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GobbleDog

***The 149th Running of the Kentucky Derby***

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1) Hit Show  25-1                            11) Disarm  24-1

2) Verifying   15-1                           12) Jace's Road 31-1

3) Two Phil's  8-1                           13) Sun Thunder 29-1

4) Confidence Game   17-1            14) Angel Of Empire   4.5-1

5) Tapit Trice   4.5-1                            15) Forte Scratch

 6) Kingsbarns  10-1                          16) Raise Cain 30-1

7) Reincarnate   13-1                      17) Derma Sotogake   8-1

8)) Mage   17-1                                 18) Rocket Can   27-1

9) Skinner   Scratch                        19) Lord Miles Scratch

10) Practical Move Scratch          20) Continuar Scratch

                                                             21) Cyclone Mischief 29-1

                                                             22) Mandarin Hero 20-1

                                                              23) King Russell 30-1

"The sun shines bright on My Old Kentucky Home."  :banana:

odds updated 4pm Sat.  Post time 6:57 pm.

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How many of those horses do you think they might find dead before the race.  

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35 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

Was waiting for this thread.

Me too and watch it every year and can finally bet on it this year. Curious to see what horses the guys and gals on here like.

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Last year's Kentucky Derby was historic. Rich Strike who raced for small/unknown tracks only arrived the day before the Derby because another horse got scratched. The small time owners, trainer and jockey were just happy to be there. But after the final turn, Rich Strike was staring down the stretch behind two truly great horses in Epicenter and Zandon. Damn if he didn't run 'em both down. Happens once every 100 years.

At 80-1 Rich Strike was the second biggest upset in Derby history since 1913 (91-1 odds).  The payouts were sick.

                                  Win             Place           Show

#21 Rich Strike       $163.60     $74.20         $29.40

#3   Epicenter                               $7.40            $5.20

#10 Zandon                                                        $5.60

....................................................................................

$2 Exacta               $4,101

$0.50 Trifecta        $7,435

$1 Superfecta       $321,500

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38 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

That is a lot of horses for the race. There is one from Pennsylvania called PA something I don't even see on the list.

Angel of Empire

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2 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

Angel of Empire

Thanks and so that is the Pennsylvania horse. Like they name but not sure I'm betting on it. I'm actually betting on a few races now.

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2 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Thanks and so that is the Pennsylvania horse. Like they name but not sure I'm betting on it. I'm actually betting on a few races now.

Pa horse trained by Brad Cox

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56 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

That is a lot of horses for the race. There is one from Pennsylvania called PA something I don't even see on the list.

Wat?  There are always 20.

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12 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

Practical Move is my early pick

Cool thanks and like those odds too. I won't bet the favs.

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Time to do some figur'n.  Let's do this! Same qualifier as always - Eliminate any horse not finishing in the top 2 in the 5 major prep races. Accounts for 14 of last 20 winners (15 if not Medina Spirit dq in '21)

Santa Anita Derby

1. Practical Move scratched

2. Mandarin Hero

Arkansas Derby

1. Angel of Empire

2. King Russell

Blue Grass

1. Tapit Trice

2. Verifying

Florida Derby

1. Forte

2. Mage

Wood Memorial

1. Lord Miles scratched

2. Hit Show

.........................................................................

Down to 8, let's take out of the trash…

(34-1) Hit Show got 2nd in Wood Memorial with a best speed figure 99. Not in same league as others, and now has the worst spot on the track with #1 position.  Might as well shoot it now.

(44-1) King Russell got 2nd in the Arkansas as a 59-1 longshot with a best speed figure of 99.  A stunning result because it took FIVE races to break his maiden. King Russell couldn't win a greyhound race.

(29-1) Mandarin Hero got 2nd in the Santa Anita being the 4th favorite at 8-1 odds with a best speed figure 105. This Jap horse won 4 of first 5 in Japan before running in Santa Anita which explains the weird odds, nobody knew what to expect. Did well against good competition, but fact remains the horse has never won a graded race. Probably tastes good on rice though.

(22-1) Verifying got 2nd in Bluegrass matching a best speed figure 102. He raced and nearly won 4 graded stakes.  Decent horse – good trainer, but now has the second worst spot at #2 position.  Be a great bet in better position, but won't risk it. Seen too many elites try and fail.

(18-1) Mage got 2nd in Florida with a best speed figure 102. Mage was the second favorite at 5-1 odds at Florida which is surprising given how little Mage had done. Were trainers avoiding destruction by Forte.?. Regardless, all anyone needs to know is never raced as a two-year old Curse of Apollo… only 1882 Apollo and 2018 Justify. I don’t mess with black magic.

...............................................................................

Down to 3, time to guess…

(5-1) Tapit Trice won the Bluegrass as a big favorite with a best speed figure 103. Also won grade 3 race. Not the greatest resume. Pletcher trainer, but last Bluegrass winner to take Derby…  Strike the Gold 1991. The real Tapit finished 9th in ‘04 Derby. Great-grand son can share the memory.

