The Final All-Out Blitzes of the season ...

[The Football Guru 211]

I would like to use my final three columns of the season to answer your start/sit questions for the fantasy playoffs. Please ask them below or tweet me @DougOrth.

All I ask is that you include anything that would help me sway my decision one way or the other, especially if there is an unusual scoring setup.

[gcmmidwest 98]

Chubb or Dobbins 

???

Chubb looked sluggish last game and jury is still out on Dobbins 

[Nomad99 406]

Win to get in 1/2 ppr , 2pt bonus for 40+rd rush, 40+yd rush td, 40+yd reception,  40+yd rec td.....so any 40yd td is a 4pt bonus.

Starting Chase, Allen, Jeudy 

A.jones & Etienne 

Have 2 flex spots to fill...wr/te & wr/rb

On bench: Kirk, DJ.Moore, Nico Collins

Jwill, Mostert,  Gus Edwards 

Which two to flex?

Thanks 

[The Football Guru 211]

16 hours ago, Nomad99 said:

Win to get in 1/2 ppr , 2pt bonus for 40+rd rush, 40+yd rush td, 40+yd reception,  40+yd rec td.....so any 40yd td is a 4pt bonus.

 Starting Chase, Allen, Jeudy 

A.jones & Etienne 

Have 2 flex spots to fill...wr/te & wr/rb

On bench: Kirk, DJ.Moore, Nico Collins

Jwill, Mostert,  Gus Edwards 

Which two to flex?

Thanks 

Just making sure I'm not missing anything and picking two of these six (Kirk, DJ.Moore, Nico Collins, Jwill, Mostert, Gus Edwards)

[rallo 132]

Etienne, Juju, or Mike Williams in .5 PPR (2pt bonus for eclipsing 100yds rush or rec)

[Nomad99 406]

13 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

Just making sure I'm not missing anything and picking two of these six (Kirk, DJ.Moore, Nico Collins, Jwill, Mostert, Gus Edwards)

Yessir 

[polecatt 402]

Couple of questions...

I'm set at WR with J Jefferson and CeeDee, my flex spot though, who should I start?   C Olave or C Godwin

Then at RB, I'm set with Kenneth Walker as my RB1, but my 2nd RB, I"m stuck between Jamaal Williams, I Pacheco, and Cordarrelle Patterson

 

Scoring- PPR, 1 pt 20 yds rush/rec, 6 pt bonus at 100 yds rush/rec, 6 pt TDs, 3 pt bonus for a TD play 40-49 yds, 6 pts bonus for TD play 50+ yds

Thanks!

[The Football Guru 211]

3 hours ago, Nomad99 said:

Yessir 

Excellent.

[easilyscan 558]

Full PPR - WR/TE Flex

Currently have Christian Kirk in. Weeks 13-14-15 were great matchups for him. He did well in the middle game (Lions) but the other 2 were dominated by Evan Engram and/or Zay Jones.

12

Bal (5th)    4-46-0

13

@Det (2nd)  6-104-0

14

@Ten (3rd)   5-45-0

The Jaguars face the Cowboys at home this week. I'm toying with the idea of starting Donovan Peoples-Jones in his place. (@ home vs the Ravens)

Jones is also the full-time punt return guy for the Browns. My league rewards return yards & TD's. (one point per 10 yards & 6 for td's) he has 216 yards and one TD on the year.

Thanks in advance.

 

 

 

[DrG 94]

PPR playoff rb stash?

Doug, first off, thank you for your boards, articles and rookie reviews. Great reading and always the foundation to my ff prep.

Who would you stash of these players in a deep bench league at RB? Mack, Carter, Hasty or Gainwell? Have the first two, but the last 2 would be productive with opportunity.I have Barkley/Breida, Jacob’s, Singletary and CPatt. Holding both Taysom Hill and Mattison. Bye week here let’s me see how the Falcon qb change affects that backfield. As always, thanks!

[Nomad99 406]

59 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

Excellent.

And?

[The Football Guru 211]

4 hours ago, Nomad99 said:

And?

I have 800-plus words ready to break down your situation. It will be ready tomorrow afternoon, if not earlier. 

[weepaws 2,459]

Hello Mr Football Guru, thank you so much for taking time to help. 

PPR 14 team I need a flex play, M Evans, D Swift, J Williams, McKinnon.  

