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Page 1 Domestic semiconductor production - page 2 sissy slap fight

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This is a good move. Currently ~90% of chips are manufactured in Taiwan, which for obvious reasons could come back to haunt us if we do not do something about it now.

 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/27/senate-chips-funding-bill-pass/

The Senate passed a bipartisan bill Wednesday that would provide $52 billion in subsidies to domestic semiconductor manufacturers and invest billions in science and technology innovation, in a bid to strengthen the United States’ competitiveness and self-reliance in what is seen as a keystone industry for economic and national security.

.....

About $52 billion would go to microchip manufacturers to incentivize construction of domestic semiconductor fabrication plants — or “fabs” — to make the chips, which are used in a wide variety of products, including motor vehicles, cellphones, medical equipment and military weapons.

 

 

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2 hours ago, MTSkiBum said:

This is a good move. Currently ~90% of chips are manufactured in Taiwan, which for obvious reasons could come back to haunt us if we do not do something about it now.

 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/27/senate-chips-funding-bill-pass/

The Senate passed a bipartisan bill Wednesday that would provide $52 billion in subsidies to domestic semiconductor manufacturers and invest billions in science and technology innovation, in a bid to strengthen the United States’ competitiveness and self-reliance in what is seen as a keystone industry for economic and national security.

.....

About $52 billion would go to microchip manufacturers to incentivize construction of domestic semiconductor fabrication plants — or “fabs” — to make the chips, which are used in a wide variety of products, including motor vehicles, cellphones, medical equipment and military weapons.

 

 

Well, maybe 90% of the high-end logic chips... the other 10% are probably Intel, maybe Global Foundries (spun out from AMD a while back).  A bunch older technologies, plus high-end memory fabs, are in other places around the world, including a few in the US (Micron and some joint ventures).

This really is a strategic issue, both economically and for national security.  Speaking of national security, I hope some of this money goes towards funding more advanced "trusted" fabs.  Such fabs are isolated electronically (HW and SW) and have other security in place to guarantee bad guys can't hack in.  But that is a major pain so almost nobody does it.  I think there are a few former IBM fabs in the northeast which do it, but they are on decades-old process nodes.

Thing is, these high end fabs cost, I dunno, maybe upwards of $5B to build.  Which is why it's very difficult for private companies to fund.  But a few of those will eat quickly into a $52B budget.  So hopefully this can be an ongoing thing including maintenance costs.

I'm also happy that they are funding pure research with this bill.  "Research," as opposed to development, is pie-in-the-sky investigation into unknown advances.  It is revolutionary vs. evolutionary advancement.  Private industry used to fund this, but nowadays shareholders and fund managers don't want to risk money without a predictable return, so that has largely gone by the wayside, other than university research, and even that has similar requirements from private industry.  But research is where things like the transistor come from.

Without knowing the details, this has the makings of being by far my favorite thing to come out of this administration.  :cheers: 

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If people would stop buying luxury “phones” and apple watches and needless crap all the time there’d be no shortage of chips.

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1 hour ago, jerryskids said:

Well, maybe 90% of the high-end logic chips... the other 10% are probably Intel, maybe Global Foundries (spun out from AMD a while back).  A bunch older technologies, plus high-end memory fabs, are in other places around the world, including a few in the US (Micron and some joint ventures).

This really is a strategic issue, both economically and for national security.  Speaking of national security, I hope some of this money goes towards funding more advanced "trusted" fabs.  Such fabs are isolated electronically (HW and SW) and have other security in place to guarantee bad guys can't hack in.  But that is a major pain so almost nobody does it.  I think there are a few former IBM fabs in the northeast which do it, but they are on decades-old process nodes.

Thing is, these high end fabs cost, I dunno, maybe upwards of $5B to build.  Which is why it's very difficult for private companies to fund.  But a few of those will eat quickly into a $52B budget.  So hopefully this can be an ongoing thing including maintenance costs.

I'm also happy that they are funding pure research with this bill.  "Research," as opposed to development, is pie-in-the-sky investigation into unknown advances.  It is revolutionary vs. evolutionary advancement.  Private industry used to fund this, but nowadays shareholders and fund managers don't want to risk money without a predictable return, so that has largely gone by the wayside, other than university research, and even that has similar requirements from private industry.  But research is where things like the transistor come from.

