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Aaron Rodgers on his Rookie WRs

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Just now, listen2me 23 said:

Ok.  Here you go.  I won't give you any range of outcomes.  He will be a WR2 if healthy for most of the games.  

In my eyes he is safe to cover his ADP with a good amount of room for upside.  

You think he has no upside because he didnt get targeted over Davante Adams.  That is fine.  We will see.  

Also lol at Tonyan leading in targets.  In 16 games in his breakout year he had 59 targets.  He doesn't get volume and they play several TEs depending on situation.   

THAT's tangible.  That's a decent ceiling.  I don't agree, but we don't have to

No, I don't think he has that upside because I don't think he's done enough to distinguish himself above the guys who are there currently.  I think they're all about the same, in terms of ability to catch the ball.  It's also why I think Tonyan will be the leader in targets in the end.

I think 2022 will be much like 2020 with exception of no Adams, so yes, that's why I think Tonyan leads the team in targets.  After Adams, it was MVS & Aaron Jones with 63 targets, then it was Tonyan & Lazard.  Replace Adams & MVS with Amari Rodgers, Doubs, Watkins, Watson, and & Cobb, and you have a lot of guys (including Lazard & Tonyan), getting 50 to 90 targets.  I don't think the volume will be there for Lazard to get much more than what he did last year.

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7 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

Maybe Rodgers is just gassing him up

of course he is.   

his job is to speak highly of all his WR and to do whatever it takes to motovate them to play for  him.

the general rule is praise in public.    criticize in private.

sometimes it goes down the path of public shaming but usually not in cases like this.    Thats usually reserved for the divas of the team and/or the QB's.

thats one of the things that makes navigating this situation difficult.   they are saying good things about a lot of the WR in Green Bay right now.

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Just now, TBayXXXVII said:

THAT's tangible.  That's a decent ceiling.  I don't agree, but we don't have to

No, I don't think he has that upside because I don't think he's done enough to distinguish himself above the guys who are there currently.  

I do. It is called experience with Rodgers and the system.   Something only 1 other WR has in the room.   Goes along way in GB.  

Amari was drafted higher than Doubs.  Didnt play.  Rodgers doesn't care for him.  

If they went out and traded up for Chris Olave.   Or signed Allen Robinson I could partially agree with you guys.   But that isnt the case.  

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Just now, Ray_T said:

of course he is.   

his job is to speak highly of all his WR and to do whatever it takes to motovate them to play for  him.

the general rule is praise in public.    criticize in private.

sometimes it goes down the path of public shaming but usually not in cases like this.    Thats usually reserved for the divas of the team and/or the QB's.

thats one of the things that makes navigating this situation difficult.   they are saying good things about a lot of the WR in Green Bay right now.

Rodgers just criticized all the young WRs very publicly 

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10 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

Rodgers just criticized all the young WRs very publicly 

did he point one out specifically or did he just criticize the group?

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14 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

Rodgers just criticized all the young WRs very publicly 

and if we are gonna discuss the quote do you mind posting it so we can look at it?     makes it easier for us to have a reasonable conversation

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Just now, Ray_T said:

did he point one out specifically or did he just criticize the group?

From practice that day we knew who he was talking about.   He said, which is right on traditional Rodgers thinking.  Paraphrasing "if you drop the ball or make mental errors over day 1 stuff....you aren't getting the ball.  You aren't playing.  

Maybe they lean on the rookies.  Maybe the rooks come in with a veteran temperament.    Maybe they compete for the most targets.  As a Packers fan that would be great.  Lazard can sit in his big slot roll and do his unheralded things and Doubs and Watson can ball out.  Trust me Id love that.  We would know we hit on our next stud WRs early.  Like 2 years earlier than we found out with Jordy and Adams.  

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3 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

and if we are gonna discuss the quote do you mind posting it so we can look at it?     makes it easier for us to have a reasonable conversation

Sure I will use Google for you.

"The young guys, especially young receivers, we've got to be way more consistent," Rodgers said, per ESPN. "A lot of drops, a lot of bad route decisions, running the wrong route. We've got to get better in that area."

