2022 Midterm Elections

[cmh6476 748]

Thoughts on races in your state or anywhere else?  I don't see Missouri changing anything.  Retiring gop senator likely to be retained by the republican.   We do have a number of house open seats but I imagine they'll stay 6-2 gop as well. 

 

Something interesting I heard somewhere the other day was in some of the contested races looking shows that voters do not like the way the country is heading, but don't necessarily tie that to their own senator and some of the polling is showing the incumbent with slight leads. 

Hard to trust polling anymore, and it feels like the house and senate should both flip. 

 

[Alias Detective 1,179]

PA here.  
Clearly Fetterman isn’t physically or mentally fit for office.  His ideas are written in chalk.  On a windy day his positions change.

[MDC 5,877]

14 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

PA here.  
Clearly Fetterman isn’t physically or mentally fit for office.  His ideas are written in chalk.  On a windy day his positions change.

GOP would have won easily if they’d picked literally any Pennsylvania resident.

They picked Mehmet Oz.  

[Alias Detective 1,179]

5 minutes ago, MDC said:

GOP would have won easily if they’d picked literally any Pennsylvania resident.

They picked Mehmet Oz.  

If fetterman that bad?

[IGotWorms 3,302]

Gonna be a blood bath for the Democrats. Too much headwind with inflation, etc., plus president’s party always does poorly in midterms. They also haven’t helped themselves with their messaging, probably should’ve mostly just focused on abortion instead of the Big Lie, January 6 and all the other stuff

[5-Points 2,716]

California will continue to circle the bowl leaving nothing but skid marks and some freckles on the way down. 

[Mungwater 588]

It’s going to be hilarious on both sides

[Horseman 1,511]

Republicans need any two of NV, AZ, PA, GA and they take control of the Senate. Betting markets have it at 70% chance or better.  

Even in states like WA the Republicans are polling within the margin of error. That never happens.  

 

[JustinCharge 2,397]

I don't know whats going to happen.  It feels like it would be SUPER easy to cheat with all of these absentee ballot boxes everywhere.  I've had relatives tell me in 2020 that they showed up to vote and were told they already voted.  Wouldn't shock me if someone found a way to falsify a ballot, stuff it into the ballot box with their name, and vote straight dem.  If they actually show up to vote and fix it to vote republican, whatever, many will not show up.  And if this has been happening, nothing has been done to fix it.  

[Horseman 1,511]

I posted in another thread that the Republicans chances to take the Senate has moved from 45% to 46% and 48% over the past week or so according to 538. 

Republicans are now favored to win the Senate at 53%  

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,566]

1 hour ago, IGotWorms said:

Gonna be a blood bath for the Democrats. Too much headwind with inflation, etc., plus president’s party always does poorly in midterms. They also haven’t helped themselves with their messaging, probably should’ve mostly just focused on abortion instead of the Big Lie, January 6 and all the other stuff

6% of people list abortion as their biggest issue

[Horseman 1,511]

House has moved from 80% to 85%  

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

Do love the irony that in 2020 the polls (Like 538, etc.) pointed to Biden winning and people were like "Polls don't matter. They don't interview Trump supporters. Republicans work when they make phone calls...."Now that the polls show the GOP ahead it is "The polls have the GOP winning so it's set."

 

Here in PA it seems like the Senator spot is more of a toss-up than I think the Democrats or Republicans thought it would be at various times. Have no idea how it turns out but I would say if a lot of people vote outside of mail in ballots it probably goes to Oz.

The Republicans though completely shat themselves on the governor spot it seems like. Doug Mastriano does not seem to have any momentum whatsoever. I never get any thing asking me to vote for him and the most they can ever say about him is "Remember Trump? Doug commissioned a bus to the rally on January 6th." Not the most compelling argument. 

[Horseman 1,511]

8 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Do love the irony that in 2020 the polls (Like 538, etc.) pointed to Biden winning and people were like "Polls don't matter. They don't interview Trump supporters. Republicans work when they make phone calls...."Now that the polls show the GOP ahead it is "The polls have the GOP winning so it's set."