Without knowing the details, this has the makings of being by far my favorite thing to come out of this administration.  :cheers: 

 

It was bipartisan and not necessarily from one side or the other, that is why this bill does not completely suck.

 

I also read where there is a provision where they can extend it to future years, with around 100billion in additional funding. 

I know it sounds like a lot of money, but it is not, Taiwan is investing 55 billion this year alone and they are already #1 in the game.

This bill assumes companies like Intel will throw 100s of billions of dollars into chip manufacturing as well.

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1 hour ago, jerryskids said:

maybe Global Foundries (spun out from AMD a while back).  

 

Spun off from IBM.  The funny part is even though GF is domestic, Global Foundries is actually an Israeli owned company.

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1 hour ago, MTSkiBum said:

 

It was bipartisan and not necessarily from one side or the other, that is why this bill does not completely suck.

Well said. This is how politics should work. 

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2 hours ago, nobody said:

Spun off from IBM.  The funny part is even though GF is domestic, Global Foundries is actually an Israeli owned company.

From Wiki. They spun of from AMD but later acquired IBM fabs including trusted foundries.

ETA: Burlington and East Fishkill are the IBM fabs.

Quote

GlobalFoundries Inc. (GF or GloFo) is a multinational semiconductor contract manufacturing and design company incorporated in the Cayman Islands and headquartered in Malta, New York.[3] Created by the divestiture of the manufacturing arm of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), the company was privately owned by Mubadala Investment Company, the sovereign wealth fund of the United Arab Emirates, until an initial public offering (IPO) in October, 2021.

The company manufactures chips designed for markets such as mobility, automotive, computing and wired connectivity, consumer internet of things (IoT) and industrial.

As of 2021, GlobalFoundries is the fourth-largest semiconductor manufacturer; it produces chips for more than 7% of the $86 billion semiconductor manufacturing services industry.[4][5] It is the only one with operations in Singapore, the European Union, and the United States: one 200 mm and one 300 mm wafer fabrication plant in Singapore; one 300 mm plant in Dresden, Germany; one 200 mm plant in Burlington, Vermont (where it is the largest private employer)[6] and two 300 mm plants in the State of New York: one in East Fishkill and one in Malta.[7][clarification needed]

GlobalFoundries is a "Trusted Foundry" for the U.S. federal government and has similar designations in Singapore and Germany, including certified international Common Criteria standard (ISO 15408, CC Version 3.1).[8][9]

 

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Have you heard of Allied? We have one right here in Gloucester. People that work there, work there for life. it is like a cult. Until it gets slow and they are fired. 

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Just another transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich. These companies generate massive profits. They do not require taxpayer funds to do the right thing. 

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1 hour ago, Dizkneelande said:

Just another transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich. These companies generate massive profits. They do not require taxpayer funds to do the right thing. 

They don't generate massive profits, at least historically.  Currently they tend to be more profitable because supply chain issues are driving up the market prices.  But historically they have low margins.

What exactly is the "right thing?"  Build these multi-billion dollar fabs anyway?  In that event Wall Street would crucify them, management would be fired, and a bunch of people would get laid off.  Is that the right thing?

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Problem is military applications are low volume, so there is limited profit to standing up a fab process.  On the flip side, commercial companies don't care where they source chips.

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I'm gonna start a company, apply for a government grant and and make some chips.

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2 hours ago, jerryskids said:

They don't generate massive profits, at least historically.  Currently they tend to be more profitable because supply chain issues are driving up the market prices.  But historically they have low margins.

What exactly is the "right thing?"  Build these multi-billion dollar fabs anyway?  In that event Wall Street would crucify them, management would be fired, and a bunch of people would get laid off.  Is that the right thing?

It took me 2 seconds to learn Intel made 46 billion last year 

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16 minutes ago, Dizkneelande said:

It took me 2 seconds to learn Intel made 46 billion last year 

Three counter points.

