Early keeper advice

[jeffkomlo 19]

Can keep 8 players this year in 12 team PPR

Keeping

L.Jackson QB

D. Henry RB

K.  Walker RB

Pitts TE

Higgins WR

Here's who's left: Dotson WR, Pittman WR, M. Thomas WR, Thielen WR

can only keep 3, thoughts?

1.  

[weepaws 2,452]

I wouldn’t keep M Thomas.  

[jeffkomlo 19]

thanks

[makindollaz 40]

I’d keep Pittman & Dotson, and coin flip the other 2.  I don’t trust Thomas much at all.

[taco breath 419]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

I wouldn’t keep M Thomas.  

i would, his ceiling is huge.

[Ray_T 587]

Pittman for sure.

Thomas has huge upside, but also hasnt been healthy for some time.   

Dotson also has huge upside coming off a rookie season of just over 500 yards receiving.    I"m guessing he puts up at least 7 or 800 yards but has an upside of 1000+ which he may or may not require another year to achieve (assuming good health)

But Thelan is most definitely at or near his expiry date.  hes been borderline fantasy relevant for the last couple years and I dont see that improving in Carolina by all that much.

if these are the only choices I pick Pittman, Thomas and Dotson.

Thelan is borderline., and even though he outperformed Thomas I'd rather shoot for the moon and hope he can finally have a healthy season.   if he does, it could be championship time.   those are the kind of risks worth taking.

 

[weepaws 2,452]

Thielen will be the wr1 on the Panthers.  Not that going to make it a great play, but his ceiling is more than five games.  

OP I would keep Thielen 

[Super Cubs 132]

Outside of Higgins I'm not overly sold on any of the other WRs.  You got two unproven rookie QBs with the Colts and Panthers. No clue about the QB situation in Washington. Thielen and Thomas are both old.  Thomas has not been healthy in two seasons.  That said keep Pittman, Dotson, and Thielen.  

Henry is old and has a lot of miles on the tires. I would put out feelers and see what I can get for him.

[weepaws 2,452]

2 hours ago, Super Cubs said:

Outside of Higgins I'm not overly sold on any of the other WRs.  You got two unproven rookie QBs with the Colts and Panthers. No clue about the QB situation in Washington. Thielen and Thomas are both old.  Thomas has not been healthy in two seasons.  That said keep Pittman, Dotson, and Thielen.  

Henry is old and has a lot of miles on the tires. I would put out feelers and see what I can get for him.

That’s why the OP didn’t have Higgins listed with the others.   

I do agree about Henry , this the season I’m moving him down to a late first rd pick, of course talking  about a 14 team league, not one of those lesser ten team leagues. 

[nobody 2,032]

You can cut Thielen or Michael Thomas and it won't matter.  

I'd cut Thomas.  A 30 year old receiver that isn't motivated to stay on the field (until next year probably when it'll be a contract year)

[weepaws 2,452]

It will matter, don’t cut the player that will produce the more ff  points, that’s going to be Thielen.  

[Ray_T 587]

On 5/28/2023 at 2:52 PM, Super Cubs said:

Outside of Higgins I'm not overly sold on any of the other WRs.  You got two unproven rookie QBs with the Colts and Panthers. No clue about the QB situation in Washington. Thielen and Thomas are both old.  Thomas has not been healthy in two seasons.  That said keep Pittman, Dotson, and Thielen.  

Henry is old and has a lot of miles on the tires. I would put out feelers and see what I can get for him.

I am pretty sure Henry has one more good  year left.

Not sure I'd bet on him after this year.   its dicey, but I do think hes fantasy worthy for one last draft.

I like Pittman.  hes a young player on the rise and hes already arrived.   a 1000 yard season and a second season close to 1000 where if he played the full season likely hits 1000.   though the QB situation isnt as steady as you'd like so thats a negative.

I think hes lowside WR3 but has WR1 upside.     but draft him as a WR2.

I do love Dotson.  500 yards over 12 games as a rookie.   projects to wr3/4 numbers if he plays full season.  I have to think he will get better.   though once again the QB situation is concerning.  not sure if Howell is good enough to support a significant breakout.   I think hes a WR3 at the end of the day.   if Howell breaks out hes WR2 with a little more upside. 

honestly hes a player you want if you are in a rebuild, this team could challenge for something more.  you might be able to trade dotson for a more established WR to a team in rebuild mode.   something you wouldnt be able to do with Thelien.

