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Candygram4Mongo

Drafting from the 2 Spot

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I've drawn the 2 spot in my main league (12 team, Half PPR).

A first round pick needs the right combination of high opportunity for elite production with as low risk as possible. If JT falls to me (which he won't) he's a slam dunk.
After him, I've got too many concerns about all of the first round RB's.

CMac- IF he plays 14+ games, he's a game winning player virtually every week. BUT, the injury history, his high mileage, the rumblings that the team wants to take better care of him, the threat of D'onta Foreman taking high value touches, these all have me concerned. 
Ekeler-  The RB I'm most likely to take at 2. Chargers offense offers tons of opportunity. The drafting of Spiller is a slight concern, but not much more than Josh Kelly etc last season.
Najee- Had him last season. So many touches, but efficiency was not good. OLine is poor. QB Kenny Pickett has looked good early in camp, which could be a benefit.
DCook- Possibly elite, but was barely an RB1 last season.

Which leaves the two elite receivers.

JJefferson- My most likely pick. Second year after a revolutionary rookie campaign. All the talk is of increasing his role, the pieces are all in place for a historic season.
Kupp- So good. The only question is if he can live up to last season. With Allen Robinson taking Woods' spot, that could ding his opportunities. 

While mocking, when I take the conventional route with CMac, I typically find myself with him Mike Evans and Keenan Allen after the third round, which would make me feel great- if this was 2019.
If I take Andrews in the second to pair with a round 1 RB, I'm set at TE, but then I'm chasing RB/WR depth for the next 6 rounds. AJBrown, Pittman and Tee Higgins are promising, but not slam dunk elite like Jefferson or the other top 5-6 WRs.

When taking JJefferson at 1.2, it's possible to get Javonte Williams & James Conner at the 2-3 turn, which gives a solid foundation of younger talent with roles in high octane offenses.

I'm interested in thoughts from others drafting from 2.
Are my concerns overblown? Can you sell me on feeling confident with CMac? What strategies are you thinking about to counter the teams drafting Diggs/DAdams or Swift/Kelce at the other end of the draft board?

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Henry

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6 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Henry

Yes. 
I neglected to mention him. I love his play, but he’s another guy whose wear and tear concern me. I view Jon Taylor as similar upside, but with young legs. 
JJ at 1.2 offers the elite upside, without the physical punishment that threatens Henry and the other RBs every single touch. 
Starting WR-RB-RB offers elite WR production and 2 fair shots at RB1 production. 

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15 minutes ago, Candygram4Mongo said:

he’s another guy whose wear and tear concern me.

agreed.  but hes on the right side of 30.

I think you have one more  very good to great year with him, then it will be a steady decline after that.

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Henry should be the #1 pick in all formats; if he falls to you at #2 you count your blessings.

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57 minutes ago, Candygram4Mongo said:

Yes. 
I neglected to mention him. I love his play, but he’s another guy whose wear and tear concern me. I view Jon Taylor as similar upside, but with young legs. 
JJ at 1.2 offers the elite upside, without the physical punishment that threatens Henry and the other RBs every single touch. 
Starting WR-RB-RB offers elite WR production and 2 fair shots at RB1 production. 

Didn’t you say that Taylor wouldn’t be available?  The only reason why he would be is the person with the first pick made the right decision in taking Henry. 

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At 1.2, and jt gone, I think about Harris or cook.  
 

I am not trusting Henry without aj and Julio.

cmc and ekeler are elite when healthy.  
 

in .5 ppr, wrs are devalued a bit, so I might hold on studs like  jj, chase, Kupp (who also has injury concerns).

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9 minutes ago, Bier Meister said:

At 1.2, and jt gone, I think about Harris or cook.  
 

I am not trusting Henry without aj and Julio.

cmc and ekeler are elite when healthy.  
 

in .5 ppr, wrs are devalued a bit, so I might hold on studs like  jj, chase, Kupp (who also has injury concerns).

If you look at Henry production in the games he played , he was tearing it up , while neither Brown nor Jones were being very productive, I don’t see that being an issue.  

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It will mean different personnel and formations during the game.  I think it will make a big difference throughout the season 

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I disagree.  Neither of them were any good when Henry was kicking butt.  

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6 hours ago, Bier Meister said:

At 1.2, and jt gone, I think about Harris or cook.  
 

