Bellinger or Otton

[jpcdds 21]

More potential both short and long term in keeper league? 

[weepaws 2,460]

TE chat bah humbug. 

[Gepetto 985]

I've never heard of either.

[jpcdds 21]

51 minutes ago, weepaws said:

TE chat bah humbug. 

Yeah i know. There are so few worthy. Trying to see what everyone’s thoughts are on the next Andrews/Kelce

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, jpcdds said:

More potential both short and long term in keeper league? 

Right now I'd say Bellinger, because Otton has Brate for competition in the short term and we don't know how effective the Bucs will be without Brady in the long term.

Looks like the Giants have something going with Daniel and Daboll, and Bellinger is their TE for the foreseeable future.

That said, it is a little like straining at gnats, as neither one is likely to be a strong TE option.

[jpcdds 21]

2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Right now I'd say Bellinger, because Otton has Brate for competition in the short term and we don't know how effective the Bucs will be without Brady in the long term.

Looks like the Giants have something going with Daniel and Daboll, and Bellinger is their TE for the foreseeable future.

That said, it is a little like straining at gnats, as neither one is likely to be a strong TE option.

Appreciate the input. I have andrews. But was looking for some long term value or trade bait if either of those guys gets studly this year. 

[IGotWorms 3,315]

I like Bellinger more. Seems like the better physical specimen while still having the hands and route running 

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, jpcdds said:

But was looking for some long term value or trade bait if either of those guys gets studly this year. 

There aren't a lot of TEs you can trade for more than a shiny rock, so you probly won't find trade bait in either one of them in the foreseeable future.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

14 hours ago, jpcdds said:

More potential both short and long term in keeper league? 

I don't know much about Bellinger as a NY Giant, but as for Otton, the scouting reports coming out of college were that he's a pretty solid offensive weapon.  He apparently has a basketball background which for some reason seems to help for TE's at the NFL level... go figure.  Anyway, this group of coaches do not like rookies (see Rachaad White as proof), so this year, Otton will only play when the team is forced to play him.  That actually might be right now, with Brate probably going to miss at least this week and maybe more.  In the Atlanta game, Otton had 7 targets with 6 catches for 43 yards when Brate didn't play, and got 94% of the offensive snaps.  Another thing about this staff is that they don't use a lot of rotation.  They keep guys out there a lot.  So, if Otton does earn a starting job, he's going to get the snaps, the routes, and the targets.

From a long term perspective, the issue I see is, who'll be the QB?  Brady is likely to be gone after the year.  I was never a fan of the Trask pick, most of the stuff I saw of him from college very uninspiring.  From what I've seen of him in preseason, I haven't been swayed from that position.  Tampa will end up with 10+ wins this year, in the playoffs, and drafting in the 20's... out of the range of finding a top flight QB prospect (if there are any in the coming draft), so I envision them hitting the FA market or possibly even trading for someone to compete with Trask for the starting job.  I can actually see them going after Garoppolo (ugh).  I can even see Washington releasing Wentz, since there'll be no cap hit, and the Bucs bringing him in.  Either way, I think the aggressive game play of the Bucs is over, now that Bowles is the HC, so I doubt we see 38+ pass attempts per game going forward, so passing opportunities will be less... but I still think they'll be a pass friendly team, just not as much.

Going forward, I'd probably take Otton based on the potential of opportunity.  The Giants are 5-1, somehow, and Daniel Jones isn't even doing much.  The guy is averaging 26 attempts, 170 yards, and less than 1 TD per game.  This year, Bellinger may be a good option because their receiving corp is crap, but I think next year the team will replace Jones and look to add real talent to the WR room.  I don't know if that bodes well for Bellinger.  Also, teams in the north don't really throw the ball a ton as the season progresses unless you play in a dome or have a guy like Aaron Rodgers, and those 2 things don't exist in NJ.

From the scouting reports, Bellinger seems to be a 50/50 kind of pass catcher.  He's not all that good (or bad), of a route runner and doesn't really get separation.  He's apparently a really good run blocker.  On the Giants, I think his future is mostly as a run blocker who'll go out enough to get 5 or 6 targets a game.  He absolutely could develop into a better route runner as colleges don't really do TE's much of a service in developing TE's, but until that happens, I think he's a 5 to 6 target/game guy who's likely have about 4 catches for 30 yards.  I think Otton is probably a 6 to 7 target guy who's potentially 5 catch for 60 yards kind of guy.  You said you're looking for the future and you have Andrews.  Otton is the most likely to be another Andrews than Bellinger is.  That said, neither have played much, so I'm going by the scouting reports, situation, and the teams' offensive systems.  Like I said, I think Otton has the better upside, but I don't think it's enough to say "this is the guy you should take".  I wouldn't fault you one bit for siding with Bellinger.

