Sean Mooney's 2022 Season Drafts- Week 14 Update

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

6 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

That's what I would do if I were in a league of that kind.  I don't pay attention to who is who or on what teams or whatever, I just look at which free agents are projected for the highest points that week, maybe adjust my preference a little for teams/matchups that I prefer or disdain, and away we go.

Will I score MORE points than you?  I honestly don't know.  I do believe I can stay close enough to you to justify the conservation of draft capital represented by taking 2 IDPs last.

Are you going to have 2 IDPs that you ride or die every week, or like a roster of 4 from which you start 2 each week?

I can start 4. I usually carry 4 or 5 so I can rotate around bye weeks and give myself some positional matchups if needed. 

[AxeElf 787]

19 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

I can start 4. I usually carry 4 or 5 so I can rotate around bye weeks and give myself some positional matchups if needed. 

No, I meant for the purposes of this bet... er... demonstration--based on starting 2 IDPs per week.  Are you just going to declare 2 that will be your 2 week in and week out, or are you going to select like 4 guys from which you will start 2 each week?

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

1 minute ago, AxeElf said:

No, I meant for the purposes of this bet... er... demonstration--based on starting 2 IDPs per week.  Are you just going to declare 2 that will be your 2 week in and week out, or are you going to select like 4 guys from which you will start 2 each week?

I can select 2 based off of matchups- much like I would imagine you would be doing. 

[nobody 2,037]

3 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Sort of like saying that you really have to follow football to know your Kickers in an 8-kicker league.

When IDP becomes more prevalent, you'll be right.  Right now though there are obvious edges to take advantage of like people sleeping on a three down linebacker until the 25th round of a draft where people need to start 7 idps.  There's maybe 35 three down LBs and these guys let Mooney get one in the last round.  Hell, he drafted a 2nd string safety over him.  And I'm not talking a backup safety on his fantasy team.  I mean a back up safety on the Vikings depth chart. 

That's like have a kicker league and people drafting punters.  

[AxeElf 787]

19 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

I can select 2 based off of matchups- much like I would imagine you would be doing. 

Well then we're both just streaming our IDPs.  I thought you were trying to prove that it was worth spending a couple of mid-round draft picks to get 2 solid IDPs that you would start every week, over my suggested strategy of drafting them in the final rounds and streaming.

If that's your claim, then you need to pick maybe 3 that you would have spent this draft capital on from your list of 18 protected IDPs, and then choose 2 of them each week to start.

If that's not your claim, then we agree--it's best to draft IDPs in the final rounds and stream.

[AxeElf 787]

20 minutes ago, nobody said:

people sleeping on a three down linebacker until the 25th round of a draft where people need to start 7 idps.

This would be further evidence of the efficacy of waiting until the final rounds to draft IDPs.

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

9 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Well then we're both just streaming our IDPs.  I thought you were trying to prove that it was worth spending a couple of mid-round draft picks to get 2 solid IDPs that you would start every week, over my suggested strategy of drafting them in the final rounds and streaming.

If that's your claim, then you need to pick maybe 3 that you would have spent this draft capital on from your list of 18 protected IDPs, and then choose 2 of them each week to start.

If that's not your claim, then we agree--it's best to draft IDPs in the final rounds and stream.

You said there is no reason to pick anyone before the last round or two. I stated that isn't true. 

We then discussed this and I said technically you should not pick anyone from the top 20-ish because those players would've been all gone before you made your pick. And again- technically in this league you would be down at like #40 or so considering 9 teams would've drafted ~5 IDPs before you would've touched one. 

[AxeElf 787]

21 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

You said there is no reason to pick anyone before the last round or two. I stated that isn't true. 

We then discussed this and I said technically you should not pick anyone from the top 20-ish because those players would've been all gone before you made your pick. And again- technically in this league you would be down at like #40 or so considering 9 teams would've drafted ~5 IDPs before you would've touched one. 