You keep dropping the ball, you're not going to be out there. It's going to be the most reliable guys that are out there. The preparation and the job responsibility is most important. There's going to be physical mistakes, like we've talked about, but if you're going out there and dropping the ball and somebody else behind you is in the right spot all the time and catching the ball, that guy's going to play.

"We're going to play our best guys when the season starts," Rodgers said. "And whoever those guys are, those guys are going to get the reps. It's the guys I trust the most and the guys the coaches trust the most."

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The above is an endorsement for Juwann Winfree in all likelihood.   It will be interesting to see if he can make thr team this year after 2 good camps in a row.  They dont like to keep 7.  And Amari shouod be the one out but since he was a 3rd round pick last year that they traded up for....they in all likelihood will not cut him.

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Lazard in a vacuum at his ADP does sound enticing. But when compared to other receivers around that ADP, it becomes more of a question. For example, if you could only have 1 which do you prefer: Elijah Moore (96),  Bobby Trees (99), Aiyuk (100), Lazard (102), or Christian Kirk (108)? 
FFC ADP- half ppr. 

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Woods, Lazard would be my second.  

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51 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

Sure I will use Google for you.

"The young guys, especially young receivers, we've got to be way more consistent," Rodgers said, per ESPN. "A lot of drops, a lot of bad route decisions, running the wrong route. We've got to get better in that area."

You keep dropping the ball, you're not going to be out there. It's going to be the most reliable guys that are out there. The preparation and the job responsibility is most important. There's going to be physical mistakes, like we've talked about, but if you're going out there and dropping the ball and somebody else behind you is in the right spot all the time and catching the ball, that guy's going to play.

"We're going to play our best guys when the season starts," Rodgers said. "And whoever those guys are, those guys are going to get the reps. It's the guys I trust the most and the guys the coaches trust the most."

yeah, he was addressing the group.  not one individual.   different kind of criticism and it happens all the time.

and this is a common messages sent to both rookies and vets (but usually directed to rookies.)

the other one, in its various forms is a twist on one I saw from Tony Romo that I particularly liked where he said, when you run a route I expect you to be in a certain place at a certain point of the play, if you are not where you are supposed to be you dont get the ball.

also very common for that one to go to rookies even if this particular message by Mr. Romo was not directed at a rookie.

this is normal pre season banter.  not atypical at all. and notice how one particular player was not singled out (even though one was probably more to blame than anyone else)

trust me.  I'd bet money that not every single rookie has a problem with drops, but at least one or two do.   do we know which ones those are?    unless you watch camp, you do not.  and neither do I.

best we can do is look at who is dropping passes in pre season action and speculate.

This is not a public shaming but one step away from it because the person doing it wasnt singled out.

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22 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Lazard in a vacuum at his ADP does sound enticing. But when compared to other receivers around that ADP, it becomes more of a question. For example, if you could only have 1 which do you prefer: Elijah Moore (96),  Bobby Trees (99), Aiyuk (100), Lazard (102), or Christian Kirk (108)? 
FFC ADP- half ppr. 

well thats the whole point isnt it?   you can pick him, or you can pick a player with more certainty attached to their projections.

not a criticism.  just a fact.

a players projections are normally what you consider to be the most likely outcome, but often end up being the midpoint of most possible outcomes because every player has a floor and every player has a ceiling.

Lazard is one who has a low floor for a WR1 and  a medium ceiling.

but his floor is way low, so you likely draft him somewhere between the two because it is not a lock that this guy produces as a WR1.   he might.  and I hope he does.  but you need to balance out the risks and possible benefits.

Id rather have most of the players you mentioned here.   not because I like them better, but because there is more certainty around their situation.

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Moore, Aiyuk, Kirk I think have less certainty at Qb then does Lazard.   

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11 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Moore, Aiyuk, Kirk I think have less certainty at Qb then does Lazard.   

but more certainty in terms of historical production.    all have had seasons where they have had 1000 yards or came close or (in the case of Aiyuk) projected  out to close to that total if they played the full season.

also more certainty in terms of the role they will play on their teams.

to me thats more certainty.