  • Intel is not high tech anymore is the problem, they are only manufacturing 10nm semiconductors here in the US, this is not competitive at all with TSMC who is producing 3nm chips and is currently building a facility to manufacture sub 2 nm chips.
  • Many of these chips are not for computers.
  • The reason that these companies are making a large profit is because they are manufacturing in Asia where the cost is cheaper. It takes tax incentives for them to move to a places like the US where the cost is higher.

 

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59 minutes ago, Dizkneelande said:

It took me 2 seconds to learn Intel made 46 billion last year 

So what is the "right thing?"  I laid out what would happen if they overinvested in multi-billion dollar fabs.  And BTW they are an outlier; other American companies like TI and Micron and Onsemi don't have the ginormous cash cow of Intel data center business, and even Intel is an order of magnitude behind TSMC in process geometry as @MTSkiBumpointed out.  

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We still need to build these factories, even if the demand is not there.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-09/micron-warns-challenging-market-means-sales-may-miss-forecast

 

Micron Technology Inc., the leading US maker of memory semiconductors, became the latest chipmaker to declare that demand is falling off rapidly. It warned investors that revenue won’t meet projections, sending industry stocks tumbling.

The company said early Tuesday that fourth-quarter sales are expected to be at the low end of or below its previous guidance as customers reduce their stockpiles of unused chips. There will be “significant sequential declines in revenue and margins,” Micron said in a regulatory filing. Micron shares fell 3.7%, and the benchmark Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index dropped 4.6%. 

The Boise, Idaho-based company is the latest to reveal just how quickly demand for electronic components is declining, following a warning by Nvidia Corp. on Monday and weak reports by Intel Corp. and other chipmakers this earnings season. The majority of the pain is being felt by companies that make chips for personal computers. Consumer demand for those devices is drying up rapidly as pandemic lockdowns end and household budgets are hammered by inflation.

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1 hour ago, MTSkiBum said:

We still need to build these factories, even if the demand is not there.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-09/micron-warns-challenging-market-means-sales-may-miss-forecast

 

Micron Technology Inc., the leading US maker of memory semiconductors, became the latest chipmaker to declare that demand is falling off rapidly. It warned investors that revenue won’t meet projections, sending industry stocks tumbling.

The company said early Tuesday that fourth-quarter sales are expected to be at the low end of or below its previous guidance as customers reduce their stockpiles of unused chips. There will be “significant sequential declines in revenue and margins,” Micron said in a regulatory filing. Micron shares fell 3.7%, and the benchmark Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index dropped 4.6%. 

The Boise, Idaho-based company is the latest to reveal just how quickly demand for electronic components is declining, following a warning by Nvidia Corp. on Monday and weak reports by Intel Corp. and other chipmakers this earnings season. The majority of the pain is being felt by companies that make chips for personal computers. Consumer demand for those devices is drying up rapidly as pandemic lockdowns end and household budgets are hammered by inflation.

Yes, it's a cyclical industry.  We're coming out of the upswing, where inventory is low and customers are panicking for availability so they stockpile as much as they can.  Once they build up that buffer they'll start canceling and delaying orders, which according to the above is beginning to happen.

Also, memories are unique in that they (1) are relatively simple from a design perspective, and (2) they drive process node reductions due to density (i.e., more memory in the same space) needs.  This combo enabled the industry to be the first for Asia to take over.  Most memories are built in Asia, Micron (and maybe a JV between Micron and Intel) being the exception.

Fun geek fact:  Intel started as a memory company.  They shifted focus to processors in the 80s due to the popularity of the PC and competition from Asia.

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so basically the democrats are trumpers now.  

build the wall, america first, bring industry home.

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1 hour ago, jerryskids said:

Yes, it's a cyclical industry.  We're coming out of the upswing, where inventory is low and customers are panicking for availability so they stockpile as much as they can.  Once they build up that buffer they'll start canceling and delaying orders, which according to the above is beginning to happen.

Also, memories are unique in that they (1) are relatively simple from a design perspective, and (2) they drive process node reductions due to density (i.e., more memory in the same space) needs.  This combo enabled the industry to be the first for Asia to take over.  Most memories are built in Asia, Micron (and maybe a JV between Micron and Intel) being the exception.

Fun geek fact:  Intel started as a memory company.  They shifted focus to processors in the 80s due to the popularity of the PC and competition from Asia.

