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bfros

is now the time to buy low'ish on CMC?

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prior this week, most had CMC as the undisputed top RB rest of season. Then Mitchell returned and ate into his carries (substantially) and Shanahan then admits after game that he'd like to see a 50/50 split between CMC and Mitchell going forward. So...... 

I still think CMC's value is very high in that offense. 

I have D.Cook and Barkley as my top 2 RBs. 1/2 ppr. Would you try to trade either for CMC? I'm hesitant but thinking about it, esp Dalvin Cook after his big game. I'm not sure he has quite the ceiling that CMC does. He is the bellcow for Minn but he's only topped 100 rushing yards twice this year and his rushing volume (touches) is not super high. Could be close to what CMC's is per game going forward. For ex, last week Cook carried it 14 times. CMC also had 14 carries (but more receptions). Feels like CMC may have a higher floor. 

Would you trade Cook to get CMC? 

 

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Not with the news that the Niners coach wants to split the work load between Mitchell and Mccaffery. 

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I would say yes....but I'd also say- not sure why the CMC owner would trade him for just Cook. Feel like you'd have to do a 2 for 1 which might not be as worth it. 

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Would the CMC owner (I'm sorry, drafter) do it? If I had CMC I wouldn't but I would for Barkley, so gage the interest level first,

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6 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Would the CMC owner (I'm sorry, drafter) do it? If I had CMC I wouldn't but I would for Barkley, so gage the interest level first,

This, and frankly, I wouldn't do it as a Barkley owner. 

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13 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

I would say yes....but I'd also say- not sure why the CMC owner would trade him for just Cook. Feel like you'd have to do a 2 for 1 which might not be as worth it. 

the CMC owner might trade for Cook because he sees CMC in a split backfield now having just been outproduced by Mitchell plus the coach admitting it's gonna be 50/50. There's certainly reason. Plus Cook just flashed. And he's the bellcow on a good offense. 

I would never offer Cook plus something for CMC. That's too much imo

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5 minutes ago, rallo said:

This, and frankly, I wouldn't do it as a Barkley owner. 

I tend to agree. Barkley just has so so much volume (and talent), although I'd much prefer the SF offense and run game over the Giants. But still, hard to deal him for CMC esp now that CMC will split with Mitchell. 

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3 minutes ago, bfros said:

the CMC owner might trade for Cook because he sees CMC in a split backfield now having just been outproduced by Mitchell plus the coach admitting it's gonna be 50/50. There's certainly reason. Plus Cook just flashed. And he's the bellcow on a good offense. 

I would never offer Cook plus something for CMC. That's too much imo

I know what Shanahan said but they didn't spend the draft capitol they did to bring in CMC to be a platoon back the rest of the way. 

If you aren't offering more than as a CMC owner I'm laughing at you. 

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32 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Not with the news that the Niners coach wants to split the work load between Mitchell and Mccaffery. 

Right, I conceeded that point in my post. I do wonder if CMC and Cook will both have about the same number of touches. If they are even remotely close (and I think they very well could be), I'd prefer CMC. I see CMC outproducing Cook in the pass game even with Mitchell playing, so it really comes down to whether Cook can be more efficient with his carries than CMC will be. I think it could be very close. 

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6 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

I know what Shanahan said but they didn't spend the draft capitol they did to bring in CMC to be a platoon back the rest of the way. 

If you aren't offering more than as a CMC owner I'm laughing at you. 

well Shanahan just did the exact opposite and used him a split, and it worked great. Mitchell looked great. There are gonna be CMC owners who will deal him for Cook. Hell, Weepaws above admitted said he would. I hear that you would not, but people will. That's why I'm asking. Forget my two guys (Cook and Barkley). The point is that after last week CMC's position as the RB1 ROS may be vulnerable. Folks might want to try to nab him. I'm not wrong about that. 

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1 hour ago, bfros said:

well Shanahan just did the exact opposite and used him a split, and it worked great. Mitchell looked great. There are gonna be CMC owners who will deal him for Cook. Hell, Weepaws above admitted said he would. I hear that you would not, but people will. That's why I'm asking. Forget my two guys (Cook and Barkley). The point is that after last week CMC's position as the RB1 ROS may be vulnerable. Folks might want to try to nab him. I'm not wrong about that. 

Weepaws is a moron.

If you offer Cook for CMC and it gets accepted that owner is a moron. 

