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AxeElf

Axe Elf's 2022 Drafts

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Ceedee should've went for $31 based on league average of 208 per game.  So good value there.

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the cold hard math and the FFToday projections say you did quite well in the draft and achieved $76 in value for a whopping 21.6% value over expectation.  Congrats 

  Spend Fair Value   Delta from fair value
henry 102 70   -32
taylor 96 73   -23
Ceedee 23 31   8
Keenan 16 26   10
Dobbins 28 38   10
Harris 20 38   18
Godwin 4 20   16
Amon 4 19   15
Marquise 4 15   11
Gesicki 2 12   10
Albert O 2 12   10
Mariota 19 26   7
Trubisky/Pickett 21 37   16
Total 341 417   76

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Your commish only got 23 bucks of extra value

  Spend Fair Value   Delta from fair value
Cook 74 57   -17
Mixon 73 54   -19
Swift 55 40   -15
Aaron Jones 52 40   -12
Mike Evans 21 23   2
Baker 18 21   3
Higgins 15 20   5
Geno Smith 9 14   5
Schultz 7 15   8
Hock 6 14   8
Knox 4 13   9
Cooks 2 19   17
Jeudy 2 18   16
Lazard 1 14   13
Total 339 362   23

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It's basically saying that, yes, runningbacks are very important in this league, but because you have to start so many players, you can't spend all of your money on them because they'll be overcome by a deep starting lineup.  Fortunately, you got the best of both worlds thanks to getting good value on other positions.

It looks like the market overcorrected to runningbacks so the profit was actually in the other positions.

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He is the commish though he just picked a random other team to say was the commish 😂 

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3 hours ago, AxeElf said:

What if there were no hypothetical situations?

I’m just saying, you tend to use a lot of random “ifs” to make stuff look better. 
“if this was a standard PPR league, Lamb and Allen would have been worth….” Blah blah blah why does that matter? It’s very clearly not a standard PPR league 😂.  Used car salesman stuff. 

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1 hour ago, nobody said:

the cold hard math and the FFToday projections say you did quite well in the draft and achieved $76 in value for a whopping 21.6% value over expectation.  Congrats 

  Spend Fair Value   Delta from fair value
henry 102 70   -32
taylor 96 73   -23
Ceedee 23 31   8
Keenan 16 26   10
Dobbins 28 38   10
Harris 20 38   18
Godwin 4 20   16
Amon 4 19   15
Marquise 4 15   11
Gesicki 2 12   10
Albert O 2 12   10
Mariota 19 26   7
Trubisky/Pickett 21 37   16
Total 341 417   76

Lotta mumbo jumbo and phantom projections, but the only thing that matters is that I am projected for the most points in Week 1 at 277--and they only have Henry and Taylor at about 45 pts each (125 yards is 42.5 pts all by itself, not even counting attempts and first downs, let alone TDs and 40+ bonuses).

My opponent drafted Mahomes, Murray and Jackson at QB, Zeke, Breece and Mostert at RB, and Pitts and Ertz at TE, leaving his WRs to dangle in the wind as most people have suggested I should have done (Skyy Moore, Garrett Wilson, and Josh Palmer)--and he is projected for the second-fewest points in Week 1 at 214.  In fairness, they did only draft one Defense, the Falcons.

HOWEVER, the team with the fewest points projected for Week 1 at 200 has Brady, Stafford, and Carr at QB; Kupp, Hill, Boyd and Rondale Moore at WR, Kelce and Andrews at TE... and his four RBs are Kenyan Drake, Mark Ingram, James White and Ty Johnson.

You can debate economic price indexes all you want; Axe Elf just kills drafts.

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2 hours ago, nobody said:

When determining auction values in an odd league like this, I'd do something like this:

  1. Estimate the number of starters at each position
  2. Project total points for all the players in the draft pool
  3. Add up the total number of points expected to be scored in the league using the estimates from steps 1 and 2
  4. Divide the total points projected in the league by the total league auction budget.  For instance in this league, one might predict the league will score around 35000 points total in a 14 week regular season (that's just a SWAG based on teams averaging around 200ish points per game), and the budget is $4212 (351 x 12 teams)
  5. Average dollar per point is now 4212/35000 = 0.12
  6. Multiply projected dollar per point by projected points per player and you should have a pretty good idea what they should go for.

So let's say you think Henry should average 50 points a game for 14 weeks.  That's 700*.12 = $84 fair value for Henry.  

Now the tricky part is we need to be tweaking that dollar per point number by some fudge factor throughout the draft to account for draft inefficiencies.  This fudge factor should change based on how cheap or expensive players are going at any one point in the draft relative to fair value.  For instance maybe you can start at 0 adjustment and if guys are going cheap, you'll need to spend a little more on future players until people start spending too much to allow you to spend less.  Pretty easy spreadsheet to make.  Every time a player goes too cheap the discount goes into the total league budget and of course, if someone goes too expensive, that delta above fair value should come out of the league budget.

This is a good post.

and its true.  but people usually pay a premium for the top talent and the bottom end talent is usually a bargain based on fantasy points per $ spent.

