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AxeElf

The Defense That Will Save Your Season

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Ok, a defense probably won't save your season, but Axe Elf still cares that you get the most production possible from your fantasy football team, so here's the tip that will ensure your dominance at that position for the playoff run.

Depending on the depth of your league, they may already be rostered, but coming off a game against Tampa Bay, with a game against New Orleans and then their bye coming up, most streamers probably have already dropped or will drop the Baltimore Ravens DST in the next week or two.

The Baltimore Ravens are currently tied for 8th place among fantasy DSTs, which is pretty good considering their schedule so far has consisted of Miami (5-3), the Flacco Jets (5-3), New England (4-4), Buffalo (6-1), Cincinnati (4-4), the Giants (6-2), Cleveland (3-5) and Tampa Bay (3-5).

After New Orleans this week and then their bye (should be able to pick them up after Week 10), their remaining schedule consists of Carolina (2-6), Jacksonville (2-6), Denver (3-5), Pittsburgh (2-6), Cleveland(3-5), and for the final two playoff weeks, Atlanta (4-4) and Pittsburgh (2-6) again.  They do play Cincinnati in Week 18, but hopefully no one is still playing fantasy football in Week 18.

Got Dallas?  They have Minnesota (6-1) and the Giants (6-2) coming up, and face Philadelphia (7-0) and Tennessee (5-2) in playoff weeks 16 and 17.

Got New England?  They have Minnesota (6-1) and Buffalo (6-1) coming up, and face Cincinnati (4-4) and Miami (5-3) in Weeks 16 and 17.

Got Buffalo?  They have Minnesota and Detroit coming up, and also face Miami and Cincinnati in two of their final three games.

Got Philadelphia?  They have Tennessee (5-2) and the Giants (6-2) coming up, and face Dallas (6-2) and New Orleans (3-5) in Weeks 16 and 17

You're welcome!.

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2 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Ok, a defense probably won't save your season, but Axe Elf still cares that you get the most production possible from your fantasy football team, so here's the tip that will ensure your dominance at that position for the playoff run.

Depending on the depth of your league, they may already be rostered, but coming off a game against Tampa Bay, with a game against New Orleans and then their bye coming up, most streamers probably have already dropped or will drop the Baltimore Ravens DST in the next week or two.

The Baltimore Ravens are currently tied for 8th place among fantasy DSTs, which is pretty good considering their schedule so far has consisted of Miami (5-3), the Flacco Jets (5-3), New England (4-4), Buffalo (6-1), Cincinnati (4-4), the Giants (6-2), Cleveland (3-5) and Tampa Bay (3-5).

After New Orleans this week and then their bye (should be able to pick them up after Week 10), their remaining schedule consists of Carolina (2-6), Jacksonville (2-6), Denver (3-5), Pittsburgh (2-6), Cleveland(3-5), and for the final two playoff weeks, Atlanta (4-4) and Pittsburgh (2-6) again.  They do play Cincinnati in Week 18, but hopefully no one is still playing fantasy football in Week 18.

Got Dallas?  They have Minnesota (6-1) and the Giants (6-2) coming up, and face Philadelphia (7-0) and Tennessee (5-2) in playoff weeks 16 and 17.

Got New England?  They have Minnesota (6-1) and Buffalo (6-1) coming up, and face Cincinnati (4-4) and Miami (5-3) in Weeks 16 and 17.

Got Buffalo?  They have Minnesota and Detroit coming up, and also face Miami and Cincinnati in two of their final three games.

Got Philadelphia?  They have Tennessee (5-2) and the Giants (6-2) coming up, and face Dallas (6-2) and New Orleans (3-5) in Weeks 16 and 17

You're welcome!.

I’m going to keep Dallas, at least until the playoffs start. In my league they have outscored Baltimore 102-70 thus far. Thanks for the unsolicited advice.

you’re welcome…

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1 hour ago, jrokh said:

I’m going to keep Dallas, at least until the playoffs start. In my league they have outscored Baltimore 102-70 thus far.

So you can see the benefit of playing teams like Washington, Detroit, the Rams, and the Bears.  In those 4 games, the Dallas DST scored 66 total points.  In their other 3 games, against Tampa Bay, Cincinnati and Philadelphia, they scored 16 total points.

