UPDATE: Aaron Rodgers to the Jets

[nobody 2,031]

I was confused about all the Aaron Rodgers trade talk coming out of the media in regards to leverage and who has it, and what compensation should be and all of that.  The reason I was confused is I kept hearing how Rodgers saying he wants to play for the jets somehow gave the Packers all the leverage.

At this point it's probably important to point out that the media hates Rodgers.  He lies to them.  He's aloof.  He didn't get vaccinated which kicked off a whole debate on if he should be allowed to win the MVP because of it which in turn stirred up enough backlash that it propelled him to MVP.  The reason it's important is you have to filter what people say through the lens of who they like and don't like, so, perhaps the media was just jumping on a chance to take a dump on Rodgers.  

That made me want to look into his contract because I was thinking there is no way in hell GB wants Rodgers in their building next year after that huge contract he signed.  I found this article which I think explained it nicely.

https://overthecap.com/looking-ahead-to-the-packers-options-with-aaron-rodgers

Essentially GB is motivated to wait until after June 1st to make a trade because it splits the cap hit they need to take over two years.  So if you're GB, you can ask for a high price knowing you have months to just see if the jets are going to jet and then you just put in the paperwork and make the trade effective June 1, but there's nothing stopping you from just sitting on the negotiation until June unless they just desperately want picks this year.

So this whole thing about GB having all the leverage is nonsense.  Rodgers can't be on their roster next year and they can't cut him, so they have to trade him or else they'll pay him to go away.  They just aren't going to officially trade him until June 1 so there is no need for them to rush, but GB really has very little leverage at all here.  Rodgers is going to be a jet.  It's just going to be later this off-season.

 

 

[League Champion 1,593]

1 hour ago, nobody said:

Rodgers is going to be a jet.  It's just going to be later this off-season.

No doubt. Apparently the Packers wanted a 2nd round pick this season and a first round pick next season. The Jets want a clause for next year's pick in case Rodgers retires or pulls his crap again. The Packers don't want to budge.

Apparently that's the latest and only hold up right now. It's going to get done and probably pretty soon. 

[jrokh 567]

I would think the Packers want immediate compensation for this year's draft. Waiting until June 1st eliminates that option...

[Vikings4ever 496]

1 hour ago, jrokh said:

I would think the Packers want immediate compensation for this year's draft. Waiting until June 1st eliminates that option...

Jets are in no hurry to get the deal done. If anything, stringing it out is advantageous to them. Just depends on how when the Packers blink.

[nobody 2,031]

2 hours ago, jrokh said:

I would think the Packers want immediate compensation for this year's draft. Waiting until June 1st eliminates that option...

That seems to be the other talking point that the media loves.  I'm not sure why the Packers would care about some 2nd or 3rd round draft pick accelerated into this year in exchange for losing an additional 24M in cap space.  

Couldn't they just sign a couple of free agents with the cap space?

[Gepetto 977]

The media reported before Aaron Rodgers said he would go to the Jets the trade deal was already worked out and the Packers and Jets were only waiting on ARod to say he's ok with it.  I still believe the deal is worked out and they are just waiting until June 1st.  Told someone today at work about this when they asked about the A Rodgers trade situation.

[jrokh 567]

12 hours ago, nobody said:

That seems to be the other talking point that the media loves.  I'm not sure why the Packers would care about some 2nd or 3rd round draft pick accelerated into this year in exchange for losing an additional 24M in cap space.  

Couldn't they just sign a couple of free agents with the cap space?

I don't know what the media is saying, but it's common sense. Teams always prefer compensation for the upcoming draft over future years. Its why all those draft value charts have much higher values for current drafts over future draft picks. Could they sign free agents? Who is left? OBJ?

[nobody 2,031]

Is some 2nd or 3rd rounder really going to make or break the Packers over the next few years?  They barely even have a QB.  If anything, why not prove to yourself Jordan Love isn't a long term answer android n the 2023 season.  A couple of picks won't really influence that over some free agent defensive lineman or journeyman safety, and then use those picks to either move up in next year's draft or build around the next guy.  Or hell, use your cap space to restructure and front load some contracts of guys on your team like Devondre Campbell or Rasul Douglas, 

[taco breath 419]

17 hours ago, Vikings4ever said:

Jets are in no hurry to get the deal done. If anything, stringing it out is advantageous to them. Just depends on how when the Packers blink.

this is akin to an old western shootout.

