Kenny Pickett, Brock Purdy, Trey Lance

[Gepetto 979]

Which of these players, if any, can have top 15 QB numbers in 2023 and/or a successful NFL career as a starter?

I like what I saw from some of Pickett's throws late in the season, and Purdy already put up top QB numbers in his half season of starts.

[jrokh 567]

29 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

Which of these players, if any, can have top 15 QB numbers in 2023 and/or a successful NFL career as a starter?

I like what I saw from some of Pickett's throws late in the season, and Purdy already put up top QB numbers in his half season of starts.

Rank em 1: Purdy. 2:Pickett 3: Lance. Lance is a very distant third. He will likely have to be traded to have much value…

[weepaws 2,452]

1. Pickett. 

2. One of the Niners qbs.  

[AxeElf 787]

I would guess Pickett too; the 49ers are more invested in the run game, and Pickett has veterans Diontae Johnson and now Allen Robinson to go with prodigy George Pickens.  Pickett now has a year of experience under his belt, while Purdy and Lance are still basically rookies.

[League Champion 1,593]

If Lance can ever get the starting job it's him all day. He has the ceiling and running ability to be a fantasy MONSTER. 

But right now I'd rank them Pickett, Purdy & Lance. I'm still not completely sold on Purdy. 

[polecatt 399]

I don't know, hard to say...

I think Brock Purdy is basically Gardner Minshew 2.0, he can dink and dunk with the best of them, but he's limited

Pickett, he's in a great spot, but I'm not sure he has the talent

Trey Lance, I think if any of these guys is gonna blow up and be a super star fantasy QB, it's got to be him, but he also seems like the one to be a complete and total bust

[LaChup 154]

If I had to Pickett, I'm Purdy sure Trey is Lance on that list.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

18 hours ago, Gepetto said:

Which of these players, if any, can have top 15 QB numbers in 2023 and/or a successful NFL career as a starter?

I like what I saw from some of Pickett's throws late in the season, and Purdy already put up top QB numbers in his half season of starts.

Judging by this, I'm thinking that it's Pickett and none of the guys in San Fran.  We all know that Darnold sucks... so if there's no differentiation between him, the guy who can't get/stay on the field, and Mr. Irrelevant, then neither are that good.

[seafoam1 1,878]

Lance all day. Please trade him.

[Ray_T 587]

On 5/11/2023 at 1:23 PM, League Champion said:

If Lance can ever get the starting job it's him all day. He has the ceiling and running ability to be a fantasy MONSTER. 

But right now I'd rank them Pickett, Purdy & Lance. I'm still not completely sold on Purdy. 

obviously it cant be BOTH Lance and Purdy unless a trade happens.

while that might happen,  there is no guarantee.   obviously whoever is starting has value, and whoever isnt doesnt.    its that simple.

for fantasy purposes this is why I rank Pickett highest (at least for this year) because there is not much uncertainty.  hes the guy there.

as we get closer to day 1 once we find out who is starting day 1 in san fran, that player likely has more value than Pickett.   but right now with the uncertainty I rank both below pickett untill a starter is named.

 

[Gepetto 979]

29 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

obviously it cant be BOTH Lance and Purdy unless a trade happens.

while that might happen,  there is no guarantee.   obviously whoever is starting has value, and whoever isnt doesnt.    its that simple.

for fantasy purposes this is why I rank Pickett highest (at least for this year) because there is not much uncertainty.  hes the guy there.

as we get closer to day 1 once we find out who is starting day 1 in san fran, that player likely has more value than Pickett.   but right now with the uncertainty I rank both below pickett untill a starter is named.

 

That seems to be good reasoning. 

Thank you and everyone else that contributed an answer.

[Gepetto 979]

7 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Judging by this, I'm thinking that it's Pickett and none of the guys in San Fran.  We all know that Darnold sucks... so if there's no differentiation between him, the guy who can't get/stay on the field, and Mr. Irrelevant, then neither are that good.

