#1 Pick

[Gratefulegg1973 253]

So for the first time in 25+ years in this 10 man league, I drew the 1st pick.  Not really happy about it either.  

I've been doing mock after mock. 

Common sense says to pick JJ or Chase.  But I hate the RBs that fall back to me (usually scrubs like Najee, Mixon, Etienne, etc)

But on the other hand, if I start with CMAC or Ekeler, usually guys like Waddle, St Brown, Wilson, etc are there.  

So, would you rather start the draft with say:

JJ, Mixon, Waddle

or

CMAC, Waddle, Wilson

[Mufaletta 41]

I'd go JJ.    Generational talent.     JJ, Mixon, Waddle looks good.

[wolves111 85]

I’d substitute Pierce for Mixon

[weepaws 2,809]

First pick I would take Jefferson. 

[Ray_T 686]

honestly I'd try to trade out of the first pick.

I hate that draft slot.  especially this year.   but that may not be an option in your league.

[weepaws 2,809]

Never been an option in ant redraft leave I’ve been in.  That was an option when I was in a few keeper leagues.  

[gridirongoofs 93]

1 hour ago, wolves111 said:

I’d substitute Pierce for Mixon

This.  I've even seen Henry available at 19 and 20. Depends on how many qbs and te's go in the picks before your 2nd.

[GobbleDog 909]

2 hours ago, Gratefulegg1973 said:

Common sense says to pick JJ or Chase.  But I hate the RBs that fall back to me (usually scrubs like Najee, Mixon, Etienne, etc)

Can't blame ya. I don't like any you listed either. Josh Jacobs would be nice, but likely won't fall to pick 20. So I get why you'd consider McCaff or Ekeler rd 1, but if I had the #1 in a ppr league I'd be thinking:

1) Jefferson                                                                                                              

2) Waddle 3) Best Rb (Stevenson for me, but whoever ya like)                      

4) Sanders/Dobbins/White/Conner/Pacheco/Jones  5) Qb or Wr of choice 

Draft more Rb's and Wr's in later rounds for depth. Draft some rookie lotto tickets in double digit rounds (Bigsby, Charbonette, R Johnson, Achane, etc.) That would be my strategy. Unfortunate the #1 pick isn't the great draft position it used to be - and definitely not this year. But nail some picks, and you can make it work. I believe in the Egg!

ETA - you didn't mention the league scoring. If it's 4 pt pass / 6 pt rush Td - Hurts in the 2nd/3rd looks real tempting.

[Grack 3]

Hard to pass on JJ, but I'll go the other way here and say CMAC.  CMAC, Waddle Wilson looks great. I feel Mixon will burn ya.  You get a true RB1 with CMAC with very solid WRs. 

[Ray_T 686]

yeah, and i think the third slot might be the toughest slot to do a zero RB strategy as well.

though I dont mind the idea of taking a WR in round 1 and then bouncing back and taking a RB in round 2 and 3.

some fairly decent RBs are dropping into round 2 and 3 now.   a buddy of mine in a draft (not sure the level of competition in that one) called me when his pick was happening in the middle of round 2 and he was deciding between Henry and Jacobs who were both on the board.

while I wouldnt count on that happening in your draft, especially in your draft slot because you draft at 1 and then not again until 24 and 25.     Thats what really sucks in the #1 slot.   the draft can literally go in too many directions before you have the chance to pick again so making an estimate of where you expect to be when you next pick is challenging at best. 

I do like Pierce and Walker.   and based on ADP,  they should both be on the board when you are back up to draft.   Mixon is an option.  his numbers were down but the Bengals had big time line problems last year.  The line was average at best and then had early season injuries and it showed in the offenive performance of the team (mostly in the ground game)

It looks like they have made some moves to shore this up. Most of the sites that do line rankings have them as middle of the pack.   I think one had them at #13 (slightly above average) and another had them in the lower half again.  so he might be a good option.   I'm looking at whether I want to get him in my auction draft.   I'm really on the fence. 

That said.....so if you went Justin Jefferson and then came back and took Mixon, there is a fair chance both Pierce and walker will be available when you next pick.   

another option would be to take Jeffereson, and another WR in round 1 and at the 2/3 turn grab another WR and Mixon and then go for Pierce/Walker combo when it comes back to you (or just take one if you think your depth is good enough)

but the best strategy will be dictated by the time round 2 comes around.    if a run on RB happens, there is more incentive for you to grab a WR at the turn.   if a run on WR happens (which I have seen more of) then I'd likely go the other direction and take at least one RB. (possibly 2 if a RB you like drops)

the second option gives you the option to let the draft come to you.    (which I like)

[GobbleDog 909]

I posted this last week, but this is probably a more appropriate thread.  Consensus #1 Rbs

'18 Gurley - Monster season

'19 Barkley - disappointing

'20 McCaff - bust

'21 McCaff - bust

'22 Taylor - bust

'23 McCaff - ???

