RBs that will be available in round 4

[jtztdm]

I play in a ppr league and usually don't draft my 2nd rb to the 4th rd. Any advice on any potential sleepers or decent rbs that I could target .....tia

[Maximum Overkill]

8 minutes ago, jtztdm said:

I play in a ppr league and usually don't draft my 2nd rb to the 4th rd. Any advice on any potential sleepers or decent rbs that I could target .....tia

Is this a 12 Team Redraft, no keepers? 

[weepaws]

Is this a 14 teamed, or I little ten teamer. 

[jtztdm]

This is a 12 team league redraft as well 

[wolves111]

2 hours ago, jtztdm said:

I play in a ppr league and usually don't draft my 2nd rb to the 4th rd. Any advice on any potential sleepers or decent rbs that I could target .....tia

Don’t listen to the j bag Weepaws because he’s a loser. Total lying pos.

[weepaws]

4 hours ago, jtztdm said:

I play in a ppr league and usually don't draft my 2nd rb to the 4th rd. Any advice on any potential sleepers or decent rbs that I could target .....tia

Looking at ADP, you have a load of options in the 4th rd,  I like Jacobs, Kamara, J Cook, Mixon, Etienne., also Rbs like D Montgomery and R Stevenson.   Good luck.  

[weepaws]

1 hour ago, wolves111 said:

Don’t listen to the j bag Weepaws because he’s a loser. Total lying pos.

God bless your little heart.  

[Ray_T]

4 hours ago, wolves111 said:

Don’t listen to the j bag Weepaws because he’s a loser. Total lying pos.

hey lets try to keep it civil guys.   Everyone is entitled to an opinion and just because their opinion does not jive with yours doesnt mean they are invalid opinions.

I'm the first guy to admit I dont agree with everything he says.    and he doesnt agree with everything I say, but we do sometimes agree.

but that's part of fantasy football.  if everyone agreed with your opinion, your best picks would be poached by other players before you got to draft them most of the time.   Thats what makes fantasy football great.    sometimes he will see something in a player that you dont or vice versa.   and thats cool.   thats how we learn from each other.

and maybe you dont like a guy on the board (it happens) but that doesnt mean every opinion they put up on here is wrong.

all I ask is we try to keep things civil so we can have a decent discussion about the topic without making people overly upset.

[Ray_T]

ok to answer your question first I'm gonna put up the likely candidates (based on ADP)

1) Etienne (ADP 45)-  if he falls to you.  I suspect he goes early.

2)  Pacheco (ADP 44)-not sexy but a solid player.  just not 100% suited to PPR play.   it did look like they are running a few more routes with him later in the year.  so his receiving numbers may bump up a bit this year and that could be enough to make him a reasonable value pick at this point in the draft.

3) Jacobs (adp 54)-better team, better situation.   but hes got a lower floor and higher ceiling than he had last year.

4) Mixon (ADP 61)-Hou-  Mixon was running behind what might have been one of the weaker lines.   part of this was due to injuries on the line.  either way, hes running in a better situation.  I expect a bounceback year.

5 James Cook  ADP 60-might be a sneaky good pick.  guy looks talented enough, but is stuck in an offense that likes to throw- a lot.   but given that all the WR's have departed they may lean on the run early in the season until the new WR's develop a chemistry with Josh Allen.

6.  Rachaad White (adp 63)-probably the least sexy pick here.  but he catches a lot of footballs.  you could do worse

7. Kenneth Walker (ADP 72)-I actually love this guy, but noting the coaching change its not a lock that he gets the volume hes had in the past

8 Kamara (ADP 75)-guy is a douche, but presents decent value in PPR leagues at this ADP.   Not sure you wanna take him in round 4 but its an option

 9  Naj Harris ADP 86-this rises if they announce hes for sure going to be the starter on day 1 of the regular season)   and I like that he is playing for a contract.

This is most likely the top candidates if you are looking in round 4 for a RB in PPR.

there are others  these are the ones you are most likely to have left.

 

[wolves111]

7 hours ago, Ray_T said:

hey lets try to keep it civil guys.   Everyone is entitled to an opinion and just because their opinion does not jive with yours doesnt mean they are invalid opinions.

