Who's getting drafted at #2?

[seafoam1 1,878]

Seems like all the speculation is Carolina taking Young at #1 since he announced he has cancelled the rest of his team visits.

And now Vegas is putting the odds on Houston taking Will Anderson at #2.

So if indeed Young does go #1, does Houston take Anderson over Stroud or trade to who knows who? Seems like the QB outlook this year is coming back to reality that these guys aren't all that the media and/or fans have hyped them up to be now that all the excitement is focusing on actually drafting someone in a week instead of dreaming of a QB savior that's not necessarily there. 

In my book, Anderson if the favorite to be drafted #2 at +135 with Stroud coming in at +260, then Levis at +270, and Tyree Wilson +350 and with Young showing up at +850.

[Ray_T 587]

2 hours ago, seafoam1 said:

Seems like all the speculation is Carolina taking Young at #1 since he announced he has cancelled the rest of his team visits.

And now Vegas is putting the odds on Houston taking Will Anderson at #2.

So if indeed Young does go #1, does Houston take Anderson over Stroud or trade to who knows who? Seems like the QB outlook this year is coming back to reality that these guys aren't all that the media and/or fans have hyped them up to be now that all the excitement is focusing on actually drafting someone in a week instead of dreaming of a QB savior that's not necessarily there. 

In my book, Anderson if the favorite to be drafted #2 at +135 with Stroud coming in at +260, then Levis at +270, and Tyree Wilson +350 and with Young showing up at +850.

So you think Houston is gonna go with Mills for another year?

I'm not sure thats so wise when you have a shot at a guy who in a normal draft year might go #1 overall.   They  should go Stroud but there are at least one or two other QBs in this draft who I think would be an improvment on what they have now.

I guess they could draft Anderson and then take a QB in round 2 or stick with Mills.

The team has a lot of holes to fill so there may be some value in getting some young players drafted before bringing in the new QB.    I'm not sure that's the way I would go, but its possible.

[seafoam1 1,878]

3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

So you think Houston is gonna go with Mills for another year?

I'm not sure thats so wise when you have a shot at a guy who in a normal draft year might go #1 overall.   They  should go Stroud but there are at least one or two other QBs in this draft who I think would be an improvment on what they have now.

I guess they could draft Anderson and then take a QB in round 2 or stick with Mills.

The team has a lot of holes to fill so there may be some value in getting some young players drafted before bringing in the new QB.    I'm not sure that's the way I would go, but its possible.

I have no idea what Houston does there. I'm just saying my book is making Anderson the favorite to be drafted at #2. Which means they think both that Houston will stay at 2 and pick Anderson. As I think it's obvious that no one is trading up for Anderson.

That said, if I were Houston and I really think Hooker will be there at 12, then I'm going that route easy. Personally, I wouldn't gamble on him falling that far.

[Ray_T 587]

1 hour ago, seafoam1 said:

I have no idea what Hoyston foes there. I'm just saying mh book is making Anderson the favorite to be drafted at #2. Which means they think both that Houston will stay at 2 and pick Anderson. As I think it's obvious that no one is trading up for Anderson.

That said, if I were Houston and I really think Hooker will be there at 12, then I'm going that route easy. Personally, I wouldn't gamble on him falling that far.

fair enough.

but if Houston does not want to take a QB at 2 they probably should look at trading down.

or if Indy is still wanting a QB they should look at making a 3 way deal where they move down to 3 while AZ moves down to 4 and Indy moves from 4 to 2.

this move makes sense as we know AZ isnt taking a QB.    I am pretty sure Kyler Murray is there for the long term on that contract.    I guess there is always the possibility they take a QB at 3 and Trade Kyler away but that's a pretty risky move.      I'd say the odds of that happening are close to zero.

 

[weepaws 2,450]

I say once the draft has taken place, we shall all know the answers to these tough questions.  

 

[Showboat 142]

Betting on draft picks seems like a sucker's game and ripe for corruption.  Insiders can easily leak information to manipulate the odds as desired.

[seafoam1 1,878]

18 minutes ago, Showboat said:

Betting on draft picks seems like a sucker's game and ripe for corruption.  Insiders can easily leak information to manipulate the odds as desired.

For sure. I haven't bet since the NCAA tournament. Somehow made a killing on that. I only bet on that because I was bored but holy moly was luck on my side.

