Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Sean Mooney

Sean Mooney's 2022 Season Drafts- DRAFT #6 UPDATED

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Agreed, but you can’t have it both ways. Last year Andrews outscored Goedert/Ertz/Kmet, by over 100 points each in half ppr. By your own admission Andrew’s past performance would indicate he would do it again this year. I don’t buy it but your logic is flawed…

Your application of my logic is flawed.  Projections are all made-up numbers, that is my point.  The best place to start with projections is on the basis of past performance.  Past performance is not the only indicator, however.

My "logic" is that if your stumbling block for drafting Kmet instead of Andrews is projections, that's easily fixed by changing the projections.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

The top 3 Titans receivers last year combined for 132 receptions, 1,779 yards, and 10 TDs.  Tennessee never had a passing game to lose.  Defenses can't stack the box against him any more than they already do--he faces 8 in the box on almost every play as it is.  Last year only Taylor and Najee faced more 8-in-the-box situations than Henry--and Henry only played 8 games!

So, the passing game and stacked boxes are a non-factor.

I disagree. I also do not trust he will last with the heavy usage.  I am ok letting someone else assume the risk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Your application of my logic is flawed.  Projections are all made-up numbers, that is my point.  The best place to start with projections is on the basis of past performance.  Past performance is not the only indicator, however.

My "logic" is that if your stumbling block for drafting Kmet instead of Andrews is projections, that's easily fixed by changing the projections.

I don’t even look at projections, as I find them irrelevant. However, you often state the axiom that past performance is the greatest indicator of success, except when it doesn’t fit whatever argument you’re pushing, and then presto, it doesn’t matter that much…

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It looks to me like Axe is just saying the the projections for any or all of Andrews, Goedert, Ertz, and Kmet are wrong.

He's just saying it as "just fix the projections to say..." because he has to keep up his schtick.  So the argument isn't about the value of projections and past performance.  It's about do you feel that the projections saying Andrews will outscore those guys by 100 points are accurate.  All he's saying is they aren't.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, jrokh said:

I don’t even look at projections, as I find them irrelevant. However, you often state the axiom that past performance is the greatest indicator of success, except when it doesn’t fit whatever argument you’re pushing, and then presto, it doesn’t matter that much…

The world exists in shades of gray.  You seem to be saying that I need to pick a side, either past performance is irrelevant, or past performance is the iron rule for all projections.

I'm comfortable living in a world where past performance is the BEST predictor of future performance that we have, but which is also not infallible nor sufficient in determing a player's potential.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Bier Meister said:

I disagree. I also do not trust he will last with the heavy usage.  I am ok letting someone else assume the risk

🎉 I’ll easily take the risk.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, weepaws said:

🎉 I’ll easily take the risk.  

👍... And this is why we play ff

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Bier Meister said:

👍... And this is why we play ff

Amen, it’s what makes it fun.  Good luck this season. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Agreed, but you can’t have it both ways. Last year Andrews outscored Goedert/Ertz/Kmet, by over 100 points each in half ppr. By your own admission Andrew’s past performance would indicate he would do it again this year. I don’t buy it but your logic is flawed…

it is.  but as per the Quote below, when you get into nonsensical projections and throw logic and reason out the window, you lose the chance to have an intelligent conversation about it.

you are never going to get the guy to admit hes made a mistake or that hes wrong about something.

on that note I'm exiting this conversation.  I've made my point.

48 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

The simple solution, of course, is to project Ertz, Goedert and Kmet for more points than Andrews, and then you can feel good about it.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, jrokh said:

Agreed, but you can’t have it both ways. Last year Andrews outscored Goedert/Ertz/Kmet, by over 100 points each in half ppr. By your own admission Andrew’s past performance would indicate he would do it again this year. I don’t buy it but your logic is flawed…

 

3 hours ago, jrokh said:

I don’t even look at projections, as I find them irrelevant. However, you often state the axiom that past performance is the greatest indicator of success, except when it doesn’t fit whatever argument you’re pushing, and then presto, it doesn’t matter that much…

Bingo.