The Better QB helps, but its not everything

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34 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

but more certainty in terms of historical production.    all have had seasons where they have had 1000 yards or came close or (in the case of Aiyuk) projected  out to close to that total if they played the full season.

also more certainty in terms of the role they will play on their teams.

to me thats more certainty.

The Better QB helps, but its not everything

Of that bunch I would take Woods, Lazard based on the certainty of the Qb.  

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8 hours ago, weepaws said:

Thanks, what about Robinson, any thought about how he might be used this season? 

I don't think the offense will be good enough to support many viable fantasy options. I am fading Giants besides Toney. I'd take Barkley but not at his ADP

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3 hours ago, jrokh said:

Lazard in a vacuum at his ADP does sound enticing. But when compared to other receivers around that ADP, it becomes more of a question. For example, if you could only have 1 which do you prefer: Elijah Moore (96),  Bobby Trees (99), Aiyuk (100), Lazard (102), or Christian Kirk (108)? 
FFC ADP- half ppr. 

Aiyuk (100)

Elijah Moore (96)

Bobby Trees (99),

Lazard (102),

Christian Kirk (108)

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2 hours ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

I don't think the offense will be good enough to support many viable fantasy options. I am fading Giants besides Toney. I'd take Barkley but not at his ADP

Thanks. 

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13 hours ago, Ray_T said:

but more certainty in terms of historical production.    all have had seasons where they have had 1000 yards or came close or (in the case of Aiyuk) projected  out to close to that total if they played the full season.

also more certainty in terms of the role they will play on their teams.

to me thats more certainty.

The Better QB helps, but its not everything

Do you like Aiyuk more this season with Lance at Qb , or going into last season with Jimmy G at Qb? 

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6 hours ago, weepaws said:

Do you like Aiyuk more this season with Lance at Qb , or going into last season with Jimmy G at Qb? 

this question probably deserves its own thread.

but its a mixed bag for me.     here is why:

what I like:

-Apparently Aiyuk has worked out with Lance through the summer

-the two look to have established a connection from all reports in camp

-Aiyuk has alsko apparently looked good in camp, no sign of him being sent back to the doghouse

-despite what I said about Lance last year, its clear hes worked on his mechanics in the offseason.   perhaps the game has slowed down for him a bit in his second year.  he looks more confident and he seems more decisive and his throwing motion looks a lot cleaner than it did last year.    this is a preliminary judgement as sometimes once you face real opposition you can revert, but the early reports look good.   I went out of my way to watch a couple of exhibition games because I wanted to see if hes fixed some of the things that plagued him in his rookie year.

to summarize, for sure he is better than last year.  no doubt about that.  he actually looks like an NFL QB.   last year he looked like Tim Teebow.   it wasnt a good look for him

 

what I dislike: 

Lance is a lesser QB than Garoppolo. (at least in terms of throwing)   I still stand by that statement......he may make up for it when he runs the ball, but that wont help the receivers.

 

Intangibles

Aiyuk got 750 yards in like 12 games his rookie year.  half of those games with Mullens and Beathard at QB.  they are lesser QB than both Jimmy G and Lance.  looking at the gamelog, he played well with Jimmy G that year but looked to break out later in the year with the lesser QB.  so he broke out despite having an inferior QB.

Thats why I am still buying at his ADP

I think the connection with Lance and the fact he was able to produce reasonably well with lesser QB in his rookie year make me think he is probably still a good buy.  He didnt produce early last year because he was in Shannys doghouse and Shanny doesnt care how big a star you are.   if you dont do things exactly his way, you see the bench. 

so I am still buying at his ADP or slightly earlier. 

I think the potential benefits at that point in the draft still outweigh the risks.

 

 

 

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That wasn’t my question, I’m simply asking do you like Aiyuk more going into this season with Lance at Qb , or going into last season with Jimmy G at Qb?  You have said often how you would feel more comfortable taking Samuel or Aiyuk with Jimmy G at Qb over Lance.  