Thomas I'll admit I"m not a huge fan but in his couple healthy games he at least showed he can still play.    with him it all really depends on his health, but if hes your 3rd WR behind Pittman and Higgins I really think the risk isnt terrible.   you can probably get thelien back in the draft (or auction)if you really want him  I cant see a lot of teams banging down the door to get the guy.   His time has come.   if hes a 700=800 yard WR and hes on the wrong side of 30, there is no need to overvalue him.   there are probably a half dozen guys like him available in the draft or on the wire.    It pains me to say that... I used to be a fan of his.   but I just dont see the same things in his game that made him a star early in his career.

[weepaws 2,452]

On paper the Titans look like an awful offensive team, I think it’s going to be a tough season for Henry.  I’ve just started working on my personal rankings, and right now I have Henry listed around 9th.  I just started today, so I need to change my opinion about Henry, I don’t think he’s going to be a rd one pick for me.   In my full ppr I even have N Harris one spot ahead of him, I’m glad it’s just May   

14 team half ppr/ 14 team full ppr.  

[polecatt 399]

I would keep Dotson and Pittman definitely due to their youth and upside.

Theilen or Thomas, that's a tough call. It basically comes down to, do you want high floor or a high ceiling? 

Theilen probably doesn't have more upside than a flex option, but at worst he will be a guy you're glad you have on the bench when you need him.

Thomas, we know his upside, at least we did 4-5 seasons ago. He's just 30, and should be fresh if he can stay healthy. If he can do that, the sky is the limit, kind of like Antonio Brown. Also like Antonio Brown, big if on the staying healthy and on the field. If you want to swing for the fences, take him, but it's probably just gonna be an easy pop fly.

[DocNiner 44]

Yeah, I'd definitely keep Pittman and Dotson. Wouldn't waste a.keeper pick on Thomas or Thielen.,.that.way you'd have an extra draft pick.

[weepaws 2,452]

I would agree with not keeping Thomas or Thielen and retaining extra draft picks, but the op did list that has a option.  

[seafoam1 1,878]

On 5/26/2023 at 11:14 AM, jeffkomlo said:

Can keep 8 players this year in 12 team PPR

Keeping

L.Jackson QB

D. Henry RB

K.  Walker RB

Pitts TE

Higgins WR

Here's who's left: Dotson WR, Pittman WR, M. Thomas WR, Thielen WR

can only keep 3, thoughts?

1.  

Michael Thomas is worth the shot. Dude is a beast. This is the year to take a shot on him. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

On 5/26/2023 at 11:14 AM, jeffkomlo said:

Can keep 8 players this year in 12 team PPR

Keeping

L.Jackson QB

D. Henry RB

K.  Walker RB

Pitts TE

Higgins WR

Here's who's left: Dotson WR, Pittman WR, M. Thomas WR, Thielen WR

can only keep 3, thoughts?

1.  

Two options I see... win now or rebuild.

• Win now option is easy, since you can keep 3 of those 4 guys, Thielen is the guy you don't keep as he has the lowest ceiling.

 

Here's the thing, the rebuild option

• Lamar Jackson is a lot like Michael Vick, he's a runner, not a thrower.  Runners get hurt more often than throwers, as we've seen with Jackson the last 2 years, he's an example of this.  How many games is he going to play this year? 
• Henry had another high use season totaling over 380 touches again... two years ago he had 390 and missed half the following season.  Also, he turns 30 in January.  Yeah, I know, that's after the season, but still... for RB's, the magic number seems to be age 28.
• Seattle just spent a 2nd round pick on a RB who at worst, may be a quality 3rd down back.  I say "at worst", because that only affects Walker's receiving numbers and not both, rushing and passing.  I like Walker, I have him in my keeper league and I'm certainly entertaining the idea of trading him.
• Pitts, I see his situation like I do Pittman and Dotson, as the only real option on a team who doesn't have a reliable QB.  Sure, all 3 are talented and could put up good numbers by seasons end.  The thing is, the sum may look better than the parts.  All 3 may have 3 or 4 big games where they get like 7 receptions for 140 yards and 1 or 2 scores... while the other 13 or 14 games are sitting at 4 receptions for 50 yards.  When you look at the final numbers, you may 75 receptions for 1100 yards and 8 TD's and say, "nice season", but when you look at your fantasy totals, you see 7, 9, 28, 6, 8, 7, 5, 31, 10, 7, 9, 7, 27, blah, blah, blah.  In a 12-team league, you may be ok with 3 starters like that every week, but I don't think I would be.
• Higgins, a great player, is limited by Chase.  In the 4 games Chase missed, Higgins averaged over 19 fpg, but only 13 when they were both on the field.  Sure, 13 is a good number if he's your WR2, but not WR1.  To note, Higgins is in a contract year, so it's possible that he gets a big payday after the season to be a one, somewhere else... like New England.  If that happens, you have another Pitts/Pittman/Dotson on your hands.  Cincy could tag or re-sign him... but that means you still have a WR2 who's your WR1.