Again- he Axe Elf is also ignoring the past performance in total for Henry. Other than last year Henry has "struggled" the first month of the season so last year is a bit of an aberration in his performance.

But again- he is just trying to fit his argument into whatever he wants and is ignoring that going at Andrews is maximizing points at that position while taking a bit of a hit at another. It isn't enough to offset though.

His stuff comes off as just tryin to be "smarter" than the room rather than accepting that the first two rounds are all basically stock. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And again- if I had drafted someone like Darren Waller in that spot I would totally get the argument that Axe Elf is putting forward. It would be a reach for one, but for two- the difference between Waller and Kmet is 42 points so approximately 3 points a week. Andrews is another 45 points ahead of Waller so you are talking 87 points over a 14 game regular season which is approximately 6 points a week. You are basically going into every week with a tight end advantage.

To take a less extreme example- Waller over Goedert is 37 points so less than 3 points. It's significant but not as much. But Andrews over Goedert is 82 points so you are talking- 5.9 points a week. That is significant.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

going at Andrews is maximizing points at that position while taking a bit of a hit at another.

NO!

One more time for the hard of thinking.

It is not "taking a bit of a hit at another."

It is not taking ONE hit!

It is taking a "bit of a hit" to at least four, if not five or six, other positions.

Granted, projections are nonsense, but in theory, the average 3rd round RB/WR scores a couple fewer ppg than the average 2nd round RB/WR; are we green?

And are we also green that the average 4th round RB/WR scores fewer ppg than the average 3rd round RB/WR?

And likewise the 5th and 6th rounders to the 4th and 5th rounders?

And can we now agree that by depriving yourself of a 2nd round RB/WR, you have cost yourself a couple of points per week at like four or five different positions?  I don't think Andrews is going to make up those 8-10 pts per week from all but one of your other starters, sorry.

(Perhaps I should say it's not Likely--HA!)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2nd round RB/WR becomes 3rd round RB/WR
3nd round RB/WR becomes 4th round RB/WR
4th round RB/WR becomes 5th round RB/WR
5th round RB/WR becomes 6th round RB/WR

10th round TE becomes 2nd round TE.

So the team went from 

RB/WR 2nd round 
RB/WR 3rd round 
RB/WR 4th round 
RB/WR 5th round 

TE 10th round

to

RB/WR 3rd round 
RB/WR 4th round 
RB/WR 5th round 

RB/WR 6th round 
TE 2nd round

So delta is 10th round TE + 2nd Round RB/WR against 6th round RB/WR and 2nd round TE.

So let's see, by FFT ADP, that's something like

Mike Evans and Cole Kmet (total projected points per FFT is 161.5 + 91.7 = 253.2 points)

vs

Mark Andrews and Juju Smith Shuster (158.4 + 135.7 = 294.1) 

I guess Mooney wins. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mm I don’t think Henry is that slow of a starter besides last season, in half ppr in 2020 he avg 17 per game, that’s pretty good. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

NO!

One more time for the hard of thinking.

It is not "taking a bit of a hit at another."

It is not taking ONE hit!

It is taking a "bit of a hit" to at least four, if not five or six, other positions.

Granted, projections are nonsense, but in theory, the average 3rd round RB/WR scores a couple fewer ppg than the average 2nd round RB/WR; are we green?

And are we also green that the average 4th round RB/WR scores fewer ppg than the average 3rd round RB/WR?

And likewise the 5th and 6th rounders to the 4th and 5th rounders?

And can we now agree that by depriving yourself of a 2nd round RB/WR, you have cost yourself a couple of points per week at like four or five different positions?  I don't think Andrews is going to make up those 8-10 pts per week from all but one of your other starters, sorry.

Glad you could go big font.

We played this game already and I showed the numbers as to how you were wrong and you moved the goalposts.