Thank you very much. 

[Bills04 45]

Inquiry #1:  

I'm in a full-point PPR.  I'm currently FLEXing KC RB I. Pacheco.  I researched teams vs. HOU this year, and the only sub-par week a RB had against them was .. MIA.  Tua picked apart HOU's zone defense.  Also: R. Mostert was OUT that game, and J. Wilson cramped up, and missed time (but returned).

 

So .. I just researched Mahomes' career stats vs. HOU.  Uh, oh.  In one game KC scored 34 points, with 21 being through the air.  In another game KC scored 51 (!) points, with 35 being through the air.  In the other one, KC scored 24 points, with 21 being through the air.

 

What do KC peeps / fans think about this upcoming game?  I keep hearing the MVP race is between Mahomes and PHI QB.  Could Reid / Mahomes still "sling it," even though the stats say pound the rock?  in the FF playoffs, I really need Pacheco to score at least one rushing TD..

[Bills04 45]

Inquiry #2:  

Full-point PPR.  RB1 is Henry.  WR1 is K. Allen.  WR2 is McLaurin.  I currently have NYG RB Barkley as my RB2, who has a tough matchup @ WAS.  And, I'm FLEXing KC RB Pacheco against the worst run def in the league, Houston.  Thing is: WAS has a top-5 run DEF.  And, with the state of the NYG passing game, I'm sure WAS will play the run and force NYG to throw..

 

So, I'm considering changing my RB2 to Pacheco.  Viable FLEX options then change to: JAX WR Z. Jones vs. DAL, or ATL RB C. Patterson @ NO.  ATL will be rolling out D. Ridder for his first start, on the road, vs. a Top-12 run defense.  So, I'm leaning towards Z. Jones as another FLEX option.

[Bills04 45]

Inquiry #3:

Per the FF Today Shot Caller Report:

 

Yay:  

Mike White vs DET

After getting nearly beaten to death in a loss to the Bills, White looks to be ready to roll against the surging Lions. While the Lions have made a marked improvement since their bye week, their secondary has a tough time holding up, as they’ve yielded the 6th most passing yards in the league over the last three games. The volume should be there, as the Jets have the 3rd most pass attempts since White has become the starter.

 

Nay:

Tua Tagovailoa @ BUF (SAT)

Two rough weeks against some of the league’s top defenses have left this Miami offense reeling. Now Tua has to hit the road against a division rival in the incredibly hostile environment of Orchard Park in December. Miami hasn’t been able to muster anything on the ground since losing two starters on the line, and the weather, and an angry Buffalo defense might be too much to overcome.

Jared Goff @ NY Jets

Goff has enjoyed a resurgent season, as the Lions have climbed out of a 1-6 start, to a team in control of their playoff destiny. Despite a stalwart offensive line, the Lions haven’t faced a defense as strong as the Jets all season. Few teams clamp down on the passing game like Gang Green as they’ve yielded less than 200 yards passing a game at home this season. The Meadowlands will be colder and more hostile than Detroit’s trip there a few weeks ago and Goff has been miserable in cold weather in his career.

 

Per *my* spreadsheet: it also points to starting NYJ QB.  Tua the past two @ BUF: 215/1/1; 389/1/3 INTs.  Goff vs. NYJ: 218/2/1.  Also, using Pts Scored / Allowed Rankings (total #; lower is better) White = 27, Tua = 33, and Goff = 40.

 

Dare I play M. White in the playoffs??  What say you?

[Mike FF Today 607]

OK guys, article is posted for Week 15. Playoff Week 1 Q&A.

[weepaws 2,459]

Great job. 

[The Football Guru 211]

20 hours ago, polecatt said:

Couple of questions...

I'm set at WR with J Jefferson and CeeDee, my flex spot though, who should I start?   C Olave or C Godwin

Then at RB, I'm set with Kenneth Walker as my RB1, but my 2nd RB, I"m stuck between Jamaal Williams, I Pacheco, and Cordarrelle Patterson

 

Scoring- PPR, 1 pt 20 yds rush/rec, 6 pt bonus at 100 yds rush/rec, 6 pt TDs, 3 pt bonus for a TD play 40-49 yds, 6 pts bonus for TD play 50+ yds

Thanks!

I would lean Godwin over Olave.