I give up.  You seem to be struggling with keeping the two leagues separate in your mind--the 2 IDP league upon which the bet was based, and the 7 IDP league you just drafted, not to mention thinking you're supposed to be streaming your picks, when you were trying to defend the notion of drafting IDPs earlier in the draft.

Go 8 Kicker Leagues!

[nobody 2,037]

The construct of the demonstration would be tough because the person drafting early has the complication of injury that the streamer doesn't have to worry about.

So let's say Sean gets something like Fred Warner and Micah Parsons. 

Then you should eliminate Roquan, TJ Watt, Wagner, Darius Leonard, Devin White, CJ Mosley, Devondre Campbell, Jordyn Brooks, Olukun, Eric Kendricks, Joe Schobert, Logan Wilson, Cole Holcomb, Lavonte David, Rashaan Evans, Denzel Perryman, and maybe Zach Cunningham.

Then Axe gets to stream from the field, and if one of Sean's guys gets hurt, Sean should have to stream as well.  I'm sure Sean will want to shoot himself in the foot by putting safeties and d-linemen in the eliminated pool.  Feel free, of course.

[nobody 2,037]

I think if I was in Sean's spot I'd want Wagner and Warner.  

 

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

9 hours ago, nobody said:

The construct of the demonstration would be tough because the person drafting early has the complication of injury that the streamer doesn't have to worry about.

So let's say Sean gets something like Fred Warner and Micah Parsons. 

Then you should eliminate Roquan, TJ Watt, Wagner, Darius Leonard, Devin White, CJ Mosley, Devondre Campbell, Jordyn Brooks, Olukun, Eric Kendricks, Joe Schobert, Logan Wilson, Cole Holcomb, Lavonte David, Rashaan Evans, Denzel Perryman, and maybe Zach Cunningham.

Then Axe gets to stream from the field, and if one of your guys gets hurt, you have to stream as well.  I'm sure you want to shoot yourself in the foot by putting safeties and d-linemen in the eliminated pool.  Feel free, of course.

I was trying to be fair to him considering IDPs are all encompassing and of course there are always chances someone would draft a safety over a linebacker (for whatever reason).

But I'll play linebackers to make it easier considering that is what most would do. So I'll take my two top ranked LBs (Fred Warner, Kyzir White)

Then eliminate the top 18 linebackers- Warner is in the top 18, as is Kyzir White so there are 16 names listed (using ESPN IDP rankings):

Foye Oluokun

Jordyn Brooks

Roquan Smith

Bobby Wagner

De'Vondre Campbell

Cole Holcomb

Micah Parsons

Shaq Leonard

CJ Mosley

Logan Wilson

Erik Kendricks

Denzel Perryman

Shaq Thompson (Who I drafted later)

Tremaine Edwards

Devin White

Christian Kirksey

 

 

 

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

I'm holding to the 2 LB IDP rule....And taking my 2 guys that I drafted highest to be fair.

From there- should one of them go down I get to pick a new guy to stream for those weeks until that person returns. So if Kyzir White gets hurt and misses weeks 3-9 returning in week 10- I stream from weeks 3-9 and then go back to White when he is activated. 

[nobody 2,037]

You should open it up to all positions to allow axe more chances to make mistakes.

But since you're leaving him Joe Schobert and Rashaan Evans, I think the demo is done.

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

28 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

I give up.  You seem to be struggling with keeping the two leagues separate in your mind--the 2 IDP league upon which the bet was based, and the 7 IDP league you just drafted, not to mention thinking you're supposed to be streaming your picks, when you were trying to defend the notion of drafting IDPs earlier in the draft.

Go 8 Kicker Leagues!

I did no such thing. Just saying what the game would be in the league I play in. Hell I laid out LB...let's add the secondary as their own thing:

I'll take Jamal Adams and Marlon Humphrey as they are my 2 highest guys- both are ranked top 18 as well. :

That then eliminates:

Derwin James

Jonathan Abram

Jalen Thompson

Antoine Winfield

Jeremy Chinn

Kenny Moore

Minkah Fitzpatrick

Harrison Smith

Vonn Bell

L'Jarius Snead

Jayron Kearse

Budda Baker

Kamren Curl

Logan Ryan

Tracy Walker

Jordan Poyer

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

1 minute ago, nobody said:

You should open it up to all positions to allow axe more chances to make mistakes.