DJ Moore is the 12th ranked WR on ESPN. By the time I picked him- I passed over the only 3 ahead of him remaining- Keenan Allen, Deebo Samuel, and Tee Higgins. Samuel's projection is 25 points ahead of Moore (1.8 per week), Allen is 5 points ahead (.35 per week), and Higgins is 3 ahead(.21 per week).

Mike Williams was my 2nd receiver and is 18th ranked and I got him at 18. I passed over Pittman- 25 points (1.8 per week), AJ Brown- 11 points (.79 per week), and Allen Robinson II- behind Williams 22 points...

My 3rd receiver is Renfrow- from Williams at 18 to Renfrow at 31 the point difference is 16 points. 

The difference of Andrews to Kelce at 2 is 6 points. To Pitts at #3 it is 36 points....

Again- you are looking at things through your skewed vacuum and you are just flat out wrong. Not to mention that if we take your argument of past performance being indicative of so much more than projections- than Andrew projections are anywhere from 40 to 60 points light which would be a difference of 120-140 points a year which is almost 8-10 points a week. 

You have played yourself into a corner here, but certainly keep digging. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Sean Mooney said:

Glad you could go big font.

Axe Elf is often the target of font envy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, weepaws said:

Mm I don’t think Henry is that slow of a starter besides last season, in half ppr in 2020 he avg 17 per game, that’s pretty good. 

2019- 310 yards, 3 touchdowns....5 catches for 97 yards (1 catch was that weird 75 yard one he had)

2020 through the first 4 games- 376 yards, 4 touchdowns....6 catches for 32 yards.

2021- 510 yards, 4 touchdowns..... 14 catches, 125 yards

 

1 of those looks like a bit of an outlier. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

by choosing to pick a TE in round 2 instead of a WR, the correct method to tell if you win or lose is the projected loss in points if you wait a round to select from that position.

you give your best estimate as to how many WR would go between now and the next time you pick  as compared to TE that would go between now and the next time you pick.  then you figure out which strategy likely gives the most points.

the strategy can work.  no doubt about that.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

2019- 310 yards, 3 touchdowns....5 catches for 97 yards (1 catch was that weird 75 yard one he had)

2020 through the first 4 games- 376 yards, 4 touchdowns....6 catches for 32 yards.

2021- 510 yards, 4 touchdowns..... 14 catches, 125 yards

So this guy who has consistently averaged 100 yards, 1 TD and 19.67 fantasy points per game in September...

...we should AVOID him?

Mmmkay.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

by choosing to pick a TE in round 2 instead of a WR, the correct method to tell if you win or lose is the projected loss in points if you wait a round to select from that position.

you give your best estimate as to how many WR would go between now and the next time you pick  as compared to TE that would go between now and the next time you pick.  then you figure out which strategy likely gives the most points.

the strategy can work.  no doubt about that.

 

and these days, the top tes can score like a #1 wr

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This debate reminds of some concepts that don't apply so much these days, but was part of the reason why PPR became so popular whether people even realized it or not.

Back in the days of the true workhorse runningbacks, if you plotted out the positional scoring (ie, QB, RB, WR, TE, K, D) for the starters, RBs always had a decaying exponential curve.  It's why getting a top 3 pick was so crucial in snake drafts.  Getting Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander, etc, gave you such a huge advantage each week.  People didn't like that, so they tried to skew the WR points a little more by giving PPR or half-PPR to level the playing field.  Only the NFL rules shifted in such a way that the workhorse back became less and less of a work horse and the increase in passing offenses (ie, 4000 yard passers used to be fairly rare) caused a natural rise in the value of WRs.

