Axe Elf - Skibum bet #2 - Austin Hooper verse Cole Kmet

[MTSkiBum 1,593]

What studs we have this year for the 50 dollar bet.

 

Rules:

Basic scoring, ppr, 1 point per 10 yards(rushing or receiving), 6 points td, 4 points for throwing a td, 1 point per 25 yards passing, fractional scoring, typical fantasy season ie first 17 weeks of the 18 week season, no idp tackle points.

Bet is invalidated by either player missing more than 2 games due to injury.

[MTSkiBum 1,593]

I am all in on Austin Hooper this year, he had a great season with Matt Ryan and then got stuck in a comittee on the browns.

 

The titans are also switching the strategy of how they play their TE's. The last few years they have had an early down TE and 3rd down TE, however this year Hooper has both roles. In addition his major target competition is a 30 year old coming off an ACL tear.  I think that Hooper is going to lead the Titans in yards this year.

I traded for him in all 3 of my dynasty's, I have him in both of my redrafts and in about ~75% of my best balls.

[polecatt 399]

The bet is about which waiver wire TE scores more?

That's a bit anti climatic

[MTSkiBum 1,593]

25 minutes ago, polecatt said:

The bet is about which waiver wire TE scores more?

That's a bit anti climatic

I let him choose his tight end from his favorite list, he could have chose goedert, ertz, gesicki, or kmet.

I was disappointed that he went with kmet to be honest.

[MTSkiBum 1,593]

@AxeElf

Do you want to change?

 

You should make this more exciting, lets get rid of the injury rule and you should choose ertz or goedert.  Austin hooper is going to win anyways and this way you do not get destroyed.

 

 

https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-10-biggest-reactions-nfl-preseason-week-3-2022

Don’t trust Cole Kmet as your starting fantasy tight end

Kmet played in less than 70% of Chicago's offensive snaps over the first four drives. He never played under 70% of snaps in a game last season.

• Ryan Griffin made his preseason debut with the Bears. He joined Kmet in two-tight end sets, played most of the snaps in 21 personnel and also took some snaps in 11 personnel from Kmet.
• James O’Shaugnessy also took snaps from Kmet in earlier preseason games but only played with the second-stringers against the Browns. 
• Kmet has been a high-volume, low-efficiency tight end the past two seasons. His volume of snaps will be lower this season. He will need both a higher target share and much higher efficiency to be a fantasy starter this season.

[Ray_T 587]

well, I think of the lower tier TE Kmet could possibly be very good this year.  I'm not sure I'd bet on Hooper to beat him but its not impossible. 

Thing about Hooper is he is in a new offense with a new QB and new Coach.   he could light it up, or he could stink the joint out.

this is one of those where the player has a low floor and a high ceiling.  I do think he does better than what he did in cleveland and Tennessee utilizes their TE more than Cleveland does so a return to the 500-700 yard range with my best guess being at around 650 yards would seem reasonable.

Kmet is a reasonably high draft pick (2nd round) who got 600 yards in his second year in the league.   predicting a moderate increase due to experience, I project him in the range of 650 to 700 yards.   which is slightly higher than what i project for Hooper.

this is all loosey goosey predictions but I think Kmet wins this one by a hair.

[Ray_T 587]

it could end up being TD that decides this

 

[MTSkiBum 1,593]

2 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

well, I think of the lower tier TE Kmet could possibly be very good this year.  I'm not sure I'd bet on Hooper to beat him but its not impossible. 

Thing about Hooper is he is in a new offense with a new QB and new Coach.   he could light it up, or he could stink the joint out.

this is one of those where the player has a low floor and a high ceiling.  I do think he does better than what he did in cleveland and Tennessee utilizes their TE more than Cleveland does so a return to the 500-700 yard range with my best guess being at around 650 yards would seem reasonable.

Kmet is a reasonably high draft pick (2nd round) who got 600 yards in his second year in the league.   predicting a moderate increase due to experience, I project him in the range of 650 to 700 yards.   which is slightly higher than what i project for Hooper.

this is all loosey goosey predictions but I think Kmet wins this one by a hair.

 

I have hooper penciled in at 90 catches for 950 yards and 8 td's. That is why he should choose Goedert or Ertz.

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

51 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

Bet is invalidated by either player missing more than 2 games due to injury.

More than 2 more than the other?.... invalid if one plays 15 games and the other 11

or

More than 2 overall?... invalid if both only play 14 games (because they both missed 3).

[MTSkiBum 1,593]

1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

More than 2 more than the other?.... invalid if one plays 15 games and the other 11

or

More than 2 overall?... invalid if both only play 14 games (because they both missed 3).

I don't know, I copy/pasted that from axeelf.

[AxeElf 787]

The official clause reads:

16 hours ago, AxeElf said:

the bet is invalidated if either player misses 2 or more full games due to an official injury designation

And no, I don't want to change.  Ertz or Goedert wouldn't be a contest.  At least Kmet gives you a chance--but then, he won't be spending most of his time blocking for Derrick Henry, so I'm not sure any TE I could choose would give you much of a chance.  Maybe if I was allowed to choose Will Dissly or something...

[weepaws 2,451]

I’m taking Kmet to win this one, I think he has the better chance of tossing a td pass with Fields at Qb.  

[AxeElf 787]

45 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

I have hooper penciled in at 90 catches for 950 yards and 8 td's.

