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Ray_T

cap implications 2023

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when I was looking at another thread it occurred to me that some teams will have a significant problem with cap next year.

spotrac suggests the Saints, the Bucs and the titans are in the worst cap trouble.   Saints and bucs are projected to be way over (like 50 M and 40 M respectively) and the Titans will be over by like 20 M.  so I would expect some big salary players to be traded or released due to cap reasons.    so the odds are good that these teams are headed in a downward direction unless the players they draft all work out in year 1 (unlikely)

Next are Green Bay and Jaxonville who are projected to be 14 M and 20 M over respectively

then the chargers, Rams, Phins and Browns and vikings are all projected to be in the 8-11M over the cap range.   Tight, but manageable.  most of these teams have one or two aging vets who are underperforming their contract who could be purged or replaced in the draft.

but this should give you an reasonable indicator of where these teams are going.

so if Brady wants full market value, I have serious doubts the Bucs can pay him.    and if they do, I dont know that they will have the talent around him to be successful because they will have to jettison a lot of talent to sign him.   its a bad situation.   I think Brady realizes this and he probably would rather go to a team where he is more likely to be successful.

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Will be interesting to see if the Chiefs are able to keep both the mvp and possible dpoy together on the same team for the next 3 or 4 years :ninja:

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well, the chiefs actually are projected to have 14M cap space rolling into next year.   one of the better teams in the NFL

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6 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

well, the chiefs actually are projected to have 14M cap space rolling into next year.   one of the better teams in the NFL

We're thinking of bringing in Jefferson and McCaffrey.

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

We're thinking of bringing in Jefferson and McCaffrey.

I like your thinking, but I have my doubts that 14 M will get that done.   you might be able to get one of them.  but not both.

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If Tampa is smart, they fire the entire staff, rework a few deals, bring in Carr, and make another run.  Otherwise, trade players like White, Donovan Smith, & Fournette.  Give Trask the starting job, and go 3-14.

That way they can finally clean house of the coaching staff and be in a spot to draft Caleb Williams with a new group who (hopefully), don't suck.

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1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

If Tampa is smart, they fire the entire staff, rework a few deals, bring in Carr, and make another run.  Otherwise, trade players like White, Donovan Smith, & Fournette.  Give Trask the starting job, and go 3-14.

That way they can finally clean house of the coaching staff and be in a spot to draft Caleb Williams with a new group who (hopefully), don't suck.

well, given how far over the cap they are, some hard decisions need to be made.

unloading Brady can help this situation and maybe a team out there would be willing to assume the rest of that contract but even that move may not be enough to fix the cap situation in Tampa.

it doesnt feel like Tampa will be a good place to be....

 

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1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

well, given how far over the cap they are, some hard decisions need to be made.

unloading Brady can help this situation and maybe a team out there would be willing to assume the rest of that contract but even that move may not be enough to fix the cap situation in Tampa.

it doesnt feel like Tampa will be a good place to be....

 

I have no doubt Brady is leaving.  There are guys who can be released or traded with an actual cap benefit...AND team benefit.  Not that the guys they would be cutting or trading are bad, but the drop off to the next person may either be negligible or a positive.

Tampa does have to pay the piper, no doubt, but a good coach and keeping the important players can still leave the team competitive while shedding debt.

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26 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I have no doubt Brady is leaving.  There are guys who can be released or traded with an actual cap benefit...AND team benefit.  Not that the guys they would be cutting or trading are bad, but the drop off to the next person may either be negligible or a positive.

Tampa does have to pay the piper, no doubt, but a good coach and keeping the important players can still leave the team competitive while shedding debt.

agreed.  and if you wanna shed some light on moves you think are likely to be made, I'd be very interested in monitoring this situation.

determining whether this is a competitive team next year (or not) can significantly affect who we choose to pick up in our draft from this team next year.

I know TBay had signficant injuries to the O line, so I expect the line wont be as big a weakness as it was last year.  but that wont solve the cap problem

if we know where players will be dropped and the cap monies saved we have a really good ideal of how competitive this team will be next year.

 

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Many of these teams have easy options, just cut a few aging under producing players with a post june 1 designation.

It means they cannot go after too many top free agents, but that is not too big of deal.