[weepaws 2,451]

Any pick could be the beginning of a cornerstone for a team.  

[Ray_T 587]

21 hours ago, League Champion said:

The Jets want a clause for next year's pick in case Rodgers retires or pulls his crap again. The Packers don't want to budge.

 

this is a reasonable ask.

I figure Rodgers is good for likely only one or two seasons anyhow.    so making the reward somewhat linked to the amount he plays makes sense.

[seafoam1 1,878]

My favorite scenario has the Jets telling GB and Rodgers, "No thanks. We decided to go into a different direction."

Leaving Rodgers and GB stuck with each other this coming year. 

[weepaws 2,451]

And the Packers win  the NFC north.  

[seafoam1 1,878]

On 3/30/2023 at 5:59 PM, weepaws said:

And the Packers win  the NFC north.  

Just like last year?

[weepaws 2,451]

8 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

Just like last year?

That would have been the Vikings winning the NFC north last season. Welcome 

HTH.  

[Engorgeous George 1,147]

Teams should swap draft position this year and settle for an additional second next year on top of that.

 

[Mike FF Today 607]

... and the deal finally gets done.

 

[seafoam1 1,878]

When do the Jets have to start sitting Rodgers to make sure he doesn't hit the 65% of plays so they can keep their #1 next year?

Jets have a good team and can make waves this year if Rodgers doesn't get all weird on them.

[Mufaletta 33]

1 hour ago, seafoam1 said:

if Rodgers doesn't get all weird on them.

But we all know he will. 

[AxeElf 787]

Always fun to watch the Jets getting rodgered.

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

This trade puts me on the fence in regards to keeping Christian Watson.  Personally, I just don't think Love will even be remotely good.  Fortunately, we don't have to make the decision for keepers until after pre-season.

[Ray_T 587]

10 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

This trade puts me on the fence in regards to keeping Christian Watson.  Personally, I just don't think Love will even be remotely good.  Fortunately, we don't have to make the decision for keepers until after pre-season.

they moved up a couple slots in round 1.    it is possible they have their eye on a second tier QB prospect would could still be there at 13.   its also possible they still trade up further

[Gepetto 977]

11 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

This trade puts me on the fence in regards to keeping Christian Watson.  Personally, I just don't think Love will even be remotely good.  Fortunately, we don't have to make the decision for keepers until after pre-season.

If you look deep into the statistics Christian Watson has Julio Jones potential plus touchdowns.  I'd keep Watson over Tyreek Hill if I didn't think everyone in my league is sleeping on Watson and I can just draft him back at a good price.  Love will be really good too.

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

11 hours ago, Gepetto said:

If you look deep into the statistics Christian Watson has Julio Jones potential plus touchdowns.  I'd keep Watson over Tyreek Hill if I didn't think everyone in my league is sleeping on Watson and I can just draft him back at a good price.  Love will be really good too.

Watson as a talent, isn't the person I'm worried about... it's Love's ability to get him the ball.  I'm definitely not on the same page as you on Love's future, with respect to your confidence.  You may be right, but at the time of the draft, I remember there not being a good consensus on his long term potential.  Some even had him as a 2nd round pick.  It's not like we have a real sample size to go on.  Like I said, I don't have to lock in my keepers until after preseason, so I'll be able to see him play a couple games (hopefully).

[polecatt 399]

On 4/25/2023 at 9:21 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

This trade puts me on the fence in regards to keeping Christian Watson.  Personally, I just don't think Love will even be remotely good.  Fortunately, we don't have to make the decision for keepers until after pre-season.

I don't know what your keeper rules are, but unless you can only keep a small number, he's somebody I would try to keep.

Young WRs are the lifeblood of dynasty leagues now. Even if you don't favor him so much, he should be excellent trade bait.

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

14 minutes ago, polecatt said:

I don't know what your keeper rules are, but unless you can only keep a small number, he's somebody I would try to keep.

Young WRs are the lifeblood of dynasty leagues now. Even if you don't favor him so much, he should be excellent trade bait.

It's salary cap based.  Players have dollar values based on performance and draft spot.  Players generally range in $3 to $8 range (some are really cheap, like $0.50, some more expensive and over $9, with $10 being the max possible), and our cap is $30.  On average, we keep about 5 or 6 guys.  It's also a 2 QB league, so it's in your best interest to keep 1.  Here's my roster....