I am not trusting Henry without aj and Julio.

cmc and ekeler are elite when healthy.  
 

in .5 ppr, wrs are devalued a bit, so I might hold on studs like  jj, chase, Kupp (who also has injury concerns).

ok in terms of CMC, that guy has been hurt far more than hes been healthy.   I dont know that you want him at your first pick at #2.

if he returns to form its possible, but the QB situation isnt what it was when he was last healthy either.  I suspect Defenses will key on him and nobody else.    if he remains healthy he will get his numbers but they wont be what they once were.   Hes a late first round pick in my opinion.

Ekeler  has likely hit his ceiling.   but thats not a bad place to be.  hes top 5.   If this was full PPR he might be considered here, but at .5 PPR top 5 or 6 is where he belongs.

I think Henry has less risk than CMC.  he got hurt last year, but it wasnt a season ender.  his fantasy points per game still led the league for RB's in most formats.

so to me this is mostly a matter of risk preference.    Ekeler gives you top 5 or 6 with not a lot of risk.    CMC has in my opinion a lot of risk due to the large number of games missed.  he also can come back rusty due to inactivity.   but mostly I think hes an injury waiting to happen.

Henry isnt without risk, but he provides the greatest upside of the 3.   the workload is a concern but he missed time last year and hes young enough to bounce back.   if you feel the risk is too much for him you can always switch to Ekeler who has less risk but a lower ceiling.  Hes the pick if you are more risk averse.   no major red flags.  Just not the same upside of CMC, Cook, or Henry.

Personally I'd take Henry.   first rounder should be the highest upside player with acceptable risks.   Henry is still young enough that I"m 98% sure hes got one more big year left.   if he has that big year with high usage, next year I'd downgrade him, but this year hes your guy.

if this is a keeper league I'd take Ekeler because hes younger than both and not recently injured.

As for Najee and Cook,   Cook has close to the same upside of CMC and Henry, but he gets hurt a lot too.  not as bad as CMC but bad enough.    Najee is in an offense with a new QB.   there is considerable risk there if the QB cannot perform to a decent level, teams will key on him on every play.   it will hurt his productivity until that situation gets resolved.  also the line hasnt been great, but is improving.  if that is still an issue with teams keying on him, it could be trouble.  

if I were to rank, I'd rank like this

Henry

Cook  

Ekeler (roughly even with Cook depending on preference/risk tolerance.... I just prefer Cook for the upside)

CMC

Najee

 

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9 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I think Henry has less risk than CMC.  he got hurt last year, but it wasnt a season ender.  his fantasy points per game still led the league for RB's in most formats.

so to me this is mostly a matter of risk preference.    Ekeler gives you top 5 or 6 with not a lot of risk.    CMC has in my opinion a lot of risk due to the large number of games missed.  he also can come back rusty due to inactivity.   but mostly I think hes an injury waiting to happen.

Henry isnt without risk, but he provides the greatest upside of the 3.   the workload is a concern but he missed time last year and hes young enough to bounce back.   if you feel the risk is too much for him you can always switch to Ekeler who has less risk but a lower ceiling.  Hes the pick if you are more risk averse.   no major red flags.  Just not the same upside of CMC, Cook, or Henry.

Personally I'd take Henry.   first rounder should be the highest upside player with acceptable risks.   Henry is still young enough that I"m 98% sure hes got one more big year left.   if he has that big year with high usage, next year I'd downgrade him, but this year hes your guy.

This is axually pretty spot on. 

Well, except for that stuff about maybe taking Ekeler, because no, you should still take Henry--but you otherwise aptly described why.

I'll even give it a like.

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Ekeler has Spiller right behind him, and I’ve heard that Spiller has look good in the passing game , I think mr Spiller is a late round high value.  

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For me, where CMC goes is going to be the most interesting draft day decision.

Personally, I wouldn’t take him before pick #7, after Taylor, Henry, Ekeler, Kupp, Jefferson & Chase.  And even at 7, I’d have to debate him or Harris.

He’s probably too good to pass on at 8 because that’s the spot I feel like there’s some slight drop off to the next tier.

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I certainly get the hesitation of drafting any of those RBs.

I would still select Henry 2nd overall. The upside he brings is just too much to pass up.

I figure there's about a 50/50 chance at best he's healthy all or most of the season. If he is though, you can pencil in a playoff birth and should have a good run at a title.

