see how the WRs compare...

WR Tolbert 9.50   Lamb 16.37  
WR Duvernay 8.72   Allen 13.81  
    18.22     30.18 11.96

Only 12 points?  Well, ok, that's solid, I guess...  but there are still 2 Flex positions to weigh...

FLEX Mostert 8.47   Dobbins 23.53  
FLEX GWilson 7.99   Harris 21.32  
    16.46     44.85 28.39

BOO-YEAH!  Another 28 to the 12 gives me a 40 point cushion!  That got ugly fast.  Can he expect any help from his Defense(s)?

DST Atlanta 13.21   Washington 22.06  
DST N/A 0.00   Arizona 10.48  
    13.21     32.54 19.33

Not really.  Tack another 20 onto the Kakorrhaphiophobiaxe for a convincing 60 point margin of victory (the largest predicted margin of victory leaguewide in Week 1).

And when you're done tacking on the 20, give me the Hammer, 'cuz you can't touch this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Ray_T said:

This is a good post.

and its true.  but people usually pay a premium for the top talent and the bottom end talent is usually a bargain based on fantasy points per $ spent.

Thats because there is a bare bottom value which I'll say is the waiver wire value (valued at zero) from there the points go up based on a calculation similar to yours.

I do totally see where you are coming from though.   I'll also point out projected points for starters vs projected points for backups on a per game basis also will differ.

Either way I wasnt about to do that calculation as I am on vacation in the mountans and dont have my spreadsheets with me to run the numbers.  I just did an estimate in my head based on the bonuses.  its not hard to see the bonus for RB is huge.   Thats a given and Axe did a nice job on his RB's in my opinion regardless of the $ per point.  he will have a huge positional advantage at RB.  no doubt about that.   its mostly a matter of whether the disadvantage at other positions makes  up for the advantage at RB.   hes definitely losing at QB.  At WR based on conventional predictions he will do okay but I do think some of his low money picks may pan out so this could turn out to be a strength.  At TE he looks below average but Gesecki has perhaps more upside than his ADP shows.   he could end up being average there.  hard to say for sure.

but at QB hes looking like he losing a bunch.      I dont have a spreadsheet at my fingertips to do a prediction  but I like my earlier one.  

Playoffs yes.   Championship No.

not without one other key impact move.  either a QB who steps up, or a trade for an upgrade at QB and a priority Wire pickup who pans out might be enough to push him into contending for the title.

but the draft alone wont get him there.  I'm reasonably sure of that.

That said it is a long season, and strange things can happen.

I just made that up on the fly so I'm sure it has flaws.  For instance, my quick spreadsheet to see draft value didn't factor in positional scarcity.  It just assumed the top 132 scorers would be the top 132 overall scorers.  In reality, some guys are going to take very low points at tight end because there are 24 required, so that raises the fair value for everyone else and makes good tight ends worth more.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, nobody said:

I just made that up on the fly so I'm sure it has flaws.  For instance, my quick spreadsheet to see draft value didn't factor in positional scarcity.  It just assumed the top 132 scorers would be the top 132 overall scorers.  In reality, some guys are going to take very low points at tight end because there are 24 required, so that raises the fair value for everyone else and makes good tight ends worth more.

fair enough.

for a league like this the know your league rule seems to apply.   but I do like where you are coming from.  

Positional scarcity is a hard thing to measure.    for QB it seems to be the worst.    in a league like this we dont know how many are using the superflex spot for a RB or a WR.  I'd have to guess most are doing QB on the superflex out of necessity.  there are only so many bell cow RB's out there and those will outscore the QB but most of your RB's  outside the top 15 or so probably wont  and those would be the guys you would likely be superflexing.    Axe would probably superflex the RB spot but has the option to do QB in the event of injury.

but most teams without his RB depth are likely superflexing the QB.   but with only 30 starting QB's you really are limited in some respects there too.

Those are the best superflex options out there.   RB and QB.  I'd suggest if you are superflexing a WR in this format you probably dont have a great team.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

there are only so many bell cow RB's out there and those will outscore the QB but most of your RB's  outside the top 15 or so probably wont  and those would be the guys you would likely be superflexing.

Based on last year's stats, there were 38 RBs who outscored the QB25, and would thus be better Superflex starts than a QB3.  These included Chase Edmonds, Rhamondre Stevenson, Devonta Freeman and Devontae Booker.

Parenthetically, 20 RBs outscored the QB13, so there are 20 RBs that would be better starts than a QB2.

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

Those are the best superflex options out there.   RB and QB.  I'd suggest if you are superflexing a WR in this format you probably dont have a great team.

And herein lies the fun of Rubik's Leagues like this--even after all this analysis, one can still reach an erroneous conclusion such as this!

For example, see my optimal lineup posted above.  I'm Superflexing Marquise Brown, and I'm projected for the most points in the league by some 22 points over the next-highest projection.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

Based on last year's stats, there were 38 RBs who outscored the QB25, and would thus be better Superflex starts than a QB3.  These included Chase Edmonds, Rhamondre Stevenson, Devonta Freeman and Devontae Booker.

Parenthetically, 20 RBs outscored the QB13, so there are 20 RBs that would be better starts than a QB2.

And herein lies the fun of Rubik's Leagues like this--even after all this analysis, one can still reach an erroneous conclusion such as this!

For example, see my optimal lineup posted above.  I'm Superflexing Marquise Brown, and I'm projected for the most points in the league by some 22 points over the next-highest projection.