Good luck going forward!

1 hour ago, jrokh said:

Thanks for the unsolicited advice.

Another smiling face hoisting a Championship Trophy is all the thanks Axe Elf needs.

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35 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

So you can see the benefit of playing teams like Washington, Detroit, the Rams, and the Bears.  In those 4 games, the Dallas DST scored 66 total points.  In their other 3 games, against Tampa Bay, Cincinnati and Philadelphia, they scored 16 total points.

Good luck going forward!

Another smiling face hoisting a Championship Trophy is all the thanks Axe Elf needs.

According to this very websites Strength of Schedule Chart, Balt and Dallas D each have one Green or ‘plus’ matchup remaining. Dallas does have one Red matchup (Min) while Baltimore has none. So if the only variable was which Defense has the better schedule remaining, then yeah Baltimore would be the answer. However, it isn’t the only variable. The most important is which defense scores more fantasy points. In that regard it isn’t even close. Dallas has outscored Balt by 4 points a week on average. Even if we cut that in half, it’s still not close. So again, I will stick with Dallas. Enjoy the mediocre (at best) Ravens…

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One green matchup remaining?  lol

They play four teams at 2-6, two teams at 3-5, and Atlanta at 4-4.  The only QBs among them that aren't a rookie or a retread are Trevor Lawrence and Russell Wilson, and Russ has been a "green matchup" all on his own.

Dallas has outscored Baltimore by 4 points per week during an 8 game stretch in which the Ravens haven't played a single team under .500?  Well guess what, Dallas playing teams that are under .500 has outscored Dallas playing teams that are .500 or better by 7.5 points per week, on average.

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Stream 

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49 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

One green matchup remaining?  lol

They play four teams at 2-6, two teams at 3-5, and Atlanta at 4-4.  The only QBs among them that aren't a rookie or a retread are Trevor Lawrence and Russell Wilson, and Russ has been a "green matchup" all on his own.

Dallas has outscored Baltimore by 4 points per week during an 8 game stretch in which the Ravens haven't played a single team under .500?  Well guess what, Dallas playing teams that are under .500 has outscored Dallas playing teams that are .500 or better by 7.5 points per week, on average.

Take it up with management. That’s what the Chart shows…

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1 hour ago, jrokh said:

That’s what the Chart shows

Sure, but that's why you have Axe Elf--so you don't have to go by the chart like everyone else.

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I drafted the Cowboys and they're the #1 D in my league.

They seem to be pretty match up proof. They force turnovers, sack the QB, block kicks, and score TDs. The stuff that scores points in fantasy.

Their worst game was the very first one against TB. They didn't do great against philly but they were serviceable.

I normally like streaming D/ST and I still may but I'm not taking them out of my line up much

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Can we take this a step further and let us know the talent level of the defense those upcoming offenses have played thus far.   Tia

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56 minutes ago, polecatt said:

They seem to be pretty match up proof.

They would be, other than for what I reported above--that they score an average of 7.5 more fantasy points against the opponents that are currently under .500 than they do against their opponents who are currently .500 or better.

That's kind of the opposite of "match up proof."

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Honestly, dropping Buffalo or Dallas is folly. If you stream, CAR has a fantastic playoff sched with PIT and DET weeks 15 and 16. Seattle is golden weeks 12-14. NYG is also sneaky weeks 15 and 17... 

 

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59 minutes ago, rallo said:

CAR has a fantastic playoff sched with PIT and DET weeks 15 and 16.

You might want to rethink putting your playoffs in the hands of a team facing a top 10 offense like Detroit.

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2 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

You might want to rethink putting your playoffs in the hands of a team facing a top 10 offense like Detroit.

Interesting. Since the Cowboys D put up over 20 fantasy points against that top ten offense, a few weeks ago. Your logic is scatterbrained…

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22 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Your logic is scatterbrained…

This from the person equating the Dallas D and the Carolina D?

smh...

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Thanks. I am streaming and the Ravens are available. I will pick them on the their bye week.

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I have 2 in several leagues that I feel comfortable rolling with the rest of the way.

Dallas Cowboys

Philadelphia Eagles

Just.play the better matchup each week.

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1 hour ago, DocNiner said:

I have 2 in several leagues that I feel comfortable rolling with the rest of the way.