 

Titans:

Taylor Lewan - tore acl in 2 out of 3 seasons, no dead money and has 14.8 million in savings

zach cunningham - big free agent bust, post june 1 cut would give 11 million in savings with only 2 million in dead money.

 

With cutting just 2 guys that havent contributed they are under the cap. There are many other contracts to restructure, etc. 

 

I assume the saints have tons of players that can be cut, they will be in full rebuild mode, the bucs will probably have the most trouble if they want to compete, although you can always restructure players to kick the can down the road into the future.

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2 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

Many of these teams have easy options, just cut a few aging under producing players with a post june 1 designation.

It means they cannot go after too many top free agents, but that is not too big of deal.

 

agreed.  the ones over the cap by less than 10 mil can probably fix the situation by cutting one overpaid vet.

not too worried about them.

but the teams over the cap by substantially more than that have some serious problems.

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Just now, Ray_T said:

agreed.  the ones over the cap by less than 10 mil can probably fix the situation by cutting one overpaid vet.

not too worried about them.

but the teams over the cap by substantially more than that have some serious problems.

I edited my previous post with Titans.

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Average age is also interesting from that list

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3 hours ago, MTSkiBum said:

I assume the saints have tons of players that can be cut, they will be in full rebuild mode, the bucs will probably have the most trouble if they want to compete, although you can always restructure players to kick the can down the road into the future.

they can.   but whether they do it (or not) likely depends largely on what Brady does.

speaking of which, i've read conflicting reports on Brady's contract status.   is he a free agent?  or how much time does he have left under contract?

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On 1/17/2023 at 2:27 PM, Ray_T said:

agreed.  and if you wanna shed some light on moves you think are likely to be made, I'd be very interested in monitoring this situation.

determining whether this is a competitive team next year (or not) can significantly affect who we choose to pick up in our draft from this team next year.

I know TBay had signficant injuries to the O line, so I expect the line wont be as big a weakness as it was last year.  but that wont solve the cap problem

if we know where players will be dropped and the cap monies saved we have a really good ideal of how competitive this team will be next year.

 

It's my guess that they keep Bowles, which appears to be what they're doing (sadly), and that they'll part with some of the more expensive players, re-negotiate others and try kick the can down the road free up some money, then bring in a QB who can help them win now.  Carr is the best one to be bring in, whose name isn't Brady.  So, they won't bring him in (because they're idiots), because he'll probably be good.  My guess is that they try to bring in Geno Smith.  I think they're going to push the virtue signaling button a little more, and give him a 3-year deal.

They'll give him the job, even though he may not actually play better than Trask, and win like 6 or 7 games the next 2 years, then clean house and start over.  Trask will leave and go to a team and be a pretty solid QB and we'll draft another Vinny Testaverde / Trent Dilfer / Josh Freeman / Jameis Winston bust, go through 3 or 4 more coaches over the next 12 years and be what they were from 2008 to 2019.

Do you know that only 1 QB played for Tampa more than 6 consecutive seasons?  He was with the team for 8 straight seasons.  Bet you can't even name him.  Goes to show you what a clusterfock the organization has been regarding QB's.

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39 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

It's my guess that they keep Bowles, which appears to be what they're doing (sadly), and that they'll part with some of the more expensive players, re-negotiate others and try kick the can down the road free up some money, then bring in a QB who can help them win now.  Carr is the best one to be bring in, whose name isn't Brady.  So, they won't bring him in (because they're idiots), because he'll probably be good.  My guess is that they try to bring in Geno Smith.  I think they're going to push the virtue signaling button a little more, and give him a 3-year deal.

They'll give him the job, even though he may not actually play better than Trask, and win like 6 or 7 games the next 2 years, then clean house and start over.  Trask will leave and go to a team and be a pretty solid QB and we'll draft another Vinny Testaverde / Trent Dilfer / Josh Freeman / Jameis Winston bust, go through 3 or 4 more coaches over the next 12 years and be what they were from 2008 to 2019.

Do you know that only 1 QB played for Tampa more than 6 consecutive seasons?  He was with the team for 8 straight seasons.  Bet you can't even name him.  Goes to show you what a clusterfock the organization has been regarding QB's.

trent dilfer :dunno:

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Super Bowl winner.  

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