I dont have a spreadsheet to run the numbers, but fftoday has dobbins and Brown as having similar stats in terms of yardage and TD.   while I feel Brown can exceed the projected stats by fftoday, at 7.5 yards per point vs 5 yards per point, Brown would need to exceed Dobbins by 30% in terms of yardage for this to be an even playing field.  TD's will even this out some but I think if the projections for Dobbins are reasonably close, Brown needs to blow past 1100 yards to have a chance to out point him.    I have not run the bonuses so that may even it out a bit more but at first glance this is how it looks so I'm assuming Dobbins is your flex.    Maybe not the first couple weeks as he is coming back from an ACL tear, but hes more than 12 months into recovery as of week 1 so he should be good to play.  he just wont have the burst and cutting ability until likely midseason.

I say this not having done all the calculations.  I'm in a mountainous region of canada where Wifi isnt easy to get or reliable so I dont have the time to do  a full analysis but right now it looks like Dobbins should be your flex.   you likely play matchups early in the year until he gets his legs under him but I still think hes your flex most weeks.   unless you are projecting a lot less than the fftoday predictions for him or a lot more for Brown.  if thats the case, please say so.   I do personally think Brown is a 1000 yard WR this year.  but based on the scoring system, thats likely not enough to rank him ahead of Dobbins on a flex play.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

Parenthetically, 20 RBs outscored the QB13, so there are 20 RBs that would be better starts than a QB2.

ok so you have run the numbers and it looks like RB's should be your flex.

fine.

but how about compared to WR?   your point is that Brown should be your flex.   I'm not sure he should be other than maybe the first couple games of the year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I dont have the time to do  a full analysis but right now it looks like Dobbins should be your flex.

Can you see my post above with the starting lineup?

Dobbins is one of my flexes; Damien Harris is the other.

Marquise Brown is my Superflex.

Not saying I won't eventually Superflex Edwards or DWilliams, but at the current Yahoo projections, Brown scores more than they do in Week 1.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Can you see my post above with the starting lineup?

Dobbins is one of my flexes; Damien Harris is the other.

Marquise Brown is my Superflex.

Not saying I won't eventually Superflex Edwards or DWilliams, but at the current Yahoo projections, Brown scores more than they do in Week 1.

he probably does.   With Hopkins gone, hes a WR1 on that team for the first few weeks at least.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, nobody said:

When determining auction values in an odd league like this, I'd do something like this:

  1. Estimate the number of starters at each position
  2. Project total points for all the players in the draft pool
  3. Add up the total number of points expected to be scored in the league using the estimates from steps 1 and 2
  4. Divide the total points projected in the league by the total league auction budget.  For instance in this league, one might predict the league will score around 35000 points total in a 14 week regular season (that's just a SWAG based on teams averaging around 200ish points per game), and the budget is $4212 (351 x 12 teams)
  5. Average dollar per point is now 4212/35000 = 0.12
  6. Multiply projected dollar per point by projected points per player and you should have a pretty good idea what they should go for.

So let's say you think Henry should average 50 points a game for 14 weeks.  That's 700*.12 = $84 fair value for Henry.  

Now the tricky part is we need to be tweaking that dollar per point number by some fudge factor throughout the draft to account for draft inefficiencies.  This fudge factor should change based on how cheap or expensive players are going at any one point in the draft relative to fair value.  For instance maybe you can start at 0 adjustment and if guys are going cheap, you'll need to spend a little more on future players until people start spending too much to allow you to spend less.  Pretty easy spreadsheet to make.  Every time a player goes too cheap the discount goes into the total league budget and of course, if someone goes too expensive, that delta above fair value should come out of the league budget.

Axel Elf made it very clear last year he has no idea or understanding of how auction values come into play in this stuff. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Like T Smith wr of the Saints. That stud.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Lotta mumbo jumbo and phantom projections, but the only thing that matters is that I am projected for the most points in Week 1 at 277--and they only have Henry and Taylor at about 45 pts each (125 yards is 42.5 pts all by itself, not even counting attempts and first downs, let alone TDs and 40+ bonuses).

My opponent drafted Mahomes, Murray and Jackson at QB, Zeke, Breece and Mostert at RB, and Pitts and Ertz at TE, leaving his WRs to dangle in the wind as most people have suggested I should have done (Skyy Moore, Garrett Wilson, and Josh Palmer)--and he is projected for the second-fewest points in Week 1 at 214.  In fairness, they did only draft one Defense, the Falcons.

HOWEVER, the team with the fewest points projected for Week 1 at 200 has Brady, Stafford, and Carr at QB; Kupp, Hill, Boyd and Rondale Moore at WR, Kelce and Andrews at TE... and his four RBs are Kenyan Drake, Mark Ingram, James White and Ty Johnson.

You can debate economic price indexes all you want; Axe Elf just kills drafts.

he didn't just let his WR's dangle in the wind, he punted them completely. 

He also drafted QB's correctly for a 3 QB superflex league but incorrectly based on the scoring system. He didn't need 3 expensive ones. Just three sound starters. If he had his heart set on one of those 3, then he could have waited for two starting scrubs like Daniel Jones and Marcus Mariota. 

Considering how much he likely overspent at QB and I'm also guessing overspent at TE, he didn't do as awful at RB as I would have expected.  It's not great but considering the other stuff.....

 

 

Sounds like the team projected for the lowest points also correctly identified the league as a start 3 QB league but was duped by the .1 per reception trick stat. I assume he thus overspent on Kupp, Hill, Kelce and Andrews figuring he would go with PPR Drake, James White and hope Kamara was suspended.   Poor guy joined a terrible league setup and didn't properly read the rules, or mostly did but got faked out by the PPR scoring. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Like T Smith wr of the Saints. That stud.  

Yeah something like he was going to be a top 10 player at the position. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Yeah something like he was going to be a top 10 player at the position. 

Let's hope that injuries don't besmirch genius again this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×