The state of the Presidential race- Kamala likely has 276 electoral votes

[The Real timschochet 4,815]

2 minutes ago, Horseman said:

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/pa-pres-0929/

538 ranks Cygnal as the most trusted

Even NBC has to admit it's a jump ball (not for long).

 

If aggregate polling in Pennsylvania moves in Trump’s direction I will be sure to note it here. And he will then become the favorite to win, obviously. So far, thankfully, that hasn’t happened. 

[Horseman 1,707]

538 PA Polls Since Sept 20th

Sept. 27-Oct. 2	5,686	LV	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	The Telegraph	Harris	48%	47%	Trump	More	Harris	+1
Sept. 28-29	800	LV	OnMessage	Sentinel Action Fund (super PAC)	Harris	47%	47%	Trump			Even
Sept. 27-29	816	RV	Patriot Polling		Harris	49%	50%	Trump		Trump	+1
Sept. 26-29	1,090	LV	Trafalgar Group		Harris	45%	48%	Trump		Trump	+2
Sept. 27-28	1,000	LV	Emerson College	RealClearPennsylvania	Harris	49%	49%	Trump		Harris	+1
Sept. 20-25	1,775	LV	AtlasIntel		Harris	48%	51%	Trump		Trump	+3
Sept. 20-25	1,775	LV	AtlasIntel		Harris	48%	51%	Trump	More	Trump	+3

[OldMaid 1,969]

3 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

They over counted  MAGA, which I suspect they’re doing again. We’ll see. 

I would book it.

If 2016 was the year of the secret Trump voter, 2024 is on track to be the year of the secret Harris voter. A lot of non-MAGA republicans are either voting for her, or sitting this one out. 

[thegeneral 2,241]

Team Kamala about to bust out the Obama Hammer and then get some Taylor Swift shet going.

I know the guy from Shazam was a big pull for Don tho!

[Horseman 1,707]

7 minutes ago, OldMaid said:

I would book it.

If 2016 was the year of the secret Trump voter, 2024 is on track to be the year of the secret Harris voter. A lot of non-MAGA republicans are either voting for her, or sitting this one out. 

Harris is now down to 55%.

[OldMaid 1,969]

6 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Harris is now down to 55%.

I guess you can’t read. So I’m going to spell it out for you.

2016 & 2020 underestimated Trump support. But by the 2022 midterms they over corrected. They were predicting a big red wave that turned out to be a trickle. There are focus groups out there that are tracking secret Harris voters, and the numbers are not insignificant.

[Horseman 1,707]

5 minutes ago, OldMaid said:

I guess you can’t read. So I’m going to spell it out for you.

2016 & 2020 underestimated Trump support. But by the 2022 midterms they over corrected. They were predicting a big red wave that turned out to be a trickle. There are focus groups out there that are tracking secret Harris voters, and the numbers are not insignificant.

You can guess and fabricate something in your head if you want based on one midterm.  Though doing that doesn't make you much better that Timschochet wish casting. I suggest that using historical data and adjusting for bias in well documented presidential elections might be more accurate.  

[OldMaid 1,969]

Just now, Horseman said:

You can guess and fabricate something in your head if you want based on one midterm.  I suggest that using historical data and adjusting for bias in well documented presidential elections might be more accurate.  

Ok, but you’re going to be wrong. This election is already over.

[avoiding injuries 1,300]

7 minutes ago, OldMaid said:

I guess you can’t read. So I’m going to spell it out for you.

2016 & 2020 underestimated Trump support. But by the 2022 midterms they over corrected. They were predicting a big red wave that turned out to be a trickle. There are focus groups out there that are tracking secret Harris voters, and the numbers are not insignificant.

The odds are in your favor on Polymarket. I’d take advantage of it if I had the same confidence you’re expressing. 

[Horseman 1,707]

1 minute ago, OldMaid said:

Ok, but you’re going to be wrong. This election is already over.

Well geez why are you even here discussing it then, just want to spike a football in the third quarter?

You can get her plus money in some places in the betting markets.  Bet the farm!

[seafoam1 2,405]

8 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Well geez why are you even here discussing it then, just want to spike a football in the third quarter?