[AxeElf 787]

2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think next year the team will replace Jones

Doubtful.  When NFL teams get a QB putting up Josh Allen kind of stats, they tend to hold onto them.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

Doubtful.  When NFL teams get a QB putting up Josh Allen kind of stats, they tend to hold onto them.

I agree... but that isn't Jones.

[AxeElf 787]

53 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I agree... but that isn't Jones.

Axually, it is.

If you look at Josh Allen's stats and Daniel Jones' stats through their first 38 games, they are virtually identical.

(That doesn't include the 6 games so far this year.)

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

5 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Axually, it is.

If you look at Josh Allen's stats and Daniel Jones' stats through their first 38 games, they are virtually identical.

(That doesn't include the 6 games so far this year.)

LOL... Jones' first season was better than Allen's, but after that, Allen has been leaps and bounds better.

Jones (31 games): 619-968 / 63.9% / 6,392 yards / 26 TD's (2.7%) / 19 Int (2.0%) / 6.6 ypa / 83.7 passer rating

Allen (2nd & 3rd seasons - 32 games): 667-1033 / 64.6% / 7,633 / 57 (5.5%) / 19 (1.8%) / 7.4 / 97.4

It's not even close.

[weepaws 2,460]

This is a ff board, Jones scored 730 ff points for a avg of 19.2 points per game his first 38 games 

Allen 880 for a avg of 23.1.  

Based on ff it’s not close , and the distance is getting greater every single game. 

[jrokh 569]

Josh Allen wouldn’t do much better with a bad OL and Ritchie James and David Sills as his primary receivers… 

[weepaws 2,460]

5 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Josh Allen wouldn’t do much better with a bad OL and Ritchie James and David Sills as his primary receivers… 

Shhh no Homers.  Move on to the Geek board. 

[AxeElf 787]

18 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Jones (31 games)

Allen (2nd & 3rd seasons - 32 games)

I said their first 38 games:

Completion Percentage

Daniel Jones:  63%

Josh Allen:  60%

Pass+Rush Yards per Game

Daniel Jones:  247

Josh Allen:  249

Pass TDs/INTs

Daniel Jones:  45/29

Josh Allen:  51/28

 

[IGotWorms 3,315]

I wonder if the Giants would be willing to part with Jones straight up for Allen, or if the Bills would have to sweet the pot with a first and second?  

[weepaws 2,460]

4 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

I wonder if the Giants would be willing to part with Jones straight up for Allen, or if the Bills would have to sweet the pot with a first and second?  

Mmmm? 

[AxeElf 787]

5 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

I wonder if the Giants would be willing to part with Jones straight up for Allen, or if the Bills would have to sweet the pot with a first and second?  

Only if they get his receivers as throw-ins.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

5 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

I said their first 38 games:

Completion Percentage

Daniel Jones:  63%

Josh Allen:  60%

Pass+Rush Yards per Game

Daniel Jones:  247

Josh Allen:  249

Pass TDs/INTs

Daniel Jones:  45/29

Josh Allen:  51/28

 

Wow, you should tell the Giants because they must not have known!  I mean, you'd think they'd have picked up his 5th year option if they did. 

[AxeElf 787]

Just now, TBayXXXVII said:

Wow, you should tell the Giants because they must not have known!  I mean, you'd think they'd have picked up his 5th year option if they did. 

Football players and coaches are a little slow.  They'll figure it out in time.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

24 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Football players and coaches are a little slow.  They'll figure it out in time.

This part is absolutely true.  There's a team that not only signed Jameis Winston, but gave him a new deal.  Another team thought it was a good idea to sign Mitch Trubisky to be their starter.  Then you have other teams who thought Baker Mayfield was an upgrade, Russell Wilson was still good, and Matt Ryan was an upgrade.

[jrokh 569]

2 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

I wonder if the Giants would be willing to part with Jones straight up for Allen, or if the Bills would have to sweet the pot with a first and second?  

If they would be willing to sweeten the pot, why wouldn’t the Giants prefer that option? 

[DocNiner 44]

Bellinger.will hold the better value both short and long term. Jones seems to be looking.his.way more.