But since you're leaving him Joe Schobert and Rashaan Evans, I think the demo is done.

I don't want him to have any excuses if he loses. 

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

9 minutes ago, nobody said:

You should open it up to all positions to allow axe more chances to make mistakes.

But since you're leaving him Joe Schobert and Rashaan Evans, I think the demo is done.

I'm even giving him the courtesy of taking the two guys I picked highest and not the 2 guys highest ranked on ESPN at the LB position. 

[nobody 2,037]

I don't know why I keep saying Schobert.  I was thinking of Tremaine Edmunds.  I'm not sure why I had Schobert on my brain.  That's weird.

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

11 minutes ago, nobody said:

I don't know why I keep saying Schobert.  I was thinking of Tremaine Edmunds.  I'm not sure why I had Schobert on my brain.  That's weird.

When you say "But since you're leaving him Tremaine Edmunds and Rashaan Evans, I think the demo is done." Is that to say you think I've lost or won?

[nobody 2,037]

4 hours ago, Sean Mooney said:

When you say "But since you're leaving him Tremaine Edmunds and Rashaan Evans, I think the demo is done." Is that to say you think I've lost or won?

I figured you'd lose.  Some top 10 linebacker is going to fall out of the sky.  

Blake Martinez got cut by the way.  You might want to remove him from your list.

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

Draft #6 brings this year to a close. Now I'm ready to just watch some football. First time this league is running and scoring is pretty standard and we run: QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, 2 FLEX, K, DEF, and there are 7 bench spots. Had the 3rd pick.

QB: Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields

RB: Austin Ekeler, Javonte Williams, Chase Edmonds, Devin Singletary, Brian Robinson (plan to stash him on IR)

WR: Diontae Johnson, Darnell Mooney, Tyler Lockett, Brandon Aiyuk, Robert Woods, Marquez Valdes-Scantling

TE: Mark Andrews, Evan Engram

K: Matt Gay

DEF: Ravens

 

I'll take it.

 

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

And the final array of what I have positional wise across six league:

QB: Matthew Stafford (1), Trey Lance (1), Justin Herbert (1), Jalen Hurts (1), Kyler Murray (1), Lamar Jackson (2), Justin Fields (4)

RB: Jonathan Taylor (2), James Conner (1), Zeke Elliott (1), Chase Edmonds (2), Jamal Williams (1), Leonard Fournette (2), Dameon Pierce (1), Kenneth Gainwell (1), Khalil Herbert (1), Austin Ekeler (2), Saquon Barkley (3), Rhamondre Stevenson (1), Damien Harris (1), Cordarrelle Patterson (2), Devin Singletary (2), Javonte Williams (1), Brian Robinson (1), CMC (1)

WR: Marquise Brown (1), Christian Kirk (2), Allen Robinson (1), Jakobi Meyers (1), Parris Campbell (1), Wan'Dale Robinson (1), DJ Moore (2), Mike Williams (3), Hunter Renfrow (1), Tyler Lockett (2), Jarvis Landry (2), Terry McLaurin (1), Brandon Cooks (1), Darnell Mooney (4), MVS (2), Mike Evans (1), Diontae Johnson (2), Nico Collins (1), Zay Jones (1), AJ Brown (1), Amon Ra St-Brown (1), Brandon Aiyuk (1), Robert Woods (1)

TE: Mark Andrews (3), Dallas Goedert (2), Zach Ertz (2), Cole Kmet (1), Noah Fant (1), Pat Friermuth (1), Evan Engram (1)

 

Takeaways:

I continue to spread my shots around at RB and WR looking for value and scattershot points.

Ended up getting more top tier QBs than I anticipated going into drafts this year.

Stayed to the top with my tight ends for the most part with some good upside in spots.

I am apparently all about Barkley bouncing back.