That's probably reasonable, since Titans' lead TEs have caught 110 balls for 1,178 yards and 13 TDs... over the last 3 years combined.

lol

[Ray_T 587]

58 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

 

I have hooper penciled in at 90 catches for 950 yards and 8 td's. That is why he should choose Goedert or Ertz.

well, there is no doubt if you win you clearly see something the rest of us dont.

good luck to you sir.

[MTSkiBum 1,593]

24 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

That's probably reasonable, since Titans' lead TEs have caught 110 balls for 1,178 yards and 13 TDs... over the last 3 years combined.

lol

I acknowledged that, they had 2 different tight end roles, but hooper has both roles. He is the first real starting tight end they have had in 3 years.

Plus the receiver situation has changed. Instead of a young stud receiver his #1 competition for targets is a 30 year old, coming off an ACL tear that has 2 decent, but not great years and 7 mediocre years.

Hooper is going to get more targets this year than he has had before.

 

[AxeElf 787]

34 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

Hooper is going to get more targets this year than he has had before. 

Yeah, that's reasonable, since he has 408 targets before.

[JagFan 97]

Evan Engram is going to outproduce both of them…maybe combined.

[MTSkiBum 1,593]

5 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Yeah, that's reasonable, since he has 408 targets in his career.

I fixed my post, I need someone to follow me around to clean up my grammar. Thanks for the help 

[nobody 2,031]

Kmet has got to be the heavy favorite here.

[AxeElf 787]

27 minutes ago, JagFan said:

Evan Engram is going to outproduce both of them…maybe combined.

Evan Engram was the 5th guy on my list, but he wouldn't let me pick Engram.

[weepaws 2,451]

1 hour ago, JagFan said:

Evan Engram is going to outproduce both of them…maybe combined.

He’s going to make for a very good late draft pick, and or a stream. 

[jrokh 567]

Kmet -275

Hooper+300

[Bills04 45]

Per *my* rankings:

 

goedert = 12

ertz = 4

gesicki = 22

kmet = 11

hooper = 19

 

So, yeah; Kmet should win this pretty easily.

[weepaws 2,451]

13 minutes ago, Bills04 said:

Per *my* rankings:

 

goedert = 12

ertz = 4

gesicki = 22

kmet = 11

hooper = 19

 

So, yeah; Kmet should win this pretty easily.

Do you have Henry ranked as the best ff rb this season? Want to know how much I can trust you.  

[Bills04 45]

I'm in a PPR.  So = he's #2, behind Taylor.

[weepaws 2,451]

Just now, Bills04 said:

I'm in a PPR.  So = he's #2, behind Taylor.

Dam I thought I could trust you.  

[Bills04 45]

Oh .. so, what, Henry at #4, behind McCaffrey and Ekeler.  My bad.. 

[AxeElf 787]

22 minutes ago, Bills04 said:

Oh .. so, what, Henry at #4, behind McCaffrey and Ekeler.  My bad.. 

[JagFan 97]

4 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Evan Engram was the 5th guy on my list, but he wouldn't let me pick Engram.

Can’t believe we had a similar thought.  And Weepaws too.

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

I'm not sure Hooper wins this bet for you. 

[AxeElf 787]

Crap, I seem to be on the popular side of this bet.

I'm doomed...

(I feel like I just got an A+ from the Draft Analyzer.)

[nobody 2,031]

For whom does the public agree?  They agree with thee.

[AxeElf 787]

6 minutes ago, nobody said:

For whom does the public agree?  They agree with thee.

Nice.

[nobody 2,031]

Probably should've went with, "Never send for whom the public agrees.  We agree with thee."

Better ring to it, you know?

[MTSkiBum 1,593]

I am happy to see everyone on the other side, I was worried when he chose a scrub like Kmet.

 

 

[WhiteWonder 2,170]

Hate to say it but Im also in on Kmet. I actually think he picked the best of the 4 options. If he took Gesicki, i'd lean Hooper. 

 

Which bet did you beat him on last year? I forget. 

 

Axeelf is nothing more than a FF windbag though, so hopefully he finally wins something. 

 

Danny Dimes!

[AxeElf 787]

1 minute ago, WhiteWonder said:

Which bet did you beat him on last year? I forget.

Whether Antonio Brown would flame out or Robby Anderson would be a legitimate fantasy WR.

I technically lost by like one fantasy point, but we were both embarrassed at our respective players' performances.

[MTSkiBum 1,593]

22 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Whether Antonio Brown would flame out or Robby Anderson would be a legitimate fantasy WR.

I technically lost by like one fantasy point, but we were both embarrassed at our respective players' performances.

I was not embarrassed. Antonio Brown was a stud when he was on the field. Those are the types of players that you do not mind in a redraft league especially at the value i got him at. Who cares if i only get 7 starts out of a player. Give me that over a guy that gets 3 for 30 every week yet plays the whole season.

 

We all knew the risks with A brown, and he lasted just long enough before going crazy.

[MTSkiBum 1,593]

Also, everyone is sleeping on Hooper, which will make it that much sweeter when he is a top 5 TE.

[AxeElf 787]

23 hours ago, AxeElf said:

I technically lost by like one fantasy point, but we were both embarrassed at our respective players' performances.

 

17 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

I was not embarrassed.

I guess I should have said we both SHOULD have been embarrassed at our respective players' performances.

Perhaps you don't share Axe Elf's high level of self-esteem.

At least this year you'll learn some Elf-esteem.