Lamar Jackson hints at Ravens drama in cryptic Instagram posts

[Sean Mooney 922]

3 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

well, the jones contract has complicated things.  guaranteed or not, he is not gonna want to get paid less than him.

ideally the fully guaranteed contract would be in the 35-38 mil range, but now that Jones has 40 mil (even though it is not fully guaranteed) I suspect Jackson wont be willing to take less than that even if fully guaranteed.

realistic ..... not really but thats what his ego is telling me.  he wont accept that.

That's why I said I think he looks to get the guaranteed money...Maybe like 5 years, 215 million with 140 guaranteed

[jrokh 507]

He wants to get more than Watson, Fully Guaranteed. That's why no one will go near this. It's why Baltimore tagged him with the non exclusive instead of the exclusive. They said, fine go find the deal you are insistent on. nothing but crickets...

[Ray_T 446]

there is now talk that indy is looking at possibly doing something here.  but it sounds like they dont want to part with 2 firsts.  sounds like they want to make an offer to Baltimore.

[Ray_T 446]

regarding the last post I made... here is the link

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35972064/colts-mull-deal-qb-lamar-jackson-special-player

[jrokh 507]

20 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

regarding the last post I made... here is the link

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35972064/colts-mull-deal-qb-lamar-jackson-special-player

 

Dead issue...

 

[Ray_T 446]

46 minutes ago, jrokh said:

 

Dead issue...

 

I guess Lamar would have to be willing to back off the fully guaranteed contract thing.

one other possible scenario is that he never wanted to stay in Baltimore and the outrageous ask on the contract was an attempt to make them move him.  so it is possible that if the colts acquire him, a deal may be signed that is more in line with what the market is for his services.

[jrokh 507]

1 minute ago, Ray_T said:

I guess Lamar would have to be willing to back off the fully guaranteed contract thing.

one other possible scenario is that he never wanted to stay in Baltimore and the outrageous ask on the contract was an attempt to make them move him.  so it is possible that if the colts acquire him, a deal may be signed that is more in line with what the market is for his services.

Why would they move him for less than two firsts, which a team would have to give by just signing him?

[Ray_T 446]

1 hour ago, jrokh said:

Why would they move him for less than two firsts, which a team would have to give by just signing him?

Well, The colts have the #4 overall pick I believe.

why would they sign him now, when they can wait until the draft, spend their #4 overall pick and then send 2 first rounds for the following 2 years?

in theory, with Lamar at QB those picks would be late first round picks.

so 2 picks at  lets say #20 overall and #22 overall is worth close to the #4 pick this year in what is considered to be a deep draft year.

so there may be incentive to do a trade now to make sure they get that #4 overall pick which may be worth 2 firsts in other years.  if Baltimore thinks they can get a good, young QB at #4 overall, maybe they make a deal to make sure they get the #4 overall pick.

if they dont deal, then the Colts can just wait until draft day, draft their guy at #4 and then sign Lamar and give up 2 (presumbably lower value) first round picks.

Thats my point.

 

[weepaws 1,797]

Owners talk is cheap, same with the coaches, who knows he just might be with the Colts despite what’s being said , most of this bs talk is all about leverage.  

[Ray_T 446]

Just now, weepaws said:

Owners talk is cheap, same with the coaches, who knows he just might be with the Colts despite what’s being said , most of this bs talk is all about leverage.  

of course it is.

All I am saying is.... if something happens here..... there is a fair chance they negotiate something because of the situation.

[Vikings4ever 485]

2 hours ago, jrokh said:

Why would they move him for less than two firsts, which a team would have to give by just signing him?

Because a team may be willing to give him a big contract, but not also give up 2 firsts. Then Jackson's a malcontent with a contract offer, but no contract. The Ravens may be content to let Jackson find someone to sign him, and get what they can in return.

