WR keeper - Higgins @ 4 or M. Brown @ 9

[Cretins 21]

4-player keeper league, non PPR.  Already keeping Dalvin Cook, Kyler Murray and JK Dobbins.  Now trying to figure out the last keeper.  I've narrowed it down to Higgins in the 4th round or Marquis Brown in the 9th. 

If all were even it would be Higgins in a heartbeat, but there's the round differential to consider here.  Brown @ 9 is technically a better value up front, but the question is whether or not Brown + potential 4th round pick will out perform Higgins + potential 9th round pick.  Brown could put up some great numbers in the first few games, but I can't see it keeping up once Nuke returns.  

 

[weepaws 2,459]

I like Brown based on the 9th pick, plus he’s going to be the wr1 with his bud Murray at Qb for the first 6 games.  

Now I have a question, if you kept Higgins what’s the chances you can get Brown back?m

 

 

[Cretins 21]

10 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I like Brown based on the 9th pick, plus he’s going to be the wr1 with his bud Murray at Qb for the first 6 games.  

Now I have a question, if you kept Higgins what’s the chances you can get Brown back?m

 

 

That's a hard one to predict without seeing everyone's keepers yet.  I do know one manager who's pretty high on him, so it wouldn't surprise me if he reached for him. 

I love Brown's early season potential, but I'll be annoyed later in the season if he crashes down to earth and Higgins explodes.  I'm also a Bengals fan, so trying to not to look at this through Homer glasses!  

[weepaws 2,459]

I agree , that’s what I like about Brown is his early season potential, he could be a low wr1 most of those first six games.  

When Hopkins returns its when it gets tricky to own him. And we know Burrow is a good Qb to support both Higgins and Chase, not to sure about Murray imo. 

If you have someone that’s going to take M Brown then that does get tricky. 

I was thinking a two for one would work. But that does depend on everyone else’s thoughts about Mr Brown. 

Question, if you keep Brown and lose Higgins how much does that bother you? 

If you keep Higgins and lose Brown how much does that bother you, sometimes it just comes down to that , for me it does sometimes. Always a pleasure to talk ff with you. 

Good luck this was a good one, tough decision. 

[Ray_T 590]

Higgins is your guy. 

 

The ADP on Brown is still pretty good.

Higgins ADP is like #35  suggesting tail end of round 3 for a player you are giving up a 4th round pick to get.

Brown's ADP is 60 which suggests end of round 5 or beginning of round 6 for the price of a 9th round pick.

if you have to give up a round 4 pick for higgins, and you pick early in round 4, you may actually have a chance to get him back.  I'd say odds are like nearly 50% if you pick in the first 2 picks of round 4.   but given the price you could likely get a WR with a similiar projected total in round 4.

first I'd go through the ADP list and look at teams probable keepers to get a feel for what is likely to be available going into the draft.

normally I say the best player is usually the best deal but in this case I'm not so sure.  if you are picking early round 4, I'd lean towards Keeping Brown.

if picking late in round 4 then Higgins may be the better bet unless you expect lots of WR talent to be around when you pick.

sorry I cant be more specific.   but in this case I'm recommending you keep Brown.

[MTSkiBum 1,594]

M Brown for me, although I am not extremely high on him.

 

Too many mouths to feed in Cincy.

[JT88-3013 9]

I think you get better value w Brown in the 9th

[Cretins 21]

Thanks for the input guys.  There was one other wrinkle to the equation that I wasn't thinking about with my initial post.  Keeping Brown would also have push another keeper from 9 to 8 due to the way the mechanics of our league work, so really the choice was...

- Higgins + 8th round pick

- Brown + 4th round pick

Given that there will be 40 players off the board already and I'm missing my 1st round pick to start (Cook), I figure the WR picking could be pretty slim by the time I get my 2nd round pick (2.02).  I ended up keeping Higgins in the 4th.