[Ray_T 686]

22 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

Mixon is an option.  his numbers were down but the Bengals had big time line problems last year.  The line was average at best and then had early season injuries and it showed in the offenive performance of the team (mostly in the ground game)

It looks like they have made some moves to shore this up. Most of the sites that do line rankings have them as middle of the pack.   I think one had them at #13 (slightly above average) and another had them in the lower half again.  so he might be a good option.   I'm looking at whether I want to get him in my auction draft. 

ok further to this.

I checked fftoday's article titled the big uglies which takes ratings from PFF for the line.   while this line is middle of the pack, the pass block grade is above average and the run block grade leaves a lot to be desired.

I'm having a change of heart on Mixon.  I'd say avoid at his ADP.   I dont think hes a great option unless the line does better than predicted.

[weepaws 2,809]

I’m back on the Mixon wagon, I jumped off, but non of their back Rbs really have stood out, so I’ll be targeting mr Mixon again. 

[bimmer 7]

i went with JJ and ended up w/ Mixon & Hurts... Waddle & Wilson gone before then... 

[weepaws 2,809]

To early for a Qb. 

[Jeebus 3]

I also drew the #1 in one of my league. Ended up with jj, waddle, and hurts in the first 3 rounds. Pretty much screwed me at the rb position, as I ended up with dobbins and Akers as my starters. 

[weepaws 2,809]

Should have passed on taken a Qb in the third rd, could have taken a rb at the spot. 

Ps if Dobbins stays healthy, I think he could have a top ten rb season .5 ppr.  

[GobbleDog 909]

1 minute ago, Jeebus said:

I also drew the #1 in one of my league. Ended up with jj, waddle, and hurts in the first 3 rounds. Pretty much screwed me at the rb position, as I ended up with dobbins and Akers as my starters. 

  until that part about Achilles Akers... oof. 

[GobbleDog 909]

30 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I’m back on the Mixon wagon, I jumped off, but non of their back Rbs really have stood out, so I’ll be targeting mr Mixon again. 

His adp might be a tad high (Rb 9 to 12), but no shame in Mixon who finished Rb 10 last year - despite missing 3 games.

If he stays healthy a below avg year would be about 40 rec, 8 tds, 1,300 total yds. That would've been Rb 15 last year. I wouldn't reach, but he wouldn't have to fall very far for me to see value.  Even if he is a scumbag.

[Ray_T 686]

24 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

  until that part about Achilles Akers... oof. 

Akers had the Achilles injury going into the start of last season and it showed.  early season he was not that good.

but based on his performance closer to the end of the year I'm inclined to think the Achilles may no longer be an issue.   

[Ray_T 686]

7 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

His adp might be a tad high (Rb 9 to 12), but no shame in Mixon who finished Rb 10 last year - despite missing 3 games.

If he stays healthy a below avg year would be about 40 rec, 8 tds, 1,300 total yds. That would've been Rb 15 last year. I wouldn't reach, but he wouldn't have to fall very far for me to see value.  Even if he is a scumbag.

thats the other thing with Mixon.   hes an idiot off the field.   there is a suspension risk with incidents we know about.   and possibly for incidents we dont know about yet.

hes fine as an RB2.  I just dont want him as my RB1

[weepaws 2,809]

Just did a 12 team ppr mock at espn, Mostert was the 30th rb taken, it might not show up, but Joe public as already adjusted.  

[kcBlitzkrieg 29]

both drafts so far I've done JJ went #1 overall.... those teams then took the following:

JJ/Taylor/DK  (drafted 8/20) other RBs on team:  Pearce/Samaje/Roschon J/ Gus Edwards

JJ/ASB/AJB other RBs:  Pacheco / Dalvin / Swift / GusE / RoschonJ

 

I went WR/WR from the 7 spot in the first example above and my RBs ended up:  KWIII / Montgomery / Swift / BRobinsonJR / Charbonnet / Gainwell / Warren.....dude took a big risk with JT obviously several weeks ago and as of now doesn't look like it's gonna pay off for him at that 2nd round price....maybe he still gets traded idk.  

[rotisserieking 37]

FWIW I've done 5 mock drafts so far and JJ has gone #1 in all 5.

[GobbleDog 909]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

Akers had the Achilles injury going into the start of last season and it showed.  early season he was not that good.

but based on his performance closer to the end of the year I'm inclined to think the Achilles may no longer be an issue.   

He looked really good the final six games, but the horrible Rb track record of achilles scares me. Guess I want to see a full season first.

At least his adp includes a big discount.

[bimmer 7]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

To early for a Qb. 

ended up JJ, Mixon, Hurts, London, Watson, Waller, Swift (shoulda picked R White), B Robinson, S Moore, S Perine, Z Flowers, T Burks ... what do you think?

[Ray_T 686]

7 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

At least his adp includes a big discount.

it does.  and thats why I like him at his ADP.

if it was valued closer to where it should be if this wasnt an issue I likely would not be buying at his ADP.

[weepaws 2,809]

2 hours ago, bimmer said:

i went with JJ and ended up w/ Mixon & Hurts... Waddle & Wilson gone before then... 

 

16 minutes ago, bimmer said:

ended up JJ, Mixon, Hurts, London, Watson, Waller, Swift (shoulda picked R White), B Robinson, S Moore, S Perine, Z Flowers, T Burks ... what do you think?

Third rd to early for a Qb.