 

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Anyway, I’m working on my final rankings getting ready to travel to do some real life drafts, based on my own rankings, and Doug’s big board, Doug has him ranked at #37 half ppr, I’m moving Lazard up into my wr3 rankings, I first said wr5, but I trust Rodgers at Qb, and Lazard without question based on the Packers current WRs is going to be the lead wr , and with Rodgers at Qb I cant but see him worthy of at least a flex play.  

 

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16 minutes ago, weepaws said:

That wasn’t my question, I’m simply asking do you like Aiyuk more going into this season with Lance at Qb , or going into last season with Jimmy G at Qb?  You have said often how you would feel more comfortable taking Samuel or Aiyuk with Jimmy G at Qb over Lance.  

 

honestly I like Aiyuk about the same, but as per my explanation above there were special circumstances around that.

the person in that offense I'd be most worried about is Deebo.   he had a special connection with Jimmy G and one that may not be replicated with another QB.  You could (in theory) even bring in Aaron Rodgers to QB the team and its possible he may not find the same connection Jimmy G had with him.   

whenever a WR has a special connection to his QB there is no guarantee that you replicate that even with a better QB.   So Deebo (much as I like him) is a guy I'm not buying anywhere close to his ADP.  and if the connection with Lance and Aiyuk is as good as the reports say, he may never repeat that year he had last year.   (granted the rushing yards will soften the fantasy blow) 

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2 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Anyway, I’m working on my final rankings getting ready to travel to do some real life drafts, based on my own rankings, and Doug’s big board, I’m moving Lazard up into my wr3 rankings, I first said wr5, but I trust Rodgers at Qb, and Lazard without question based on the Packers current WRs is going to be the lead wr , and with Rodgers at Qb I cant but see him worthy of at least a flex play.  

 

WR3-4 is fine for Lazard.  thats probably where he should be.   I'm just suggesting you dont draft him higher.

as I"ve said before there is not a huge difference between a high end WR4 and a low end WR3.   but thats where I rank him.   I'm just not expecting WR2 or WR1 production out of him.  If I had him and I got it, I'd be happy, but I'm betting on Low end WR3.

the previous poster gave the impression he was expecting much more.  I disagree.   

it can happen.  I'm just not betting on it nor am I drafting for that.

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48 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

honestly I like Aiyuk about the same, but as per my explanation above there were special circumstances around that.

the person in that offense I'd be most worried about is Deebo.   he had a special connection with Jimmy G and one that may not be replicated with another QB.  You could (in theory) even bring in Aaron Rodgers to QB the team and its possible he may not find the same connection Jimmy G had with him.   

whenever a WR has a special connection to his QB there is no guarantee that you replicate that even with a better QB.   So Deebo (much as I like him) is a guy I'm not buying anywhere close to his ADP.  and if the connection with Lance and Aiyuk is as good as the reports say, he may never repeat that year he had last year.   (granted the rushing yards will soften the fantasy blow) 

I didn’t like Aiyuk based on his ADP last season, but I do this season, I agree I think he’s going to be a good fit for Lance.  

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47 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

WR3-4 is fine for Lazard.  thats probably where he should be.   I'm just suggesting you dont draft him higher.

as I"ve said before there is not a huge difference between a high end WR4 and a low end WR3.   but thats where I rank him.   I'm just not expecting WR2 or WR1 production out of him.  If I had him and I got it, I'd be happy, but I'm betting on Low end WR3.

the previous poster gave the impression he was expecting much more.  I disagree.   

it can happen.  I'm just not betting on it nor am I drafting for that.

Yeah I agree, I’m looking at low wr3, with Rodgers as his Qb that could pay off.  I mean he did score 8 tds last even with Adams on the team.  And when I keep visiting that roster, I don’t see any one else being their top wr target at least for the first half of the season , of course Lazard must stay on the field.   