 

Personally, I'd take the win now option and try and get a whole bunch of low floor veterans while everyone else takes high ceiling young players.  In a league with 12 teams and 8 keepers, I'd imaging that the draft board will be filled with the 1 and 2 year high ceiling guys.  I'd say to try and win now with the group you have, hope they kill it, and trade them next year.

[weepaws 2,452]

I would without hesitation shop both Henry and Walker. Jackson is fine. I think Dotson will be your best wr.  Everyone else is trade bait imo. Good luck OP.  

[Ray_T 587]

22 hours ago, weepaws said:

I would without hesitation shop both Henry and Walker. Jackson is fine. I think Dotson will be your best wr.  Everyone else is trade bait imo. Good luck OP.  

if there is a buyer.

problem is, hes at a point where I dont know that people will break the bank to acquire him anymore.

if the return is mediocre, you might as well keep him and see if you can win.     This team is solid enough

Lamar at QB

Henry and Walker at RB   

Pitts at TE

Higgins, Pittman, Thomas and Dotson (or thelien)at WR

this isnt bad.

if Henry has another big year, this is a contender.  if he doesnt..... its rebuild time.   That said..... at the end of the year we are likely looking at a rebuild anyhow.

so I think keeping Dotson over Thelien is probably the move that needs to be made as I dont think Thelien outperforms Dotson by a whole lot (if at all) this year so might as well go with the young guy. 

 

I'd  Keep Thomas for his huge upside potential

if this season goes sideways early then look at trading some older players for young talent.   For me it all hinges on Henry.   if he isnt a top 5 RB this year,   this fantasy team likely cannot win a championship.   if he isnt top 10 this may not be a playoff team either.

at that point you have to be prepared for a quick pivot.     Play to win but be prepared to switch it up  by week 5 or 6 if things dont go as planned.

 

 

 

[weepaws 2,452]

I agree on paper the OP does have a solid team, but it’s a keeper league so I’m looking ahead.  I don’t see Henry having the season he had last season, I think the Titans look weaker on offense, and I do think Henry takes a tiny step back in ability.  Walker is scary with the draft pick of Charbonnet, who I think could be a better all around player.  Only thing I don’t like about the OP WRs is I don’t see a stud.  

Anyway my imo.  

[Ray_T 587]

21 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I agree on paper the OP does have a solid team, but it’s a keeper league so I’m looking ahead.  I don’t see Henry having the season he had last season, I think the Titans look weaker on offense, and I do think Henry takes a tiny step back in ability.  Walker is scary with the draft pick of Charbonnet, who I think could be a better all around player.  Only thing I don’t like about the OP WRs is I don’t see a stud.  

Anyway my imo.  

you are right.  the team has let some pieces go.  and the RB stats do tend to mirror the performance of the team as a whole.

They did address the o line in the off season drafting Skoronski in the first round.  if hes plug and play good (and he should be)  I have to think the line will be better than it was.  so this may offset any decline in age for Henry.   Thats why I feel he likely has one more good year in him.   if skoronski ends up being a bust, then Henry likely declines in his fantasy numbers (possibly in a significant way)

its hard to say for sure.   most talented RB's are good up til around the age of 30 and Henry isnt there but hes getting close.   one advantage he had is he never became a starter until his third year as a pro so there may be a bit more left in the tank than a typical player of his age and his usage would have.

Also other than an ACL tear, he has been remarkably durable and healthy.

This is all speculation at the end of the day once you get close to 30 the risk of injury goes up.

That said, I wouldnt go selling Henry at pennies on the dollar but if someone gave top dollar for him I'd probably bite and trade him away.

[weepaws 2,452]

I would take a top dollar trade for him also, but I think this season he slips down some.   

[Ray_T 587]

37 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I would take a top dollar trade for him also, but I think this season he slips down some.   

certainly possible.   lots of changes in Tennessee.

[Super Cubs 132]

what would you do with this team.12 teams,  ppr,  keep any 6, no 1st or 3rd round picks, drafting from the 8th spot. 

Currently keeping Kelce, Brown, Waddle, 2 RB, and most likely Christian Watson

QB- Watson, Gino Smith

RB - Mixon, Jacobs, Perine, Singletary

WR - AJ Brown, Waddle, Christian Watson, Aiyuk

TE - Kelce 

[LaChup 154]

Dotson then Pittman.