Well we know that their head coach is not a dependable source as we've seen Darnold and Purdy play and to a lesser extent we've seen Trey Lance play too.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

6 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

Well we know that their head coach is not a dependable source as we've seen Darnold and Purdy play and to a lesser extent we've seen Trey Lance play too.

Maybe.  Maybe not.  Why wouldn't we though (think he's a dependable source)?  Don't coaches usually back their guy?  He went out on a limb and traded up for Lance (or was Lance not his call?).  You don't think he'd say something like "As soon as Trey is ready to go, we're excited to see him win us some games"?  That's what we'd expect.  We wouldn't expect him to say that Mr. Irrelevant, a confirmed backup, and a top 3 overall pick are on the same plane, right?

[Gepetto 979]

1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Maybe.  Maybe not.  Why wouldn't we though?  Don't coaches usually back their guy?  He went out on a limb and traded up for Lance (or was Lance not his call?).  You don't think he'd say something like "As soon as Trey is ready to go, we're excited to see him win us some games"?  That's what we'd expect.  We wouldn't expect him to say that Mr. Irrelevant, a confirmed backup, and a top 3 overall pick are on the same plane, right?

But that's what he's saying and I don't think it makes sense.  I think he's trying to keep all of them motivated to compete for the #1 spot so they all give it everything they've got everyday and it will be determined in practice who wins the starting job based on the evaluation of their practices and preseason games.

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

7 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

But that's what he's saying and I don't think it makes sense.

I agree that it doesn't make sense... but maybe it does.  Maybe he's in C.Y.A. mode.  I'm guessing that he knows he has a bust in Lance and that there's a good chance Purdy ends up on top.  By saying what he is saying, he believes that Purdy will be named the starter and then he can come out and say "I told you they were all franchise-type QB's, we just think Purdy is the most ready right now".  He does that to make people think that Lance doesn't suck and might trade for him.  At that point he can say, "I expect he'll be great in [insert new team]".  When it's proven he sucks, he can say, "Well, must be bad coaching", and push off the blame.

Of course, I'm speculating.

One thing that history has shown us is that coaches always back their guy (QB), until it's been proven on the world stage that they're wrong.  He has no reason to not back Lance and everyone would listen... but he didn't.  That's telling to me.

[Gepetto 979]

Lance doesn't suck and won't suck, he'll be really good and Kyle Shanahan thinks highly of him including his work ethic.

[weepaws 2,452]

49 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

obviously it cant be BOTH Lance and Purdy unless a trade happens.

while that might happen,  there is no guarantee.   obviously whoever is starting has value, and whoever isnt doesnt.    its that simple.

for fantasy purposes this is why I rank Pickett highest (at least for this year) because there is not much uncertainty.  hes the guy there.

as we get closer to day 1 once we find out who is starting day 1 in san fran, that player likely has more value than Pickett.   but right now with the uncertainty I rank both below pickett untill a starter is named.

 

I disagree with the last line, no matter which one starts for the Niners , I would still pick Pickett.  

[weepaws 2,452]

I think Darnold starts week one for the Niners.  

[jrokh 567]

Purdy had a 65.6 Total QBR in his 8 starts. He didn't play enough to qualify, but if he did that would've been good for 5th, behind only Mahomes, Allen, Tua, and Hurts. If he's healthy it's his job, and his coach already said he should be good for training camp. Ya'll are tripping...

[League Champion 1,593]

4 hours ago, Ray_T said:

obviously it cant be BOTH Lance and Purdy unless a trade happens.

Agree, someone has to go. They have to either commit to Lance or admit that they made a mistake and trade him for pennies on the dollar 

[polecatt 399]

12 hours ago, jrokh said:

Purdy had a 65.6 Total QBR in his 8 starts. He didn't play enough to qualify, but if he did that would've been good for 5th, behind only Mahomes, Allen, Tua, and Hurts. If he's healthy it's his job, and his coach already said he should be good for training camp. Ya'll are tripping...

Yeah, that kind of caught up to him against Philly.