Anyway, if you ever bothered to do that type of plot, it was very easy to see at a glance the positional value.  If a position had that exponential curve, those guys at the top of the curve immediately became super valuable and as a result everyone chased the position as a whole hoping to get on the high end of that curve.  For most positions, though, the plot of their FF pts had a linear slope, and it was very easy to see positional value.  QBs,  TEs, kickers, defenses all had fairly low slopes implying there wasn't that big of a difference between a top starter and a low end starter, but RB and WR, even though they didn't have the exponential curve still had a steeper slope implying you needed to value those positions more.  Like most things, people just kind of naturally picked up on that and eventually the market sort of corrects through winning and losing.  I mean if you ever see a FF novice, they love QBs, right?  It's through trial and error or reading a few articles, they figure out what the above analysis shows.

What the projections are showing this year is that the TE position is having that exponential drop off meaning those top guys are extremely valuable.  Now the question really isn't "is it right to draft a TE that early?"  There are really two relevant questions:

  1. If there is such an exponential drop off, does it become more correct to draft a TE early?
  2. Are the projections showing this exponential drop off even correct?
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Mm I don’t think Henry is that slow of a starter besides last season, in half ppr in 2020 he avg 17 per game, that’s pretty good. 

 

19 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

2019- 310 yards, 3 touchdowns....5 catches for 97 yards (1 catch was that weird 75 yard one he had)

2020 through the first 4 games- 376 yards, 4 touchdowns....6 catches for 32 yards.

2021- 510 yards, 4 touchdowns..... 14 catches, 125 yards

 

1 of those looks like a bit of an outlier. 

 

One can look at how they like, first half 2020 17 point per game half ppr pretty good, even better last season 22 per game first half of season. I’ll take both.  

Thanks. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Bier Meister said:

and these days, the top tes can score like a #1 wr

Last five years half ppr, nine times has a te scored more then 200 ff points.  Mostly Kelce.  I think that’s a reach. I rather pick a te in the double digit rounds. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Last five years half ppr, nine times has a te scored more then 200 ff points.  Mostly Kelce.  I think that’s a reach. I rather pick a te in the double digit rounds. 

4/5 leagues I am in use 1.5 ppr for te. The other is flat 1pp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Bier Meister said:

4/5 leagues I am in use 1.5 ppr for te. The other is flat 1pp

2 of those are FFPC, redraft.  Having a top 4 te is worthwhile

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Bier Meister said:

2 of those are FFPC, redraft.  Having a top 4 te is worthwhile

Why? Now I’m asking this not to challenge but to learn. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

So this guy who has consistently averaged 100 yards, 1 TD and 19.67 fantasy points per game in September...

...we should AVOID him?

Mmmkay.

310/4 is 77.5

376/4 is 94

 

Maybe you don't know what the word "consistent" means?

And I never said to avoid Henry...just said it's foolish to pretend like he is a no doubt #1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Bier Meister said:

and these days, the top tes can score like a #1 wr

thats the thing.   the top 2 TE's will likely get over 1000 yards receiving.  I think they are currently projected at 1100.   so they will score like a low end WR1 but will fill the TE slot.   its an advantage if they actually achieve what they are supposed to.

and in the second round, thats exactly what you likely have left.

it looks bad when you look at your WR but I've won drafts doing this.    a couple years back I took Kelce in the first round of my keeper league(keep 3).  nobody kept TE and his projected points were only slightly less than the best WR on the board.    I took him and someone told me it was a panic move.   I replied.... no panic.  he scores almost as much as the best WR on the board but he takes the slot of the TE.  I rode that all the way to the finals and won the draft that year.    it wasnt even close.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

310/4 is 77.5

376/4 is 94

My league also counts receiving yardage.

(310+97)/4=101.75

(376+32)/4=102

How much consistency do you want?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, nobody said:

This debate reminds of some concepts that don't apply so much these days, but was part of the reason why PPR became so popular whether people even realized it or not.

Back in the days of the true workhorse runningbacks, if you plotted out the positional scoring (ie, QB, RB, WR, TE, K, D) for the starters, RBs always had a decaying exponential curve.  It's why getting a top 3 pick was so crucial in snake drafts.  Getting Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander, etc, gave you such a huge advantage each week.  People didn't like that, so they tried to skew the WR points a little more by giving PPR or half-PPR to level the playing field.  Only the NFL rules shifted in such a way that the workhorse back became less and less of a work horse and the increase in passing offenses (ie, 4000 yard passers used to be fairly rare) caused a natural rise in the value of WRs.