Thats because there is a bare bottom value which I'll say is the waiver wire value (valued at zero) from there the points go up based on a calculation similar to yours.

I do totally see where you are coming from though.   I'll also point out projected points for starters vs projected points for backups on a per game basis also will differ.

Either way I wasnt about to do that calculation as I am on vacation in the mountans and dont have my spreadsheets with me to run the numbers.  I just did an estimate in my head based on the bonuses.  its not hard to see the bonus for RB is huge.   Thats a given and Axe did a nice job on his RB's in my opinion regardless of the $ per point.  he will have a huge positional advantage at RB.  no doubt about that.   its mostly a matter of whether the disadvantage at other positions makes  up for the advantage at RB.   hes definitely losing at QB.  At WR based on conventional predictions he will do okay but I do think some of his low money picks may pan out so this could turn out to be a strength.  At TE he looks below average but Gesecki has perhaps more upside than his ADP shows.   he could end up being average there.  hard to say for sure.

but at QB hes looking like he losing a bunch.      I dont have a spreadsheet at my fingertips to do a prediction  but I like my earlier one.  

Playoffs yes.   Championship No.

not without one other key impact move.  either a QB who steps up, or a trade for an upgrade at QB and a priority Wire pickup who pans out might be enough to push him into contending for the title.

but the draft alone wont get him there.  I'm reasonably sure of that.

That said it is a long season, and strange things can happen.

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Y'all seem to be acting like there's any kind of doubt as to whether good RBs and poor QBs can overcome good QBs and poor RBs.  My opponent this week is even better off than that--he has good QBs and semi-solid RBs with poor WRs.  Let's see how we stack up in projected Yahoo fantasy points, position by position:

I am making no judgment calls on lineups, these are purely the players with the most Yahoo-projected points in Week 1--the optimal lineups assuming projection accuracy.

QB Jackson 36.21   Mariota 24.84  
QB Murray 33.21   Trubisky 21.07  
SFLEX Mahomes 30.69   MBrown 13.54  
    100.11     59.45

-40.66

Marquise Brown is projected higher than my other two RBs (Edwards and DWilliams) in Week 1, so this is my worst nightmare--having to Superflex a WR--right?!?!

Yep, it's left him with about 100 points from those three slots, and me in a 40 point hole!

RB Elliott 28.20   Taylor 47.34  
RB BHall 21.04   Henry 45.80  
    49.24     93.14 43.90

And I just erased the 40 point deficit--and surged 3 points in the lead!  But not for long...

TE Pitts 10.56   Gesicki 9.17  
TE Ertz 9.93   Albert O. 7.94  
    20.49     17.11 -3.38

My opponent's elite TE crew makes my fledgling 3 pt lead disappear!  We're even again.  Let's see how the WRs compare...

WR Tolbert 9.50   Lamb 16.37  
WR Duvernay 8.72   Allen 13.81  
    18.22     30.18 11.96

Only 12 points?  Well, ok, that's solid, I guess...  but there are still 2 Flex positions to weigh...

FLEX Mostert 8.47   Dobbins 23.53  
FLEX GWilson 7.99   Harris 21.32  
    16.46     44.85 28.39

BOO-YEAH!  Another 28 to the 12 gives me a 40 point cushion!  That got ugly fast.  Can he expect any help from his Defense(s)?

DST Atlanta 13.21   Washington 22.06  
DST N/A 0.00   Arizona 10.48  
    13.21     32.54 19.33

Not really.  Tack another 20 onto the Kakorrhaphiophobiaxe for a convincing 60 point margin of victory (the largest predicted margin of victory leaguewide in Week 1).

And when you're done tacking on the 20, give me the Hammer, 'cuz you can't touch this.

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7 hours ago, Ray_T said:

This is a good post.

and its true.  but people usually pay a premium for the top talent and the bottom end talent is usually a bargain based on fantasy points per $ spent.

Thats because there is a bare bottom value which I'll say is the waiver wire value (valued at zero) from there the points go up based on a calculation similar to yours.

I do totally see where you are coming from though.   I'll also point out projected points for starters vs projected points for backups on a per game basis also will differ.

Either way I wasnt about to do that calculation as I am on vacation in the mountans and dont have my spreadsheets with me to run the numbers.  I just did an estimate in my head based on the bonuses.  its not hard to see the bonus for RB is huge.   Thats a given and Axe did a nice job on his RB's in my opinion regardless of the $ per point.  he will have a huge positional advantage at RB.  no doubt about that.   its mostly a matter of whether the disadvantage at other positions makes  up for the advantage at RB.   hes definitely losing at QB.  At WR based on conventional predictions he will do okay but I do think some of his low money picks may pan out so this could turn out to be a strength.  At TE he looks below average but Gesecki has perhaps more upside than his ADP shows.   he could end up being average there.  hard to say for sure.

but at QB hes looking like he losing a bunch.      I dont have a spreadsheet at my fingertips to do a prediction  but I like my earlier one.  

Playoffs yes.   Championship No.

not without one other key impact move.  either a QB who steps up, or a trade for an upgrade at QB and a priority Wire pickup who pans out might be enough to push him into contending for the title.

but the draft alone wont get him there.  I'm reasonably sure of that.