I'm the first guy to admit I dont agree with everything he says.    and he doesnt agree with everything I say, but we do sometimes agree.

but that's part of fantasy football.  if everyone agreed with your opinion, your best picks would be poached by other players before you got to draft them most of the time.   Thats what makes fantasy football great.    sometimes he will see something in a player that you dont or vice versa.   and thats cool.   thats how we learn from each other.

and maybe you dont like a guy on the board (it happens) but that doesnt mean every opinion they put up on here is wrong.

all I ask is we try to keep things civil so we can have a decent discussion about the topic without making people overly upset.

Yeah well, I've blocked him, so I won't have any more issues with him. And for clarifications it's not his opinions that upset me. I could care less if someone agrees with my opinions or not. This forum is supposed to be enjoyable, not a place to be stalked.

[IGotWorms]

10 hours ago, Ray_T said:

ok to answer your question first I'm gonna put up the likely candidates (based on ADP)

1) Etienne (ADP 45)-  if he falls to you.  I suspect he goes early.

2)  Pacheco (ADP 44)-not sexy but a solid player.  just not 100% suited to PPR play.   it did look like they are running a few more routes with him later in the year.  so his receiving numbers may bump up a bit this year and that could be enough to make him a reasonable value pick at this point in the draft.

3) Jacobs (adp 54)-better team, better situation.   but hes got a lower floor and higher ceiling than he had last year.

4) Mixon (ADP 61)-Hou-  Mixon was running behind what might have been one of the weaker lines.   part of this was due to injuries on the line.  either way, hes running in a better situation.  I expect a bounceback year.

5 James Cook  ADP 60-might be a sneaky good pick.  guy looks talented enough, but is stuck in an offense that likes to throw- a lot.   but given that all the WR's have departed they may lean on the run early in the season until the new WR's develop a chemistry with Josh Allen.

6.  Rachaad White (adp 63)-probably the least sexy pick here.  but he catches a lot of footballs.  you could do worse

7. Kenneth Walker (ADP 72)-I actually love this guy, but noting the coaching change its not a lock that he gets the volume hes had in the past

8 Kamara (ADP 75)-guy is a douche, but presents decent value in PPR leagues at this ADP.   Not sure you wanna take him in round 4 but its an option

 9  Naj Harris ADP 86-this rises if they announce hes for sure going to be the starter on day 1 of the regular season)   and I like that he is playing for a contract.

This is most likely the top candidates if you are looking in round 4 for a RB in PPR.

there are others  these are the ones you are most likely to have left.

 

Cook, Mixon, White, Harris? A veritable row of has beens and never-wases.

Give me Pacheco, Cook etc. Some guys with promise 

[Phil Simms 11]

1 hour ago, IGotWorms said:

Cook, Mixon, White, Harris? A veritable row of has beens and never-wases.

Give me Pacheco, Cook etc. Some guys with promise 

Cook not a has been. White doesn’t have huge upside but he was an RB1 last year and should once again be in the top 12 this year

[weepaws]

1 hour ago, IGotWorms said:

Cook, Mixon, White, Harris? A veritable row of has beens and never-wases.

Give me Pacheco, Cook etc. Some guys with promise 

Can you please pick aside for Cook, you have on the good, and naughty list.  Thanks 

[IGotWorms]

19 minutes ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

Cook not a has been. White doesn’t have huge upside but he was an RB1 last year and should once again be in the top 12 this year

Sorry I meant Jacobs there, not cook.

White is just not very effective. I think that matters. Got away with it last year but you know Tampa wants more

[Maximum Overkill]

There's should be some pretty good choices there, especially for your RB2. I'd just let the board fall how it may. Someone will slip up somewhere. 

[Super Cubs]

try a draft simulator.  It will give you a general idea of who might be there in round 4.

[Ray_T]

10 hours ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

Cook not a has been. White doesn’t have huge upside but he was an RB1 last year and should once again be in the top 12 this year

no, he likely does have football left in him, but at an ADP in the 10th round I'd suggest you dont pick him in round 4.   if you like him it is better to wait until at least round 8 before pulling the trigger.  no point paying the price of a 4th when you can have him in the 8th or later.

[DocNiner]

Certainly there will be some decent rbs going into the 4th round. There' a few mentioned I like. Even with all the receiving options in Houston Mixon could do well for you. Racaad White has upped his receiving game.and should be as good as last year. I know the Steelers have 2rbs.to carry the load in Warren.and Harris yet Najee Harris has extra incentive being in a contract year. Looking for a Longshot and not necessarily your 2nd rb  but maybe a 3rd, Raiders RB Zamir White. Not much behind him so he'll get the bulk of carries. He did good filling in for Jacobs. Only concern would be how good will the passing game be and who's the QB. White may get some.stacked boxes but I still like him

[Ray_T]

On 7/14/2024 at 11:49 AM, Maximum Overkill said:

There's should be some pretty good choices there, especially for your RB2. I'd just let the board fall how it may. Someone will slip up somewhere. 

someone almost always does.