 

My brother in law works for Intel(in Albuquerque) and it has been a rough time for them up until very recently. They had a 4-5 year stretch where they were not doing good at all.

 

Also it looks like both AMD and ARM are going to be really pushing Intel for marketshare over the next decade.

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I really hope this does not derail the domestic manufacturing of semiconductors.

 

https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2022/08/us-chipmakers-hit-by-sudden-downturn-after-pandemic-boom/

After dealing with booming demand and global shortages since the start of the pandemic, the semiconductor industry is facing a sudden downturn.

But even for an industry accustomed to frequent cyclical slumps, this one has defied easy analysis and left researchers struggling to predict how the setback will play out.

The sudden glut in memory chips, PC processors and some other semiconductors has come at a time when manufacturers in many automotive and industrial markets still lack a reliable supply of chips.

It has also forced some of the biggest US chipmakers to slash billions of dollars from planned capital spending, at the very moment that Washington has passed a long-awaited law to subsidize a huge increase in domestic chip manufacturing capacity.

 

....

 

Nvidia, the biggest maker of graphics processing units, or GPUs, used in video graphics and machine learning systems, last week pre-announced an even bigger revenue miss, as sales of its gaming chips fell 44 percent from the preceding quarter. And Micron, one of the largest makers of memory chips, said its free cash flow was likely to turn negative in the next three months, after averaging $1 billion in recent quarters.

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I'd speculate that it shouldn't matter.  Domestic chip manufacturing is more of a national security issue than a supply/demand issue.

If we don't develop onshore capability, it's malpractice by the government.

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I bought 100 shares of Intel (INTC) on the day they broke ground for a domestic foundry. I have 100 shares of GFS as well. 

I see it as a National security issue, and think we need to make more pharmaceuticals in this country as well. I read that many of our troops take meds that are only available through China. What could go wrong? 

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5 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

@Raven Fan

 

This was discussed a few months ago without the trolling, and it was a bipartisan bill.

How is it trolling and doesn't the fact that it's bipartisan make it even more of a success for Biden.

So was infrastructure.  Is that not a bigly win for Biden and the country?

I know this right right forum loves to trash Biden, but he's had far more consequential legislation passed than Trump or even Obama did.  When he took office, businesses were closed, masks were required,  now it's just like pre-covid.  His admin's awesome vaccine rollout is largely responsible for this.  And inflation is coming down pretty significantly, and the inflation we've seen has largely been eaten up by wage increases.  NATO is expanded and united.  Other than the serious failings I mentioned, he's killed it. 

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43 minutes ago, Raven Fan said:

How is it trolling and doesn't the fact that it's bipartisan make it even more of a success for Biden.

So was infrastructure.  Is that not a bigly win for Biden and the country?

I know this right right forum loves to trash Biden, but he's had far more consequential legislation passed than Trump or even Obama did.  When he took office, businesses were closed, masks were required,  now it's just like pre-covid.  His admin's awesome vaccine rollout is largely responsible for this.  And inflation is coming down pretty significantly, and the inflation we've seen has largely been eaten up by wage increases.  NATO is expanded and united.  Other than the serious failings I mentioned, he's killed it. 

 

First off, that was not me that put a sad face.

Secondly, I am neither left nor right. Many here consider me far to the left though :lol:

However, I think you are giving too much credit to biden. Many of his "accomplishments" in your list would have happened with or without him. The vaccine rollout and opening of the economy would have happened the same under Trump as Biden. The reason I believe that is because largely almost all countries in the world except for China followed the same plan for vaccines and opening up of their countries. Since the whole world was basically the same in this regard I do not think it was because of the president.

Inflation is a global issue, and one of the bills that biden signed when he first came into office was directly responsible for 1-3% of the inflation we saw. Inflation would have been bad under Trump too, but Biden directly made it worse. Link below

Biden still hasn't confirmed the 3rd FCC chair to lock in net neutrality :mad:

I also do not give him credit for CHIPS bill. I give credit to the house/senate for working together with the other side.