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3 hours ago, bfros said:

Right, I conceeded that point in my post. I do wonder if CMC and Cook will both have about the same number of touches. If they are even remotely close (and I think they very well could be), I'd prefer CMC. I see CMC outproducing Cook in the pass game even with Mitchell playing, so it really comes down to whether Cook can be more efficient with his carries than CMC will be. I think it could be very close. 

I would rather have Cook, in half ppr he has scored 20 plus points three of his last five games.  

I think the staff is now understanding a roll for him on their new system that they went to during the offseason.  

If I am a Mccaffery owner I would be very concern by the amount of usage Mitchell given. 

Yea I would trade Mccaffery for Cook, but I wouldn’t trade Cook for Mccaffery, and of course both have Injury concerns.  

Hey good luck with this tough decision. 

 

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4 hours ago, bfros said:

prior this week, most had CMC as the undisputed top RB rest of season. Then Mitchell returned and ate into his carries (substantially) and Shanahan then admits after game that he'd like to see a 50/50 split between CMC and Mitchell going forward. So...... 

I still think CMC's value is very high in that offense. 

I have D.Cook and Barkley as my top 2 RBs. 1/2 ppr. Would you try to trade either for CMC? I'm hesitant but thinking about it, esp Dalvin Cook after his big game. I'm not sure he has quite the ceiling that CMC does. He is the bellcow for Minn but he's only topped 100 rushing yards twice this year and his rushing volume (touches) is not super high. Could be close to what CMC's is per game going forward. For ex, last week Cook carried it 14 times. CMC also had 14 carries (but more receptions). Feels like CMC may have a higher floor. 

Would you trade Cook to get CMC? 

 

I like the idea of a (reasonable) buy low on CMC, but no, I would not trade Cook or Barkley. Even when CMC’s role is very clearly defined he is too much of an injury risk for that 

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Not really all that worried about CMC, especially after listening to Shanahan talk after the game.

He said "the goal" is to get them "about even carries." Shanahan would like nothing more than to run the ball 35 times a game, so there should be enough work for both of them in positive game script games. You won't be able to convince Shanahan will sit CMC for Mitchell at any point when games where the 49ers are trailing or in "gotta-have-it" situations.

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8 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

Not really all that worried about CMC, especially after listening to Shanahan talk after the game.

He said "the goal" is to get them "about even carries." Shanahan would like nothing more than to run the ball 35 times a game, so there should be enough work for both of them in positive game script games. You won't be able to convince Shanahan will sit CMC for Mitchell at any point when games where the 49ers are trailing or in "gotta-have-it" situations.

That is the other thing- CMC is going to be the guy when they are looking for receiving from the running backs as well. 

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If I had Barkley or Cook, I'd trade either one for McCaffrey.

Right now, Barkley is averaging almost 26 touches per game.  The last time he averaged that many and stayed healthy, was never.  His rookie season, he averaged 22 touches a game.  After that, he played in 13 (averaging 20.7 touches), 2, and 13 (15.6 touches), games.  His usage is on a collision course for an injury.  He's on pace for 428 total touches.  Sell high.  You might even get something more.

Cook has never played a full season in his 5 years.  He's played every game this year.  Odds are he misses 2 or 3.  The longer he goes without getting hurt, the more likely misses games in December, which is bad for fantasy football'ers.

I'm perfectly happy, and excited if McCaffrey only gets 12 carries a game because he's probably going to get 5 to 8 receptions.  He's also going to get the goal line work.  I'll take 12 carries for 50 yards and 7 receptions for 60 yards and be fine with 14.5 (.5 PPR), every week know he's going to get at least 1 TD... and that's being conservative.  Last week was a "bad" week for McCaffrey and in .5 PRR leagues, he score 15.7 points.  On average, that qualifies as RB8.  Yeah, I'll take McCaffrey.  To note, McCaffrey's bad week (15.7 point), is higher than what Cook is averaging right now in 9 games (15.4). 

Right now, RB12 in .5 PPR leagues is averaging 14.2 fpg.  Dalvin Cook has failed to hit that number in 5 of 9 games.  

So yeah, I'll take McCaffrey over both.

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No mention of Mccaffery injury problems in his past? 

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Yeah like Cook is the only one with a history of injury problems. 

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15 hours ago, weepaws said:

No mention of Mccaffery injury problems in his past? 

 

14 hours ago, taco breath said:

what about cmcs injuries from the past?