[listen2me 23]

On 7/14/2024 at 1:56 AM, Ray_T said:

ok to answer your question first I'm gonna put up the likely candidates (based on ADP)

1) Etienne (ADP 45)-  if he falls to you.  I suspect he goes early.

2)  Pacheco (ADP 44)-not sexy but a solid player.  just not 100% suited to PPR play.   it did look like they are running a few more routes with him later in the year.  so his receiving numbers may bump up a bit this year and that could be enough to make him a reasonable value pick at this point in the draft.

3) Jacobs (adp 54)-better team, better situation.   but hes got a lower floor and higher ceiling than he had last year.

4) Mixon (ADP 61)-Hou-  Mixon was running behind what might have been one of the weaker lines.   part of this was due to injuries on the line.  either way, hes running in a better situation.  I expect a bounceback year.

5 James Cook  ADP 60-might be a sneaky good pick.  guy looks talented enough, but is stuck in an offense that likes to throw- a lot.   but given that all the WR's have departed they may lean on the run early in the season until the new WR's develop a chemistry with Josh Allen.

6.  Rachaad White (adp 63)-probably the least sexy pick here.  but he catches a lot of footballs.  you could do worse

7. Kenneth Walker (ADP 72)-I actually love this guy, but noting the coaching change its not a lock that he gets the volume hes had in the past

8 Kamara (ADP 75)-guy is a douche, but presents decent value in PPR leagues at this ADP.   Not sure you wanna take him in round 4 but its an option

 9  Naj Harris ADP 86-this rises if they announce hes for sure going to be the starter on day 1 of the regular season)   and I like that he is playing for a contract.

This is most likely the top candidates if you are looking in round 4 for a RB in PPR.

there are others  these are the ones you are most likely to have left.

 

Packers fan.  Not real high on Jacobs in fantasy, not sure I suppose.  

But outside of miles on the tires why would his floor be lower?  He will be in more positions to score TDs and thr Packers should br up in games more than the Raiders.   

[Ray_T]

2 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

Packers fan.  Not real high on Jacobs in fantasy, not sure I suppose.  

But outside of miles on the tires why would his floor be lower?  He will be in more positions to score TDs and thr Packers should br up in games more than the Raiders.   

yeah, hes only 26 still.   guy has been fairly durable throughout his career.

I dont anticipate that he will be the #1 back in football ever again, but I think his numbers will improve moderately in Green Bay just because its a better team so he will get more red zone opportunities.   line is better too, so YPC may go up a bit but his usage should remain about the same

[listen2me 23]

2 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

yeah, hes only 26 still.   guy has been fairly durable throughout his career.

I dont anticipate that he will be the #1 back in football ever again, but I think his numbers will improve moderately in Green Bay just because its a better team so he will get more red zone opportunities.   line is better too, so YPC may go up a bit but his usage should remain about the same

Look out for the rookie Marshawn Lloyd.  By mid season he could really carve out a sizeable role. 

[weepaws]

Jacobs should have a rb1 season.  

[GobbleDog]

2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

yeah, hes only 26 still.   guy has been fairly durable throughout his career.

I dont anticipate that he will be the #1 back in football ever again, but I think his numbers will improve moderately in Green Bay just because its a better team so he will get more red zone opportunities.   line is better too, so YPC may go up a bit but his usage should remain about the same

Jacobs enters his 6th season with 1,500+ touches and just had a career worst performance - blame it all on the crappy Raiders if ya like, but his stats were good the year prior on a similarly bad team. The Packers o-line should be better, but they also face the most difficult schedule against the run this year. Then there's 3rd round rookie Marshawn Loyd who could eventually become the main goal-line Rb, and potentially take most early down work if Jacob's efficiency doesn't improve.

That's a lot of red flags for Rb 14, a mid-4th round pick.

[weepaws]

I blame it on too much work load in 2022.  390 plus touches does cause sone effect on Rbs with that many touches.   

Jacobs, much better situation, coming back from his bad season, oh I hope I can get him on both of my teams.  Very good ADP. 