QB	Justin Herbert	$5.92
QB	Derek Carr	$5.87
RB	Josh Jacobs	$7.26
RB	Najee Harris	$6.60
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	$5.37
RB	Kenneth Walker III	$4.23
RB	Javonte Williams	$3.69
RB	AJ Dillon	$3.48
RB	Rachaad White	$3.07
RB	Zamir White	$0.31
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	$6.78
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	$3.89
WR	Darnell Mooney	$3.65
WR	Christian Watson	$3.27
WR	Skyy Moore	$2.56
WR	Treylon Burks	$1.63
WR	Calvin Austin III	$0.20
TE	Dallas Goedert	$4.29
TE	Juwan Johnson	$2.75
TE	Greg Dulcich	$1.83

 

[Gepetto 977]

I like 

 

QBJustin Herbert$5.92

RBJosh Jacobs$7.26

RBKenneth Walker III$4.23

RBJavonte Williams$3.69

WRJa'Marr Chase$6.78

WRDeAndre Hopkins$3.89

WRChristian Watson$3.27

 

So for me it comes down to Hopkins vs Watson.  I'd keep Watson.  Good luck with your decision, at least you can wait and see some preseason games first.

[weepaws 2,451]

I would keep both qbs, Walker and Chase and Watson. 

[polecatt 399]

On 4/26/2023 at 10:49 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

It's salary cap based.  Players have dollar values based on performance and draft spot.  Players generally range in $3 to $8 range (some are really cheap, like $0.50, some more expensive and over $9, with $10 being the max possible), and our cap is $30.  On average, we keep about 5 or 6 guys.  It's also a 2 QB league, so it's in your best interest to keep 1.  Here's my roster....

QB	Justin Herbert	$5.92
QB	Derek Carr	$5.87
RB	Josh Jacobs	$7.26
RB	Najee Harris	$6.60
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	$5.37
RB	Kenneth Walker III	$4.23
RB	Javonte Williams	$3.69
RB	AJ Dillon	$3.48
RB	Rachaad White	$3.07
RB	Zamir White	$0.31
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	$6.78
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	$3.89
WR	Darnell Mooney	$3.65
WR	Christian Watson	$3.27
WR	Skyy Moore	$2.56
WR	Treylon Burks	$1.63
WR	Calvin Austin III	$0.20
TE	Dallas Goedert	$4.29
TE	Juwan Johnson	$2.75
TE	Greg Dulcich	$1.83

 

That's an okay price for Watson, but I would be all over Treylon Burks at $1.63.

Here's who I would keep, for what it's worth lol

QB- J. Herbert

RB- K. Walker, J Williams, (N. Harris, maybe)

WR- J. Chase, T. Burks, D. Hopkins

TE- D. Goedert

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

6 hours ago, polecatt said:

That's an okay price for Watson, but I would be all over Treylon Burks at $1.63.

Here's who I would keep, for what it's worth lol

QB- J. Herbert

RB- K. Walker, J Williams, (N. Harris, maybe)

WR- J. Chase, T. Burks, D. Hopkins

TE- D. Goedert

 

That's where I was leaning.  If Rodgers stayed in GB, I'd keep him over Burks and not keep Goedert.

[listen2me 23 1,529]

On 4/30/2023 at 5:21 PM, TBayXXXVII said:

That's where I was leaning.  If Rodgers stayed in GB, I'd keep him over Burks and not keep Goedert.

Watson had some of thr per reception/route type numbers in NFL.  Amongst top guys.  He is a definite huge upside guy.  It isn't like Rodgers had some massive year last year.  Didn't even have 4k yds.  Not saying Love will be awesome but I think Love could approach Rodgers yds and TD numbera from last season.  

That said GB drafted pass catchers.  So perhaps the ball gets spread around too thin.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

1 hour ago, listen2me 23 said:

Watson had some of thr per reception/route type numbers in NFL.  Amongst top guys.  He is a definite huge upside guy.  It isn't like Rodgers had some massive year last year.  Didn't even have 4k yds.  Not saying Love will be awesome but I think Love could approach Rodgers yds and TD numbera from last season.  

That said GB drafted pass catchers.  So perhaps the ball gets spread around too thin.  

Watson isn't the guy I'm worried about...  I think he's a high end talent with a good shot to be a great NFL WR.  I think Love is gonna blow chunks.  I think the Packers are drafting new QB in 24 months, maybe 12.

