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himmystyles

Evans vs Pittman

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Pittman, younger, his projectile is rising, not sure about Evans...kinda weird that Brady ain't in camp.

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1 minute ago, kutulu said:

Pittman, younger, his projectile is rising, not sure about Evans...kinda weird that Brady ain't in camp.

My thoughts exactly, but seems like evans is always ranked higher. I also think pittman is the better choice. 

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Evans. 

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If you want a WR who's going to get 80+ receptions, 1200+ yards, and 12+ TD's, take Evans.  If you want less than that, take Pittman.

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22 minutes ago, billythekidd44 said:

Pittman has more upside with Ryan qbing this year .

Don’t disagree, but can he out score Evans in ff in a ppr league.  He avg three points less more game last season Vs Evans in a full ppr last season, I don’t see Evans numbers changing much, so can Pittmans numbers improve that much to pass Evans , mm I think not.  

 

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2 hours ago, billythekidd44 said:

Pittman has more upside with Ryan qbing this year .

In terms of this year or in terms of long term?  This year, Evans' upside is definitely higher than Pittman's.  The Colts are going to throw the ball way less than Tampa will.  Matt Ryan isn't all that great of a QB either.  Plus, there's "system" and who's running it, to consider.  Over the last 3 seasons, Frank Reich's Colts threw the ball 513, 552, & 521 times.  Under Arians (Leftwich), in those same years, Tampa has thrown the ball 630, 626, & 731 times.  I don't expect the Colts to throw the ball much more than last year... I guess I can see getting back up to 550 like in 2020, but I think 600 is a pipe dream.  I don't envision Pittman's numbers really going up.  He had 129 targets.  Ok, let's put him at 140 for arguments sake, he caught 68% of his passes.  In Atlanta, Ridley caught 69% his rookie year and never over 68% in the 3 following years.  In 2020, Julio caught 75% (in 9 games), other than that 1 year over 68%.  Roddy White never had more than 65%.  Do you expect Pittman to hit 70% or more?  I don't.  Is he going to improve on his y/r?  TD rate?  Maybe.  How much?  I don't think a lot more.  So, let's give him 140 targets (catching 70%), for 13.5 y/r.  1 TD every 18 targets (last year it was 1 for every 21.5 targets).  You're looking at 97 receptions for 1310 yards and 8 TD's.  To me, that's his pie in the sky ceiling.

Mike Evans... no Godwin for the first few games(probably), Tampa throwing the ball 40 times per game, and no Gronk.  You're looking at Mike Evans getting 150 targets (catching 64% with Brady the last 2 years), for 15 y/r, and 1 TD every every 10 targets (that's worse than the last 2 years average of 1 every 8.3).  So, we're looking at an upside of 96 receptions for 1440 yards, and 15 TD's.  Those numbers are around Evans' career (or w/Brady), averages.  These aren't some wild willy nilly numbers.  For Evans' career, he averages 147 targets a season (the last 2 - because of the existence of Brown and Gronk), was only at 112.  Expect him to be back at his prior rate without both of them and without Godwin for the first few weeks.  For his career, he's at 15.3 y/r but 14.2 with Brady.  Expect that to be closer to his career average.  Prior to Brady, Evans averaged 1 TD every 17 targets... with Brady, that was cut in half to 8.3.  Putting him at 10 is regression to the mean despite the last 2 seasons saying otherwise.

To me, the upside is clearly in favor of Evans, especially in the TD department where in the Red Zone, it's Evans for Tampa and Taylor for Indy.

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If it were Garoppolo at QB, I'd take Deebo... I don't trust Lance.  If you do, then Deebo is the guy because while he may not get the receiving numbers, he'll be close enough where the rushing numbers make up for it.

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I still like Evans even if Jimmy G was still the Qb for the Niners.  

Pittman and Same I think are very close tough call, I think Pittman should produce better ff points with Ryan , but if the reports are true that Samuel still expects to run the ball, I say Pittman comes in third.  