Anyway, I was only looking at the odds from Vegas, not really "insiders". I don't believe anyone when it comes to the draft. Not because I think they are lying, simply because I don't think anyone knows shlt except for a select couple people on each team. I heard even some GMs have multiple draft boards to keep their own coaches and scouts guessing. But I gotta say, if I were to trust anyone, it's Vegas. Their business model is to not price bets too out of line of where they think they will be and somehow they are pretty darn good at it in the long run. 

In this case, I would maybe bet a few dollars on Stroud going second. At +260 it seems worth the risk and as always, I never bet more than I can afford to lose in the end. Still not positive on it but I wouldn't be surprised if the +260 gets closer to +190 as the draft approaches.

[seafoam1 1,878]

29 minutes ago, Showboat said:

Betting on draft picks seems like a sucker's game and ripe for corruption.  Insiders can easily leak information to manipulate the odds as desired.

Oh, and betting on anything in general can be considered a suckers game and ripe for corruption. 

I do ok most of the time and find it a fun hobby depending on the time of year. 

[League Champion 1,593]

I don't believe for a second that the Texans pass on Young or Stroud at 2. If they do then they deserve to suck. 

[Super Cubs 132]

I think the Texans take Tyree Wilson if they decide to go defense with the #2 pick.

[seafoam1 1,878]

Young is -1200 and Stroud is +650 for the first pick. That news about Young cancelling the rest if his visits makes Vegas pretty sure Young is going #1. 

[JagFan 97]

When will people learn that AL QBs are fools gold?

[jrokh 567]

6 minutes ago, JagFan said:

When will people learn that AL QBs are fools gold?

well considering only two were drafted in the first round in the last 40 years or so, give or take, everyone...

[seafoam1 1,878]

1 hour ago, JagFan said:

When will people learn that AL QBs are fools gold?

I'm not familiar with the numbers. Are there some schools that are turning out first round drafted QBs that turn into NFL homeruns year after year? Like let's say, 3 current top 10 NFL QBs in the past 10 - 15 years?

[seafoam1 1,878]

5 hours ago, Super Cubs said:

I think the Texans take Tyree Wilson if they decide to go defense with the #2 pick.

I like Wilson better as well. I think they could trade down with the Raiders and still get him there I'm guessing. I would imagine the Raiders would love to get Stroud.

[jrokh 567]

1 hour ago, seafoam1 said:

I'm not familiar with the numbers. Are there some schools that are turning out first round drafted QBs that turn into NFL homeruns year after year? Like let's say, 3 current top 10 NFL QBs in the past 10 - 15 years?

To your point: these are the top 12 QB's last season by Total QBR:

1)Mahomes- Texas Tech. 2) Josh Allen- Wyoming. 3) Tua- Alabama. 4) Jalen Hurts- Oklahoma. 5) Jared Goff- Cal. 6) Daniel Jones- Duke. 6) Geno Smith- West Virginia. 8 ) Jacoby Brisett- NC State. 9) Lamar Jackson- Louisville. 10) Joe Burrow- LSU. 11) Herbert- Oregon. 12) Dak- Miss State. 

No repeat schools. Seems random to me.

[kcBlitzkrieg 17]

On 4/19/2023 at 1:42 PM, Ray_T said:

So you think Houston is gonna go with Mills for another year?

I'm not sure thats so wise when you have a shot at a guy who in a normal draft year might go #1 overall.   They  should go Stroud but there are at least one or two other QBs in this draft who I think would be an improvment on what they have now.

I guess they could draft Anderson and then take a QB in round 2 or stick with Mills.

The team has a lot of holes to fill so there may be some value in getting some young players drafted before bringing in the new QB.    I'm not sure that's the way I would go, but its possible.

What does "normal draft year" mean exactly??  

Are you implying that if Stroud was in last year's draft, or the year before's..... or perhaps next year's draft he would go #1 overall?   

 

[Ray_T 587]

8 hours ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

What does "normal draft year" mean exactly??  

Are you implying that if Stroud was in last year's draft, or the year before's..... or perhaps next year's draft he would go #1 overall?   

 

based on what I'm seeing in the scouting report I am saying there are definitely some years where he had that potential.

this is actually a pretty deep draft at the QB position.

in last years draft I dont know if he would have went #1 but he definitely would have been the first QB taken off the board.   but then again last year was a pretty weak year for the QB position.

 

[Gepetto 977]

14 hours ago, seafoam1 said:

I'm not familiar with the numbers. Are there some schools that are turning out first round drafted QBs that turn into NFL homeruns year after year? Like let's say, 3 current top 10 NFL QBs in the past 10 - 15 years?