I also am all in on the Bears hype train and didn't even realize it. 

[Bier Meister 1,513]

8 hours ago, Sean Mooney said:

Draft #6 brings this year to a close. Now I'm ready to just watch some football. First time this league is running and scoring is pretty standard and we run: QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, 2 FLEX, K, DEF, and there are 7 bench spots. Had the 3rd pick.

QB: Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields

RB: Austin Ekeler, Javonte Williams, Chase Edmonds, Devin Singletary, Brian Robinson (plan to stash him on IR)

WR: Diontae Johnson, Darnell Mooney, Tyler Lockett, Brandon Aiyuk, Robert Woods, Marquez Valdes-Scantling

TE: Mark Andrews, Evan Engram

K: Matt Gay

DEF: Ravens

 

I'll take it.

 

so far, this has been my favorite of your teams

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

30 minutes ago, Bier Meister said:

so far, this has been my favorite of your teams

I think this is the team I (hopefully) don't have to do much with this year.

The other ones will need a little more nurturing I believe. 

[jrokh 568]

3 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

I think this is the team I (hopefully) don't have to do much with this year.

The other ones will need a little more nurturing I believe. 

Your WRs are Ungood. You should do something to make them less bad. The rest of your team is Aces.

[Bier Meister 1,513]

13 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Your WRs are Ungood. You should do something to make them less bad. The rest of your team is Aces.

Aiyuk, Johnson, Lockett, and Mooney is a fine combo.

[jrokh 568]

3 minutes ago, Bier Meister said:

Aiyuk, Johnson, Lockett, and Mooney is a fine combo.

Maybe in a 16 team league. In a 12 or less they are meh at best…

[Bier Meister 1,513]

What are your projections for them?

I think the first three will be pretty solid and all four give him a decent floor.  I will admit that there is likely a cap to his ceiling 

[jrokh 568]

I don’t do projections. I would reckon he has the worst WRs in that league. He is so strong at the other positions that meh WRs could be enough 

[Bier Meister 1,513]

Just now, jrokh said:

I don’t do projections. I would reckon he has the worst WRs in that league. He is so strong at the other positions that meh WRs could be enough 

Doubtful 

[Bier Meister 1,513]

Aiyuk in the doghouse for 8-9 games ended with 56/850/5. Check his game logs for final 8-9 games

johnson: 106/1160/8

lockett: no Russ, but slot on a team that will be passing a bit… 73/1175/8

mooney: should be passing a bit as well… 81/1055/4

 

Without tds they should be around 12/gm

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

Here is the @Axe Elf list that he requested for LB this week. These are the top 10 projected LB point getters outside of the top 18 already accounted for.

Isaiah Simmons

Jeremiah Owusu-Kramoah

Zach Cunningham

Nick Bolton

Bobby Okereke

Jerome Baker

Patrick Queen

David Long Jr.

Jordan Hicks

Matt Milano

[jrokh 568]

16 hours ago, Bier Meister said:

Aiyuk in the doghouse for 8-9 games ended with 56/850/5. Check his game logs for final 8-9 games

johnson: 106/1160/8

lockett: no Russ, but slot on a team that will be passing a bit… 73/1175/8

mooney: should be passing a bit as well… 81/1055/4

 

Without tds they should be around 12/gm

Again, projections are meaningless. One can project whatever they wish. Rankings, while imperfect have far more utility. Looking at Fantasy Pros half-PPR WR rankings. D. Johnson is 18, Mooney is 25, Aiyuk is 35, and Lockett is 41. That is meh at best. The majority of 12 team leagues have better WR Groups than that. HTH

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

So the other top 4 receiving groupings- with their FP rankings:

Jefferson (1)/Lamb (6)/Davis (24) /Robinson (26)- better. My RB's are better

Adams (4)/ Moore (15)/ Cooper (33)/ Devonta Smith (35)- I guess better. My RB's are better

Hill (11)/ Williams (16)/ Sutton (14)/ McKenzie (60)- better. My RB's are better

Chase (3)/ Allen (12)/ Smith-Schuster (30)/ Olave (44)- I think this is a bit of a push because I think the number on Olave is high here. But numbers wise I'll say better. My RBs are better

Evans (8)/Cooks (19)/Brown (17)/Claypool (46)- Better numbers wise. RBs are a push.