Good luck very tough decisions. 

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6 hours ago, himmystyles said:

How about deebo vs either of these guys? 

Not with Lance at QB. He's not an NFL QB. 

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I’m all in on Pittman. Young, fast, allegedly has great chemistry with Ryan his ceiling is much higher than evans he could be top 3 wr next year 

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Yeah but he won’t out score Evans in ff half ppr.  

And if Samuel continues to run the ball Pittman won’t catch him either.  

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26 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Yeah but he won’t out score Evans in ff half ppr.  

And if Samuel continues to run the ball Pittman won’t catch him either.  

True but they now have all 4 rbs healthy now and that’s the real reason deebo scored so many points And now throw in a rookie qb basically and I can’t see deebo being a top 3 wr next year. And no offense to Matt beery the new honk at roto he has Pittman behind guys like hill and Allen Robinson and Diontae which Pittman will def score more baring injury. 

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30 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Yeah but he won’t out score Evans in ff half ppr.  

And if Samuel continues to run the ball Pittman won’t catch him either.  

I think he’s better than evans in half or full ppr 

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Debo is going to be used like last year.  They didn’t give him that contract with those incentives to not use him that way.  Lance is better than everyone thinks.

Indy is going to open up that offense.  They brought in a very good QB to do so.  Taylor’s touches are going to go down because the Colts want to be more balanced.  Pittman really has no competition in being that WR Ryan will feed early and often just as he’s done throughout his entire career.

Yes, Evans will get his but there are red flags.  Also, don’t sleep on Julio.  He’s a huge target, and will eat more than most think.  It won’t be anything close to the Moss resurrection, but he’s going to take quality looks away from Evans.

Debo, Pittman, Evans in that order 

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2 hours ago, Lamb of God said:

True but they now have all 4 rbs healthy now and that’s the real reason deebo scored so many points And now throw in a rookie qb basically and I can’t see deebo being a top 3 wr next year. And no offense to Matt beery the new honk at roto he has Pittman behind guys like hill and Allen Robinson and Diontae which Pittman will def score more baring injury. 

I wouldn’t say all four are now healthy, Mitchel isn’t , plus as a season rolls along injuries mount up.  I don’t disagree that Samuel won’t be a top three , but he doesn’t need to be to out produce Pittman.  

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2 hours ago, Lamb of God said:

I think he’s better than evans in half or full ppr 

That’s okay, let’s see what happens.  

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2 hours ago, JagFan said:

Debo is going to be used like last year.  They didn’t give him that contract with those incentives to not use him that way.  Lance is better than everyone thinks.

Indy is going to open up that offense.  They brought in a very good QB to do so.  Taylor’s touches are going to go down because the Colts want to be more balanced.  Pittman really has no competition in being that WR Ryan will feed early and often just as he’s done throughout his entire career.

Yes, Evans will get his but there are red flags.  Also, don’t sleep on Julio.  He’s a huge target, and will eat more than most think.  It won’t be anything close to the Moss resurrection, but he’s going to take quality looks away from Evans.

Debo, Pittman, Evans in that order 

That’s a tough one to predict, Taylor’s numbers going down would depend on many variables, if Taylor numbers go down some, I would imagine that Hines targets will climb up into the 80 or so range.   

Julio isn’t a huge target and won’t eat into much targets.  Gronk is no longer  playing so he might get some of those targets I guess.  

Gage is also on the team, I don’t see red flags , I see 80 plus rec 12 plus tds or somewhere in that territory. 

 

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I like the fact that it’s getting closer to my drafts and Pittman’s stock is raising, heck I might even draft him.  

So I hope everyone is right.  

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

That’s a tough one to predict, Taylor’s numbers going down would depend on many variables, if Taylor numbers go down some, I would imagine that Hines targets will climb up into the 80 or so range.   

Julio isn’t a huge target and won’t eat into much targets.  Gronk is no longer  playing so he might get some of those targets I guess.  

