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The Football Guru

Week 16 All-Out Blitz ...

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As you likely remember from last week:

I would like to use my final two columns of the season to answer your start/sit questions for the fantasy playoffs. Please ask them below or tweet me @DougOrth.

All I ask is that you include anything that would help me sway my decision one way or the other, especially if there is an unusual scoring setup.

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In a 1 ppr, 1 pt per 10 yards, 6 pts per touchdown, 40+ yard long receiving bonus of 2 points, 100+ receiving yards game bonus of 3 points, 

(starting: Tyreek Hill, DeAndre Hopkins, Tee Higgins) 

I need to start 1 more WR of the following: 

Christian Watson @ Miami Dolphins 

DJ Moore vs Detroit Lions 

Chris Olave @ Cleveland Browns 

Brandon Aiyuk vs Washington Redskins 

Treylon Burks vs Houston Texans 

Thank you! 

 

 

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Okay, I'm in the semifinals this week, dynasty league, got two of the hottest young QBs in the NFL.

Justin Herbert @ Indy on Monday night

Trevor Lawrence @ NYJ on Thursday night

Scoring-  

All TDs 6 pts, 3 pts for 40+ yd TD bonus, 6 pts for 50+ yd TD bonus

1 pt per 50 yds passing, 6 pts bonus at 300 yds, another 3 pts at 400 yds

I've had Herbert in my starting line up pretty much since his 2nd game as a pro but he's struggled this year. Trevor has blown up in recent weeks. I'm leaning towards him, even though it's not a great match up and the Jags have a Thursday game.

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Pick 2 flex & wr ppr  Aiyuk, jk Dobbins,mc laurin,C.Watson,  dillon, boyd,D. Foreman & Allgeier ...leaning towards Watson & McLaurin but like last week Dobbins keeps entering my head 

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Alright Guru, let's earn that paycheck. Half PPR at the RB2 and flex I need 2 (at least 1 RB) of Joe Mixon @NE, 

Najee v LV, 

Godwin @Arizona,

 Ettiene Thursday night @NYJ, and I guess Jeudy @Rams.

Right now, leaning Mixon and Najee. What say you? TIA...

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Inquiry 1: I have KC DEF at home vs. a Seattle team missing its WR2 T. Lockett.  BUT - KC DEF was a huge letdown last week, vs. HOU..  I analyzed WW team DEF's matchups, and I'm debating picking up: a) LAC @ IND, or b) JAX @ NYJ.  I'm leaning towards LAC DEF .. but their DTs have been decimated by injuries..  Also, still no Joey Bosa.  Thoughts?

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Inquiry 2: I have LVR KCR Carlson, who's been great.  BUT - this week LVR is @ PIT, which has a forecast of 19MPH winds..  So, again, I analyzed WW kicker matchups, and I'm debating picking up: a) LAC KCR @ IND, b) MIN KCR vs. NYG or c) MIA KCR vs. GB.  I'm leaning towards LAC KCR .. but I'm worried about "strength vs. strength."  LAC throws it a ton, and IND's secondary is very good.  Thoughts?

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Ugh...struggle bus with decisions this week:

All tds 6 points. Standard league with bonuses for over 100 receiving/rushing, 300+ passing yards, and long tds. 

  1. Geno or Cousins 
  2. Dobbins, Foreman, Swift, or Allgeier at RB2
  3. Pittman, Christian Watson or any of the RBs left above for flex. 
  4. Eagles or Broncos Def. 

Pick and choose as you see fit. I know it is a lot. 

 

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Not sure if you advise on defense/special-teams ?

Baltimore @ home vs Atlanta or Cleveland @ home vs New Orleans

Thanks in advance. 

Defense/Special Teams League Value Yahoo Default Value
Sack 1  
Interception 2  
Fumble Recovery 2  
Touchdown 6  
Safety 2  
Block Kick 2  
Points Allowed 0 points
Yahoo Default
30 10
Points Allowed 1-6 points
Yahoo Default
25 7
Points Allowed 7-13 points
Yahoo Default
20 4
Points Allowed 14-20 points
Yahoo Default
10 1
Points Allowed 21-27 points
Yahoo Default
5 0
Points Allowed 28-34 points -1  
Points Allowed 35+ points -4  
Extra Point Returned 2

 

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Dr. Guru:

In full-PPR, I have to sit 1 of these 7.  Have put this up over on 'A Little Help,' and the small-sample of feedback is to leave out either Dobbins or Watson.  For myself, I'm leaning toward sitting Hopkins...re: the QB situation there,  AZ having no shot at the playoffs, and a game I think may be low-scoring.  How do you see it?  Is there an particularly awful RB/WR matchup here (vs. a team defense/lineman/edge/db/safety/etc.) that I'm overlooking?  Who is the odd man out?  Thanks very much.