 

Oklahoma

Baker Mayfield

Kyler Murray

Jalen Hurts

 

Clemson

DeShaun Watson

Trevor Lawrence

 

Cal

Aaron Rodgers

Jared Goff

 

Alabama

Tua

Mac Jones

Jalen Hurts

[weepaws 2,450]

I wouldn’t consider Mayfield or Murray or Goff or Tua and M Jones yearly homeruns.  

 

[DocNiner 44]

Some say they tradenthe #2 pick t another team. Don't think that team will be Indy since they're in the same division. A case can be made for them to go defense with Will Anderson or even Tyree Wilson. That's ok to build the defense but you still need to score points to win and Davis Mills isn't the answer at QB. I say they stay at #2 and take QB CJ Stroud. Then they take a WR and teammate of Stroud at Ohio State in Smith-Njigba. They'll have that connection with each other. Not saying they'll be Burrow and Chase but there will certainly be familiarity with each other.

[Gepetto 977]

15 hours ago, weepaws said:

I wouldn’t consider Mayfield or Murray or Goff or Tua and M Jones yearly homeruns.  

 

I answered the question that should have been asked.  Asking for home runs from the same school in that time frame is a near impossibility considering the number of division 1 college football programs.  I listed all starters in the NFL and all have had at, above, or near top 10 season(s) or led their team to the playoffs at least once since they were drafted.

[weepaws 2,450]

1 hour ago, Gepetto said:

I answered the question that should have been asked.  Asking for home runs from the same school in that time frame is a near impossibility considering the number of division 1 college football programs.  I listed all starters in the NFL and all have had at, above, or near top 10 season(s) or led their team to the playoffs at least once since they were drafted.

Near impossible, now that is the answer to the right question that was asked.  

Congrats.  

[JagFan 97]

On 4/21/2023 at 12:38 AM, Gepetto said:

 

Oklahoma

Baker Mayfield

Kyler Murray

Jalen Hurts

 

Clemson

DeShaun Watson

Trevor Lawrence

 

Cal

Aaron Rodgers

Jared Goff

 

Alabama

Tua

Mac Jones

Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts was Oklahoma, not Alabama.

[League Champion 1,593]

16 hours ago, DocNiner said:

Some say they tradenthe #2 pick t another team.

That would be the biggest mistake ever. How often are you in a position to draft a franchise QB and a very good prospect at that? Stroud is the pick there and it's not even a thought. 

[Gepetto 977]

4 hours ago, JagFan said:

Jalen Hurts was Oklahoma, not Alabama.

He was both, look it up. https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2023-02-12/jalen-hurts-college-football-career-stats-highlights-records

YEAR	GAMES	COMPLETIONS	ATTEMPTS	COMP. %	YARDS	Y/A	TD	INT	RATING
2016	15	240	382	62.8	2,780	7.3	23	9	139.1
2017	14	154	255	60.4	2,081	8.2	17	1	150.2
2018	13	51	70	72.9	765	10.9	8	2	196.7
2019	14	237	340	69.7	3,851	11.3	32	8	191.2

Where did Jalen Hurts go to college?

Jalen Hurts enrolled at Alabama, where he was the Crimson Tide's starting quarterback for two seasons, before playing as the team's backup as a junior. He then transferred to Oklahoma for his senior season, where he replaced Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray and Hurts produced a Heisman finalist season of his own.

[AxeElf 787]

3 hours ago, Gepetto said:

He was both

I'm a little surprised you had to explain that to a football fan.

[JagFan 97]

5 hours ago, Gepetto said:

He was both, look it up. https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2023-02-12/jalen-hurts-college-football-career-stats-highlights-records

YEAR	GAMES	COMPLETIONS	ATTEMPTS	COMP. %	YARDS	Y/A	TD	INT	RATING
2016	15	240	382	62.8	2,780	7.3	23	9	139.1
2017	14	154	255	60.4	2,081	8.2	17	1	150.2
2018	13	51	70	72.9	765	10.9	8	2	196.7
2019	14	237	340	69.7	3,851	11.3	32	8	191.2

Where did Jalen Hurts go to college?

Jalen Hurts enrolled at Alabama, where he was the Crimson Tide's starting quarterback for two seasons, before playing as the team's backup as a junior. He then transferred to Oklahoma for his senior season, where he replaced Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray and Hurts produced a Heisman finalist season of his own.