Aaron Rodgers, since 2017 has been a 1-target guy, where Adams would get like 80 targets more than the next guy.  Last year proved what most of us knew, that Lazard is a JAG.  Watson & Doubs were the real talent in that locker room... the problem was that neither could stay on the field together.  I think they played 7 games together all year.  This year, had they kept Rodgers, I think would've mimicked a year like 2016 (just not quite to the extent that Nelson and Adams reached).  I think both could've been in the 85 reception, 1100 yard, 10 TD range (if they stayed healthy).  With Love, I think the ceiling is that one of them might come close to that.  Meaning, Watson be at 80, 950, and 7 and Doubs being at 70, 800, and 4... again, "ceiling".  Nothing wrong with those numbers, I mean, that's decent WR2 numbers for Watson, but I think he's a top 7 guy with Rodgers.

[listen2me 23 1,529]

Just now, TBayXXXVII said:

Watson isn't the guy I'm worried about...  I think he's a high end talent with a good shot to be a great NFL WR.  I think Love is gonna blow chunks.  I think the Packers are drafting new QB in 24 months, maybe 12.

Aaron Rodgers, since 2017 has been a 1-target guy, where Adams would get like 80 targets more than the next guy.  Last year proved what most of us knew, that Lazard is a JAG.  Watson & Doubs were the real talent in that locker room... the problem was that neither could stay on the field together.  I think they played 7 games together all year.  This year, had they kept Rodgers, I think would've mimicked a year like 2016 (just not quite to the extent that Nelson and Adams reached).  I think both could've been in the 85 reception, 1100 yard, 10 TD range (if they stayed healthy).  With Love, I think the ceiling is that one of them might come close to that.  Meaning, Watson be at 80, 950, and 7 and Doubs being at 70, 800, and 4... again, "ceiling".  Nothing wrong with those numbers, I mean, that's decent WR2 numbers for Watson, but I think he's a top 7 guy with Rodgers.

Why do you think he will blow chunks? I don't think any of us know.  But players and guys around the league say he has all the tools.  Is pretty good football IQ.  Either way I won't argue much about that since I feel ssying he will be real good has as much merit as saying he will be real bad.   No one knows.  But I do have optimism because he does have the talent.  And he isn't zach wilson between the ears.   Lafleur runs a QB friendly system.  

But what exactly do you see in Burks?  

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

57 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

Why do you think he will blow chunks? I don't think any of us know.  But players and guys around the league say he has all the tools.  Is pretty good football IQ.  Either way I won't argue much about that since I feel ssying he will be real good has as much merit as saying he will be real bad.   No one knows.  But I do have optimism because he does have the talent.  And he isn't zach wilson between the ears.   Lafleur runs a QB friendly system.  

But what exactly do you see in Burks?  

I'm always skeptical of small college QB's.  Yeah, I know, "Utah State is Div 1".  But the MWC is mediocre at best.  I know his last year he had a new coach, but I wouldn't have cared less either way.  I know you're going to give me a "he help his own against KC", song and dance, and how he played well when he came in.  Yeah, he came in when they were getting blown out in some of those games.  I don't really watch a lot of college football, but I've watched games here and there when a lot of people were talking him up back in the day.  When I watched him, he did put up good numbers, but it always looked like he drops back, waits for his WR to outrun the DB, then heaves it downfield.  That'll work in the Mountain West Conference, it won't work in the NFL.  I think a lot of NFL people thought that too, which is why he dropped into the mid-20's.  I think the only reason he got drafted there was because the Packers were probably stroking their ego thinking they could hit on another later first round pick again, while sitting him for a few years.

I think Burks and Watson are on the same level.  I think the Packers got a steal with Watson.  The reason I favor Burks is our keeper system.  The fact that Burks went to Tennessee was the reason I was able to use a later pick on him and get him at a cheaper price.  In a sense, I see Watson and Burks at the same level of talent, but because of cost to keep players, is the reason I'm choosing Burks.  If they were the same price or closer, I'd have gone with Watson.  I'll add that I think Love is the better of the 3 QB's involved, including Willis and Levis, but as you said and we already know, there's a lot more talent in the WR room in GB to spread the ball around.  In Tennessee, there's Burks and 5 JAG's.  I expect Burks to be a target monster.