Barkley; @ Vikings

Pollard; at home vs. Philly

Dobbins; at home vs. Atlanta

AJ Brown; @ Cowboys

Hopkins; at home vs. Tampa Bay

Mike Williams; @ Colts

C. Watson; @ Miami

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In full PPR, assuming I am starting Diggs and St Brown, would you take Pittman or gamble on Zay Jones in a tougher matchup?

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PPR TE start Goedert Everett or Engram? Always leery of a player’s first game back from injury. 
 

Doug Moss or DJax? Thanks.

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PPR.  I need a rb2/wr2 and a flex.   

Z Jones, DPJ, Mixon, McKinnon, M Evans.  

Thank you.  

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Half ppr.  I need a wr2.  Godwin, Hopkins, Z Jones.  

Thank you.  

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Sorry but I have one more.  PPR.   Wr2.  M Evans or C Watson.  

Thank you.  

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14 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

Zack Moss or Deon Jackson, correct?

Doug yes.

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On 12/21/2022 at 3:32 AM, weepaws said:

PPR.  I need a rb2/wr2 and a flex.   

Z Jones, DPJ, Mixon, McKinnon, M Evans.  

Thank you.  

I really think McKinnon is primed to disappoint in the near future, but Zay (matchup) and DPJ (weather) aren't worth starting over him. I also would not count on Evans scoring for the first time since Week 4 just b/c he has a good matchup. He's had a few during his scoreless streak. So McKinnon by default.

 

On 12/21/2022 at 3:43 AM, weepaws said:

Half ppr.  I need a wr2.  Godwin, Hopkins, Z Jones.  

Thank you.  

Godwin

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On 12/20/2022 at 9:26 PM, ZeroTolerance said:

In full PPR, assuming I am starting Diggs and St Brown, would you take Pittman or gamble on Zay Jones in a tougher matchup?

Pittman

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2 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

Watson.

 

2 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

I really think McKinnon is primed to disappoint in the near future, but Zay (matchup) and DPJ (weather) aren't worth starting over him. I also would not count on Evans scoring for the first time since Week 4 just b/c he has a good matchup. He's had a few during his scoreless streak. So McKinnon by default.

 

Godwin

Thank you. 

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1/2 pt PPR, 6 points all TD's

TE: Engram or Goedert 

QB: Dak or Cousins

RB2: If Walker sits, Patterson, Allgeier or James Cook

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That was fun to read.  Great job Guru.  

Merry Christmas.  

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Good stuff guys! Happy Holidays, and may this crazy weather not blow all the good fantasy advice to smithereens...

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That was enjoyable to read and very helpful. Thanks Doug.  I'll go with Christian Watson as my WR4 per your advice and who I prefer as well. 

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1 hour ago, gcmmidwest said:

Doug & Mike Thank you.  .wow nice write up (class act) merry Christmas 

Thank you and Merry Christmas Gentlemen! Gonna roll w Engram and sit the Indy backs.

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My question was on defense for week 16. Cleveland at home versus the Saints, or Baltimore at home versus the Falcons.

By the narrowest of margins, you chose the Ravens. Jarvis Landry was placed on IR today & Chris Olave is going to be inactive.

Would that be enough to change your mind ? 

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Thank you for suggesting to sit Trevor Lawrence!

He only got 12 pts.

Herbert should get more than that, and if he doesn't, it just means I was F'ed either way 😃

 

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Hey there,

 

 I’m in a bit of a jam in a league I started this year. 4 team playoff this week and next. I have 2 wr 2 rb 2 flex. 12 team league. 

I think I’ve settled on Diggs, Mike Williams, and Davonte smith as WRs. 

For RBs I have Henry, McKinnon, Pacheco, walker 3, and jamaal Williams. Thinking that Henry, McKinnon, and walker is the safe play. 

Full point PPR league. What do you think?

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