Anyway, if you ever bothered to do that type of plot, it was very easy to see at a glance the positional value.  If a position had that exponential curve, those guys at the top of the curve immediately became super valuable and as a result everyone chased the position as a whole hoping to get on the high end of that curve.  For most positions, though, the plot of their FF pts had a linear slope, and it was very easy to see positional value.  QBs,  TEs, kickers, defenses all had fairly low slopes implying there wasn't that big of a difference between a top starter and a low end starter, but RB and WR, even though they didn't have the exponential curve still had a steeper slope implying you needed to value those positions more.  Like most things, people just kind of naturally picked up on that and eventually the market sort of corrects through winning and losing.  I mean if you ever see a FF novice, they love QBs, right?  It's through trial and error or reading a few articles, they figure out what the above analysis shows.

What the projections are showing this year is that the TE position is having that exponential drop off meaning those top guys are extremely valuable.  Now the question really isn't "is it right to draft a TE that early?"  There are really two relevant questions:

  1. If there is such an exponential drop off, does it become more correct to draft a TE early?
  2. Are the projections showing this exponential drop off even correct?

Great post.  I've been preaching this all along though my language is not as eloquent as yours is.

but its true.

the top TE's are projected to get in the range of 150 fantasy points.

the low end TE starters are projected to get close to 100.   

thats a significant dropoff.    this is why the trend has grown to take TE's earlier.   they simply are more valueable and there is a difference between the haves and the have nots.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Why? Now I’m asking this not to challenge but to learn. 

ray addressed it.

 

last year andrews scored 345 and kelce missed a game and had an off year to score 300... then the dip... schultz was 3rd with 230.

kupp had a record breaking season with 415, then the dip and return to the  "norm": adams 334, deebo (which will likely go down) 312, jj 309, chase at 305, hill at 300.

3 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

thats the thing.   the top 2 TE's will likely get over 1000 yards receiving.  I think they are currently projected at 1100.   so they will score like a low end WR1 but will fill the TE slot.   its an advantage if they actually achieve what they are supposed to.

and in the second round, thats exactly what you likely have left.

it looks bad when you look at your WR but I've won drafts doing this.    a couple years back I took Kelce in the first round of my keeper league(keep 3).  nobody kept TE and his projected points were only slightly less than the best WR on the board.    I took him and someone told me it was a panic move.   I replied.... no panic.  he scores almost as much as the best WR on the board but he takes the slot of the TE.  I rode that all the way to the finals and won the draft that year.    it wasnt even close.

to reiterate, last year the top 2 te scored as if they we #1 wrs then a large drop in tier.  you can recover wr value in the next round.  

 

now, lets say you draft jj in round 1

kelce or andrews in round 2

something like a conner in 3.... this combo give a high per game average than many other combinations

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, nobody said:

This debate reminds of some concepts that don't apply so much these days, but was part of the reason why PPR became so popular whether people even realized it or not.

Back in the days of the true workhorse runningbacks, if you plotted out the positional scoring (ie, QB, RB, WR, TE, K, D) for the starters, RBs always had a decaying exponential curve.  It's why getting a top 3 pick was so crucial in snake drafts.  Getting Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander, etc, gave you such a huge advantage each week.  People didn't like that, so they tried to skew the WR points a little more by giving PPR or half-PPR to level the playing field.  Only the NFL rules shifted in such a way that the workhorse back became less and less of a work horse and the increase in passing offenses (ie, 4000 yard passers used to be fairly rare) caused a natural rise in the value of WRs.