If not him, then I would go Cooper Kupp. Will he have as big a season as last? Probably not, but if he puts up 65% of those numbers, he's a top half WR1. If he puts up 75% of those numbers, he'll be fighting it out for the top overall WR.

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11 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Well, except for that stuff about maybe taking Ekeler, because no, you should still take Henry--but you otherwise aptly described why.

I agree with that rationale, but if a person is seriously risk averse and is determined not to take Henry, Ekeler is the guy.    the right move is Henry.  on that we agree.   you and I both know that if someone really doesnt wanna take a player they usually wont regardless of what the experts say.    Ekeler was just a second option.

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20 hours ago, Bier Meister said:

At 1.2, and jt gone, I think about Harris or cook.  
 

I am not trusting Henry without aj and Julio.

cmc and ekeler are elite when healthy.  
 

in .5 ppr, wrs are devalued a bit, so I might hold on studs like  jj, chase, Kupp (who also has injury concerns).

The new offensive regime in Minnesota is going to get a lot out of Cook.  Ekeler would be an option at #2 for me, too.

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2 minutes ago, darin3 said:

The new offensive regime in Minnesota is going to get a lot out of Cook.

He usually only lasts about 13 or 14 weeks anyway.  If they try to get more out of him, they may only have him for 10-12 weeks.

Dalvin Cook might get you to the playoffs, but at that point, you're on your own.

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1 minute ago, darin3 said:

The new offensive regime in Minnesota is going to get a lot out of Cook.  Ekeler would be an option at #2 for me, too.

As I look at the rb's... many have injury history/concerns (including cook). I am leaning towards ekeler as my #2 in ppr drafts.  cmc has burned me in recent years.   he can certainly win leagues, but misses so many games, it is hard to invest in that high pick for me.  

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25 minutes ago, Bier Meister said:

As I look at the rb's... many have injury history/concerns (including cook). I am leaning towards ekeler as my #2 in ppr drafts.  cmc has burned me in recent years.   he can certainly win leagues, but misses so many games, it is hard to invest in that high pick for me.  

RB's seem to get hurt more than other players in the offense.   Likely because they take more hits.

the particularly concerning thing about CMC is hes played like 1 or 2 games in the last couple years.   we dont know how rusty he is (or isnt) and durability is a major question mark.

The offense isnt what it was when he was last healthy either    so there are a lot more unknowns than I'm comfortable with for him.   he may be a top 3 talent but I wouldnt be drafting him top 3.   too many unknowns.     among the top 10 RB hes got a lower floor and higher ceiling than nearly all of them.    so hes a total boom/bust pick.   Thats fine if you  are willing to accept the risk.  I just dont think I'd risk a #2 overall pick on a player like that.

Henry, or Dalvin cook provide similar upside with less risk in my opinion.   

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I think it’s interesting that the Rams Head Coach today said that the rams back up Qb won’t play in the preseason, I think Stafford is going to have a problem with his shoulder, I would beware of Rams players. 

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10 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I think it’s interesting that the Rams Head Coach today said that the rams back up Qb won’t play in the preseason, I think Stafford is going to have a problem with his shoulder, I would beware of Rams players. 

I looked into it.   given what I know about the situation and what the articles suggested it felt like the shoulder issue was more a maintenance issue.   its something to watch for sure, but I feel like you may have overstated the problem.    That said, I'll look into it, but so should you.   lets see if we can get some good links to add to this.

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14 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I think it’s interesting that the Rams Head Coach today said that the rams back up Qb won’t play in the preseason, I think Stafford is going to have a problem with his shoulder, I would beware of Rams players. 

McVay and the Rams really approach the preseason differently than many teams based on what I hear locally (I'm in SoCal).  Stafford's issue IS a concern, but it may be something he can manage through.

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4 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I looked into it.   given what I know about the situation and what the articles suggested it felt like the shoulder issue was more a maintenance issue.   its something to watch for sure, but I feel like you may have overstated the problem.    That said, I'll look into it, but so should you.   lets see if we can get some good links to add to this.

Lol not my first time doing so.  But I think it’s worth looking into to.  

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2 minutes ago, darin3 said:

McVay and the Rams really approach the preseason differently than many teams based on what I hear locally (I'm in SoCal).  Stafford's issue IS a concern, but it may be something he can manage through.

Yeah maybe so, maybe it’s just nothing , but then again I find it interesting.  I’m going to down grade rams players a little. Imo. 

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