**Look-Alike Players 2022: Keenan Allen vs. Michael Pittman**

[Fumbleweed 421]

It's time for another summer of Look-Alike Player threads...if you're new to the Board, every few days during the summer, I will try to post a thread that lists two players who are very close in value in redraft situations. Simply vote for the player you feel should be drafted first and then add comments about your selection if you would like.

This is non-PPR for Look-Alike matchups that involve RBs, WRs, or TEs. Just standard point for every 10 yards and 6 for TDs.

The fifth Look-Alike Match-up for this summer is: Keenan Allen vs. Michael Pittman. Two wide receivers who reside just outside the top ten at the position in most preseason rankings. The match-up is also one that will be detailed in an upcoming article that I wrote. 

Who should be picked first? You decide! 

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

Allen.  He's pretty much a lock for at least  100 / 1100 / 6.  Not sure Pittman gets more than 800 & 5.

[Ray_T 587]

they say hes having a great camp.   so maybe he does better this year.

[weepaws 2,450]

Allen avg .7 more points per game last season non Ppr over Pittman   

J Palmer is gaining ground, I’m taking Pittman   

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

18 hours ago, Ray_T said:

they say hes having a great camp.   so maybe he does better this year.

He might.  But I'm more confident in what I'd expect from Allen.  I also think Matt Ryan is vastly overrated.  He's been a guy where his teammates make him better, not the other way around... which is what a good QB does.  I like Pittman.  I drafted him in my keeper league, but I have lower expectations for him this year than last year.

[Mike FF Today 607]

Just posted Kirk's article on the topic...

Tale of the Tape: Keenan Allen vs. Michael Pittman Jr.

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, Mike FF Today said:

Just posted Kirk's article on the topic...

Tale of the Tape: Keenan Allen vs. Michael Pittman Jr.

Interesting that he has to project Keenan Allen for a career-low 5 TDs to make the two look more comparable.

Allen has averaged 7 TDs per year in seasons where he played at least 14 games--and has never had fewer than 6.

This is why projections are dumb.  "Draft Pittman, because I only have Allen projected for 5 TDs!"  Fine, project him for 9 TDs and see if he doesn't magically move up your rankings.

[Ray_T 587]

35 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Interesting that he has to project Keenan Allen for a career-low 5 TDs to make the two look more comparable.

I agree. Thats not  fully realistic.    but everyone is entitled to an opinion

I do think Pittman will have a better year than last year, but for their numbers to be comparable Allen has to either get injured or fall off a cliff statistically.

[Fumbleweed 421]

6 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I agree. Thats not  fully realistic.    but everyone is entitled to an opinion

I do think Pittman will have a better year than last year, but for their numbers to be comparable Allen has to either get injured or fall off a cliff statistically.

Pittman is a third year receiver. Allen is in his 10th year. Something to keep in mind. One is ascending while the other is looking to maintain. As such, using last year’s stats is short-sighted. Pittman more than doubled everything he did in Year One in Year Two. And, that’s with the erratic Wentz throwing him the ball. 

[Fumbleweed 421]

46 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Interesting that he has to project Keenan Allen for a career-low 5 TDs to make the two look more comparable.

Allen has averaged 7 TDs per year in seasons where he played at least 14 games--and has never had fewer than 6.

This is why projections are dumb.  "Draft Pittman, because I only have Allen projected for 5 TDs!"  Fine, project him for 9 TDs and see if he doesn't magically move up your rankings.

Allen played 14 games in 2014 and scored 4 TDs 

[Ray_T 587]

6 minutes ago, Fumbleweed said:

Allen played 14 games in 2014 and scored 4 TDs 

fair enough.  but historically hes done better.   This appers to be a statistical blip until proven otherwise.

but I know where you are coming from.  I just dont agree.

for the record I dont always agree with all of fftodays projections.   but I do agree with a lot of them and regardless of projections, the rankings are usually close to my own.   

like I said, I agree pittman is going to do better than last year.   so it will be closer.  i just dont agree with your take on Allen (as is my right)

[AxeElf 787]

17 minutes ago, Fumbleweed said:

Allen played 14 games in 2014 and scored 4 TDs 

I did miss that one, but it was also his second season in the league.  He hasn't had less than 6 TDs in the past five years, how about that?

[weepaws 2,450]

2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Interesting that he has to project Keenan Allen for a career-low 5 TDs to make the two look more comparable.

Allen has averaged 7 TDs per year in seasons where he played at least 14 games--and has never had fewer than 6.

This is why projections are dumb.  "Draft Pittman, because I only have Allen projected for 5 TDs!"  Fine, project him for 9 TDs and see if he doesn't magically move up your rankings.

He has Allen projected to have his second most rec yards in his career, maybe to make the two look more  comparable. 

[weepaws 2,450]

Good job OP, this was a good one.  

Thanks. 

[jrokh 567]

The only thing that makes this noteworthy, is that its non-ppr. I don't even know anyone who still plays that format, although I'm sure many still do. Regardless, Keenan Allen plays in a pass happy offense, and Pittman plays in a run heavy offense. The pick is still easily allen...

[weepaws 2,450]

Allen avg one point per game more in half ppr over Pittman last season, I think Pittman can surpass him in half ppr.  

Thanks. 

[Fumbleweed 421]

2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

fair enough.  but historically hes done better.   This appers to be a statistical blip until proven otherwise.

but I know where you are coming from.  I just dont agree.

for the record I dont always agree with all of fftodays projections.   but I do agree with a lot of them and regardless of projections, the rankings are usually close to my own.   

like I said, I agree pittman is going to do better than last year.   so it will be closer.  i just dont agree with your take on Allen (as is my right)

Of course it’s your right. Absolutely. Thanks for the thoughtful response.

[jrokh 567]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Allen avg one point per game more in half ppr over Pittman last season, I think Pittman can surpass him in half ppr.  

Thanks. 

Of course, he COULD surpass him. We are all just making our best educated guesses here. All we have is the data, and I'll line up behind player A who had 28 more targets than player B.

Thanks.

[weepaws 2,450]

Pittman is going to score more points then Allen. 

That’s even more encouraging news to take Pittman over Allen this next season, half ppr he only avg one point per game less, and with less targets, now Pittman gets to team up with a Qb that’s better imo then he has last season.  

Thanks your point helps make this decision even less debatable. 

[Super Cubs 132]

I'm more interested in Pitman vs Sutton?

[weepaws 2,450]

Need to talk with the OP.