At RB, I am not so sure I would consider Walker a lock this week. I think he is a candidate for a 5-6 point game. As risky as it might be, I could see myself going with Williams and Pacheco over him.

[The Football Guru 211]

19 hours ago, easilyscan said:

Full PPR - WR/TE Flex

Currently have Christian Kirk in. Weeks 13-14-15 were great matchups for him. He did well in the middle game (Lions) but the other 2 were dominated by Evan Engram and/or Zay Jones.

12

Bal (5th)    4-46-0

13

@Det (2nd)  6-104-0

14

@Ten (3rd)   5-45-0

The Jaguars face the Cowboys at home this week. I'm toying with the idea of starting Donovan Peoples-Jones in his place. (@ home vs the Ravens)

Jones is also the full-time punt return guy for the Browns. My league rewards return yards & TD's. (one point per 10 yards & 6 for td's) he has 216 yards and one TD on the year.

Thanks in advance.

 

 

 

I could see starting DPJ over Kirk given your league's settings. I do think this is a bounce-back game for Kirk though. I would rather start him.

[The Football Guru 211]

18 hours ago, DrG said:

PPR playoff rb stash?

Doug, first off, thank you for your boards, articles and rookie reviews. Great reading and always the foundation to my ff prep.

Who would you stash of these players in a deep bench league at RB? Mack, Carter, Hasty or Gainwell? Have the first two, but the last 2 would be productive with opportunity.I have Barkley/Breida, Jacob’s, Singletary and CPatt. Holding both Taysom Hill and Mattison. Bye week here let’s me see how the Falcon qb change affects that backfield. As always, thanks!

My pleasure.

I would rank the RBs ROS like this: Carter, Hasty, Gainwell and Mack.

I believe Ridder has a bigger arm than Mariota, so it would not surprise me if the Falcons have more success throwing downfield. I don't think Atlanta wants to run Ridder as much as Mariota, so it would not surprise me if the RBs get a few more carries each week. With that said, HC Arthur Smith has stuck to a RBBC all season, so I'm not sure I believe Patterson (or any other Atlanta RB) will be better than a flex play the rest of the way.

[The Football Guru 211]

13 hours ago, weepaws said:

Hello Mr Football Guru, thank you so much for taking time to help. 

PPR 14 team I need a flex play, M Evans, D Swift, J Williams, McKinnon.  

Thank you very much. 

I guess I am a glutton for punishment or maybe I am just more of a fan boy than I realize ... Swift being off the injury report completely this week makes me think he gets about 15 touches again. I know it is a risk. Then again, so are playing the other three. Mike Evans has not scored since Week 3 and hit double figures only three times in the last two months. Williams is touchdown-or-bust and McKinnon is a passing-down back in what should be a more run-heavy game for KC than usual.

[easilyscan 558]

1 hour ago, The Football Guru said:

I could see starting DPJ over Kirk given your league's settings. I do think this is a bounce-back game for Kirk though. I would rather start him.

Thank You.

[The Football Guru 211]

7 hours ago, Bills04 said:

Inquiry #1:  

I'm in a full-point PPR.  I'm currently FLEXing KC RB I. Pacheco.  I researched teams vs. HOU this year, and the only sub-par week a RB had against them was .. MIA.  Tua picked apart HOU's zone defense.  Also: R. Mostert was OUT that game, and J. Wilson cramped up, and missed time (but returned).

 

So .. I just researched Mahomes' career stats vs. HOU.  Uh, oh.  In one game KC scored 34 points, with 21 being through the air.  In another game KC scored 51 (!) points, with 35 being through the air.  In the other one, KC scored 24 points, with 21 being through the air.

 

What do KC peeps / fans think about this upcoming game?  I keep hearing the MVP race is between Mahomes and PHI QB.  Could Reid / Mahomes still "sling it," even though the stats say pound the rock?  in the FF playoffs, I really need Pacheco to score at least one rushing TD..

One quote that I remember from Andy Reid years ago is that he has to remind himself to run the ball every so often (paraphrasing, of course). I do not think there is any question KC continues to pass because I don't think the Chiefs have much interest in taking the ball out of Mahomes' hands or going ground-and-pound, at least not very often. Houston has been better against the run in recent weeks, but I would lean slightly more toward Pacheco scoring a touchdown this week than not.