Like I said above, he's Gardner Minshew 2.0.  He's a good back up, and can run the offense if needed for a few games, but he's not a long term solution.

[DocNiner 44]

For me, being a 49er Homer, I'm going to put Trey Lance first, Kenny Pickett second and Brock Purdy number 3. I'll tell you why. Yes, Purdy was the darling QB in the NFL once he took over the starting job. Then he had the devastating injury to his UCL that has required off-season surgery. While he may start throwing soon it's still a significant injury to his throwing arm and we don't know how that's going to impact his ability to throw well and be accurate. He may never get back to the point of how he was throwing pre-injury and while some may feel he has the backing of his teammates and rightfully so there's too much uncertainty to how he'll play in the future. Yeah I'd be kk with him leading the team but for now he stay at #3. Now for Kenny Pickett, he has a year under his belt, better knowledge of  the offense and synced in with his receivers. I feel he's just a QB2 at this point but could change once the season starts. Now for Trey Lance, the 9ers braintrust must have thought enough about Lance that they basically mortgaged the farm to get him. To not see if he can play would be a huge embarrassment to the organization. YES he hasn't played much but neither has Jordan Love. I think Lance will come to OTA's and training camp.and show the organization why they moved up so high to get him. For what they spent you.have to let the guy get a chance to play to see if he has the capability to be the guy they envisioned when the drafted him. I'll go out on a limb and say he's going to be the guy in San Fran when the season starts. So what do they do with Purdy then and still have Darnold as well? I say they should hold on to him for now in case another injury occurs to one of our QBs. Seem like we have had bad luck in that area recently. If Lance is playing well then they could look at a possible trade of Purdy to another team but given our luck I say hold on to him cause we know he can play it's just how well he'll play post-injury.

[League Champion 1,593]

19 minutes ago, polecatt said:

Yeah, that kind of caught up to him against Philly.

Like I said above, he's Gardner Minshew 2.0.  He's a good back up, and can run the offense if needed for a few games, but he's not a long term solution.

I kinda agree. The sample size wasn't the longest. He was more of a game manager type. I didn't see anything all that special but ok. 

[jrokh 567]

2 hours ago, polecatt said:

Yeah, that kind of caught up to him against Philly.

Like I said above, he's Gardner Minshew 2.0.  He's a good back up, and can run the offense if needed for a few games, but he's not a long term solution.

The Gardner Minshew comparison is lazy. Purdy won 2 playoff games last year and played well. Minshew has never thrown a pass in the post-season. In Minshew's 2 years in Jax, where he actually played, his QBR was 44.6 and 44.0, respectively. Purdy's was 65.6. It's not even remotely close as a comparison. Lazy. As for it catching up to him in Philly, he attempted 4 passes before he got knocked out of the game. gimme a break... If you are talking Dynasty or maybe even keeper, then yeah, I could see Pickett being more valuable long term. Purdy could eventually fade. If he's healthy (still a legitimate question). He is easily the best option of the three. Shanahan's not stupid, despite the desperation of niners fans trying to justify the disastrous Trey Lance trade....

[Ray_T 587]

19 hours ago, weepaws said:

I disagree with the last line, no matter which one starts for the Niners , I would still pick Pickett.  

hey thats your right.   I actually liked pickett a lot, but he hasnt shown a ton in his first year.     While that isnt unusual its tough to rate him higher than a guy who put up significant fantasy points in his first 8 starts (purdy)

ditto for lance even though lance has been less impressive than purdy, as a fantasy QB his running ability makes up for the shortfall in his throwing so far in his career.

so if they are playing and healthy I do rate them both higher than picket for this year.

I do think pickett has a far higher ceiling than what we have seen so far.   but the real question is whether he can realize that potential.   Lots of QB come into this league with tons of potential and some make it and some dont.   but when you see a guy who has produced at a good level early its hard to rank him below a guy like Pickett who has been mediocre so far.