Thanks Ray great conversation 

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2 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I didn’t like Aiyuk based on his ADP last season, but I do this season, I agree I think he’s going to be a good fit for Lance.  

well only time will tell.  

there is risk there, but if there wasnt his ADP would be a whole lot higher.

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Aiyuk current ADP is very attractive.  Unlike last season.  

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On 8/26/2022 at 3:59 PM, weepaws said:

Of that bunch I would take Woods, Lazard based on the certainty of the Qb.  

I intentionally avoided Woods to draft Lazard - and Burks. I just don't see a guy over the 30 hump and coming off an injury having higher upside than either of them. I also drafted Aiyuk.

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57 minutes ago, IMMensaMind said:

I intentionally avoided Woods to draft Lazard - and Burks. I just don't see a guy over the 30 hump and coming off an injury having higher upside than either of them. I also drafted Aiyuk.

agree.

Woods is less than 12 months removed from ACL surgery and over 30 years old.   its even possible he is done.  but at the very least, he wont likely be highly productive until later in the year.   Even then...... there is no guarantee.   hes on the wrong side of 30.   injury recovery generally isnt as good at this age.

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2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

its even possible he is done.  but at the very least, he wont likely be highly productive until later in the year.

Are you just talking out of your butt or something?  This is nothing like the story coming out of Titans' camp, where Woods has been the best WR they have.

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5 hours ago, IMMensaMind said:

I intentionally avoided Woods to draft Lazard - and Burks. I just don't see a guy over the 30 hump and coming off an injury having higher upside than either of them. I also drafted Aiyuk.

Yeah good point. I’m still going to take a late pick on Woods if available and if I need to. And I too changed my mind about Lazard I have him  ahead of Woods   

Good luck 

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For my WRs 4 - 8 (deep bench and we can start 5 WRs) I drafted Woods, Aiyuk, Olave, and Deandre Hopkins each for less than Lazard in an auction draft.

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2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Are you just talking out of your butt or something?  This is nothing like the story coming out of Titans' camp, where Woods has been the best WR they have.

they always say that stuff.

the only person I can think of who has come back in less than a year and lit it up was Adrian Petersen.   

if he is as good as before, he got lucky.   Most players take 18 months to fully heal.   12 months is good enough to be cleared to play but you are usually not playing at 100%.

The fact hes doing this over the age of 30..... highly improbable.

I'll admit its probably not impossible.   but it is reasonable to adjust your expectations based on the injury and I'm not wrong about that.  Because many younger men are not fully ready less than a year after this type of injury and subsequent surgery.

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On 8/26/2022 at 3:34 PM, Ray_T said:

  do we know which ones those are?    unless you watch camp, you do not.  and neither do I.

best we can do is look at who is dropping passes in pre season action and speculate.

That was a long winded post.

I read the play by play Packers beat writers give on twitter from training camp and the joint practices with the Saints.  Doubs has made plays but has dropped the ball several times in camp and in the preseason.  

I took Doubs in the last round of a draft I did Sunday.   

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14 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

That was a long winded post.

I read the play by play Packers beat writers give on twitter from training camp and the joint practices with the Saints.  Doubs has made plays but has dropped the ball several times in camp and in the preseason.  

I took Doubs in the last round of a draft I did Sunday.   

thanks for the info.  I was trying to figure if he was specifically the guy coaches were speaking to.  

to me hes the only rookie with a chance to breakout and be fantasy relevant, so I'm not so much worried if the coaches were speaking  mostly to other rookies.

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I think the Packers would be happy if the young guys clicked and produced some by the end of the season for the playoff run.  I think they will all have limited snaps early on.    But injury or desperation can change that.  Perhaps they can live with some mistakes if they can just make splash plays as well since they are fairly hard up for playmakers.   

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Also the room may not be done as they were in talks with Jags for Shenault.  

Winfree did get released and I expect him on the PS yet again.  Hopefully thry consulted with Rodgers on that one as he went out of his way to praise Winfree.  

I would love for them to land Tyler Johnson who TB just released.    

Other options still out there are Will Fuller.  Reagor in a trade.  

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