 

 

 

 

Link for inflation:

Going with the left leaning Vox, however the paragraph below about inflation quotes economists on both the left and the right.

https://www.vox.com/23036340/biden-american-rescue-plan-inflation

There’s a range of opinion among economists on how much of the US’s higher inflation over 2021 (a 7 percentage point increase including energy and food prices, and a 5.5 percentage point increase excluding them) can be attributed to the American Rescue Plan. Michael Strain of the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute has estimated the law added 3 percentage points. Dean Baker of the left-leaning Center for Economic and Policy Research, though, put that number at 1-2 percentage points.

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16 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

You lack self awareness

Of all the posters here, the ones who call libs pedos and groomer and communist and you come at me every single time.

SAD

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1 minute ago, Raven Fan said:

Of all the posters here, the ones who call libs pedos and groomer and communist and you come at me every single time.

SAD

I think I commented to you for the first time yesterday.  You ask any one of those guys you're referencing and they'll tell you I comment on their posts plenty.  They'll even try and tell you I'm a liberal.  I try not to discriminate when it comes to really stupid posts.

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18 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

 

First off, that was not me that put a sad face.

Secondly, I am neither left nor right. Many here consider me far to the left though :lol:

However, I think you are giving too much credit to biden. Many of his "accomplishments" in your list would have happened with or without him. The vaccine rollout and opening of the economy would have happened the same under Trump as Biden. The reason I believe that is because largely almost all countries in the world except for China followed the same plan for vaccines and opening up of their countries. Since the whole world was basically the same in this regard I do not think it was because of the president.

Inflation is a global issue, and one of the bills that biden signed when he first came into office was directly responsible for 1-3% of the inflation we saw. Inflation would have been bad under Trump too, but Biden directly made it worse. Link below

Biden still hasn't confirmed the 3rd FCC chair to lock in net neutrality :mad:

I also do not give him credit for CHIPS bill. I give credit to the house/senate for working together with the other side.

 

 

 

 

Link for inflation:

Going with the left leaning Vox, however the paragraph below about inflation quotes economists on both the left and the right.

https://www.vox.com/23036340/biden-american-rescue-plan-inflation

There’s a range of opinion among economists on how much of the US’s higher inflation over 2021 (a 7 percentage point increase including energy and food prices, and a 5.5 percentage point increase excluding them) can be attributed to the American Rescue Plan. Michael Strain of the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute has estimated the law added 3 percentage points. Dean Baker of the left-leaning Center for Economic and Policy Research, though, put that number at 1-2 percentage points.

Saying Biden is responsible for 3% points of inflation is ridiculous.  But somewhere in the 1 - 2% is about right.  And yes, the 2nd covid bill was stupid.

And bipartisn legislation passed under him has nothing to do with him?  I don't think that's reasonable in the least.  For better or worse, presidents get credit for legislation passed under them.

And if you think Trump's chaotic mess of an admin would have had a vaccine rollout anything like Biden's is crazy.  Trump couldn't even coordinate getting states PPE.  They had to bid against each other.  Trump got the vaccine in secret and was not close to the proponent Biden was.  Trump's goal was 20M shots in arms by late December, they managed 1M.  Have to bigly disagree with you here.  If Trump were still around, the vaccine would be no where near as prevalent as it is now and we'd still likely be fighting covid and lockdowns. 

 

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Just now, Hawkeye21 said:

I think I commented to you for the first time yesterday.  You ask any one of those guys you're referencing and they'll tell you I comment on their posts plenty.  They'll even try and tell you I'm a liberal.  I try not to discriminate when it comes to really stupid posts.

Please share what about my OP was stupid. 

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3 minutes ago, Raven Fan said:

Of all the posters here, the ones who call libs pedos and groomer and communist and you come at me every single time.

SAD

Because he’s a rational moderate. This was a good non partisan discussion that existed long before you. You come in with your horse sh1t approach and are surprised people don’t want to hear it?

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1 minute ago, Raven Fan said:

Please share what about my OP was stupid. 

You said you weren't trolling.  You've made numerous trolling posts here.

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1 minute ago, Raven Fan said:

Please share what about my OP was stupid. 

Your praise for god Obama the worst president in my lifetime to start 

the fact that you think Biden does anything but sh1t himself all day for second 

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3 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

You said you weren't trolling.  You've made numerous trolling posts here.

What about this topic has been trolling?

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