[Ray_T 446]

33 minutes ago, Vikings4ever said:

Because a team may be willing to give him a big contract, but not also give up 2 firsts. Then Jackson's a malcontent with a contract offer, but no contract. The Ravens may be content to let Jackson find someone to sign him, and get what they can in return.

This is also a good point.

but its also a case where the #4 overall pick may be worth 2 normal first round picks if another team signs him instead.

[jrokh 507]

1 hour ago, Vikings4ever said:

Because a team may be willing to give him a big contract, but not also give up 2 firsts. Then Jackson's a malcontent with a contract offer, but no contract. The Ravens may be content to let Jackson find someone to sign him, and get what they can in return.

Exactly, then Baltimore automatically gets 2 firsts. So it makes no sense for them to trade him for less.

This isn’t really an issue of leverage for the Colts. Either they give Jackson what he wants or if they offer less Baltimore will just match. He is going back to Baltimore, regardless. Unless he sits out for a year…

[Ray_T 446]

19 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Exactly, then Baltimore automatically gets 2 firsts. So it makes no sense for them to trade him for less.

This isn’t really an issue of leverage for the Colts. Either they give Jackson what he wants or if they offer less Baltimore will just match. He is going back to Baltimore, regardless. Unless he sits out for a year…

in the end it really depends what Baltimore actually wants.

the #20 pick in each of the next 2 years likely does not get them another QB.   Thats what happens if they wait and then  the colts sign him sometime after draft day.

but the #4 overall pick..... that gets them a QB.   the question is whether it gets them the QB they want.

if they play ball now, the #4 overall pick is clearly in play.   if they wait, that option is off the table when Indy makes their selection (or trades it away)

They could acquire Minshew as a throw in along with a first.   Then they have two QB's capable of starting.   I could see Minshew playing well in that offense but its also possible he isnt the starter.

another option is they trade for that #4 pick and get a player that fills a need elsewhere.   then Acquire Zach Wilson.    It would appear the Jets are keen to move on from him.   They can probably get him cheap.   

Lots of options here, but it really depends what the Ravens want to do.

[jrokh 507]

5 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

in the end it really depends what Baltimore actually wants.

the #20 pick in each of the next 2 years likely does not get them another QB.   Thats what happens if they wait and then  the colts sign him sometime after draft day.

but the #4 overall pick..... that gets them a QB.   the question is whether it gets them the QB they want.

if they play ball now, the #4 overall pick is clearly in play.   if they wait, that option is off the table when Indy makes their selection (or trades it away)

They could acquire Minshew as a throw in along with a first.   Then they have two QB's capable of starting.   I could see Minshew playing well in that offense but its also possible he isnt the starter.

another option is they trade for that #4 pick and get a player that fills a need elsewhere.   then Acquire Zach Wilson.    It would appear the Jets are keen to move on from him.   They can probably get him cheap.   

Lots of options here, but it really depends what the Ravens want to do.

I didn’t realize the #4 pick was in play. Colts would be stupid to trade that, but from Baltimore’s perspective that might be worth it.

[Ray_T 446]

14 minutes ago, jrokh said:

I didn’t realize the #4 pick was in play. Colts would be stupid to trade that, but from Baltimore’s perspective that might be worth it.

its in play if the colts sign him now.

this is likely why they wait to sign him.  or maybe Baltimore accepts that pick in lieu of 2 firsts.

in that scenario it makes more sense for Baltimore to do a trade.  Especially if they want to draft another QB.

[TBayXXXVII 1,761]

5 hours ago, Sean Mooney said:

I would venture a guess Jackson ends up getting something in the neighborhood of 140-150 million guaranteed. 

He missed 5 games each of the last 2 years.  His value is in running the ball.  He's at a greater risk when he runs.  Anyone who guarantees him anything past year 2, is foolish.

[Ray_T 446]

1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

He missed 5 games each of the last 2 years.  His value is in running the ball.  He's at a greater risk when he runs.  Anyone who guarantees him anything past year 2, is foolish.