Anyway, if you ever bothered to do that type of plot, it was very easy to see at a glance the positional value.  If a position had that exponential curve, those guys at the top of the curve immediately became super valuable and as a result everyone chased the position as a whole hoping to get on the high end of that curve.  For most positions, though, the plot of their FF pts had a linear slope, and it was very easy to see positional value.  QBs,  TEs, kickers, defenses all had fairly low slopes implying there wasn't that big of a difference between a top starter and a low end starter, but RB and WR, even though they didn't have the exponential curve still had a steeper slope implying you needed to value those positions more.  Like most things, people just kind of naturally picked up on that and eventually the market sort of corrects through winning and losing.  I mean if you ever see a FF novice, they love QBs, right?  It's through trial and error or reading a few articles, they figure out what the above analysis shows.

What the projections are showing this year is that the TE position is having that exponential drop off meaning those top guys are extremely valuable.  Now the question really isn't "is it right to draft a TE that early?"  There are really two relevant questions:

  1. If there is such an exponential drop off, does it become more correct to draft a TE early?
  2. Are the projections showing this exponential drop off even correct?

absolutely

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You guys (that are not Axe Elf) are crushing it and understand so I appreciate that.

Also, simply- some of this is drafting strategy. At the spot I was at draft wise you need to try and create something that is to a positional advantage for you. I took a running back first and then had to sit for 22 picks until I picked again and watched 8 of the top 10 receivers fly off the board. At that point it now becomes after I go running back do I go with a WR or a TE. Those wide receivers are going to be spread across teams and the TE is my best chance to create an advantage for myself. Had I taken Keenan Allen- I'm only gaining 5 points at receiver, but I'm going to lose many at tight end. By the time it got back to me with Moore the top 5 tight ends were gone and I would've been taken a 56 point hit over the season. 

But I chose to jump the tight end rather than chase the wide receiver position.

Also, Axe Elf is looking at the team in a vacuum because he wasn't in the room. He wasn't looking at the draft board and he wasn't sensing how things were flowing. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/27/2022 at 1:18 PM, Sean Mooney said:

Couple things with this league...buy in is 25 dollars for 12 people.

Only pays 1st and 2nd but then also pays 45 dollars for highest total points on season. 

I will tip the pizza guy more at my draft on Sunday. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I look at a guy like Pitts as a WR, who happens to be TE only eligible...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Sean Mooney said:

You guys (that are not Axe Elf) are crushing it and understand so I appreciate that.

Also, simply- some of this is drafting strategy. At the spot I was at draft wise you need to try and create something that is to a positional advantage for you. I took a running back first and then had to sit for 22 picks until I picked again and watched the top 8 of the top 10 receivers fly off the board. At that point it now becomes after I go running back do I go with a WR or a TE. Those wide receivers are going to be spread across teams and the TE is my best chance to create an advantage for myself. Had I taken Keenan Allen- I'm only gaining 5 points at receiver, but I'm going to lose many at tight end. By the time it got back to me with Moore the top 5 tight ends were gone and I would've been taken a 56 point hit over the season. 

But I chose to jump the tight end rather than chase the wide receiver position.

Also, Axe Elf is looking at the team in a vacuum because he wasn't in the room. He wasn't looking at the draft board and he wasn't sensing how things were flowing. 

agreed. 

in an auction I always try to have at least one position where I have an advantage on everyone.   then if possible I work on another.

if I get quality RB's early I'll make that the stength, then TE and QB because people draft them late or refuse to pay auction dollars for them, I can often do that too.   there is value to be had at WR even late if you know where to spend your money.   you really only need one high end WR.   the rest are all replaceable if you are patient (especially with an auction)

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Bier Meister said:

ray addressed it.

 

last year andrews scored 345 and kelce missed a game and had an off year to score 300... then the dip... schultz was 3rd with 230.

kupp had a record breaking season with 415, then the dip and return to the  "norm": adams 334, deebo (which will likely go down) 312, jj 309, chase at 305, hill at 300.

to reiterate, last year the top 2 te scored as if they we #1 wrs then a large drop in tier.  you can recover wr value in the next round.  