That said it is a long season, and strange things can happen.

I just made that up on the fly so I'm sure it has flaws.  For instance, my quick spreadsheet to see draft value didn't factor in positional scarcity.  It just assumed the top 132 scorers would be the top 132 overall scorers.  In reality, some guys are going to take very low points at tight end because there are 24 required, so that raises the fair value for everyone else and makes good tight ends worth more.

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2 hours ago, nobody said:

I just made that up on the fly so I'm sure it has flaws.  For instance, my quick spreadsheet to see draft value didn't factor in positional scarcity.  It just assumed the top 132 scorers would be the top 132 overall scorers.  In reality, some guys are going to take very low points at tight end because there are 24 required, so that raises the fair value for everyone else and makes good tight ends worth more.

fair enough.

for a league like this the know your league rule seems to apply.   but I do like where you are coming from.  

Positional scarcity is a hard thing to measure.    for QB it seems to be the worst.    in a league like this we dont know how many are using the superflex spot for a RB or a WR.  I'd have to guess most are doing QB on the superflex out of necessity.  there are only so many bell cow RB's out there and those will outscore the QB but most of your RB's  outside the top 15 or so probably wont  and those would be the guys you would likely be superflexing.    Axe would probably superflex the RB spot but has the option to do QB in the event of injury.

but most teams without his RB depth are likely superflexing the QB.   but with only 30 starting QB's you really are limited in some respects there too.

Those are the best superflex options out there.   RB and QB.  I'd suggest if you are superflexing a WR in this format you probably dont have a great team.

 

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1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

there are only so many bell cow RB's out there and those will outscore the QB but most of your RB's  outside the top 15 or so probably wont  and those would be the guys you would likely be superflexing.

Based on last year's stats, there were 38 RBs who outscored the QB25, and would thus be better Superflex starts than a QB3.  These included Chase Edmonds, Rhamondre Stevenson, Devonta Freeman and Devontae Booker.

Parenthetically, 20 RBs outscored the QB13, so there are 20 RBs that would be better starts than a QB2.

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

Those are the best superflex options out there.   RB and QB.  I'd suggest if you are superflexing a WR in this format you probably dont have a great team.

And herein lies the fun of Rubik's Leagues like this--even after all this analysis, one can still reach an erroneous conclusion such as this!

For example, see my optimal lineup posted above.  I'm Superflexing Marquise Brown, and I'm projected for the most points in the league by some 22 points over the next-highest projection.

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

Based on last year's stats, there were 38 RBs who outscored the QB25, and would thus be better Superflex starts than a QB3.  These included Chase Edmonds, Rhamondre Stevenson, Devonta Freeman and Devontae Booker.

Parenthetically, 20 RBs outscored the QB13, so there are 20 RBs that would be better starts than a QB2.

And herein lies the fun of Rubik's Leagues like this--even after all this analysis, one can still reach an erroneous conclusion such as this!

For example, see my optimal lineup posted above.  I'm Superflexing Marquise Brown, and I'm projected for the most points in the league by some 22 points over the next-highest projection.

I dont have a spreadsheet to run the numbers, but fftoday has dobbins and Brown as having similar stats in terms of yardage and TD.   while I feel Brown can exceed the projected stats by fftoday, at 7.5 yards per point vs 5 yards per point, Brown would need to exceed Dobbins by 30% in terms of yardage for this to be an even playing field.  TD's will even this out some but I think if the projections for Dobbins are reasonably close, Brown needs to blow past 1100 yards to have a chance to out point him.    I have not run the bonuses so that may even it out a bit more but at first glance this is how it looks so I'm assuming Dobbins is your flex.    Maybe not the first couple weeks as he is coming back from an ACL tear, but hes more than 12 months into recovery as of week 1 so he should be good to play.  he just wont have the burst and cutting ability until likely midseason.

I say this not having done all the calculations.  I'm in a mountainous region of canada where Wifi isnt easy to get or reliable so I dont have the time to do  a full analysis but right now it looks like Dobbins should be your flex.   you likely play matchups early in the year until he gets his legs under him but I still think hes your flex most weeks.   unless you are projecting a lot less than the fftoday predictions for him or a lot more for Brown.  if thats the case, please say so.   I do personally think Brown is a 1000 yard WR this year.  but based on the scoring system, thats likely not enough to rank him ahead of Dobbins on a flex play.

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

Parenthetically, 20 RBs outscored the QB13, so there are 20 RBs that would be better starts than a QB2.

ok so you have run the numbers and it looks like RB's should be your flex.

fine.

but how about compared to WR?   your point is that Brown should be your flex.   I'm not sure he should be other than maybe the first couple games of the year.

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5 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I dont have the time to do  a full analysis but right now it looks like Dobbins should be your flex.

Can you see my post above with the starting lineup?

Dobbins is one of my flexes; Damien Harris is the other.

Marquise Brown is my Superflex.

Not saying I won't eventually Superflex Edwards or DWilliams, but at the current Yahoo projections, Brown scores more than they do in Week 1.

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3 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Can you see my post above with the starting lineup?

Dobbins is one of my flexes; Damien Harris is the other.