 

in dynasty leagues the question is a bit harder to answer because I do think Pickett has more room to improve than the other guys but this isnt a dynasty league question.  this is a who is best for this year question and I think whoever starts for San Fran probably will be that guy.  problem is we dont know who that will be at this time.

someone earlier or on another thread suggested Purdy is a dink and dunk QB.    In the games I saw that did not appear to be the case.  he made some deep throws work for him so there is a bit more there.

granted I only saw a couple games.   and I'm no homer.  I dont really love san fran.   I like em a bit but really dont like Shanny.   dont get me wrong, I fully respect what Shanny has done as coach.  I just dont think much of him as a person and in terms of the way he runs his ship.   but he does get results and for that reason I do think that whoever is the starter will probably put up better numbers than Pickett (at least for this year)   but both QB's are ranked lower until we know who the starter will be.  at that point the order should be:

1) whoever starts in San Fran

2) pickett

3) whoever is not starting in San Fran.

 

the only way this order changes is if San Fran trades one of their QB and even then the order may or may not change depending on where that QB goes to play.

[polecatt 399]

4 hours ago, jrokh said:

The Gardner Minshew comparison is lazy. Purdy won 2 playoff games last year and played well. Minshew has never thrown a pass in the post-season. In Minshew's 2 years in Jax, where he actually played, his QBR was 44.6 and 44.0, respectively. Purdy's was 65.6. It's not even remotely close as a comparison. Lazy. As for it catching up to him in Philly, he attempted 4 passes before he got knocked out of the game. gimme a break... If you are talking Dynasty or maybe even keeper, then yeah, I could see Pickett being more valuable long term. Purdy could eventually fade. If he's healthy (still a legitimate question). He is easily the best option of the three. Shanahan's not stupid, despite the desperation of niners fans trying to justify the disastrous Trey Lance trade....

Okay, he's like Cooper Rush then, better comparison? Cooper looked like Pro Bowler too for a few games until he played the eagles lol

Brock was very mediocre against the Cowboys the game before where he only passed for 200 and no TDs.

He put up good numbers against mostly bad teams who were already on cruise control at the end of the regular season. Against good, playoff teams with better defenses, he's below average. That makes him a B level streaming option at best.

[jrokh 567]

28 minutes ago, polecatt said:

Okay, he's like Cooper Rush then, better comparison? Cooper looked like Pro Bowler too for a few games until he played the eagles lol

Brock was very mediocre against the Cowboys the game before where he only passed for 200 and no TDs.

He put up good numbers against mostly bad teams who were already on cruise control at the end of the regular season. Against good, playoff teams with better defenses, he's below average. That makes him a B level streaming option at best.

A B-level player with CMC, Kittle, Deebo, and Aiyuk to throw to is still better than Pickett…

[Gepetto 979]

In Purdy's eight starts where he wasn't injured, he didn't have one bad game.  0 losses.  Never more interceptions than touchdowns.  Multiple touchdowns in 7 of 8 games.  He had a strong arm already coming out of college.  Reports are the UCL tear in his elbow after surgery and therapy will be a full recovery.  I think SF will keep both rostered.  I don't know who will start.

2022 NFL passing leaders

Yards per Attempt

1. 8.9 Tua

2. 8.1 Mahomes

3. 8.1 Brock Purdy

4. 8.0 Jalen Hurts

 

Quarterback Rating

1. 107.3 Brock Purdy 

2. 105.5 Tua

3. 105.2 Mahomes

4. 103.0 Jimmy G

5. 101.5 Jalen Hurts

6. 100.9 Geno Smith

7. 100.8 Joe Burrow

8.  99.3 Jared Goff

10. 96.6 Josh Allen

11. 95.2 Trevor Lawrence

12. 95.2 Andy Dalton

13. 94.6 Ryan Tannehill

14. 93.2 Justin Herbert

15. 92.5 Kirk Cousins

16. 92.5 Daniel Jones

17. 91.1 Aaron Rodgers

18. 91.1 Lamar Jackson

19. 91.1 Dak Prescott

20.. 90.7 Tom Brady

 

[Ray_T 587]

2 hours ago, jrokh said:

A B-level player with CMC, Kittle, Deebo, and Aiyuk to throw to is still better than Pickett…

agreed.  he probably puts up  a level numbers because of the supporting cast (if he does indeed start)

[weepaws 2,452]

Purdy was fantastic last season, I’ll take Pickett.   I like Steelers players more this season than I did last season.  