You can get her plus money in some places in the betting markets.  Bet the farm!

That rag and timmy must be brother and sister. Alcohol riddled overweight uneducated liberals. 

[OldMaid 1,969]

10 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Well geez why are you even here discussing it then, just want to spike a football in the third quarter?

You can get her plus money in some places in the betting markets.  Bet the farm!

You’re assuming that I haven’t already placed my bets.

[Reality 2,941]

20 minutes ago, OldMaid said:

Ok, but you’re going to be wrong. This election is already over.

Lol

[squistion 1,427]

 

[Reality 2,941]

10 minutes ago, squistion said:

 

Full on panic from the left seeing numbers like that.

[Beaker15 177]

3 hours ago, OldMaid said:

I would book it.

If 2016 was the year of the secret Trump voter, 2024 is on track to be the year of the secret Harris voter. A lot of non-MAGA republicans are either voting for her, or sitting this one out. 

On one hand I kind of agree if you are stupid enough to want to vote for Harris it would be best not to admit it.  However, idiots seem to not care about this and are squistioning their love for Harris all over the place.  The difference is if you express your love for Trump some woke idiot will damage your car or house.  That has not gone away and why Trump always underpolls.  Trump wasn't on the ballot for midterms.  Trump in a landslide 

[Gepetto 1,149]

I already voted early ballot Trump / Vance. I'm in the district with 1 electoral vote in Nebraska. It went Democratic in the Presidential Election in 2008 and 2020. I guess polls favor Harris.

[Horseman 1,707]

3 hours ago, Beaker15 said:

On one hand I kind of agree if you are stupid enough to want to vote for Harris it would be best not to admit it.  However, idiots seem to not care about this and are squistioning their love for Harris all over the place.  The difference is if you express your love for Trump some woke idiot will damage your car or house.  That has not gone away and why Trump always underpolls.  Trump wasn't on the ballot for midterms.  Trump in a landslide 

Noonan should post more often. 

[The Real timschochet 4,815]

4 hours ago, Beaker15 said:

Trump in a landslide 

Interesting that there are folks here on both sides practically guaranteeing victory. I think Harris has the very slight edge but I guarantee nothing, it could easily go either way. 
 

I hope all the folks here guaranteeing Trump or Harris will show up on election night. 

[TrailGuy 84]

Texas in play

[The Real timschochet 4,815]

New York Times/Sienna national poll, which has until today shown Trump in the lead, now has Kamala Harris by 3 points: 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/harris-takes-slim-lead-over-trump-new-poll-voters-view-her-candidate-change.amp

She is now perceived as the candidate of change. 

[The Real timschochet 4,815]

@Jon_mx has asserted several times that 25% of African American voters support Donald Trump, but has never provided evidence, The most recent polling I’ve been able to find on this is about a month old- it shows that around 12% of likely black voters in the swing states support Trump, while 82% back Harris: 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna171467

[squistion 1,427]

22 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

@Jon_mx has asserted several times that 25% of African American voters support Donald Trump, but has never provided evidence, The most recent polling I’ve been able to find on this is about a month old- it shows that around 12% of likely black voters in the swing states support Trump, while 82% back Harris: 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna171467

Jon still has a thread up that says: Trump 340 EV - Harris 198 EV (I asked him where he was getting these numbers from and got no response)

[zsasz 328]

Wierd vibe in that  either side could get blindsided by the "hidden" voter in this election.

I think that in most areas of the country, the Trump supporter is way more vocal, outspoken and wears they/their heart on they/their sleeve.....but I can see some areas where they/their would be hesitant to raise their banner for Trump.  Same for Harris supporters.  I'm sure there are Harris supporters in the trailer parks of the country....but they are hesitant to show support.

 

I'll stand on my original prediction. Harris wins.  And internal and external polling in the months post election will show that ANY Republican candidate other than Trump would have beat her.  The Centrists went with Harris because the Republicans didn't do THEIR job in the primary.

[Maximum Overkill 1,195]

1 hour ago, zsasz said:

Harris supporters

Are stupid DEI SUPPORTERS 

She's dumb as the day is long