[Ray_T]

24 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Jacobs enters his 6th season with 1,500+ touches and just had a career worst performance - blame it all on the crappy Raiders if ya like, but his stats were good the year prior on a similarly bad team. The Packers o-line should be better, but they also face the most difficult schedule against the run this year. Then there's 3rd round rookie Marshawn Loyd who could eventually become the main goal-line Rb, and potentially take most early down work if Jacob's efficiency doesn't improve.

That's a lot of red flags for Rb 14, a mid-4th round pick.

yeah but there are positives too.  I think he was among the leaders in Yards after first contact though I have not verified that.  I'm going strictly from memory so if I'm wrong, someone correct me.   

[GobbleDog]

8 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

yeah but there are positives too.  I think he was among the leaders in Yards after first contact though I have not verified that.  I'm going strictly from memory so if I'm wrong, someone correct me.   

Per Fantasypros Advanced RB Stats...  Jacobs had 1.3 yds after contact per attempt. By comparison Z. White on that same Raiders team had 2.2. Breece Hall was 2.2, McCaff 2.1. etc.  In 2022, Jacobs had an insane 2.4  It was consistent with PlayerProfiler.com rankings in key metrics like:

True yac (63rd), yds per touch (49th), juke rate (53rd), breakaway rate (48th), yds created per touch (49th)

A pretty steep decline from 2022:

True yac (23rd), yds per touch (18th), juke rate (11th), breakaway rate (31st), yds created per touch (13th)

I'm not saying he's washed... but he might be. Guess we'll find out this year. I wouldn't want to gamble my 4th round pick on it. Especially not with Loyd there. I will say the saving grace for Jacobs is the receptions, as Loyd ain't taking those.  Probably finishes with 50+ receptions.

[Ray_T]

2 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Per Fantasypros Advanced RB Stats...  Jacobs had 1.3 yds after contact per attempt. By comparison Z. White on that same Raiders team had 2.2. Breece Hall was 2.2, McCaff 2.1. etc.  In 2022, Jacobs had an insane 2.4  It was consistent with PlayerProfiler.com rankings in key metrics like:

True yac (63rd), yds per touch (49th), juke rate (53rd), breakaway rate (48th), yds created per touch (49th)

A pretty steep decline from 2022:

True yac (23rd), yds per touch (18th), juke rate (11th), breakaway rate (31st), yds created per touch (13th)

I'm not saying he's washed... but he might be. Guess we'll find out this year. I wouldn't want to gamble my 4th round pick on it. Especially not with Loyd there. I will say the saving grace for Jacobs is the receptions, as Loyd ain't taking those.  Probably finishes with 50+ receptions.

its hard to say if those stats happened because of him or because he was on a bad team.  but yeah I get it.

[IGotWorms]

40 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Per Fantasypros Advanced RB Stats...  Jacobs had 1.3 yds after contact per attempt. By comparison Z. White on that same Raiders team had 2.2. Breece Hall was 2.2, McCaff 2.1. etc.  In 2022, Jacobs had an insane 2.4  It was consistent with PlayerProfiler.com rankings in key metrics like:

True yac (63rd), yds per touch (49th), juke rate (53rd), breakaway rate (48th), yds created per touch (49th)

A pretty steep decline from 2022:

True yac (23rd), yds per touch (18th), juke rate (11th), breakaway rate (31st), yds created per touch (13th)

I'm not saying he's washed... but he might be. Guess we'll find out this year. I wouldn't want to gamble my 4th round pick on it. Especially not with Loyd there. I will say the saving grace for Jacobs is the receptions, as Loyd ain't taking those.  Probably finishes with 50+ receptions.

As somebody else said here — how often does an RB become “unwashed”?

I am sure there are some examples. Leonard Fournette perhaps? But it ain’t often.

[GobbleDog]

3 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

As somebody else said here — how often does an RB become “unwashed”?

I am sure there are some examples. Leonard Fournette perhaps? But it ain’t often.

  Good point. Quick Google search... don't see much. Limited examples I read: "Edgerin James, Ricky Williams, Jerome Bettis, Doug Martin." 

But those are dramatic cases. Probably see some Rb metrics improve occasionally year-to-year... though they ultimately always trend down.

[weepaws]

39 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

  Good point. Quick Google search... don't see much. Limited examples I read: "Edgerin James, Ricky Williams, Jerome Bettis, Doug Martin." 

But those are dramatic cases. Probably see some Rb metrics improve occasionally year-to-year... though they ultimately always trend down.

J Jacobs.  Played in 15 games in 2021, he had 872 rushing yards 4.0 avg 9 tds 54 rec.  