Who is saying that, the little voice in your head?

538's adjustments favor the Dems, that's just fact.  They had Hillary by 5+ in 2016.  It's the trends that matter and they show the Dems getting slaughtered.  That's why 538 has the Senate at 53% and betting markets have it at 70%.  Sentiment.   

I dont expect you'll understand any of that though.  

[Horseman 1,511]

16 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

The Democrats though completely shat themselves on the governor spot it seems like. Doug Mastriano does not seem to have any momentum whatsoever. 

Mastriano is a Republican dummy. 

That race wasnt ever going to be close. That's not shatting themselves. That's spending money where it matters and that is smart. 

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

Typed the wrong thing above on Mastriano's party for some reason....fixed it now. My bad. 

 

[Horseman 1,511]

Dem Senate +250

Rep Senate -350

Dem House +1100

Rep House -3000

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

I appreciate the humor involved in the fact that  a guy who claims to be a "winner" with a "bikini model HOT wife" () is so determined to try to get one over on me on a fantasy football message board. 

Yeah- that is something a "winner" tries to do.

 

[Horseman 1,511]

The top 3 closest governor races have the Republicans slightly ahead to flip the states from blue to red. WI, OR, NV. 

[Horseman 1,511]

1 minute ago, Sean Mooney said:

I appreciate the humor involved in the fact that  a guy who claims to be a "winner" with a "bikini model HOT wife" () is so determined to try to get one over on me on a fantasy football message board. 

Yeah- that is something a "winner" tries to do.

 

 

15 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Who is saying that, the little voice in your head?

I cant help it if crap comes out every time you try to post. That's a YOU problem and doesn't have anything to do with how hot my wife is. She is hot though.  

[Kopy 489]

I hope we don't change anything. Our lives are significantly better now than they were 2 years ago. Our savior doesn't tweet. I repeat, the president doesn't tweet. We're all good now.

 

[craftsman 1,045]

17 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

I appreciate the humor involved in the fact that  a guy who claims to be a "winner" with a "bikini model HOT wife" () is so determined to try to get one over on me on a fantasy football message board. 

Yeah- that is something a "winner" tries to do.

 

This is Wiffle level drunk posting right here.

[IGotWorms 3,302]

1 hour ago, JustinCharge said:

I don't know whats going to happen.  It feels like it would be SUPER easy to cheat with all of these absentee ballot boxes everywhere.  I've had relatives tell me in 2020 that they showed up to vote and were told they already voted.  Wouldn't shock me if someone found a way to falsify a ballot, stuff it into the ballot box with their name, and vote straight dem.  If they actually show up to vote and fix it to vote republican, whatever, many will not show up.  And if this has been happening, nothing has been done to fix it.  

[IGotWorms 3,302]

1 hour ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

6% of people list abortion as their biggest issue

Ok a different one then. My point is they’ve been throwing it all against the wall to see what sticks—not much of a strategy, imo 

[cmh6476 748]

1 hour ago, Horseman said:

The top 3 closest governor races have the Republicans slightly ahead to flip the states from blue to red. WI, OR, NV. 

Kansas has a Democrat governor up for re- election

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,566]

1 hour ago, IGotWorms said:

Ok a different one then. My point is they’ve been throwing it all against the wall to see what sticks—not much of a strategy, imo 

the only things I truly think people care about are economy and crime, 2 things democrats are doing NOTHING about and making 1000x worse

the cashless bail thing is the biggest joke I have ever heard of, in California its not even an arrestable offense as long as you steal under 950$, people don't like open borders in general either

even real democrats (like Tulsi, I just watched an interview with John Stossil from 2019 and damn her views are pretty far left by my standards, but she literally seems like the only sane voice from the party)

 

[Voltaire 4,554]

I hope the polls under sample the GOP vote again because that would usher in the strong re wave I hope to see.

It would be particularly nice to have an election without allegations of voter fraud. That requires all involved to embrace transparency and shine sunlight, with good faith cooperation between workers and observers.

Hopefully we’re still capable of doing that. Watching the left’s behavior last time, then attempt to codify their insecure balloting measures against good faith GOP efforts to return integrity and restore confidence to the system leaves me worried.

