Dynasty Draft Thoughts

[The Commish 2022 1]

I think I have an opportunity to grab 2-3 future/current contributors but I don't know where to prioritize.   I know I won't get Robinson at #10, but wondering if I should grab Young/Stroudd if they fall?  I don't want to reach chasing a future QB/TE when I could add potential depth and grab a future QB/TE next year or use this year's draft capital for one after someone selects them.  I've usually traded my way to championships or playoffs, but now I'm stuck with a mediocre team that's a little long in the tooth.  So want to start prioritizing the draft a little more, and trade more when it makes sense.

I have sorted out as best as possible who's available in the 2023 Dynasty Draft, and wanted to know what position should I prioritize for the 1st x 2 (maybe 3) Rounds.  I figure that by 3-4 I'll just grab best available. I have the number #10 pick in Rounds 1- 6:

My Offensive Keepers

• Russell Wilson Den - QB
• Chris Godwin TB - WR
• Josh Jacobs LV - RB
• Nick Chubb Cle - RB
• David Njoku Cle - TE
• Marquise Brown Ari - WR
• David Montgomery Det - RB
• Gus Edwards Bal - RB
• Allen Lazard NYJ - WR
• Odell Beckham Jr. Bal - WR
• Kadarius Toney KC - WR
• Matthew Stafford LAR - QB

Available Top 50 Players for Draft: (Based on Yahoo 2023 Pts projection)

1- Bijan Robinson Atl - RB	2- Jahmyr Gibbs Det - RB	3 - AJ Dillon GB – RB
4 - Darren Waller NYG – TE	5- George Pickens Pit – WR	6 - James Cook Buf - RB
7 - Jordan Addison Min – WR	8 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba Sea - WR	9 - Brandin Cooks Dal - WR
10 - Chigoziem Okonkwo Ten - TE	11 - Anthony Richardson Ind - QB	12 - Zach Charbonnet Sea - RB
13 - JuJu Smith-Schuster NE - WR	14 - Skyy Moore KC – WR	15 - Quentin Johnston LAC – WR
16 - Zay Flowers Bal – WR	17 - Ezekiel Elliott NE - RB	18 - Sam LaPorta Det - TE
19 - Adam Thielen Car – WR	20 - Tyler Higbee LAR - TE	21- Kendre Miller NO - RB
22 - Dalton Kincaid Buf - TE	23 - Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC – RB	24- Zay Jones Jax - WR
25 - De'Von Achane Mia – RB	26 - Leonard Fournette TB -RB	27 - Chuba Hubbard Car - RB
28 - Donovan Peoples-Jones Cle - WR	29 - Jonathan Mingo Car - WR	30  - Irv Smith Jr. Cin - TE
31 - Dawson Knox Buf - TE	32 - Jayden Reed GB - WR	33 - Tank Bigsby Jax - RB
34 - Jerome Ford Cle - RB	35 - Roschon Johnson Chi - RB	36 - Allen Robinson II Pit - WR
37 - Joshua Kelley LAC - RB	38 - Khalil Shakir Buf - WR	39 - Taysom Hill NO - TE
40 - Jordan Love GB - QB	41 - Tyler Conklin NYJ - TE	42 - Luke Musgrave GB - TE
43 - Joshua Palmer LAC - WR	44 - Tyjae Spears Ten - RB	45 - Chase Brown Cin - RB
46 - Ty Chandler Min - RB	47 - Ryan Tannehill Ten – QB	48 - Zach Evans LAR - RB
49 - Sam Howell Was - QB	50 - Michael Mayer LV - TE

Notable Available Rookies/Vets:

Bryce Young Car - QB	C.J. Stroud Hou - QB	Desmond Ridder Atl - QB
Trey Lance SF - QB	Jake Ferguson Dal - TE	Terrace Marshall Jr. Car - WR
Tank Dell Hou - WR	Trey Lance SF - QB	Rashee Rice KC – WR
Mecole Hardman Jr. NYJ – WR	Ronald Jones Dal – RB	Marvin Mims Jr. Den – WR
Kyle Trask TB - QB	Will Levis Ten - QB	Malik Willis Ten - QB

I appreciate all feedback.