Marquise Brown is my Superflex.

Not saying I won't eventually Superflex Edwards or DWilliams, but at the current Yahoo projections, Brown scores more than they do in Week 1.

he probably does.   With Hopkins gone, hes a WR1 on that team for the first few weeks at least.

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20 hours ago, nobody said:

When determining auction values in an odd league like this, I'd do something like this:

  1. Estimate the number of starters at each position
  2. Project total points for all the players in the draft pool
  3. Add up the total number of points expected to be scored in the league using the estimates from steps 1 and 2
  4. Divide the total points projected in the league by the total league auction budget.  For instance in this league, one might predict the league will score around 35000 points total in a 14 week regular season (that's just a SWAG based on teams averaging around 200ish points per game), and the budget is $4212 (351 x 12 teams)
  5. Average dollar per point is now 4212/35000 = 0.12
  6. Multiply projected dollar per point by projected points per player and you should have a pretty good idea what they should go for.

So let's say you think Henry should average 50 points a game for 14 weeks.  That's 700*.12 = $84 fair value for Henry.  

Now the tricky part is we need to be tweaking that dollar per point number by some fudge factor throughout the draft to account for draft inefficiencies.  This fudge factor should change based on how cheap or expensive players are going at any one point in the draft relative to fair value.  For instance maybe you can start at 0 adjustment and if guys are going cheap, you'll need to spend a little more on future players until people start spending too much to allow you to spend less.  Pretty easy spreadsheet to make.  Every time a player goes too cheap the discount goes into the total league budget and of course, if someone goes too expensive, that delta above fair value should come out of the league budget.

Axel Elf made it very clear last year he has no idea or understanding of how auction values come into play in this stuff. 

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Like T Smith wr of the Saints. That stud.  

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20 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Lotta mumbo jumbo and phantom projections, but the only thing that matters is that I am projected for the most points in Week 1 at 277--and they only have Henry and Taylor at about 45 pts each (125 yards is 42.5 pts all by itself, not even counting attempts and first downs, let alone TDs and 40+ bonuses).

My opponent drafted Mahomes, Murray and Jackson at QB, Zeke, Breece and Mostert at RB, and Pitts and Ertz at TE, leaving his WRs to dangle in the wind as most people have suggested I should have done (Skyy Moore, Garrett Wilson, and Josh Palmer)--and he is projected for the second-fewest points in Week 1 at 214.  In fairness, they did only draft one Defense, the Falcons.

HOWEVER, the team with the fewest points projected for Week 1 at 200 has Brady, Stafford, and Carr at QB; Kupp, Hill, Boyd and Rondale Moore at WR, Kelce and Andrews at TE... and his four RBs are Kenyan Drake, Mark Ingram, James White and Ty Johnson.

You can debate economic price indexes all you want; Axe Elf just kills drafts.

he didn't just let his WR's dangle in the wind, he punted them completely. 

He also drafted QB's correctly for a 3 QB superflex league but incorrectly based on the scoring system. He didn't need 3 expensive ones. Just three sound starters. If he had his heart set on one of those 3, then he could have waited for two starting scrubs like Daniel Jones and Marcus Mariota. 

Considering how much he likely overspent at QB and I'm also guessing overspent at TE, he didn't do as awful at RB as I would have expected.  It's not great but considering the other stuff.....

 

 

Sounds like the team projected for the lowest points also correctly identified the league as a start 3 QB league but was duped by the .1 per reception trick stat. I assume he thus overspent on Kupp, Hill, Kelce and Andrews figuring he would go with PPR Drake, James White and hope Kamara was suspended.   Poor guy joined a terrible league setup and didn't properly read the rules, or mostly did but got faked out by the PPR scoring. 

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Like T Smith wr of the Saints. That stud.  

Yeah something like he was going to be a top 10 player at the position. 

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31 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Yeah something like he was going to be a top 10 player at the position. 

Let's hope that injuries don't besmirch genius again this year.

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Where my first draft was ultra-complex, my second draft was ultra-simple in comparision.  There are only 8 scoring categories:  Passing Yards (25), Passing TDs (5), Rushing Yards (10), Rushing TDs (6), Receptions (1), Receiving Yards (10), Receiving TDs (6), and 2 Pt Conversions (2).

Start 1 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 W/T, 1 W/R/T, 1 Q/W/R/T--with 8 Bench and 2 IR.  So your basic 12 team PPR Doubleflex Superflex league, with TEs not mandatory, and no Ks or Ds.

The way this draft started, I was afraid I would be embarrassed to share it with the world--I was literally breaking every rule of sound auction drafting.

#1 - I was locked into a strategy--and several specific players going in.  Better auction strategy is to wait to see how the draft unfolds.  But since I'd just done the RB-heavy PPC league, I wanted to do the opposite strategy in this PPR league (build around the WRs) and the one player that I was absolutely, positively going to get, who I believe will be the #1 overall WR in 2022, was Justin Jefferson--no matter what.  I mean, how much could he cost, right?  45?  50?  I can work with that.

Unfortunately, someone else had made that same vow, and so next to the $68 paid for Jonathan Taylor, I paid the second highest price in the auction to secure the services of JJ at $57.