[League Champion 1,593]

Knowing what we know now, If I was starting a franchise today I'd want Pickett. Lance is all upside, no floor. I feel like Purdy caught lightning in a bottle, there's still nothing great about his game or skillet. 

I don't think any of the 3 will be great but Pickett looks like an NFL QB to me. I think he's just going to get better. 

[Gepetto 979]

Any thoughts on Jordan Love?  I've read he has great skills and is loved by teammates because he's a good dude. 

[AxeElf 787]

34 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

Any thoughts on Jordan Love?  I've read he has great skills and is loved by teammates because he's a good dude. 

He has a solid run game in support and a pair of talented second-year WRs, but it's hard to imagine Love being much more than a low-end QB2.

[weepaws 2,452]

J Love is going to be a good one to stream.  

[League Champion 1,593]

6 hours ago, AxeElf said:

He has a solid run game in support and a pair of talented second-year WRs, but it's hard to imagine Love being much more than a low-end QB2.

I totally agree. He's talented but still super raw. I can't imagine that the Packers would ask much from him. This could be a good time to get back on the Dillon train, I have a feeling that they're going to wear both running backs out. Hopefully Musgrave contributes year 1. 

[polecatt 399]

On 5/13/2023 at 6:04 PM, Ray_T said:

agreed.  he probably puts up  a level numbers because of the supporting cast (if he does indeed start)

A level numbers? Like 4500+ yards and 35+TDs?

For a B level SF QB?

I think about the last 49ers QB to do that was Steve Young lol

[Ray_T 587]

1 hour ago, polecatt said:

A level numbers? Like 4500+ yards and 35+TDs?

For a B level SF QB?

I think about the last 49ers QB to do that was Steve Young lol

well, it is possible.   sample size is still too small for him to be sure but most QB improve in year 2 compared to year 1 so based on what we have seen so far, there seems to be good potential here if he does start.    but It wouldnt surprise me if hes in the high end #2 range or low end #1 range.  in most formats if hes your #2 QB and ends up being your starter, youve done well.

problem is we have 2 starting calibre QB and either could theoretically start and no starter has been named.   so its either low end #1/high end #2 or bust if hes not named the starter.   thats a tough pill to swallow if you paid the price of a #1 QB (even a low end #1)

[GobbleDog 815]

On 5/11/2023 at 6:59 PM, polecatt said:

Pickett, he's in a great spot, but I'm not sure he has the talent

What clued you in?  13 games... 63% completion with 7 tds / 9 ints

All rookie QBs stink, but they usually show some glimpse of NFL promise. Not Pickett. Steelers are gonna be bad.

[Ray_T 587]

33 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

What clued you in?  13 games... 63% completion with 7 tds / 9 ints

All rookie QBs stink, but they usually show some glimpse of NFL promise. Not Pickett. Steelers are gonna be bad.

well, with Pickett, he showed enough that hes not gonna be shown the bench. (not yet anyhow).   his completion percentage is solid.  we just need a few things to change if hes gonna progress:

1) the average depth of throw should increase without a drop in completion Percentage.   This should result in more yardage on roughly the same number of throws.

2)  more TD's less INT    This is the key metric.   QB who throw more INT than TD dont last long in this league.   you can tolerate it for a rookie season but Year 2 you want to see some progress on this.    

3) more efficiency on third downs.

 

if you see improvement in 2 out of the above 3 areas, hes likely still on an upward trajectory.   so even if the stats dont blow you away, you will need to continue to be patient.

[weepaws 2,452]

I think Pickett can improve over his rookie season, and I expect it.