(5-1) Angel of Empire won the Arkansas as 4th favorite with 5-1 odds, with a best speed figure of 106. Won a Grade 2 putting him on the map, but nobody expected much before that. Years ago I’d have dumped this Pennsylvanian flee-bag for not being bred in the great state of Kentucky, but that’s cost me too many times.  Seems like every five years or so, an Arkansas Derby horse wins the Kentucky Derby.  If this in-bred over-achieving Pennsylvanian does it, so be it.

...........................................................................................

Therefore by process of elimination the 2023 Kentucky Derby Winner is…

(4.5-1) Forte won the Florida Derby as a monster 0.3-1 favorite - doesn’t get much bigger than that. Had speed figure of 104, down from previous bests of 105 and 106.  The talent was obvious early winning maiden with 91 speed, and only raced in Graded Stakes ever since. Took 4th place, but then won everything after including three Grade 1’s.  Pletcher trainer, Ortiz jockey, great post position.

8 of last 15 Kentucky Derby winners either raced in the Florida Derby or Santa Anita Derby (9 if Medina Spirit not dq’d).  Seems Florida and Santa Anita attribute 50%+ of Derby winners, while other prep races take what’s left. But this year’s Santa Anita winner is scratched (my original pick to win the Derby) and 2nd place is from stinkin Japan. Florida’s 2nd place isn’t much of a horse and fighting Apollo Curse.

I didn’t want to pick the dead favorite, but here we are. However, this makes me feel better - In 2013 Derby qualification rules changed to a point system. Prior, speedster horses winning short races qualified and they wore out Derby favorites chasing them, and none won except longshots down the stretch. Before 2013 no favorite had won the Kentucky Derby in over 20 years. All that changed once speedsters were eliminated. In 2013, '14, '15, '16, '17 and '18.... the favorite won every Derby.

Good luck gentlemen. :banana:

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2 hours ago, Alias Detective said:

Practical Move is my early pick

That kiss of death was quick.

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9 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Me too and watch it every year and can finally bet on it this year. Curious to see what horses the guys and gals on here like.

I pretend to be into horse racing once or twice a year and bet.  No idea what I am betting but it is fun enough for a second.  

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1 minute ago, listen2me 23 said:

I pretend to be into horse racing once or twice a year and bet.  No idea what I am betting but it is fun enough for a second.  

Thanks and I don't know a lot and check there pass races to see how they finished, I like to take a 6-1 to 10-1 if the horses last couple race was good. I won't bet on a fav.

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25 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Thanks and I don't know a lot and check there pass races to see how they finished, I like to take a 6-1 to 10-1 if the horses last couple race was good. I won't bet on a fav.

I used to automatically eliminate the Derby fav because they went on a 20+ year drought... until 2013. I still think it's smart to look for better value. Even Secretariat needed talent and luck because of the crowded 20 horse field.

Thought 10-1 Practical Move was good value, until he got scratched. It's a weird Derby... not the crazy talent we're used to. Forte's resume towers the field. If there was ever a year to bet the fav, it might be this year.

Might get better odds than deserved after an 80-1 longshot won last year. Derby money is full of crazy people money, not sharps.

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5 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

I used to automatically eliminate the Derby fav because they went on a 20+ year drought... until 2013. I still think it's smart to look for better value. Even Secretariat needed talent and luck because of the crowded 20 horse field.

Thought 10-1 Practical Move at was good value, until he got scratched. It's a weird Derby... not the crazy talent we're used to. Forte's resume towers the field. If there was ever a year to bet the fav, it might be this year.

That sucks about Practical Move seems Alias like him as well. If Forte doesn't go lower then 5-1 I will bet him and maybe the Pennsylvania horse as well. Thank you for your input! Ps. I will be thinking Matt Forte lol.

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2 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

That sucks about Practical Move seems Alias like him as well. If Forte doesn't go lower then 5-1 I will bet him and maybe the Pennsylvania horse as well. Thank you for your input! Ps. I will be thinking Matt Forte lol.

Hes guaranteed to go lower than 5:1 as the public loves to pile on the favorite. Barring bad news.  And 20 horses. No offense, you sure you've done this before? 

ETA: He's alread 3:1 now. But yeah, go Matt!  

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Um. Jinx.  :mellow:

Starting to hear rumors of a Forte scratch (stumbled in practice?), and possibly others.  Entry is locked, no more eligibles. Going to be one of the few times we dont have 20 horses. 

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12 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

That is a lot of horses for the race. There is one from Pennsylvania called PA something I don't even see on the list.

 

12 hours ago, Alias Detective said:

Angel of Empire

Include this horse in your boxes and keys, especially if Forte scratches.  

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Tapit Trice and Two Phil's are the other two that are getting a lot of talk with Practical Move scratched, which yeah, matches the odds.

If Pletcher does NOT announce scratch of Forte tomorrow, watch the lines move and bet the opposite.  Either way I think AoE moves up and TT and 2 Phil's.  I like TT over 2P. 

