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wolves111

What Round to Draft QB

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It’s been discussed ad nausea since weepaws began beating the drum for discounting drafting QBs. He always references the pts per week average compared to the early round selections like Allen.

Thats fine in a vacuum but we learned the past few weeks that QB production is not binary. The skill players that surround them are directly affected by their results.

D. Adams and J Jacobs in week 16 ruined many a playoff run. J Jefferson yesterday and S Barkley as well did the same. Why? Because Cousins Carr and Jones killed their production. Trusting your fortunes to a double digit round pick or streaming the position makes little sense. Mahomes Allen Burrow and Hurts pre injury are clearly worth the early round investment. You need to look past their individual stats and the stats of the players they affect.

Not to deliberately pick on weepaws but his t/e philosophy is just as bad. Travis Kelce scored 100 pts more than the nearest t/e but weepaws would have you draft a scub in the 11th round.

Draft players that are the best at their positions. Or the next to the best.

Stop listening to the nerds.

 

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18 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

D. Adams and J Jacobs in week 16 ruined many a playoff run. J Jefferson yesterday and S Barkley as well did the same. Why? Because Cousins Carr and Jones killed their production.

Not to defend the moron weepaws in any way shape or form, but this is just as dumb as anything he's ever said.

Stidham played as well or better than Carr has.  Jefferson became the #1 PPR WR over the course of the season with the same Cousins at QB.  Daniel Jones had a 30 point day yesterday; he was no anchor to his offense.

Players just have bad days sometimes.  It sucks when it's at a time that you need them, but it happens--and blaming it on the QB, especially when it's the same QB they had on their best days, is just ridiculous.

And this year was no different from any other year--5 QBs who will give you 20+ pts per week, and then the next 12 QBs who will give you 16-19 pts per week.  If you think you can make up those 5 points per week by drafting your RB2, WR1, WR2 and WR3 each one round earlier, then yes, it's better to wait on a QB.

Gotta admit, though; I'm tempted to go Mahomes/Henry/Jefferson/Kelce in an auction next year and then just fill in the rest of the team with dollar players and free agents.  My Mahomes/Henry/Jefferson team was pretty much unstoppable all year anyway; throw in Kelce and it would have been game over.  But the team would be less susceptible to injuries and clunkers if I spent those QB and TE dollars on better depth at the skill positions, so there's definitely a risk-reward ratio to be considered whichever way you go.

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Same good advice for next season, Draft Qbs and TEs in the double digit rounds, but don’t forget what’s equally important, stream, than when you pick up a winner , like Geno Smith keep him.  

Thanks.  

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Not defending the weepawd but I think a lot depends on your draft position and what the draft  gives you 

It's miserable clogging up your bench with mediocre qb's & te's wasting a spot for a potential starter ...as crazy as it sounds autopilot plays out alot  like money ball (movie)

I think a good qb and wr's have  have taken over ff every other position is just to hit or miss 

 

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Depends on the scoring system and number of QBs that must be started...

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1 hour ago, posty said:

Depends on the scoring system and number of QBs that must be started...

this is true.

in a 2 QB league waiting to draft a QB is something you should never do.

in a 1 QB league (especially 10 team or less) there is some value to waiting on a QB.   if taking one early they need to be a top 3 QB or you have hurt your team.

so if taking a QB early, you better nail the pick.

but I have seen plenty of cases where QB's taken late were just fine.   naturally it really depends on how the draft goes too.

I dont believe in planning to take a RB in round 1 a WR in round 2.........I believe in drafting where the value is.   

if you are drafting at 9 overall and the first 8 picks are all RB, chances are good that a RB at this point isnt necessarily your best call unless a really good one somehow slipped through the cracks.

so if no QB's go in the first 2 rounds,  you should at least think about taking one in round 3 if that situation remains in place when your third round pick comes up.

I'm not saying take one.  I'm saying think about it.

there are a million factors to consider, but relative player scarcity is likely the most important one to consider.

this is why you take QB early and often in  any league where you can start 2 QB. 

 

 

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Of the top ten qbs based on total points, 5-10 those six qbs were a double digit round draft pick, or they didn’t get drafted at all like ff mvp Geno Smith.  

If one doesn’t want to draft one of the other four top qbs , Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Burrow, and who really thought that Hurts was going to be in the top four, but if you pass on drafting one of those four qbs then when will you draft your Qb? 

Those four will probably be picked within the top four rounds, so rounds 5th-9th why waste a pick on a Murray or a Dak or a Rodgers or a Brady when one can wait until the double digit rounds to get a top ten Qb.  

And if that Qb one drafted in the double digit rounds doesn’t perform, drop him and stream until you find a winner, like ff mvp Geno Smith.

Thanks 

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8 hours ago, wolves111 said:

It’s been discussed ad nausea since weepaws began beating the drum for discounting drafting QBs. He always references the pts per week average compared to the early round selections like Allen.

Thats fine in a vacuum but we learned the past few weeks that QB production is not binary. The skill players that surround them are directly affected by their results.

D. Adams and J Jacobs in week 16 ruined many a playoff run. J Jefferson yesterday and S Barkley as well did the same. Why? Because Cousins Carr and Jones killed their production. Trusting your fortunes to a double digit round pick or streaming the position makes little sense. Mahomes Allen Burrow and Hurts pre injury are clearly worth the early round investment. You need to look past their individual stats and the stats of the players they affect.

Not to deliberately pick on weepaws but his t/e philosophy is just as bad. Travis Kelce scored 100 pts more than the nearest t/e but weepaws would have you draft a scub in the 11th round.

Draft players that are the best at their positions. Or the next to the best.

Stop listening to the nerds.

 

You really do like the ideal, you have two or three post about this issue every year, this is number one for 2023 two more to go. And no I don’t want to have anyone draft a Qb or a TE in the double digit rounds if you did there would be less stock at rb and wr for me the single digit rounds. 

Thanks 

 

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6 hours ago, gcmmidwest said:

Not defending the weepawd but I think a lot depends on your draft position and what the draft  gives you 

It's miserable clogging up your bench with mediocre qb's & te's wasting a spot for a potential starter ...as crazy as it sounds autopilot plays out alot  like money ball (movie)

I think a good qb and wr's have  have taken over ff every other position is just to hit or miss 

 

Did you send that 60$ or are going to punk out about paying up? 

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13 hours ago, Ray_T said:

this is true.

in a 2 QB league waiting to draft a QB is something you should never do.

in a 1 QB league (especially 10 team or less) there is some value to waiting on a QB.   if taking one early they need to be a top 3 QB or you have hurt your team.

so if taking a QB early, you better nail the pick.

but I have seen plenty of cases where QB's taken late were just fine.   naturally it really depends on how the draft goes too.

I dont believe in planning to take a RB in round 1 a WR in round 2.........I believe in drafting where the value is.   

if you are drafting at 9 overall and the first 8 picks are all RB, chances are good that a RB at this point isnt necessarily your best call unless a really good one somehow slipped through the cracks.

so if no QB's go in the first 2 rounds,  you should at least think about taking one in round 3 if that situation remains in place when your third round pick comes up.

I'm not saying take one.  I'm saying think about it.

there are a million factors to consider, but relative player scarcity is likely the most important one to consider.

this is why you take QB early and often in  any league where you can start 2 QB. 

 

 

And don't forget the scoring system as well...  That plays a huge role as well...

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