 

13 hours ago, weepaws said:

Yeah like Cook is the only one with a history of injury problems. 

Sorry, I figured that was common sense.  McCaffrey has played in 3 full seasons out of 5, which is 2 more than Barkley and Cook combined.  In those 5 seasons, he's averaged over 20 & 25 touches in 2 of them while playing 16 games.  This year, he's averaging less than 20.  Meaning, he's been more durable than the other 2 and is being used less.  His injury risk is definitely lower.  On top of that, he's a better runner and receiver than both Barkley and Cook and plays on team who's offensive system/game plan is more conducive to better production out of the backfield.

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2020-today. Cook has played in 36 games , Barkley 24 games , Mccaffery 18, Mccaffery appears to be the one I would be more concern about.  

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15 minutes ago, weepaws said:

2020-today. Cook has played in 36 games , Barkley 24 games , Mccaffery 18, Mccaffery appears to be the one I would be more concern about.  

Sure, you can look at it that way if you want a muted sample size instead of a full body of work.  Cook & McCaffrey entered the league in 2017 and Barkley in 2018.  We're talking about 3 guys who've been in the league for roughly the same amount of time.  It's not like we're comparing Aaron Rodgers & Joe Burrow where there's something like a 15 year gap.

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18 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

If I had Barkley or Cook, I'd trade either one for McCaffrey.

Right now, Barkley is averaging almost 26 touches per game.  The last time he averaged that many and stayed healthy, was never.  His rookie season, he averaged 22 touches a game.  After that, he played in 13 (averaging 20.7 touches), 2, and 13 (15.6 touches), games.  His usage is on a collision course for an injury.  He's on pace for 428 total touches.  Sell high.  You might even get something more.

Cook has never played a full season in his 5 years.  He's played every game this year.  Odds are he misses 2 or 3.  The longer he goes without getting hurt, the more likely misses games in December, which is bad for fantasy football'ers.

I'm perfectly happy, and excited if McCaffrey only gets 12 carries a game because he's probably going to get 5 to 8 receptions.  He's also going to get the goal line work.  I'll take 12 carries for 50 yards and 7 receptions for 60 yards and be fine with 14.5 (.5 PPR), every week know he's going to get at least 1 TD... and that's being conservative.  Last week was a "bad" week for McCaffrey and in .5 PRR leagues, he score 15.7 points.  On average, that qualifies as RB8.  Yeah, I'll take McCaffrey.  To note, McCaffrey's bad week (15.7 point), is higher than what Cook is averaging right now in 9 games (15.4). 

Right now, RB12 in .5 PPR leagues is averaging 14.2 fpg.  Dalvin Cook has failed to hit that number in 5 of 9 games.  

So yeah, I'll take McCaffrey over both.

exactly. this.  This is why I'd try to trade to get CMC and hope the CMC owner doesn't see it this way and is worried about CMC splitting with Mitchell. But I agree with you--CMC's floor is extremely high even if he is splitting. I also see chatter about CMC's injury risk..Yes, sure. But him splitting actually reduces his injury risk...esp above the risk Cook and Barkely have with their workloads, esp Barkely who is a huge injury risk as much contact as he is. I mean last week he was hit over 40 times. 

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1 minute ago, bfros said:

exactly. this.  This is why I'd try to trade to get CMC and hope the CMC owner doesn't see it this way and is worried about CMC splitting with Mitchell. But I agree with you--CMC's floor is extremely high even if he is splitting. I also see chatter about CMC's injury risk..Yes, sure. But him splitting actually reduces his injury risk...esp above the risk Cook and Barkely have with their workloads, esp Barkely who is a huge injury risk as much contact as he is. I mean last week he was hit over 40 times. 

So are you ever going to share the update whether the CMC owner in your league sees it the same way, i.e. did you offer cook and did he accept?

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3 minutes ago, jrokh said:

So are you ever going to share the update whether the CMC owner in your league sees it the same way, i.e. did you offer cook and did he accept?

Yes I will, bro. I put the offer out two days ago and the owner has not accepted or declined it. He is thinking it over. I'll update. I expect him to reject it but it's telling that he's been thinking it over for 2 days now. 

Moral of the story---if you have a top 5'ish RB and you want to try to get CMC I think it's possible in some leagues. Try it. even if only 25% of the offers are successful, that's good. 