Dallas Cowboys

Philadelphia Eagles

Just.play the better matchup each week.

LOL at carrying 2 defenses.

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Lol… your hot take defense is Baltimore who is 86% owned in fantasy leagues? Whoa easy on the hot takes. 
 

hey guys, you know who else is really good you guys should look at if they are available? The Buffalo defense. 

Do you want an actual sneaky defense that might actually be available? Seattle

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6 minutes ago, cyclone24 said:

Lol… your hot take defense is Baltimore who is 86% owned in fantasy leagues?

You could try reading more than the first line before you go showing your a$$ like this.

I'd be surprised if they are 86% owned after their bye next week--you know, when I recommended picking them up.

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5 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

You could try reading more than the first line before you go showing your a$$ like this.

I'd be surprised if they are 86% owned after their bye next week--you know, when I recommended picking them up.

Well, moron, I didn’t just pull 86% out of a hat. Yahoo. 86% owned. And on what planet is Baltimore some sneaky Defense in the last 15 to 20 years? JFC 

 

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2 minutes ago, cyclone24 said:

I didn’t just pull 86% out of a hat. Yahoo. 86% owned.

I believe you, but it's a current figure, and therefore, not relevant to my recommendation.

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10 hours ago, AxeElf said:

You could try reading more than the first line before you go showing your a$$ like this.

I'd be surprised if they are 86% owned after their bye next week--you know, when I recommended picking them up.

Well for your information these leagues have expanded rosters of 25 players. I don't think it's unrealistic to carry 2 defenses given the roster size and even in one league the rules have you starting two defenses. And NO, these are not 4 team leagues. Two of the leagues I'm in first place with a 7-1 record and another league I'm 6-2 so having these 2 defenses HAS NOT hurt my team and I'm grateful I have them as they have both helped me to a decent record. I'll just keep doing what I'm doing all the way to the title.

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4 hours ago, DocNiner said:

Well for your information these leagues have expanded rosters of 25 players. I don't think it's unrealistic to carry 2 defenses given the roster size and even in one league the rules have you starting two defenses. And NO, these are not 4 team leagues. Two of the leagues I'm in first place with a 7-1 record and another league I'm 6-2 so having these 2 defenses HAS NOT hurt my team and I'm grateful I have them as they have both helped me to a decent record. I'll just keep doing what I'm doing all the way to the title.

If you think people are talking about you or your leagues, it could be a symptom of paranoid schizophrenia.

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On 11/2/2022 at 11:57 AM, AxeElf said:

Ok, a defense probably won't save your season, but Axe Elf still cares that you get the most production possible from your fantasy football team, so here's the tip that will ensure your dominance at that position for the playoff run.

Depending on the depth of your league, they may already be rostered, but coming off a game against Tampa Bay, with a game against New Orleans and then their bye coming up, most streamers probably have already dropped or will drop the Baltimore Ravens DST in the next week or two.

The Baltimore Ravens are currently tied for 8th place among fantasy DSTs, which is pretty good considering their schedule so far has consisted of Miami (5-3), the Flacco Jets (5-3), New England (4-4), Buffalo (6-1), Cincinnati (4-4), the Giants (6-2), Cleveland (3-5) and Tampa Bay (3-5).

After New Orleans this week and then their bye (should be able to pick them up after Week 10), their remaining schedule consists of Carolina (2-6), Jacksonville (2-6), Denver (3-5), Pittsburgh (2-6), Cleveland(3-5), and for the final two playoff weeks, Atlanta (4-4) and Pittsburgh (2-6) again.  They do play Cincinnati in Week 18, but hopefully no one is still playing fantasy football in Week 18.

Got Dallas?  They have Minnesota (6-1) and the Giants (6-2) coming up, and face Philadelphia (7-0) and Tennessee (5-2) in playoff weeks 16 and 17.

Got New England?  They have Minnesota (6-1) and Buffalo (6-1) coming up, and face Cincinnati (4-4) and Miami (5-3) in Weeks 16 and 17.

Got Buffalo?  They have Minnesota and Detroit coming up, and also face Miami and Cincinnati in two of their final three games.

Got Philadelphia?  They have Tennessee (5-2) and the Giants (6-2) coming up, and face Dallas (6-2) and New Orleans (3-5) in Weeks 16 and 17

You're welcome!.