Yes he was.  And if that’s the logic behind that list, several of those guys should be relocated to the schools they started at…Mayfield, Murray, etc…

[Gepetto 977]

6 hours ago, JagFan said:

Yes he was.  And if that’s the logic behind that list, several of those guys should be relocated to the schools they started at…Mayfield, Murray, etc…

I don't think so.  Baker Mayfield only played his freshman year at Texas Tech.  So you want Texas Tech to be considered to produce Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes?  

Mayfield won the Heisman Trophy with Oklahoma and was selected 1st overall after playing the last three years of his college career at Oklahoma.

So, by your logic they should be relocated to the schools they started at: 

Texas Tech

Patrick Mahomes

Baker Mayfield

Texas Tech is a QB factory?

 

I think players that transfer need to be taken on a case by case basis.  Jalen Hurts I would say was successful at both Alabama and Oklahoma. 

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
*2016	Alabama	SEC	FR	QB	15	240	382	62.8	2780	7.3	7.4	23	9	139.1
*2017	Alabama	SEC	SO	QB	14	154	255	60.4	2081	8.2	9.3	17	1	150.2
*2018	Alabama	SEC	JR	QB	13	51	70	72.9	765	10.9	11.9	8	2	196.7
*2019	Oklahoma	Big 12	SR	QB	14	237	340	69.7	3851	11.3	12.2	32	8	191.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jalen-hurts-1.html

Baker Mayfield was only really successful at Oklahoma.

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
*2013	Texas Tech	Big 12	FR	QB	8	218	340	64.1	2315	6.8	6.3	12	9	127.7
*2015	Oklahoma	Big 12	SO	QB	13	269	395	68.1	3700	9.4	10.4	36	7	173.3
*2016	Oklahoma	Big 12	JR	QB	13	254	358	70.9	3965	11.1	12.3	40	8	196.4
*2017	Oklahoma	Big 12	SR	QB	14	285	404	70.5	4627	11.5	12.9	4

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/baker-mayfield-1.html

Joe Burrow was LSU's key QB one year, his Ohio State days are meaningless.  Your logic would credit Ohio State with producing Joe Burrow.

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
*2015	Ohio State	Big Ten	FR	QB
*2016	Ohio State	Big Ten	FR	QB	5	22	28	78.6	226	8.1	9.5	2	0	169.9
*2017	Ohio State	Big Ten	SO	QB	5	7	11	63.6	61	5.5	5.5	0	0	110.2
*2018	LSU	SEC	JR	QB	13	219	379	57.8	2894	7.6	7.9	16	5	133.2
*2019	LSU	SEC	SR	QB	15	402	527	76.3	5671	10.8	12

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/joe-burrow-1.html

I don't really want to get in some huge debate about this, just don't understand your point really.

[JagFan 97]

2 hours ago, Gepetto said:

I don't think so.  Baker Mayfield only played his freshman year at Texas Tech.  So you want Texas Tech to be considered to produce Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes?  

Mayfield won the Heisman Trophy with Oklahoma and was selected 1st overall after playing the last three years of his college career at Oklahoma.

So, by your logic they should be relocated to the schools they started at: 

Texas Tech

Patrick Mahomes

Baker Mayfield

Texas Tech is a QB factory?

 

I think players that transfer need to be taken on a case by case basis.  Jalen Hurts I would say was successful at both Alabama and Oklahoma. 

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
*2016	Alabama	SEC	FR	QB	15	240	382	62.8	2780	7.3	7.4	23	9	139.1
*2017	Alabama	SEC	SO	QB	14	154	255	60.4	2081	8.2	9.3	17	1	150.2
*2018	Alabama	SEC	JR	QB	13	51	70	72.9	765	10.9	11.9	8	2	196.7
*2019	Oklahoma	Big 12	SR	QB	14	237	340	69.7	3851	11.3	12.2	32	8	191.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jalen-hurts-1.html

Baker Mayfield was only really successful at Oklahoma.

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
*2013	Texas Tech	Big 12	FR	QB	8	218	340	64.1	2315	6.8	6.3	12	9	127.7
*2015	Oklahoma	Big 12	SO	QB	13	269	395	68.1	3700	9.4	10.4	36	7	173.3
*2016	Oklahoma	Big 12	JR	QB	13	254	358	70.9	3965	11.1	12.3	40	8	196.4
*2017	Oklahoma	Big 12	SR	QB	14	285	404	70.5	4627	11.5	12.9	4

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/baker-mayfield-1.html

Joe Burrow was LSU's key QB one year, his Ohio State days are meaningless.  Your logic would credit Ohio State with producing Joe Burrow.