I also had in mind a trio of QBs I was targeting, Cousins (to stack with JJ), Carr, and Winston.  Unfortunately, Winston came out shortly thereafter--still rather early, when people were still paying $30+ for QBs--and Winston, whom I was hoping would be the cheapest of the three, cost me $19.

So #2 rule broken, I overpaid for a lesser player because I drafted him too early in the draft.

The #3 rule broken here was not to overpay for the first few blue chip players nominated in an auction, especially when you need to fill out several flex slots--better to balance your spending and get good players up and down your roster, rather than blowing your wad on two or three of the most expensive players.  And after paying the price I paid for Jefferson, I had no intention of drafting Stefon Diggs--but I wasn't going to let him go for LESS THAN $30(!), so I bid at the last second, just hoping to keep the bidding going--and won him for $30.

Oh. Lord.

#4 rule--Don't draft two stud WRs with the same bye week.

I have Winston and two ace WRs (who share a Week 7 bye) and I've already spent $106.  I'm doomed.

AND then after scoring a minor bargain on CEH for $9, I paid $17 for Amon-Ra St. Brown, just because I had to have him--another overpay for a player I should have been able to get cheaper later.

Now, if this were an old-fashioned movie serial, this would be the point at which the narrator would come in with the organ music and ask penetrating questions like "WILL AXE ELF SUCCUMB TO HIS FRIVOLOUS SPENDING?"  "WHAT WILL HIS TEAM'S RUNNING BACKS LOOK LIKE??"  "HOW WILL AXE ELF GET OUT OF THIS ONE???"

Well, you just knew I would come out smelling like a rose, didn't you?

Granted, I'm going to need some luck at RB, but I picked some pretty solid PPR options for my backfield--and nobody can touch my WRs.

QB:  Jameis Winston (14) $19, Matt Ryan (14) $9 (DOH!  Did it again on the bye weeks!  My only QB in Week 14 might be...) Daniel Jones (9) $9 (...but then there's time to fix that by then.)

RB:  Travis Etienne (11) $24, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (8) $9, Cordarrelle Patterson (14) $5, Damien Williams (14) $3 (dumped my last $3 on him), Rachaad White (11) $1

WR:  Justin Jefferson (7) $57, Stefon Diggs (7) $30, Amon-Ra St. Brown (6) $17, Chris Godwin (11) $7, Robert Woods (6) $4, Michael Gallup (9) $2, Tyler Lockett (11) $2, Skyy Moore (8) $1, Romeo Doubs (14) $1

I didn't really want Doubs--he was one of those nominations where you hope there's enough buzz about him that someone bids $2--but no one did, so...  Guess I got a flyer.

Kinda fun watching people pay $40 for the top TEs in a TE-optional league.  lol

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3 hours ago, AxeElf said:

#1 - I was locked into a strategy--and several specific players going in.  Better auction strategy is to wait to see how the draft unfolds.  But since I'd just done the RB-heavy PPC league, I wanted to do the opposite strategy in this PPR league (build around the WRs) and the one player that I was absolutely, positively going to get, who I believe will be the #1 overall WR in 2022, was Justin Jefferson--no matter what.  I mean, how much could he cost, right?  45?  50?  I can work with that.

QB:  Jameis Winston (14) $19, Matt Ryan (14) $9 (DOH!  Did it again on the bye weeks!  My only QB in Week 14 might be...) Daniel Jones (9) $9 (...but then there's time to fix that by then.)

RB:  Travis Etienne (11) $24, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (8) $9, Cordarrelle Patterson (14) $5, Damien Williams (14) $3 (dumped my last $3 on him), Rachaad White (11) $1

WR:  Justin Jefferson (7) $57, Stefon Diggs (7) $30, Amon-Ra St. Brown (6) $17, Chris Godwin (11) $7, Robert Woods (6) $4, Michael Gallup (9) $2, Tyler Lockett (11) $2, Skyy Moore (8) $1, Romeo Doubs (14) $1

I didn't really want Doubs--he was one of those nominations where you hope there's enough buzz about him that someone bids $2--but no one did, so...  Guess I got a flyer.

Kinda fun watching people pay $40 for the top TEs in a TE-optional league.  lol

When i told you last year about waiting to see how drafts unfold in auctions and having value tiers you melted down. Glad to see time has shown you my wisdom.

 

Your RB room is junk. Winston is a 4th tier/sleeper QB option and you are rolling dice on Ryan or Jones being a bounceback. Wide receiver looks good on paper and even though WR turns over a lot in the year it isn't a bad idea to have 2 givens up top.

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2 hours ago, Sean Mooney said:

When i told you last year about waiting to see how drafts unfold in auctions and having value tiers you melted down. Glad to see time has shown you my wisdom.

 

Your RB room is junk. Winston is a 4th tier/sleeper QB option and you are rolling dice on Ryan or Jones being a bounceback. Wide receiver looks good on paper and even though WR turns over a lot in the year it isn't a bad idea to have 2 givens up top.

Most drafts look good on paper, I think you’re trying to hard , and it’s making you look foolish.  Stop being so prideful.  