 

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3 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

I pretend to be into horse racing once or twice a year and bet.  No idea what I am betting but it is fun enough for a second.  

Here are the two easiest bets: 

If you like a single horse (the name, how it looks, if it takes a crap during the walkout) bet 1x to win, 2x to place and 3x to show on that horse. If it finishes in the top 3 you usually make your money back or better. 

If you like 2 horses, exacta box them. If they come in 1st and 2nd in any order you win plus money.  

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9 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

I pretend to be into horse racing once or twice a year and bet.  No idea what I am betting but it is fun enough for a second.  

Actually 2 minutes :cheers:

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Lord Miles scratched because trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. suspended after two of his horses died mysteriously after their races.  Two other horses euthanized after injury this past week.  :o

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Skinner scratched.  It's official, we won't have a full 20 horses.  

Quote

 

Churchill Downs said with Skinner out, there will now just be 19 starters, instead of the normal 20.  

Officials said the last time this many horses were scratched from the Derby was 2015, when 22 horses entered the race.

Along with abnormally high scratches, there have been an unusual number of horse deaths this week, as well. Four horses have died after arriving at Churchill Downs since Opening Night last Saturday.

 

 

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10 hours ago, Horseman said:

Hes guaranteed to go lower than 5:1 as the public loves to pile on the favorite. Barring bad news.  And 20 horses. No offense, you sure you've done this before? 

ETA: He's alread 3:1 now. But yeah, go Matt!  

I use to bet years ago and did alright and am betting again now on them. I thought he was 5-1 cause I just quick glance at it. I seen long shots odds go down too a lot towards post time. Anyways like I said earlier no expert but know enough. I do appreciate all your post on the Derby.

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1 hour ago, Ron 'Tator Salad' White said:

What will Johnnys hat be this year? 

he is a buzz kill  and reason for the mute button.

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10 hours ago, Horseman said:

Hes guaranteed to go lower than 5:1 as the public loves to pile on the favorite.

Some public will bet for a repeat last year's 80-1 fortune maker.  The money bet on no-chance Derby horses is staggering. All the pools are rich.

At the Florida Derby Forte was a 0.3 - 1 favorite. A dollar wins $0.30. Ridiculous. Apparently no competition because 10 of 11 other horses had double digit odds.

At the Derby, Forte shouldn't get that low. If any Derby horse gets that low - toss 'em. Not enough to justify the risk of a 20-horse field.

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On 5/4/2023 at 12:33 PM, weepaws said:

How many of those horses do you think they might find dead before the race.  

Churchill downer

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4 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Some public will bet for a repeat last year's 80-1 fortune maker.  The money bet on no-chance Derby horses is staggering. All the pools are rich.

At the Florida Derby Forte was a 0.3 - 1 favorite. A dollar wins $0.30. Ridiculous. Apparently no competition because 10 of 11 other horses had double digit odds.

At the Derby, Forte shouldn't get that low. If any Derby horse gets that low - toss 'em. Not enough to justify the risk of a 20-horse field.

Yep.  I think I'm tossing Forte anyway with all the buzz although it's been quite since Fletcher's press conference.  That should be a sure sign that he will win and I will lose, lol.

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4 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Some public will bet for a repeat last year's 80-1 fortune maker.  The money bet on no-chance Derby horses is staggering. All the pools are rich.

At the Florida Derby Forte was a 0.3 - 1 favorite. A dollar wins $0.30. Ridiculous. Apparently no competition because 10 of 11 other horses had double digit odds.

At the Derby, Forte shouldn't get that low. If any Derby horse gets that low - toss 'em. Not enough to justify the risk of a 20-horse field.

Good post and yea I wont bet on anything lower then 5-1, also don't like betting on any horses over 10-1 much but will do that sometimes.

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'13 fav won, 5.4 odds

'14 fav won, 2.5 odds

'15 fav won, 2.9 odds

'16 fav won, 2.3 odds

'17 fav won, 4.7 odds

'18 fav won, 2.9 odds

'19 fav lost (4th), had 4.0 odds

'20 fav lost (2nd), had 0.7 odds - dang, remember Tiz The Law

'21 fav lost (3rd), had 2.9 odds

'22 fav lost (2nd), had 4.1 odds

 

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17 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

'13 fav won, 5.4 odds

'14 fav won, 2.5 odds

'15 fav won, 2.9 odds

'16 fav won, 2.3 odds

'17 fav won, 4.7 odds

'18 fav won, 2.9 odds

'19 fav lost (4th), had 4.0 odds

'20 fav lost (2nd), had 0.7 odds - dang, remember Tiz The Law

'21 fav lost (3rd), had 2.9 odds

'22 fav lost (2nd), had 4.1 odds

 

Maximum Security disqualification in 2019 to kick off this losing favorites was the worst bad beat of my life.  Had 5K+ of winning tickets, taking selfies in the stands, and they announce it's contested.  After the disqualification went to get a beer and the guy in line behind me won big because of it.  I wanted to punch him in the face.

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Mandarin Hero is the fastest horse in this field, but he's not in a great starting position.

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