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
*2015	Ohio State	Big Ten	FR	QB
*2016	Ohio State	Big Ten	FR	QB	5	22	28	78.6	226	8.1	9.5	2	0	169.9
*2017	Ohio State	Big Ten	SO	QB	5	7	11	63.6	61	5.5	5.5	0	0	110.2
*2018	LSU	SEC	JR	QB	13	219	379	57.8	2894	7.6	7.9	16	5	133.2
*2019	LSU	SEC	SR	QB	15	402	527	76.3	5671	10.8	12

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/joe-burrow-1.html

I don't really want to get in some huge debate about this, just don't understand your point really.

That made my head hurt

Im going to adjust my original statement from Alabama QBs being fools gold to Nick Saban QBs being fools gold.

I’ve enjoyed reading your posts for a long time, Gepetto…but please don’t make me read so much data again.

[weepaws 2,450]

1 hour ago, JagFan said:

That made my head hurt

Im going to adjust my original statement from Alabama QBs being fools gold to Nick Saban QBs being fools gold.

I’ve enjoyed reading your posts for a long time, Gepetto…but please don’t make me read so much data again.

Lol , it didn’t have to be that difficult. 

[seafoam1 1,878]

Wanna see what really hurts the head?

CJ Stroud S2 score = 18th percentile.

“Stroud scored 18,” an executive said. “That is like red alert, red alert, you can't take a guy like that. That is why I have Stroud as a bust. That in conjunction with the fact, name one Ohio State quarterback that's ever done it in the league.”

 

 

Bryce Young S2 score

Albert Breer of the MMQB leaked Young's score on April 13: 98, out of a perfect 99.

The Athletic's Joseph Person confirmed that score in April, adding that Kentucky's Will Levis — the only other player whose score was made public at the time — scored a 93. Bob McGinn of GoLongTD.com corroborated those reports with more leaked scores on Friday.

Young's score seems to indicate he can easily make the mental transition to the NFL — "We consider anything above the 80th percentile to be elite,” Ally told The Athletic — but how does his score compare to other notable quarterbacks in this year's class?

According to McGinn's report, here's how other 2023 quarterback prospects scored on the S2 in terms of percentiles, not actual scores.

MORE: Why latest NFL odds suggest Texans will pass on C.J. Stroud at No. 2

C.J. Stroud S2 score

• 18th percentile

Tanner McKee S2 score

• 99th percentile, per Mike Garafolo

Jake Haener S2 score

• 96th percentile

Will Levis S2 score

• 93rd percentile

Jaren Hall S2 score

• 93rd percentile

Clayton Tune S2 score

• 84th percentile

Anthony Richardson S2 score

• 79 percentile

Hendon Hooker S2 score

• 46th percentile

[jrokh 567]

Probably why Levis is the current favorite for the 2nd pick…

[weepaws 2,450]

Someone is going to be taken with that second pick.  

[taco breath 419]

3 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Someone is going to be taken with that second pick.  

who do you think it will be?

[League Champion 1,593]

God God, Stroud is borderline Retardded. 

I thought he was a no brainer at 2 but apparently he has no brain  

[weepaws 2,450]

2 hours ago, taco breath said:

who do you think it will be?

Someone.  I know who  it will not be, I can guarantee it, it won’t be the player taken with the first pick.

book it Dano. 

[AxeElf 787]

Somebody doesn't understand percentiles.

[seafoam1 1,878]

20 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Somebody doesn't understand percentiles.

Do you know how many people took the test this year? And what percentage of those scored less than any of those guys?

Well, they gave you the answer to the second question already. So....

[AxeElf 787]

19 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

Do you know how many people took the test this year? And what percentage of those scored less than any of those guys?

Well, they gave you the answer to the second question already. So....

I'm not sure what you're talking about here, but...

"Albert Breer of the MMQB leaked Young's score on April 13: 98, out of a perfect 99."

...and...

"Kentucky's Will Levis — the only other player whose score was made public at the time — scored a 93."

...are not accurate statements.

Those players did not score 98 and 93, respectively; their scores were at the 98th and 93rd percentiles, respectively--not the same thing.  And while scoring at the 99th percentile is the highest one can achieve, it isn't "perfect" so much as it is a recognition that there is no "perfect" on the percentile scale--there's always room for one better.

So whoever reported it these ways doesn't understand percentiles.