I dont disagree.   running QB's usually expire before age 30.

some last longer, but its not typical.  and given the # of games Jackson has missed due to injury already, I cant see him being the exception.

[weepaws 1,797]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

He missed 5 games each of the last 2 years.  His value is in running the ball.  He's at a greater risk when he runs.  Anyone who guarantees him anything past year 2, is foolish.

Foolish indeed , possible that it happens, I think it could.  

[Sean Mooney 922]

4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

He missed 5 games each of the last 2 years.  His value is in running the ball.  He's at a greater risk when he runs.  Anyone who guarantees him anything past year 2, is foolish.

There are plenty of foolish contracts in football. What's one more.

[Ray_T 446]

1 hour ago, Sean Mooney said:

There are plenty of foolish contracts in football. What's one more.

well, anything beyond 3 years should not be fully guaranteed.

I figure he likely has at least 2 and possibly 3 years left in the tank.

beyond that it gets real dicey.

the way I'd write the contract is 3 years guaranteed.   if his shelf life is only 2 years, eating one year on a contract isnt completely outrageous.

4th year becomes guaranteed if he plays x number of games over the first 3 years.   or if hes still on the roster at the end (or the start) of 3 years (meaning if the team keeps him beyond 3 years the 4th year becomes guaranteed).

5th year not guaranteed or partial guarantee ( likely signing bonus portion only or a small amount of 5th year gets a guarantee)

This way there is an out at the 3 and 4 year mark if he doesnt perform or cannot stay healthy.

most teams have insurance policies on their top players that will cover the salary in the event of career ending injury.   it is the cap hit that kills them in the event  he cannot play.

 

[League Champion 362]

Forget the dumb contract, can he even play??

He's regressed as a passer and is always hurt. You'd be crazy to sign this guy. 

[TBayXXXVII 1,761]

On 3/28/2023 at 8:41 PM, Sean Mooney said:

There are plenty of foolish contracts in football. What's one more.

This is definitely a true statement.

[Ray_T 446]

21 hours ago, League Champion said:

Forget the dumb contract, can he even play??

He's regressed as a passer and is always hurt. You'd be crazy to sign this guy. 

well, its hard to say if its a true regression.   The ravens did him no favours by trading his #1 WR.   Granted when the player doesnt want to be there, its not like the team really has a choice.  I do agree that as a team you dont want guys in your dressing room who dont want to be there.

That said, you are not buying him for his passing ability.  you are buying him for the dual threat nature he can add to your offense.   The fact he can run forces teams to have a spy which means one less person in coverage and that opens things up elsewhere in the offense.

but based purely on production, hes not top 5.   Top 10 yes but not elite by any means.

but as mentioned longevity is the real concern with a contract of the type Lamar is wanting.   if he can play to the current level for 5 years and remain healthy, that is one thing.   but I dont think that is even remotely realistic.   Thats the larger issue.   you dont give fully guaranteed contracts to players like this.    Case in point: Jimmy G.   he took his team to the superbowl and his team still drafted his replacement because the guy cant stay healthy.

Jimmy G is still a starting calibre QB but had to take a hit on the money because he cant stay healthy.

the same should apply to Lamar.   Granted Lamar has not missed the same amount of time as Jimmy G but the same concerns detract from his value.

that reason alone is reason enough not to give a fully guaranteed contract to the man.  

I respect what hes been able to do and I respect his talent, but this is business.   you gotta weigh the value of what he delivers against the money and hes currently asking too much.

[TBayXXXVII 1,761]

On 3/29/2023 at 4:58 PM, League Champion said:

Forget the dumb contract, can he even play??

He's regressed as a passer and is always hurt. You'd be crazy to sign this guy. 

I wouldn't go that far, but to an extent, I agree.  I'd sign him, and even pay him a nice chunk of change, but it would be short term with limited guaranteed money.  I would give no signing bonus, but I would guarantee the first 2 years.  I'd be ok with a 5 year deal too.  For example, to me, the perfect contract would be a 5 year / $175M deal where there's NO bonus money.  All 5 years are at $35M in base pay where the only guaranteed money is years 1 & 2.  That's it.  If he gets hurt both of those first 2 years and misses too many games and not available for the playoffs... I cut him after year 2.  Otherwise, if he stays healthy, I have no problem giving him $35M each year. 