[The Commish 2022 1]

My Thought was best rookie WR/RB with the 1st RD, best rookie/2nd yr QB with 2nd RD, and if a rookie TE was available in the 3rd rd.

[Ray_T 753]

This is considered to be the best QB class in some time and you do have two QB's who are past their peak.

if one of the top 3 QB prospects should drop to you, thats the obvious choice but I suspect they will be gone before you can pick and I dont like the idea of spending a first rounder on a 2nd tier prospect.

I dont mind some of the top WR in this class and I also like LaPorta.   Tough to justify a first rounder on a TE and not knowing your draft I dont know when the right time would be to pull the trigger on him.  maybe second round?

Jordan Love might be a sneaky good pickup but I dont think you should spend a first rounder on him.   hes likely a 2nd or 3rd round pick (maybe later depending on your league)

I also dont mind a guy like Tannehill as a later round flyer.  if hes your third QB you could do a lot worse.

 

 

 

 

[The Commish 2022 1]

46 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

This is considered to be the best QB class in some time and you do have two QB's who are past their peak.

if one of the top 3 QB prospects should drop to you, thats the obvious choice but I suspect they will be gone before you can pick and I dont like the idea of spending a first rounder on a 2nd tier prospect.

I dont mind some of the top WR in this class and I also like LaPorta.   Tough to justify a first rounder on a TE and not knowing your draft I dont know when the right time would be to pull the trigger on him.  maybe second round?

Jordan Love might be a sneaky good pickup but I dont think you should spend a first rounder on him.   hes likely a 2nd or 3rd round pick (maybe later depending on your league)

I also dont mind a guy like Tannehill as a later round flyer.  if hes your third QB you could do a lot worse.

 

 

 

 

Thank you for your feedback.  I feel the same way about my QB situation, I'm not as sold on Richardson as everyone.  He's like less accurate Cam Newton, and that's saying alot.  I think Fields and Lamar are underrated passers.  I'm ranking Addison, then Pickens, and then Smith-Njigba on my board.  I'm not sure Jay Flowers will emerge to the star that I'm seeking.  I'm seeing a lot of buzz on LaPorta and if he can turn into the next Andrews at least I think its a win at #2Rd.  How do you feel about Sam Howell at QB?  I think he will slip to the 3-4 rds and he might be in that early Russ Wilson year good.

[Ray_T 753]

17 minutes ago, The Commish 2022 said:

Thank you for your feedback.  I feel the same way about my QB situation, I'm not as sold on Richardson as everyone.  He's like less accurate Cam Newton, and that's saying alot.  I think Fields and Lamar are underrated passers.  I'm ranking Addison, then Pickens, and then Smith-Njigba on my board.  I'm not sure Jay Flowers will emerge to the star that I'm seeking.  I'm seeing a lot of buzz on LaPorta and if he can turn into the next Andrews at least I think its a win at #2Rd.  How do you feel about Sam Howell at QB?  I think he will slip to the 3-4 rds and he might be in that early Russ Wilson year good.

honestly Howell reminded me of Tim Teebow in the one NFL game of his I watched last year.  (and thats not a good thing... his judgement and accuracy on some throws left a lot to be desired)  That said I felt the same about Hurts a couple years ago and I was wrong.  he really stepped up his play, his mechanics seem better and his accuracy is better now.

from what I hear Howells accuracy has looked a bit better in pre season but not all the players on the field are necessarily starters.   So its hard to say if Howell is THAT much better than last year.   If thinking about him I'd do some in depth research to see if you can gain an edge.   sometimes you can get a camp report (or article) from a local beat writer that is a more  honest and realistic analysis than what you typically see.   I'm going to try to make an effort to watch Howells last pre season game but if drafting before that point, that wont help you at the draft table.   Sadly the last pre season game is usually your best indicator for where a young player like him is at prior to rolling into the regular season. 

but if you can get howell at a reasonable price I dont mind trying a dart throw if I'm in your position.   Maybe I'd look at grabbing a Jordan love and then grab someone like him later.   if one of the top 3 QB prospects in this years draft actually fall to you I think you need to take one.   but if they dont this is a nice backup plan.

as for the rest, I like PIckens for a possible breakout.  That does require better QB play from Pickett but he did show signs of better play late last season so its not an unreasonable expectation.  I like Smith Njigba, but hes got two very good WR ahead of him on the depth chart.  but because of that you may be able to get him later than you'd normally get a talent like him.