[The Football Guru 211]

7 hours ago, Bills04 said:

Inquiry #2:  

Full-point PPR.  RB1 is Henry.  WR1 is K. Allen.  WR2 is McLaurin.  I currently have NYG RB Barkley as my RB2, who has a tough matchup @ WAS.  And, I'm FLEXing KC RB Pacheco against the worst run def in the league, Houston.  Thing is: WAS has a top-5 run DEF.  And, with the state of the NYG passing game, I'm sure WAS will play the run and force NYG to throw..

 

So, I'm considering changing my RB2 to Pacheco.  Viable FLEX options then change to: JAX WR Z. Jones vs. DAL, or ATL RB C. Patterson @ NO.  ATL will be rolling out D. Ridder for his first start, on the road, vs. a Top-12 run defense.  So, I'm leaning towards Z. Jones as another FLEX option.

I know I do not have the stones to play Pacheco over Barkley. You are essentially saying Pacheco is a lock for a touchdown and about 80 total yards. That is with little usage in the passing game and the expectation that KC does not overlook Houston as Dallas did.

I don't think I can play Patterson in the playoffs given how ATL has used him over the last two months. I'd be OK with flexing Pacheco over Jones, although I could easily see that being a wash.

[Nomad99 406]

15 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

I have 800-plus words ready to break down your situation. It will be ready tomorrow afternoon, if not earlier. 

Thank you sir! Great analysis  

[The Football Guru 211]

5 hours ago, Bills04 said:

Inquiry #3:

Per the FF Today Shot Caller Report:

 

Yay:  

Mike White vs DET

After getting nearly beaten to death in a loss to the Bills, White looks to be ready to roll against the surging Lions. While the Lions have made a marked improvement since their bye week, their secondary has a tough time holding up, as they’ve yielded the 6th most passing yards in the league over the last three games. The volume should be there, as the Jets have the 3rd most pass attempts since White has become the starter.

 

Nay:

Tua Tagovailoa @ BUF (SAT)

Two rough weeks against some of the league’s top defenses have left this Miami offense reeling. Now Tua has to hit the road against a division rival in the incredibly hostile environment of Orchard Park in December. Miami hasn’t been able to muster anything on the ground since losing two starters on the line, and the weather, and an angry Buffalo defense might be too much to overcome.

Jared Goff @ NY Jets

Goff has enjoyed a resurgent season, as the Lions have climbed out of a 1-6 start, to a team in control of their playoff destiny. Despite a stalwart offensive line, the Lions haven’t faced a defense as strong as the Jets all season. Few teams clamp down on the passing game like Gang Green as they’ve yielded less than 200 yards passing a game at home this season. The Meadowlands will be colder and more hostile than Detroit’s trip there a few weeks ago and Goff has been miserable in cold weather in his career.

 

Per *my* spreadsheet: it also points to starting NYJ QB.  Tua the past two @ BUF: 215/1/1; 389/1/3 INTs.  Goff vs. NYJ: 218/2/1.  Also, using Pts Scored / Allowed Rankings (total #; lower is better) White = 27, Tua = 33, and Goff = 40.

 

Dare I play M. White in the playoffs??  What say you?

I know I talked about starting Mike White in the first two rounds of the fantasy playoffs last week (I believe). That was before the shots to the ribs he took vs. the Bills.

With that said, I think he will need to pass a lot (again) for the Jets to win this week, as the Lions have been lights out against RBs during their recent surge. I don't like Goff in the cold or on the road and I don't like him trying to throw for two scores against Sauce Gardner or DJ Reed. Tua is also going to be playing in the cold and may not have a healthy Tyreek Hill to throw to.

I would reluctantly roll with Mike White.

[Bills04 45]

Thank for the responseS, Guru!  

[taco breath 419]

godwin.wr.tb v cin

or

olave.wr.no v atl

[weepaws 2,459]

2 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

I guess I am a glutton for punishment or maybe I am just more of a fan boy than I realize ... Swift being off the injury report completely this week makes me think he gets about 15 touches again. I know it is a risk. Then again, so are playing the other three. Mike Evans has not scored since Week 3 and hit double figures only three times in the last two months. Williams is touchdown-or-bust and McKinnon is a passing-down back in what should be a more run-heavy game for KC than usual.