 

now, lets say you draft jj in round 1

kelce or andrews in round 2

something like a conner in 3.... this combo give a high per game average than many other combinations

ffpc= ppr; 1.5 ppr for te

I have the 3 spot in ffpc in about a week.  running through scenarios to draft either rb (ekeler or cmc), vs jeffereson in the first.

kelce will be gone in the 2nd (typically a round 1 pick). hoping for andrews.

3rd round= many more wr options than rb (players i would want as my rb1)... this is leading me to lean rb in the 1st

 

I also have a team with the 9 spot in a different draft.  If kelce falls, it would be a gift. if not need to see how the draft goes and who is available at rb/wr (possibly harris, mixon, cook, diggs, chase adams.

2nd= might jump adp to grab andrews.

3rd= if there.. chubb/etienne, hill/keenan/ conner

4th= similar as 3rd

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Decided to do a Yahoo Public Prize league again this year as I've had success winning 1st two years ago, and 2nd last year (lost by less than 2 points). PPR league with standard rosters:

Had the 5th pick in the draft which at least wasn't #1. Start a QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, W/R/T Flex, K, D, 6 person bench

QB- Justin Herbert (5th), Justin Fields (12th)

RB- Ekeler (1st), Barkley (2nd), Fournette (3rd), Stevenson (10th)

WR- McLaurin (4th), Brandin Cooks (6th), Darnell Mooney (7th), Christian Kirk (9th), Valdez-Scantling (13th)

TE- Goedert (8th), Ertz (11th)

K- Matt Prater (15th)

DST- Green Bay (14th)

 

Draft was pretty much exactly what the Yahoo draft rankings were (some of that was because 4 people were auto drafting on a Thursday night at 10pm.- Dummies) I saw the opportunity to get 2 big running backs to start. At the third round I was two picks away with Fournette, Kelce, Andrews, and Higgins immediately there. The two guys in front of me went Kelce, and then Andrews. I already had 2 running backs so I looked ahead at where the stock picks would be since the draft was holding firm. I liked a lot of the receiver options that were hanging there so I decided to just completely lock down the running back position which would take me away from some of the more committee guys and began scouring for target monster receivers to go after. The one spot where I really jumped a few picks ahead of someone's ADP was to take Herbert in the 5th. I could've hung back for like Hurts, Burrow, or maybe Kyler in the 7th but I'm already in on Kyler in one league and I try to spread my starting QB love and get a bunch of shares at the position. Also, with so many auto drafters I was concerned I wouldn't get the guy I wanted. The QB run happened a round later so I was probably at least half right. 

Before anyone asks too- I always take a back up tight end and quarterback. I want a back up at all positions and think it is good to be prepared in case of injury. If Goedert goes down in week 4, Ertz is most likely better than anyone I will find on the waiver wire. 

Yahoo Report Card gave me an "A-"...but they gave the crazy dude a "B" as well. So take that FWIW. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think you hurts yourself again at wr.  Which were available for you in round 2. While ekeler  is not a pillar of health, having him let’s you take a chance on barkley. I like fournette.

your wr core is not bad, I just likely value others higher

i think goedert will have a nice season

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Bier Meister said:

I think you hurts yourself again at wr.  Which were available for you in round 2. While ekeler  is not a pillar of health, having him let’s you take a chance on barkley. I like fournette.

your wr core is not bad, I just likely value others higher

i think goedert will have a nice season

I can see that on the receiver thing. I just wanted target machines as I could find them. McLaurin is going to have arguably the best QB he's ever had throwing to him. Cooks is so underrated and gets a ton of play. Mooney will get a ton of looks. Kirk I still hold will get a ton of looks on a bad team. At the 2nd round the receivers who went right after Barkley were Lamb, Evans, Hill, Samuel. I was hoping AJ Brown might fall to me after taking Fournette in the 3rd but he went before me in the 4th. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×