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4 hours ago, Sean Mooney said:

When i told you last year about waiting to see how drafts unfold in auctions and having value tiers you melted down.

You're clearly thinking of someone else.  Value tiers are stupid, of course (every player is in his own "value tier"), but Axe Elf has been teaching auction draft strategy since you were picking lint out of your bellybutton.

4 hours ago, Sean Mooney said:

Your RB room is junk.

We shall see.  Watching Etienne in college, I knew he would win fantasy football leagues as a pro.  And then he went to the same team as his college QB!  And then he got hurt.  After the injury, who knows--that's why I got him for $24 instead of $48--but if he regains form with Trevor Lawrence, I'm going to be just fine.  If the Chiefs really do go to a shorter, more controlled, possession-type passing game this year, CEH could finally live up to his 2nd/3rd round PPR expectations.  Cordarrelle Patterson was a legit top 10 PPR RB last season, and if he gets hurt, I have the arguable MVP of SuperBowl LIV as his handcuff.  I'm also putting Gallup on IR and putting in a waiver claim for Trey Sermon.  Hopefully nobody will notice him by Saturday.

4 hours ago, Sean Mooney said:

Winston is a 4th tier/sleeper QB option

Jameis Winston has been a top 15 QB every season he has played the full year, including being the QB3 in his last complete season as a starter (2019)--and that's factoring in the negative fantasy points for interceptions.  Remember, no deductions for INTs (or FUMs) in this league.

4 hours ago, Sean Mooney said:

you are rolling dice on Ryan or Jones being a bounceback

I'm basically just counting on them starting all season.  They don't have to be great, just get me 15-20 pts per week and I should be good.

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Most drafts look good on paper, I think you’re trying to hard , and it’s making you look foolish.  Stop being so prideful.  

What are you talking about. I praised what needed to be praised, I gave criticism where I thought warranted. 

4 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

You're clearly thinking of someone else.  Value tiers are stupid, of course (every player is in his own "value tier"), but Axe Elf has been teaching auction draft strategy since you were picking lint out of your bellybutton.

We shall see.  Watching Etienne in college, I knew he would win fantasy football leagues as a pro.  And then he went to the same team as his college QB!  And then he got hurt.  After the injury, who knows--that's why I got him for $24 instead of $48--but if he regains form with Trevor Lawrence, I'm going to be just fine.  If the Chiefs really do go to a shorter, more controlled, possession-type passing game this year, CEH could finally live up to his 2nd/3rd round PPR expectations.  Cordarrelle Patterson was a legit top 10 PPR RB last season, and if he gets hurt, I have the arguable MVP of SuperBowl LIV as his handcuff.  I'm also putting Gallup on IR and putting in a waiver claim for Trey Sermon.  Hopefully nobody will notice him by Saturday.

Jameis Winston has been a top 15 QB every season he has played the full year, including being the QB3 in his last complete season as a starter (2019)--and that's factoring in the negative fantasy points for interceptions.  Remember, no deductions for INTs (or FUMs) in this league.

I'm basically just counting on them starting all season.  They don't have to be great, just get me 15-20 pts per week and I should be good.

I'm not thinking of someone else. You jumped me on it.

CEH just always worries me with the injury issues and the Chiefs carrying 4 running backs with Andy Reid's tendencies just flash red flags. The Sermon pick up (provided you get him) could be sneaky solid. 

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44 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

I'm not thinking of someone else. You jumped me on it.

If you want to dredge up the post you're referring to, perhaps I can help you understand it better.

44 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

CEH just always worries me with the injury issues and the Chiefs carrying 4 running backs with Andy Reid's tendencies just flash red flags.

He's no slam dunk, that's for sure, but he offered some reasonable upside for less than $10--esp. if the Chiefs do go to a more underneath passing game.  Ronald Jones is more of a bruiser and less of a pass catcher, so I don't see him as a problem, but McKinnon might be (although he showed no signs of being featured last year, and he's now a year older).  Pacheco?  Maybe...  or maybe Darwin Thompson 2.0.  No wait, Derrick Gore would be Darwin Thompson 2.0.  So maybe Darwin Thompson 3.0.

In any case, I think CEH stands to benefit the most from the shift in focus (if there is one).

44 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

The Sermon pick up (provided you get him) could be sneaky solid.

At least it's FAB, so I don't have to worry about my waiver order.  I bid $5 (out of $100) on him, seems like that should be enough to land a guy who went undrafted.

He's probably the $1 guy I would have tried for if I hadn't accidentally drafted Doubs.

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5 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

If you want to dredge up the post you're referring to, perhaps I can help you understand it better.

He's no slam dunk, that's for sure, but he offered some reasonable upside for less than $10--esp. if the Chiefs do go to a more underneath passing game.  Ronald Jones is more of a bruiser and less of a pass catcher, so I don't see him as a problem, but McKinnon might be (although he showed no signs of being featured last year, and he's now a year older).  Pacheco?  Maybe...  or maybe Darwin Thompson 2.0.  No wait, Derrick Gore would be Darwin Thompson 2.0.  So maybe Darwin Thompson 3.0.

In any case, I think CEH stands to benefit the most from the shift in focus (if there is one).