Samuel (7) /Higgins (13)/Waddle (21)/London (41)- Better. My RBs are better

Kupp/Diggs/Pittman/McLaurin- Better- significantly so...My RBs are significantly better to a similar degree. 

Brown (10) /Metcalf (22) /Thielen (32) /Boyd (47)...A push. RBs are also a push

Jeudy (28)/St. Brown (29) /Renfrow (37) /Meyers (48)- Mine are better. Their running backs are better

 

As always happens I think these drafts become a bit of- am I going to trade off and take a hit at RB or WR. I almost always opt for the bit of a hit at WR considering I think the scoring potential is more vast there among players. I also have the tight end advantage considering I have the #1 guy at the position. It is a strategy and it is the one that works for me.

 

[Bier Meister 1,513]

1 hour ago, jrokh said:

Again, projections are meaningless. One can project whatever they wish. Rankings, while imperfect have far more utility. Looking at Fantasy Pros half-PPR WR rankings. D. Johnson is 18, Mooney is 25, Aiyuk is 35, and Lockett is 41. That is meh at best. The majority of 12 team leagues have better WR Groups than that. HTH

Projections are typically based on past performance and speculation. They are a guideline (not hard fast across the board), but certain not arbitrary. He did not state level of ppr. I often disagree with rankings... 

 

Based on this post above, his league mates went heavier on wr, which i cannot blame due to more reliability and pass friendly rule. the wrs have become the bell cows

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

2 minutes ago, Bier Meister said:

Projections are typically based on past performance and speculation. They are a guideline (not hard fast across the board), but certain not arbitrary. He did not state level of ppr. I often disagree with rankings... 

 

Based on this post above, his league mates went heavier on wr, which i cannot blame due to more reliability and pass friendly rule. the wrs have become the bell cows

Like I said- to me it is just a different strategy. I feel that you can still be okay at receiver waiting an extra round or two and instead getting better at running back than your opponents. Plus with the TE advantage it helps close gaps pretty heavily. 

Case in point- the guy who has Kupp/Diggs/Pittman/McLaurin has Aaron Jones, Eli Mitchell, Kenneth Walker at RB and Mike Gesicki at TE. I have my 4 receivers with Austin Ekeler, Javonte Williams, Chase Edmonds at RB and Mark Andrews at TE. When you look at point projections- (I use ESPN because while imperfect there was a study done that showed they are pretty close on everything they do number wise. ) It leaves us with a projected point differential of 9 in my favor. 

Kupp and Andrews wash advantage wise pretty much and the point projections on my running backs are higher than the point projection advantage for his receivers. 

This is what I always say about trying to find statistical advantages where you can. 

[AxeElf 787]

20 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

This is what I always say about trying to find statistical advantages where you can.

To paraphrase Mike Tyson, "Everyone has a plan until they get hit with 2 TDs from Gesicki."

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

12 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

To paraphrase Mike Tyson, "Everyone has a plan until they get hit with 2 TDs from Gesicki."

Of course you would love to highlight the thing that you can't really project and try to make that your rationale.

Tell us again about how many points people score in pre-season matter. 

[AxeElf 787]

33 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Tell us again about how many points people score in pre-season matter. 

You seem to be perseverating on this ridiculous notion for some reason.

Is it just a part of your general condition, or is there some reason you would think points scored in preseason matters?

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

8 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

You seem to be perseverating on this ridiculous notion for some reason.

Is it just a part of your general condition, or is there some reason you would think points scored in preseason matters?

You are the one who said it as if it was a rationale for a bad pick. 

[AxeElf 787]

2 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

You are the one who said it as if it was a rationale for a bad pick. 

You must have Axe Elf confused with someone else.