Gage is also on the team, I don’t see red flags , I see 80 plus rec 12 plus tds or somewhere in that territory. 

 

I’m not saying I’d avoid any of those 3, and would take any of them in the same range.  I just prefer them in that order.  And yes, Julio was brought in the replace Gronk’s void, but there are red flags.  The biggest of which is Brady’s age and absence from camp…for whatever reason.

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5 hours ago, JagFan said:

I’m not saying I’d avoid any of those 3, and would take any of them in the same range.  I just prefer them in that order.  And yes, Julio was brought in the replace Gronk’s void, but there are red flags.  The biggest of which is Brady’s age and absence from camp…for whatever reason.

No red flags at this time for me, if he’s not back after this weekend then the red flags will start to fly.  

 

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On 8/19/2022 at 9:20 AM, billythekidd44 said:

Pittman has more upside with Ryan qbing this year .

You sure about that?

He was pretty crappy last season. The Falcons let him go for Marcus Mariota for Christ's sake!

Maybe a change of scenery will help him, but I think there's a good chance he's just washed up

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11 minutes ago, polecatt said:

He was pretty crappy last season. The Falcons let him go for Marcus Mariota for Christ's sake!

He also was playing on what may have been one of the worst supporting rosters in the NFL.   

I think its more likely he wanted a final chance to win a superbowl and advised his team hed like this and they gave him what he wanted so he has one last shot at it.

Team knew they had to rebuild anyhow and with Ryan good enough to sometimes force his team to win, there is no bottoming out while he is on the roster.

 

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Ryan had a pretty darn good season last year, like Ray said, he didn’t have much help.  

Ryan is now on a better team, and he’s going to be a true benefit to a young and very talented player like mr Pittman.  I see Pittman posting numbers similar yo last season or a little bit better, Ryan will also use players like Campbell if he can just stay healthy, but Hines is a player in half ppr I really would like to try to draft late, I can see him getting 80 plus targets from Ryan.  

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On 8/19/2022 at 11:26 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

In terms of this year or in terms of long term?  This year, Evans' upside is definitely higher than Pittman's.  The Colts are going to throw the ball way less than Tampa will.  Matt Ryan isn't all that great of a QB either.  Plus, there's "system" and who's running it, to consider.  Over the last 3 seasons, Frank Reich's Colts threw the ball 513, 552, & 521 times.  Under Arians (Leftwich), in those same years, Tampa has thrown the ball 630, 626, & 731 times.  I don't expect the Colts to throw the ball much more than last year... I guess I can see getting back up to 550 like in 2020, but I think 600 is a pipe dream.  I don't envision Pittman's numbers really going up.  He had 129 targets.  Ok, let's put him at 140 for arguments sake, he caught 68% of his passes.  In Atlanta, Ridley caught 69% his rookie year and never over 68% in the 3 following years.  In 2020, Julio caught 75% (in 9 games), other than that 1 year over 68%.  Roddy White never had more than 65%.  Do you expect Pittman to hit 70% or more?  I don't.  Is he going to improve on his y/r?  TD rate?  Maybe.  How much?  I don't think a lot more.  So, let's give him 140 targets (catching 70%), for 13.5 y/r.  1 TD every 18 targets (last year it was 1 for every 21.5 targets).  You're looking at 97 receptions for 1310 yards and 8 TD's.  To me, that's his pie in the sky ceiling.

Mike Evans... no Godwin for the first few games(probably), Tampa throwing the ball 40 times per game, and no Gronk.  You're looking at Mike Evans getting 150 targets (catching 64% with Brady the last 2 years), for 15 y/r, and 1 TD every every 10 targets (that's worse than the last 2 years average of 1 every 8.3).  So, we're looking at an upside of 96 receptions for 1440 yards, and 15 TD's.  Those numbers are around Evans' career (or w/Brady), averages.  These aren't some wild willy nilly numbers.  For Evans' career, he averages 147 targets a season (the last 2 - because of the existence of Brown and Gronk), was only at 112.  Expect him to be back at his prior rate without both of them and without Godwin for the first few weeks.  For his career, he's at 15.3 y/r but 14.2 with Brady.  Expect that to be closer to his career average.  Prior to Brady, Evans averaged 1 TD every 17 targets... with Brady, that was cut in half to 8.3.  Putting him at 10 is regression to the mean despite the last 2 seasons saying otherwise.