I’ll add - I just saw Bal at the Dome & Roquan was all over the place, he elevated the defense, plus Houston & Campbell they are very strong up front.

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On 11/6/2022 at 11:34 AM, AxeElf said:

If you think people are talking about you or your leagues, it could be a symptom of paranoid schizophrenia.

Pot …..kettle

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44 minutes ago, cyclone24 said:

Pot …..kettle

Curious.  Usually the old "pot calling the kettle black" trope is used when someone is doing the same thing they are accusing someone else of doing, which is obviously not the case here, since I'm not thinking that people are talking about me or my leagues in this discussion of fantasy defenses.

So does that have some other meaning for you in this context, or are you merely a fool?  Seems like I've had interactions with you in the past that would suggest the latter, but I'm willing to hear you out in your defense.

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I like the Raiders this week. Rookie QB, brand new coach. Who has never coached 

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18 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

I like the Raiders this week. Rookie QB, brand new coach. Who has never coached 

It's a great matchup if you're looking to fill Baltimore's bye week, but a great matchup isn't everything, and the Raiders' defense has scored more than 3 points exactly twice this season--and twice they have been shut out.

On the plus side, their two big games were against Denver and Houston--so maybe a bad matchup is just what they need.

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

Curious.  Usually the old "pot calling the kettle black" trope is used when someone is doing the same thing they are accusing someone else of doing, which is obviously not the case here, since I'm not thinking that people are talking about me or my leagues in this discussion of fantasy defenses.

So does that have some other meaning for you in this context, or are you merely a fool?  Seems like I've had interactions with you in the past that would suggest the latter, but I'm willing to hear you out in your defense.

Well, my defense is that you get on a lightly trafficked message board as if people are taking your advice.

so hopefully, you see the irony in your post relating to that. 

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16 minutes ago, cyclone24 said:

you get on a lightly trafficked message board as if people are taking your advice.

That's only those that want to win.

Every league needs 11 also-rans as well.

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31 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

That's only those that want to win.

Every league needs 11 also-rans as well.

Sure sweetie…sure.

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53 minutes ago, cyclone24 said:

Sure sweetie…sure.

Let's keep our sexual fantasies regarding Axe Elf to ourselves, shall we?

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Jets D? They got 10 points in my league against the Bills. They have been matchup proof after a slow start and have 7+ points in each of the last 6 games.

I feel like i should stash them because teams are starting to double up on defenses (5  of 12 teams). And being stuck with the 15+ best option at D is not fun some weeks and you just pray not to go negative. I would drop Toney this week for 2nd defense.

 

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1 hour ago, Byrdman5 said:

I would drop Toney this week for 2nd defense.

Don't.  Skill players are worth WAY more than DSTs, unless you have some unorthodox scoring that favors them or something.

In most normal leagues, every D out there will score about 7.5 points, with a standard deviation of about 2.  A couple will have great days, but they're not necessarily the most favorable matchups; sometimes it's just a lucky bounce fumble recovery TD or something.  And sometimes the Eagles get 4.

A new toy for Mahomes is much shinier than a 2nd D.

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On 11/2/2022 at 11:57 AM, AxeElf said:

After New Orleans this week and then their bye (should be able to pick them up after Week 10), their remaining schedule consists of Carolina (2-6), Jacksonville (2-6), Denver (3-5), Pittsburgh (2-6), Cleveland (3-5), and for the final two playoff weeks, Atlanta (4-4) and Pittsburgh (2-6) again.  They do play Cincinnati in Week 18, but hopefully no one is still playing fantasy football in Week 18.

UPDATE:  BAL goes into their Week 10 bye as the #7 overall DST (#8 in avg ppg).  The 7 updated records on their remaining schedule are Carolina (3-7), Jacksonville (3-6), Denver (3-5), Pittsburgh (2-6), Cleveland (3-5), Atlanta (4-6) and Pittsburgh (2-6).  Cumulative Record 20-41 (0.328).  Yes, that's correct.  Twenty total wins among all seven remaining opponents, halfway through the season.

If they weren't dropped this week, try trading an old washed up QB with a name like Brady or Rodgers for them.

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I picked them up in 2 leagues where the owner dropped them during their bye.  You better be right Elf!  

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