Awesome thank you. 

[The Football Guru 211]

56 minutes ago, taco breath said:

godwin.wr.tb v cin

or

olave.wr.no v atl

Godwin for me.

[SaintsInDome2006 128]

On 12/13/2022 at 4:13 AM, The Football Guru said:

I would like to use my final three columns of the season to answer your start/sit questions for the fantasy playoffs. Please ask them below or tweet me @DougOrth.

All I ask is that you include anything that would help me sway my decision one way or the other, especially if there is an unusual scoring setup.

Long time reader, love your work, sir. - I have a bye and this is what I am dealing with:

• DST - week 16 - TB @ ARI,  or Ten Vs Hou, or Den @ Rams, or CLE vs NO, or LAC @ IND, or DET @ Car.
• DST - week 17 - DAL @ Ten (should be very cold I'd think), TB Vs Car, Det Vs Chi, ARI @ ATL, GB vs MIN, MIN @ GB, LAC Vs Rams, Jax @ Hou.
• RB2 - for weeks 16-17, to go with Barkley (help), for RB2 I need to pick 2 of Mostert, James Cook and McKinnon. (I will drop one for one of the week 17 defenses).

[taco breath 419]

how many snaps will taysom hill take at qb this week?

Saints are fresh off a retooling, bye week and have no playoff hopes.

why not?  

[AxeElf 787]

49 minutes ago, taco breath said:

how many snaps will taysom hill take at qb this week?

 

[gcmmidwest 98]

3 hours ago, taco breath said:

how many snaps will taysom hill take at qb this week?

Saints are fresh off a retooling, bye week and have no playoff hopes.

why not?  

That's like asking how many penalties will the saints have ...dumb question 

[IMMensaMind 459]

On 12/13/2022 at 4:13 AM, The Football Guru said:

I would like to use my final three columns of the season to answer your start/sit questions for the fantasy playoffs. Please ask them below or tweet me @DougOrth.

All I ask is that you include anything that would help me sway my decision one way or the other, especially if there is an unusual scoring setup.

I have a FLEX question, since losing Jeff Wilson. I have to choose from Lazard, Elijah Moore or Jameson Williams (could have played Mason or J. Cook, but don't feel as comfy with either). PPR league.

[weepaws 2,459]

12 team half ppr.  

Flex slot, Swift, Dobbins, R White, Godwin. 

Thank you.  

[taco breath 419]

how many penalties with the saints have?

[The Football Guru 211]

On 12/15/2022 at 6:11 PM, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Long time reader, love your work, sir. - I have a bye and this is what I am dealing with:

• DST - week 16 - TB @ ARI,  or Ten Vs Hou, or Den @ Rams, or CLE vs NO, or LAC @ IND, or DET @ Car.
• DST - week 17 - DAL @ Ten (should be very cold I'd think), TB Vs Car, Det Vs Chi, ARI @ ATL, GB vs MIN, MIN @ GB, LAC Vs Rams, Jax @ Hou.
• RB2 - for weeks 16-17, to go with Barkley (help), for RB2 I need to pick 2 of Mostert, James Cook and McKinnon. (I will drop one for one of the week 17 defenses).

Thanks Saints. Nice job on the bye.

Week 16 - It sure feels like HOU is going into full tank mode. I would lean toward TEN there.

Week 17 - If you have Dallas, I would play the Cowboys. I think I would target HOU again otherwise and go with the Jags. A lot could change between now and then though.

RB2 - I could see McKinnon having the most value over the two-week stretch. SEA-KC could light up the scoreboard, so it wouldn't surprise me if he saw a lot of work in the passing game. While I certainly don't expect a repeat of last week in Week 17, McKinnon did just put two TDs on Denver.

[The Football Guru 211]

On 12/15/2022 at 6:57 PM, taco breath said:

how many snaps will taysom hill take at qb this week?

Saints are fresh off a retooling, bye week and have no playoff hopes.

why not?  

There seems to be a big push for Kamara this week in the fantasy community. While I get it - Dennis Allen said NO needs to get AK the ball more - do we believe it took 14 weeks for him to figure that out? I think Hill sees as much work as he has in a while as the de facto backup to Kamara.

Hill has logged 24-28 offensive snaps in each of the last three weeks. I'd be surprised if that number goes down this week.