To me, the upside is clearly in favor of Evans, especially in the TD department where in the Red Zone, it's Evans for Tampa and Taylor for Indy.

What’s the truth to Brady not wanting to drop back 600+ times again this year and being one of the reasons for coming back was Arians moving on and that philosophy exiting the building??  

Also, how do you think Brady’s performance on this seasons upcoming “masked singer” will play out in relation to Evan’s red zone looks? 
 

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41 minutes ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

What’s the truth to Brady not wanting to drop back 600+ times again this year and being one of the reasons for coming back was Arians moving on and that philosophy exiting the building??  

Also, how do you think Brady’s performance on this seasons upcoming “masked singer” will play out in relation to Evan’s red zone looks? 
 

Ah-Ha!

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43 minutes ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

What’s the truth to Brady not wanting to drop back 600+ times again this year and being one of the reasons for coming back was Arians moving on and that philosophy exiting the building??  

Also, how do you think Brady’s performance on this seasons upcoming “masked singer” will play out in relation to Evan’s red zone looks? 
 

I dont know if there is truth to this or not.

I think Brady wants to win.   I dont think he cares how many passes he has to throw to get the win.

maybe he thinks a more balanced offense is the way to go and someone twisted it into he doent want to throw as many passes.   hard to say with these things.

in all liklihood he wants to be able to audible more at the line and doesnt like having as many plays predetermined (or something of the like)

I am pretty sure Brady does not care if the team threw the ball 40 times or 4 times so long as it gives his team the best chance to win.

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2 hours ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

What’s the truth to Brady not wanting to drop back 600+ times again this year and being one of the reasons for coming back was Arians moving on and that philosophy exiting the building??  

Also, how do you think Brady’s performance on this seasons upcoming “masked singer” will play out in relation to Evan’s red zone looks? 
 

LOL, lot of rumor mill crap flying around out there, eh?  Hahaha.

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21 hours ago, Ray_T said:

He also was playing on what may have been one of the worst supporting rosters in the NFL.   

I think its more likely he wanted a final chance to win a superbowl and advised his team hed like this and they gave him what he wanted so he has one last shot at it.

Team knew they had to rebuild anyhow and with Ryan good enough to sometimes force his team to win, there is no bottoming out while he is on the roster.

 

Perhaps, but for fantasy purposes, I don't ever feel optimistic about a guy over 35 who has a significant drop in production from one year to the next, especially when it's a franchise QB who switched teams. It's worked for Peyton Manning but not so much for guys like Phillip Rivers.  I put Matt Ryan in the Phillip Rivers category

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3 minutes ago, polecatt said:

Perhaps, but for fantasy purposes, I don't ever feel optimistic about a guy over 35 who has a significant drop in production from one year to the next, especially when it's a franchise QB who switched teams. It's worked for Peyton Manning but not so much for guys like Phillip Rivers.  I put Matt Ryan in the Phillip Rivers category

fair enough

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Ended up going evans before a lot of these posts may have swung my pick the other way lol. Pittman went one pick after. We’ll see how it plays out. 

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3 hours ago, polecatt said:

Perhaps, but for fantasy purposes, I don't ever feel optimistic about a guy over 35 who has a significant drop in production from one year to the next, especially when it's a franchise QB who switched teams. It's worked for Peyton Manning but not so much for guys like Phillip Rivers.  I put Matt Ryan in the Phillip Rivers category

Based on the fact that Ryan’s best available playmaker was a rookie te, he had a good season , a drop in production of course , his best play maker was a rookie te.   

He’s going to be surrounded with a much better supportive set of playmakers that would raise his ff production.  

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