 

 

[Hardcore troubadour 12,593]

Biden created 115 million jobs. Hard to see how the democrats can lose.  

[JustinCharge 2,397]

5 hours ago, Sean Mooney said:

Do love the irony that in 2020 the polls (Like 538, etc.) pointed to Biden winning and people were like "Polls don't matter. They don't interview Trump supporters. Republicans work when they make phone calls...."Now that the polls show the GOP ahead it is "The polls have the GOP winning so it's set." 

this fallacy gets said by democrats every election.  

what ACTUALLY happens is reublicans often say "polls usually skew left.  so if the polls are calling the race for the democrat, it is still questionable.  but if polls actually call the race for the republican, its a damn near lock."  and then liberals add their spin and lie and say what you said, using the typical lies of omission to never mention all the times republicans talk about skewed polling.  its a particulaly nasty bit of gaslighting done by liberals every election.  you can just copy and paste this post and save it for every damn election we ever have.  the liberals just keep lying every time.  liberals always act smug and think they GOTCHA! with this post and in reality they are just idiots.

[JustinCharge 2,397]

2 hours ago, Voltaire said:

I hope the polls under sample the GOP vote again because that would usher in the strong re wave I hope to see.

It would be particularly nice to have an election without allegations of voter fraud. That requires all involved to embrace transparency and shine sunlight, with good faith cooperation between workers and observers.

Hopefully we’re still capable of doing that. Watching the left’s behavior last time, then attempt to codify their insecure balloting measures against good faith GOP efforts to return integrity and restore confidence to the system leaves me worried.

no.  every election we ever have from now on will have charges and accusations of voter fraud.  genie is out of the bottle.

[bostonlager 2,457]

The senate is the most important. A win for the good guys means we can stop the staining of our courts and block the diversity appointments. 

[BunnysBastatrds 1,911]

20 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

The senate is the most important. A win for the good guys means we can stop the staining of our courts and block the diversity appointments. 

The diapers?

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

2 hours ago, JustinCharge said:

this fallacy gets said by democrats every election.  

what ACTUALLY happens is reublicans often say "polls usually skew left.  so if the polls are calling the race for the democrat, it is still questionable.  but if polls actually call the race for the republican, its a damn near lock."  and then liberals add their spin and lie and say what you said, using the typical lies of omission to never mention all the times republicans talk about skewed polling.  its a particulaly nasty bit of gaslighting done by liberals every election.  you can just copy and paste this post and save it for every damn election we ever have.  the liberals just keep lying every time.  liberals always act smug and think they GOTCHA! with this post and in reality they are just idiots.

You literally said the last thing I mentioned last week...

Or was this another occasion where you say something but you aren't actually saying it?

Also, this whole comment by you is a particularly fun bit of crazy. 

[Voltaire 4,554]

3 hours ago, JustinCharge said:

this fallacy gets said by democrats every election.  

what ACTUALLY happens is reublicans often say "polls usually skew left.  so if the polls are calling the race for the democrat, it is still questionable.  but if polls actually call the race for the republican, its a damn near lock."  and then liberals add their spin and lie and say what you said, using the typical lies of omission to never mention all the times republicans talk about skewed polling.  its a particulaly nasty bit of gaslighting done by liberals every election.  you can just copy and paste this post and save it for every damn election we ever have.  the liberals just keep lying every time.  liberals always act smug and think they GOTCHA! with this post and in reality they are just idiots.

Here's a few tips I use when reading polls that help me out.  First, don't look at one poll, look at the aggregate of all the polls across many polling firms. It's it's too good or too bad it's probably an outlier. Second, is if is the polls shows  a GOP lead, it's very likely to be a GOP win. The tossups are polls that give Dems +0-+5 lead. A third, and the best way that always works in reading polls is look at the last time this same firm did a poll and then compare the new results to the last one. For example, Emerson has a new poll. What did their poll from three weeks ago say? What about the Emerson poll from a month and a half ago? If you do that, you'll find that all the polling firms numbers move similarly in the same direction, and it gives you a really solid understanding of which way the result is trending and how fast.