At least it's FAB, so I don't have to worry about my waiver order.  I bid $5 (out of $100) on him, seems like that should be enough to land a guy who went undrafted.

He's probably the $1 guy I would have tried for if I hadn't accidentally drafted Doubs.

I'm not dredging up the past posts. No idea what page that is buried on.

Based off of pre-draft buzz you might be able to flip Doubs for someone usable. Or you wait into the season and he performs to to pre draft buzz and you have a nice trade chip. 

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1 minute ago, Sean Mooney said:

Based off of pre-draft buzz you might be able to flip Doubs for someone usable.

Pre-draft buzz is why I nominated him, but given that no one was willing to outbid my $1 nom to get him, I doubt if I could flip him now for anything more than a bent paper clip and a used Kleenex.

Best bet now is to wait and see if he is as advertised once the season starts...

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Just for fun I'll explain my idea of value tiers in an auction draft. I tend to try and put guys into tiers and decide what I am willing to go with based on the money that it might cost to get them.

Case in point with QB (I borrowed these tiers from elsewhere. Haven't done mine yet)

Tier 1- Allen, Herbert, Mahomes

Tier 2- Murray, Burrow, Hurts, Jackson, Prescott, Brady, Stafford

Tier 3- Wilson, Rodgers, Carr, Lance, Cousins

Tier 4- Fields, Winston, Tua, Watson, Lawrence

Then I look at the prices. So tier 3- has Wilson at about 10 dollars (obviously dollar numbers can fluctuate based off of how much money is in your draft pool), COusins is 6. Winston is like a dollar a lot of places. But I think Winston (and Fields) have a higher upside of weeks than Cousins. So if I can get them for like 1 or 2 dollars obviously you do that and conceivably save the money based off of where Cousins value is. But flow of draft changes some things. Perhaps Wilson comes off at a spot on the board where I can swipe him for like 5 dollars. You almost have to do that. 

The best advice is- have a plan, but be prepared to adjust based off of how the draft flows. 

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On 8/6/2022 at 7:07 AM, nobody said:

I just made that up on the fly so I'm sure it has flaws.  For instance, my quick spreadsheet to see draft value didn't factor in positional scarcity.  It just assumed the top 132 scorers would be the top 132 overall scorers.  In reality, some guys are going to take very low points at tight end because there are 24 required, so that raises the fair value for everyone else and makes good tight ends worth more.

I was thinking about this a little today.  I think the bigger flaw in my numbers is the the amount of money a manager should spend on a player should be a function of how much money the manager has left since bid money becomes less valuable as players get scooped up. 

My first instinct is that the the value of each bid dollar really shouldn't be uniform.  ie, your 200th dollar isn't as valuable as your last dollar, but at the same time, as the draft goes on, each draft dollar is worth less.  So there's these competing pulls on your budget, right?  As you spend money, your remaining budget dollars start to be worth more to you, but as players get picked up, your remaining bid dollars start to lose value.

This is an interesting problem.  I bet it's pretty straight forward to optimize auction drafting.  It still boils down to having garbage-in/garbage-out if your projections suck, but if you wanted to implement a game theory optimal approach, you could also incorporate range of outcomes.

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26 minutes ago, nobody said:

I was thinking about this a little today.  I think the bigger flaw in my numbers is the the amount of money a manager should spend on a player should be a function of how much money the manager has left since bid money becomes less valuable as players get scooped up. 

My first instinct is that the the value of each bid dollar really shouldn't be uniform.  ie, your 200th dollar isn't as valuable as your last dollar, but at the same time, as the draft goes on, each draft dollar is worth less.  So there's these competing pulls on your budget, right?  As you spend money, your remaining budget dollars start to be worth more to you, but as players get picked up, your remaining bid dollars start to lose value.

This is an interesting problem.  I bet it's pretty straight forward to optimize auction drafting.  It still boils down to having garbage-in/garbage-out if your projections suck, but if you wanted to implement a game theory optimal approach, you could also incorporate range of outcomes.

Just drafting the best players has always worked for me.

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

Just drafting the best players has always worked for me.

The draft market is so inefficient due to people not knowing who is actually good or not, if you're better at projecting by 15%, you could waste money on inefficient drafting.  

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When it pertains to ff, it’s not hard to know who is good, but who will be good, it’s an art actually. 

 

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6 hours ago, Sean Mooney said:

The best advice is- have a plan, but be prepared to adjust based off of how the draft flows.

one thing I have generally noticed .... the last player in the tier often goes for more than they should.   so try not to let your targeted player last that long.   get em early.

I have also found that most people try to go top tier at the start of the draft when you have money.  but going second or third tier early can sometimes mean you get  a deal because people are afraid to bid beyond a certain point because the market hasnt been set yet.

lastly, if people are overpaying early, there will be plenty of chances to make that up in the mid draft when you have money and everyone else doesnt.

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46 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

lastly, if people are overpaying early, there will be plenty of chances to make that up in the mid draft when you have money and everyone else doesnt.

To some extent, but wait too long and you end up paying $30 for your second Kicker to complete a roster of mediocre talent.