I like LaPorta, but he probably wont put up big numbers this year.  I suspect hes a 1-2 year wait.   The talent is there, but TE usually need to learn routes and blocking assignments so its a steeper learning curve.   but I love his potential.

[The Commish 2022 1]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

honestly Howell reminded me of Tim Teebow in the one NFL game of his I watched last year.  (and thats not a good thing... his judgement and accuracy on some throws left a lot to be desired)  That said I felt the same about Hurts a couple years ago and I was wrong.  he really stepped up his play, his mechanics seem better and his accuracy is better now. 

 

Wow.....Tim Tebow is harsh!!!  If he's that bad, that is a concern.  I was basing my evaluation based on the first preseason game.  I'm hoping he can be a steal in the draft and future contributor in the future.  Unfortunately, his 3rd game will be after my draft, so I'll have make an educated decision and see how he looks in week 2.

As far as the top #3 rookie QB's, what is your thought about Richardson?  He can throw it a mile, and can run.....but can he play QB?

Pickens and Smith Njigba, I fee will be stars.  Pickens came on strong last year and will most likely be WR1 for the Steelers. Smith Njigba to be is the heir apparent to Lockett as he's in his 30's and has a higher salary.

What about the TE situation in Dal, Green Bay and LV?  Have you heard any credible intel on them?  Not everyone can be Andrews or Kelce.  But in the right situation, in 2-3 yrs if they are giving you 60 rec, 700 Yds, 6-8 TD's I'd call it a win.

Also I thought Love looked good in preseason game #1, but it is preseason.  Where are you thinking about taking him?

 

[Ray_T 753]

8 minutes ago, The Commish 2022 said:

Wow.....Tim Tebow is harsh!!!  If he's that bad, that is a concern.  I was basing my evaluation based on the first preseason game. 

keep in mind, I only watched one game.  he wasnt quite as bad as  Teebow, but he made some of the same type of mistakes.   Keep in mind,  its a small sample size I looked at.  one game...  but thats sort of what he reminded me of.   maybe I caught him on a bad day.

10 minutes ago, The Commish 2022 said:

As far as the top #3 rookie QB's, what is your thought about Richardson?  He can throw it a mile, and can run.....but can he play QB?

This is the million dollar question.   the tape on him looks better than the tape and games I saw Howell play in.   hes in a different boat in the sense that occasionally he shows an incredible touch on the ball and occasionally he looks bad.  so I can see why teams like him.  they think with pro coaching he could be so much better.

from what I have seen, it looks like he could work on his mechanics some but thats not entirely unusual coming out of college.   his first year will likely be rough at times.  he looks a bit more like  an RBIII who can throw a better deep ball. 

I have not looked a whole lot at TE but In the mock draft I took Higbee and Knox.  I think these are both value players who I took late and have some upside.   I dont mind Waller in New York but the price to pay for him might be higher than you should pay for a TE.   I also like Cook in Dallas and Okonkwo in Tennessee. 

20 minutes ago, The Commish 2022 said:

Also I thought Love looked good in preseason game #1, but it is preseason.  Where are you thinking about taking him?

Love also looked a bit out of place most of his first year, but decent in the limited action he got this last year.   once again, it was a small sample size but he looked a lot more comfortable.  It felt like the game had slowed down a bit for him.    he was a first round pick.   I wouldnt bet on a top 12 performance or anything.   hes a QB2.  but if you can get him for the price of a low to mid range QB2 it's a nice gamble to make.   He does have QB1 upside but likely not this year.  hes still gonna take some lumps as this is his first year as a true starter.   Hes a bit further along in his development than a typical rookie but hes not at a point where I'd want him as a starter.   good news for you is you have 2 starting calibre players and picking up a younger guy who can at least put up adequate numbers isnt a bad move.   Keep in mind, in buying him, you dont need him to perform this year.  you need him to perform Next Year.  and By that point he may be a player you will want.

as for when you should pick him, unfortunately thats a know your league thing.  I dont know how your league mates value the QB position.  You are likely better able to make that determination.  I've told you the price range (low to mid QB2)   so once the mid range QB2's start to go you should think about pulling the trigger on him.   He is younger than most (if not all) the QB2's in his tier, so I'd say if you wanna make sure you get him, treat him as a mid range QB2. 

but I wouldnt pay more than that price. 