[listen2me 23 1,529]

Just now, TBayXXXVII said:

I'm always skeptical of small college QB's.  Yeah, I know, "Utah State is Div 1".  But the MWC is mediocre at best.  I know his last year he had a new coach, but I wouldn't have cared less either way.  I know you're going to give me a "he help his own against KC", song and dance, and how he played well when he came in.  Yeah, he came in when they were getting blown out in some of those games.  I don't really watch a lot of college football, but I've watched games here and there and a lot of people were talking him up back in the day.  When I watched him, he did put up good numbers, but it always looked like he drops back, waits for his WR to outrun the DB, then heaves it downfield.  That'll work in the Mountain West Conference, it won't work in the NFL.

I think Burks and Watson are on the same level.  I think the Packers got a steal with Watson.  The reason I favor Burks is our keeper system.  The fact that Burks went to Tennessee was the reason I was able to use a later pick on him and get him at a cheaper price.  In a sense, I see Watson and Burks at the same level of talent, but because of cost to keep players, is the reason I'm choosing Burks.  If they were the same price or closer, I'd have gone with Watson.  I'll add that I think Love is the better of the 3 QB's involved, including Willis and Levis, but as you said and we already know, there's a lot more talent in the WR room in GB to spread the ball around.  In Tennessee, there's Burks and 5 JAG's.  I expect Burks to be a target monster.

I am pretty sure NFL coaching has polished him up for 3 years.  Tom Clements who Rodgers wanted back in as QB coach after working with Rodgers earlier in his career says great things about Love.  And they kept Clements on this year with Rodgers' departure because he and Love made a connection.  

Allen Wyoming.  Big Ben Mia of Ohio.  Doesn't happen all the time but I wouldn't say Utah St is some deal breaker.  Rodgers played at community college before Cal.  

[listen2me 23 1,529]

Watson has elite elite speed.  Burks does not.  I think his upside is way more.

How many times Love throws it and the number of different targets they have out there could spread it thin.  That is a real concern going forward in terms of his volume.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

18 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

I am pretty sure NFL coaching has polished him up for 3 years.  Tom Clements who Rodgers wanted back in as QB coach after working with Rodgers earlier in his career says great things about Love.  And they kept Clements on this year with Rodgers' departure because he and Love made a connection.  

Allen Wyoming.  Big Ben Mia of Ohio.  Doesn't happen all the time but I wouldn't say Utah St is some deal breaker.  Rodgers played at community college before Cal.  

Maybe.  That doesn't always work though, as we all know.

You think Clements wouldn't say great things about the guy he has no choice but to work with?

Allen and Roethlisberger were drafted to be Day 1 starters... Love was drafted knowing that he wouldn't play for at least 3 years.  Big difference.

Yeah, Rodgers went to a community college, but he did play multiple years in the Pac 10... Love can't say that.

[listen2me 23 1,529]

Just now, TBayXXXVII said:

Maybe.  That doesn't always work though, as we all know.

You think Clements wouldn't say great things about the guy he has no choice but to work with?

Allen and Roethlisberger were drafted to be Day 1 starters... Love was drafted knowing that he wouldn't play for at least 3 years.  Big difference.

Yeah, Rodgers went to a community college, but he did play multiple years in the Pac 10... Love can't say that.

Thats all true.  Pac 10 is basically a good mid american conf these days however.  

Should be fun.  We will see who is right or maybe he ends up right down thr line mediocre.   I think he will surprise the general public.  

[listen2me 23 1,529]

Obviously Wentz didn't pan out and didn't look good after injury.  But he made 2nd team all pro his 2nd year out of ND St.  Was on way to leading Philly deep until Foles fonished the job.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

20 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

Watson has elite elite speed.  Burks does not.  I think his upside is way more.

How many times Love throws it and the number of different targets they have out there could spread it thin.  That is a real concern going forward in terms of his volume.  

I think you're naïve to how fast Burks is.  Yeah, at the Combine Watson ran a 4.36 and Burks a 4.55, but Burks is fast.  Here's an example.  At the end of that article, based on watching him play, they projected Burks to run a 4.37 at the Combine.  Just because he didn't, it doesn't mean he's not fast.

As I said, the Combine isn't the be-all-end-all, that goes for Watson too.  Just because he ran a 4.36, doesn't mean that's the fasted he can run, but here's an article on game speed about him.  He hit 20+ mph 12 times last year, with his top being 20.97.  As you saw in the link I gave you with Burks, he hit over 22 mph.  So it's not like they're all that different.

I don't think either has more upside than the other, I think they're both top end guys.