[League Champion 362]

On 3/31/2023 at 9:33 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

I wouldn't go that far, but to an extent, I agree.  I'd sign him, and even pay him a nice chunk of change, but it would be short term with limited guaranteed money.  I would give no signing bonus, but I would guarantee the first 2 years.  I'd be ok with a 5 year deal too.  For example, to me, the perfect contract would be a 5 year / $175M deal where there's NO bonus money.  All 5 years are at $35M in base pay where the only guaranteed money is years 1 & 2.  That's it.  If he gets hurt both of those first 2 years and misses too many games and not available for the playoffs... I cut him after year 2.  Otherwise, if he stays healthy, I have no problem giving him $35M each year. 

I'm with you but is he worth the nonsense? He's the black Aaron Rodgers. Is he going to pull this crap every few years? Rodgers is at least worth putting up with the BS, Lamar isn't. 

[TBayXXXVII 1,761]

11 minutes ago, League Champion said:

I'm with you but is he worth the nonsense? He's the black Aaron Rodgers. Is he going to pull this crap every few years? Rodgers is at least worth putting up with the BS, Lamar isn't. 

Is he really that bad or does he just think that he's done enough to warrant a big contract?  Let's be honest, he's accomplished more than Watson, Prescott, & Jones... and they all got paid, so why shouldn't he (from his perspective)?  I don't think he's wrong for asking for what he is.  Now, I don't think he's worth it... just like I don't think the other 3 are/were, but I don't think it's fair to label him negatively for being involved in the business end of football.

[League Champion 362]

25 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

he really that bad or does he just think that he's done enough to warrant a big contract? 

No, he's definitely not "bad", he's not that next level QB either. He's not a good enough passer, and look at QBs that win Championships, all of them can make throws from the pocket. Lamar just can't. He's near the top of the second tier IMO. 

[Ray_T 446]

3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Is he really that bad or does he just think that he's done enough to warrant a big contract?  Let's be honest, he's accomplished more than Watson, Prescott, & Jones... and they all got paid, so why shouldn't he (from his perspective)?  I don't think he's wrong for asking for what he is.  Now, I don't think he's worth it... just like I don't think the other 3 are/were, but I don't think it's fair to label him negatively for being involved in the business end of football.

I would definitely not say hes accomplished more than Watson and Prescott.   He has accomplished more than jones.

Watson if you exclude his rookie year had seasons where he threw for 4150, 3850 and just over 4800 yards. 

Jackson surpassed 3000 yards passing once.   its not even close.   the Body of work for Watson is clearly superior.

even if including rush yards, its still superior by a smaller margin but still we are looking at over 4250 all purpose yards in 2 years and over 5000 all purpose yards in his year prior to the contract.

Jacksons best year he got 4300 all purpose yards

as for Dak its not really comparable as hes more of a drop back passer who can run when he needs to.

but in his rookie year he put up 3667 yards along with 280 on the ground for a total of almost 3850 total yards  as a rookie.

year 3 he put up 3885 pass yards along with 300 rush yards for 4185 total yards and the following year got 4900 pass yards along with 277 rush yards for almost 5200 all purpose yards

in terms of td lamar performs better than dak but dak had a td beast in zeke so it may not be an apples to apples comparison

hes comparable to desean overall but really had a huge year in 2019 and has steadily declined 2 years in a row then rebounded slightly.  realistically he only had 2 good years in terms of td

while i am not a huge fan of any of these guys both Dak and Desean have accomplished more prior to their big contract, in my opinion

 

 

[Gepetto 668]

https://www.pff.com/nfl/players/lamar-jackson/46416

2022 season pff grade 85.2 is a very high grade.