[The Commish 2022 1]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

keep in mind, I only watched one game.  he wasnt quite as bad as  Teebow, but he made some of the same type of mistakes.   Keep in mind,  its a small sample size I looked at.  one game...  but thats sort of what he reminded me of.   maybe I caught him on a bad day.

 

I agree, but I think I'll do my due diligence and watch a few games and see how he really looks.  I should actually watch the game and not just go based on ESPN/Yahoo projections.  Thanks for the intel.

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

This is the million dollar question.   the tape on him looks better than the tape and games I saw Howell play in.   hes in a different boat in the sense that occasionally he shows an incredible touch on the ball and occasionally he looks bad.  so I can see why teams like him.  they think with pro coaching he could be so much better.

from what I have seen, it looks like he could work on his mechanics some but thats not entirely unusual coming out of college.   his first year will likely be rough at times.  he looks a bit more like  an RBIII who can throw a better deep ball. 

 

I think everyone's hoping that he's the next Justin Fields.  I'll watch his next game and see if I can get a better feel of what I'm getting if he falls to me.

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

I have not looked a whole lot at TE but In the mock draft I took Higbee and Knox.  I think these are both value players who I took late and have some upside.   I dont mind Waller in New York but the price to pay for him might be higher than you should pay for a TE.   I also like Cook in Dallas and Okonkwo in Tennessee. 

I've been holding on to Njoku hoping that he would finally pay off for me.  I agree TE is hard to evaluate, but if LaPorta can slide to the 3rd RD it would be worth sitting on until he's decent.  But I feel that everyone is going to be chasing him, so if I can "steal" one of those other TE's and wait until they are reliable it would be worth it.  I think this is the year that Njoku finally rewards my patience.  I think Waller is too old for the price I would end up paying (1st/2nd).

 

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

as for when you should pick him, unfortunately thats a know your league thing.  I dont know how your league mates value the QB position.  You are likely better able to make that determination.  I've told you the price range (low to mid QB2)   so once the mid range QB2's start to go you should think about pulling the trigger on him.   He is younger than most (if not all) the QB2's in his tier, so I'd say if you wanna make sure you get him, treat him as a mid range QB2. 

but I wouldnt pay more than that price. 

I think you've helped me formulate my approach for this year. I will most likely go with a multiyear rebuild.  I won't tear my team completely down, but I will grab a top #3QB if possible and then fill out around the edges over the next 2 years.  As in real FB a franchise QB is hard to find, so if I can grab one, then I can build around that.

Are you favoring Stroudd or Young.  I think Richardson will go first because of his leg potential.  Young looks like the better prospect, but he's tiny and if he keeps taking hits like that, he'll be on the IR frequently.  Stroudd looked a little confused, but that could be him just being a rookie.

[Ray_T 753]

17 hours ago, The Commish 2022 said:

I think I'll do my due diligence and watch a few games and see how he really looks.  I should actually watch the game and not just go based on ESPN/Yahoo projections.  Thanks for the intel.

This is almost always the best policy on players like this.   See with your own eyes what he does.  if you have a good eye this will give you a better understanding of what the player is about and is worth more than any stat projection.

17 hours ago, The Commish 2022 said:

Are you favoring Stroudd or Young.  I think Richardson will go first because of his leg potential.  Young looks like the better prospect, but he's tiny and if he keeps taking hits like that, he'll be on the IR frequently.  Stroudd looked a little confused, but that could be him just being a rookie.

I favoured Stroud going into the year but it looks like the texans are having a hard time keeping the pocket clean for him.   I always worry about rookie QB's playing behind a leaky line.  its a good way to ruin a prospect.  so I'm not as sure about this as I was about a month ago.

that said, while his line is not as good as what Young has to deal with, his WR seem to be better.  in the end this should help him to develop more quickly so long as they can find a way to keep him from getting beat up back there.

I'd rather throw to Collins and Woods than Theilen and Chark (even if I like Chark more than others on this board)