2022 on the same team,  1653 rush yards 12 tds, 53 rec.   

Don’t see him matching those number, but 1000 rush yards plus 50 plus rec so around 1300 plus total yards , and I think he scores hi# first ever rec td, I say 10 total tds.   

So put Jacobs name on the unwashed list.  

[Ray_T]

well, the RB numbers most often mirror what the team is doing.

if the team is winning in the 2nd half, Jacobs will get a lot more work against what is often a tired defense.    Raiders were quite often playing from behind,  so he did not have this advantage last year.   In  his new home, I see a far more favourable outcome.  even if his YPC isnt what it was last year.

[jrokh]

5 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

I wouldn't want to gamble my 4th round pick on it.

4th rd pick? I'd snag him with my 2nd rounder and feel fine with it. He'll be gone by the end of rd 2 in my main league fo sho...

[GobbleDog]

27 minutes ago, jrokh said:

4th rd pick? I'd snag him with my 2nd rounder and feel fine with it. He'll be gone by the end of rd 2 in my main league fo sho...

Fantasypros Rb 14

ESPN Rb 15

FFToday Rb 14

Yahoo Rb 10

...................................

Rb 14 in ppr is typically 4th round. 

[jrokh]

45 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Fantasypros Rb 14

ESPN Rb 15

FFToday Rb 14

Yahoo Rb 10

...................................

Rb 14 in ppr is typically 4th round. 

Only simps go by those rankings, especially in early July…

[Ray_T]

4 hours ago, jrokh said:

Only simps go by those rankings, especially in early July…

at this point its the best we got.   the rankings of various sources and ADP reports.

that said, if you've done your homework on a player and you feel strongly maybe you draft that player early.

but my thought is that if you see a 4th round ADP on Jacobs and you REALLY wanna get him, you take him in round 3.     while it may depend where in the round you are drafting,  In most cases round 2 is too early.

my best quote for this sort of thing.....  a Honda Civic may be a good car, but you dont pay the price of a cadillac for that Honda Civic even if its the last car on the lot.

Drafting him in round 2 is the fantasy version of paying the price of a cadillac for that Honda civic.

you're getting a nice player but the upside is eaten up by the draft position and that upside is what wins you drafts.

 

 

[weepaws]

10 hours ago, Ray_T said:

at this point its the best we got.   the rankings of various sources and ADP reports.

that said, if you've done your homework on a player and you feel strongly maybe you draft that player early.

but my thought is that if you see a 4th round ADP on Jacobs and you REALLY wanna get him, you take him in round 3.     while it may depend where in the round you are drafting,  In most cases round 2 is too early.

my best quote for this sort of thing.....  a Honda Civic may be a good car, but you dont pay the price of a cadillac for that Honda Civic even if its the last car on the lot.

Drafting him in round 2 is the fantasy version of paying the price of a cadillac for that Honda civic.

you're getting a nice player but the upside is eaten up by the draft position and that upside is what wins you drafts.

 

 

Knowing ones league is always helpful when to targeting players.  

Like in my 14 team non ppr league,  I need to move adp up at least two rds based on number of teams.  

But he always said Jacobs won’t last pass rd two, so he knows his league.  

[IGotWorms]

15 hours ago, jrokh said:

Only simps go by those rankings, especially in early July…

I don’t think you know what a “simp” is

[WhiteWonder]

On 7/13/2024 at 5:58 PM, jtztdm said:

I play in a ppr league and usually don't draft my 2nd rb to the 4th rd. Any advice on any potential sleepers or decent rbs that I could target .....tia

First off, there really are no sleepers in FF anymore. It's more values than sleepers.... but even if we use that term, no RB in round 4 is going to qualify as a sleeper. These are top 50 players we are talking about. 

4th round, Pacheco and Etienne are the two you hope are still there.  After them it's the likes of Jacobs, Mixon, Cook, R.White.   

[WhiteWonder]

On 7/14/2024 at 1:56 AM, Ray_T said:

ok to answer your question first I'm gonna put up the likely candidates (based on ADP)

 

5 James Cook  ADP 60-might be a sneaky good pick.  guy looks talented enough, but is stuck in an offense that likes to throw- a lot.   but given that all the WR's have departed they may lean on the run early in the season until the new WR's develop a chemistry with Josh Allen.

 

 

one of the most disappointing things as a Cook owner last year was how little he was used in the short passing game.  Just 19th in targets among RBs but caught 44 of his 54 and was 8th in receiving yards among RBs