So polls skew left, yes. I understand, but they are still useful.

[Voltaire 4,554]

2 hours ago, JustinCharge said:

no.  every election we ever have from now on will have charges and accusations of voter fraud.  genie is out of the bottle.

That'd be a terrible development. If we can't trust our elections, we'll never recover fully. Last year Virginia and New Jersey held elections that seemed above board, let's hope everybody else joins them.

Captain Poopypants was just on TV telling people not to trust the results of the vote for days after the election, ostensibly to count the mail in ballots coming. Dems love the mail-in ballot system while Republicans recognize there's so many places/opportunities for fraud to seep in. The Dems also want to take emergency COVID contingency measures and make them permanent. But there are more observers who have been trained on what allegedly were Dems tricks used in the past. Meanwhile, some states have had reasonable measures put into place to ensure the integrity of elections. Not enough states though and sadly not Michigan. We need a new governor, secretary of state, and attorney general for that.

So.. fingers crossed that the problems go away.

 

[Sean Mooney 1,184]

1 hour ago, Voltaire said:

Here's a few tips I use when reading polls that help me out.  First, don't look at one poll, look at the aggregate of all the polls across many polling firms. It's it's too good or too bad it's probably an outlier. Second, is if is the polls shows  a GOP lead, it's very likely to be a GOP win. The tossups are polls that give Dems +0-+5 lead. A third, and the best way that always works in reading polls is look at the last time this same firm did a poll and then compare the new results to the last one. For example, Emerson has a new poll. What did their poll from three weeks ago say? What about the Emerson poll from a month and a half ago? If you do that, you'll find that all the polling firms numbers move similarly in the same direction, and it gives you a really solid understanding of which way the result is trending and how fast.

So polls skew left, yes. I understand, but they are still useful.

If polls are viewed in a vacuum then yes they are faulty. If one does what you do looking at trends and one poll to the next and whatnot- things become far clearer in how they can be read and laid out. But in this thread alone we have people who in the past have undercut polls now saying they are great only because they are looking at the result being spit out and not the trend.

Of course it's because the trend requires more thought and nuance. 

[Reality 2,710]

A group that is largely responsible for the mess we are in may be coming to their senses. Yup, our wives.

 

[dogcows 1,029]

1 hour ago, Voltaire said:

That'd be a terrible development. If we can't trust our elections, we'll never recover fully. Last year Virginia and New Jersey held elections that seemed above board, let's hope everybody else joins them.

Captain Poopypants was just on TV telling people not to trust the results of the vote for days after the election, ostensibly to count the mail in ballots coming. Dems love the mail-in ballot system while Republicans recognize there's so many places/opportunities for fraud to seep in. The Dems also want to take emergency COVID contingency measures and make them permanent. But there are more observers who have been trained on what allegedly were Dems tricks used in the past. Meanwhile, some states have had reasonable measures put into place to ensure the integrity of elections. Not enough states though and sadly not Michigan. We need a new governor, secretary of state, and attorney general for that.

So.. fingers crossed that the problems go away.

 

Mail-in ballots are not fraudulent. Fraud doesn’t “seep in” if a ballot isn’t counted within 15 minutes. Multiple states in America have had mail-in ballots for everybody for years. Military members have mailed in ballots since the 1800s.

What a steaming pile of bullish!t. And you believe it for one reason and one reason only. Donald Trump told you to before the 2020 election results came in. He knew he was gonna lose, so he started calling “fraud” before a single vote was cast.

I thought after the first 50 failed court cases by Trump, the idiots would realize they’d been played. Nope. Still living with their heads firmly implanted in Trump’s anus. And with all that fast food he’s ingested over 70+ years on the planet, it can’t be very pleasant in there.

[Alias Detective 1,179]

12 hours ago, MDC said:

GOP would have won easily if they’d picked literally any Pennsylvania resident.

They picked Mehmet Oz.  

 

12 hours ago, Alias Detective said:

If fetterman that bad?

Please answer.

[Masshole 642]

Prediction?