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2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Sure, you can look at it that way if you want a muted sample size instead of a full body of work.  Cook & McCaffrey entered the league in 2017 and Barkley in 2018.  We're talking about 3 guys who've been in the league for roughly the same amount of time.  It's not like we're comparing Aaron Rodgers & Joe Burrow where there's something like a 15 year gap.

“Muted sample size”? :blink:

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2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Sure, you can look at it that way if you want a muted sample size instead of a full body of work.  Cook & McCaffrey entered the league in 2017 and Barkley in 2018.  We're talking about 3 guys who've been in the league for roughly the same amount of time.  It's not like we're comparing Aaron Rodgers & Joe Burrow where there's something like a 15 year gap.

It’s just more updated.  

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

It’s just more updated.  

Well if we're going by more updated, why use 3 years?  Just use 3 weeks.  In .5PPR, McCaffrey is averaging 26.0 fpw while Cook is at 19.1 and Barkley at 18.1.

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Because we where talking about injuries.  

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22 hours ago, weepaws said:

Because we where talking about injuries.  

All 3 have been healthy the last 3 weeks.  McCaffrey's been more productive. :dunno:

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On 11/16/2022 at 2:55 PM, TBayXXXVII said:

If I had Barkley or Cook, I'd trade either one for McCaffrey.

Right now, Barkley is averaging almost 26 touches per game.  The last time he averaged that many and stayed healthy, was never.  His rookie season, he averaged 22 touches a game.  After that, he played in 13 (averaging 20.7 touches), 2, and 13 (15.6 touches), games.  His usage is on a collision course for an injury.  He's on pace for 428 total touches.  Sell high.  You might even get something more.

Cook has never played a full season in his 5 years.  He's played every game this year.  Odds are he misses 2 or 3.  The longer he goes without getting hurt, the more likely misses games in December, which is bad for fantasy football'ers.

I'm perfectly happy, and excited if McCaffrey only gets 12 carries a game because he's probably going to get 5 to 8 receptions.  He's also going to get the goal line work.  I'll take 12 carries for 50 yards and 7 receptions for 60 yards and be fine with 14.5 (.5 PPR), every week know he's going to get at least 1 TD... and that's being conservative.  Last week was a "bad" week for McCaffrey and in .5 PRR leagues, he score 15.7 points.  On average, that qualifies as RB8.  Yeah, I'll take McCaffrey.  To note, McCaffrey's bad week (15.7 point), is higher than what Cook is averaging right now in 9 games (15.4). 

Right now, RB12 in .5 PPR leagues is averaging 14.2 fpg.  Dalvin Cook has failed to hit that number in 5 of 9 games.  

So yeah, I'll take McCaffrey over both.

 

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

All 3 have been healthy the last 3 weeks.  McCaffrey's been more productive. :dunno:

Found it interesting that you failed to mention Mccaffery when talking about past injury histories. 

And their last three games  they have all been healthy and productive. 

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Half ppr their last three games. 

Mccaffery 52 points , D Cook 56, Barkely 50.  

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11 minutes ago, weepaws said:

 

Found it interesting that you failed to mention Mccaffery when talking about past injury histories. 

And their last three games  they have all been healthy and productive. 

McCaffrey has played in 3 FULL seasons.  As I mentioned here, Cook and Barkley have combined for 1.  Based on that, the odds of McCaffrey playing a full season are better than both Cook and Barkely.

Yes, they have been, and McCaffrey has easily been a lot more productive.

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2 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Half ppr their last three games. 

Mccaffery 52 points , D Cook 56, Barkely 50.  

McCaffrey 2 games (1 bye), Cook and Barkley 3 games.

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2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

McCaffrey has played in 3 FULL seasons.  As I mentioned here, Cook and Barkley have combined for 1.  Based on that, the odds of McCaffrey playing a full season are better than both Cook and Barkely.

Yes, they have been, and McCaffrey has easily been a lot more productive.

 

On 11/17/2022 at 6:36 AM, weepaws said:

2020-today. Cook has played in 36 games , Barkley 24 games , Mccaffery 18, Mccaffery appears to be the one I would be more concern about.  

And that shows how many games they have played in since 2020, so staying healthy since 2020 has been a bigger problem for Mccaffery, and those games played in since 2020 show that.  

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2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

McCaffrey 2 games (1 bye), Cook and Barkley 3 games.

Gmen and Niners had the same bye week. 

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Half ppr their last three games. 

Mccaffery 52 points , D Cook 56, Barkely 50.  

Those points are based on their last three games. 

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