47 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

one thing I have generally noticed .... the last player in the tier often goes for more than they should.   so try not to let your targeted player last that long.   get em early.

LOL!  So have patience and wait until everyone is out of money, but get your targeted players early...

There's a reason that snake drafts are checkers and auction drafts are chess.

This is why "tiers" make no sense, objectively.  In logic, fantasy football tiers would be called a nominal fallacy--the belief that you have explained something just because you have named it.

Tiers, opinions, whatever.

Maybe you have Fournette in one tier and Aaron Jones in another, but are you really going to go crazy bidding on one when the other is still on the board?

It's only when that "tier" becomes a chasm that you could end up paying 10%-20% over market value for your overlooked stud.  But that only happens when Mixon just got nominated, and the next-best RB on the board is Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

Tiers are fluid.

56 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

but going second or third tier early can sometimes mean you get  a deal because people are afraid to bid beyond a certain point because the market hasnt been set yet.

Again, at times.  But far more likely you will pay MORE for a player nominated in the opening rounds of a draft than you will pay for that same player in the mid- to late rounds.  FAR more likely.  (See Jameis Winston above.)

I give your effort a C overall.  You broached some relevant topics, but really failed to fully discuss them.

 

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

LOL!  So have patience and wait until everyone is out of money, but get your targeted players early...

no you misunderstand. 

perhaps I wasnt clear.

just dont let them be the last one in the tier to go if you can help it.   you always overpay for the last good RB or the last good WR in a tier.  because everyone who doesnt have one feels the urgency to get one.

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

To some extent, but wait too long and you end up paying $30 for your second Kicker to complete a roster of mediocre talent.

it is always a balancing act.  you know that.  you need to be patient, and at times it is obvious when you need to spend and when you dont.    and yes. if you are spending $30 on a kicker at the end, you are probably in trouble.   big trouble.

in the auction I won last year, I blew the budget on 2 studs early.   then let everyone spend their money until about 2/3 of the way into the draft and I was able to get bargains.  

Maybe i got lucky in the way it turned out.   but I was patient and waited until I had purchasing power again and then took advantage of the situation.

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39 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

you always overpay for the last good RB or the last good WR in a tier

I JUST addressed that; pay attention.

Tiers are imaginary.  You may be bidding against people who don't share your "tier structure."  And even if we were all drafting using the same tiers, if the top player in the "next tier" is still on the board when the last player in the "first tier" is nominated, it probably won't mean a huge bidding war.

If Joe Mixon isn't nominated until the next-best RB left on the board is CEH, THEN you've got a bidding war on your hands.

I swear, you had better not come back and say, "Yes, but you always overpay for the last player in a tier."

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On 8/11/2022 at 11:30 AM, AxeElf said:

I'm also putting Gallup on IR and putting in a waiver claim for Trey Sermon.

Based on Sermon "starting" last night with Lance (I know, Lance was the only real "starter" on the field--but that's how it looked), I raised my bid on Sermon from $5 to $7.  I landed him, but it won't show me if there were any other bids on him, so I don't know if the raise was necessary or not.  Heck, I don't even know if the $5 bid was necessary in the first place.  I guess if I lose this league because of being $2-$4 short of FAB, it was worth the shot on Sermon.

Also added Tonyan directly to IR.  He'll probably be the first guy I drop when I need to, since TEs aren't required in this league, but he was the highest-scoring player who was IR-eligible on the board.

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On 8/11/2022 at 10:01 PM, AxeElf said:

I JUST addressed that; pay attention.

Tiers are imaginary.  You may be bidding against people who don't share your "tier structure."  And even if we were all drafting using the same tiers, if the top player in the "next tier" is still on the board when the last player in the "first tier" is nominated, it probably won't mean a huge bidding war.

If Joe Mixon isn't nominated until the next-best RB left on the board is CEH, THEN you've got a bidding war on your hands.

I swear, you had better not come back and say, "Yes, but you always overpay for the last player in a tier."

maybe they are, but your opponents often use them.  

even if they dont,  normally people look at players projections and they will have 2 or 3 players they want and are considered interchangeable.

to ignore this is to ignore the most important rule of fantasy football.   know your league and know your enemy

To that end I"m disappointed in you Axe.   This a tool people use and understanding the theory is important to understanding how people think, and thereby will give you a better idea of  when to bid and when not to.

I understand why you dont use tiers yourself.   but even if you dont use tiers yourself this tool is helpful in determining how others will behave because a lot of others use the tiering system.   and when the average person has 3 or 4 players they consider comparable within a range,  and all are gone except for one.  you know you will have to settle for less if you dont get that last player and if a bidding war ensues as it often does, that player (the last perceived player in the tier) usually sells for more  it does not matter whether you consider it a tier or not.   quite often that bidding war happens with the perceived last player within a tier and they usually sell for too much money.

Thats all I am saying.

use your head.    

This tool isnt going away and a lot of people find it to be useful   Just like a lot of people will look up the ratings in a magazine or on a website and will use that as their bible.   right or wrong, ADP and rankings from fftoday or other publications as well as the tiers associated play a large role in determining how people behave at the draft table.

if you dont use them yourself, others do, so its something you shouldnt ignore.

 

 

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