WR Aiyuk: Trade Me

[nobody 2,335]

 

 

[League Champion 1,656]

11 minutes ago, nobody said:

 

 

Patriots gonna Patriot 

[Ray_T 687]

52 minutes ago, nobody said:

Probably Amari and a 3rd.

There is usually a penalty when you have to pay a guy.

yep. but the guy going the other way is getting paid too.   the two likely cancel each other out to some extent.

[IGotWorms 3,831]

1 hour ago, nobody said:

 

 

Translation: Aiyuk spurned them.

Like Ridley did in free agency.

Tough time to be a Pats fan  

[Ray_T 687]

17 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Translation: Aiyuk spurned them.

Like Ridley did in free agency.

Tough time to be a Pats fan  

oh how the mighty have fallen lol

[Chickie 52]

How about them Chargers? No Keenan Allen, ditto BMW and Eckler. 

[League Champion 1,656]

7 minutes ago, Chickie said:

How about them Chargers? No Keenan Allen, ditto BMW and Eckler. 

They should definitely be in those conversations, as well as Buffalo & Denver

[TBayXXXVII 2,328]

9 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Translation: Aiyuk spurned them.

Like Ridley did in free agency.

Tough time to be a Pats fan  

 

9 hours ago, Ray_T said:

oh how the mighty have fallen lol

Heard on the Fantasy Sports channel (Sirius/XM), that the Steelers were one of the first teams that the 9ers gave permission to, to talk to Aiyuk's agent about a new deal and they said "no thanks".  I'm thinking that's what New England did too.  The word is that Aiyuk was looking for Justin Jefferson money... and I don't think many teams think he's worth that.

[gridiron whirlwinds 5]

I am hoping the Browns stand pat and especially if Aiyuk wants around 30 million per year

[kcBlitzkrieg 29]

Best Value for this season:  Browns

Worst Value for this season:  Patriots 

Best Value for Dynasty:  Washington

Worst Value for Dynasty:  Idk, TIE maybe ???  

 

Niners are still best value for both this season and dynasty imho.  

[GobbleDog 909]

Aiyuk had 105 targets last year (to be fair missed a game).  Only four teams had their top receiving option finish with fewer targets - Patriots 79, Giants 79, Denver 90, Packers 96.

Obviously the reason being San Fran has a lot of mouths to feed between Aiyuk, Samuel, McCaff, Kittle, second stringers, and now their new 1st rd rookie Wr Pearsall. Credit Aiyuk for making the most out of those targets and being so efficient despite a crazy high adot. 

So if he stays in San Fran, can he repeat?  I wouldn't bet on it at Wr 14+-. Too many solid Wrs at that adp with considerably less target competition. If he goes to run-first Cleveland with worthless Watson, I'd want a steep adp discount, which I doubt I'd get.

So regardless if he's traded or stays, think I'm out on Aiyuk.

[weepaws 2,812]

He had 114 targets in 2022, and was wr# 15.   I think if he stays with the Niners he can his current adp of Wr15.  

He has been good since he first  was drafted, his rookie season in 2020 he avg 15 points per game ppr in 12 games. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,328]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

Aiyuk had 105 targets last year (to be fair missed a game).  Only four teams had their top receiving option finish with fewer targets - Patriots 79, Giants 79, Denver 90, Packers 96.

Obviously the reason being San Fran has a lot of mouths to feed between Aiyuk, Samuel, McCaff, Kittle, second stringers, and now their new 1st rd rookie Wr Pearsall. Credit Aiyuk for making the most out of those targets and being so efficient despite a crazy high adot. 

So if he stays in San Fran, can he repeat?  I wouldn't bet on it at Wr 14+-. Too many solid Wrs at that adp with considerably less target competition. If he goes to run-first Cleveland with worthless Watson, I'd want a steep adp discount, which I doubt I'd get.

So regardless if he's traded or stays, think I'm out on Aiyuk.

I don't know... I kind of think the opposite, in regards to his potential in Cleveland.  Now, I say that based on the speculation being accurate.  Word was that a deal with the Browns will likely include Cooper going to San Fran.  If we look at what Cooper did last year, I think there's a chance he could be better in Cleveland than San Fran.

Last year in 15 games, Cooper had 128 targets and finished as WR20 (ppr format).  In the 8 games where he had Watson and Flacco (playing the whole game), he scored: 6.7, 16, 24.6, 14.9, & 24.9 (Watson), and 12.7, 20.9, & 51.5 (Flacco).  That's 21.5 points per game.  Even if you throw out the high and the low extremes, that's still 19 fpg.  Last year, both Cooper and Aiyuk had 6 games where they failed to at least 12 points.  For Cooper, 5 of those came without Watson and Flacco.

Cooper caught only 56.3% of his passes, overall.  In games with Watson and Flacco, he caught 65.8%.  I think that if Watson can stay healthy (and Cooper goes to San Fran), Aiyuk has a chance to be a top 10 WR.  I think his chances of that are better in Cleveland than with the 49ers.

[GobbleDog 909]

4 minutes ago, weepaws said:

He had 114 targets in 2022, and was wr# 15.   I think if he stays with the Niners he can his current adp of Wr15. 

Could be argued McCaff only played half a season in '22 and Deebo/Kittle missed some games. 

Aiyuk obviously could outperform his Wr 14 adp considering he was Wr 12 last year (wk 1-17) - Wr 13 in ppg.  Just doesn't seem like much upside.  If he's insanely efficient again... Wr 10 to 15. If he's not, then possibly much lower. Purdy had a mind-boggling passer rating of 113.0 last year which partly explains how Aiyuk was so efficient on all those deep passes. Can Purdy keep it up too? 

Think I'd rather draft a Wr in that adp range who likely gets the bulk of team targets.

[GobbleDog 909]

1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

 I think his chances of that are better in Cleveland than with the 49ers.

At least he'll get the bulk of targets there, I'll give ya that.

[TBayXXXVII 2,328]

9 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Think I'd rather draft a Wr in that adp range who likely gets the bulk of team targets.

 

7 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

At least he'll get the bulk of targets there, I'll give ya that.

There ya go.  

[weepaws 2,812]

Would definitely be in line for a bigger target volume with the Browns, I’m glad that the Patriots are no longer interested. 

[jrokh 585]

Steelers now the likeliest Aiyuk destination...

 

[weepaws 2,812]

Of the Steelers do get Aiyuk, Good news for the Steelers, not so good for ff 

[kcBlitzkrieg 29]

17 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Of the Steelers do get Aiyuk, Good news for the Steelers, not so good for ff 

On a related note.... what does this do to Pickens value ?? 

[GobbleDog 909]

Just now, kcBlitzkrieg said:

On a related note.... what does this do to Pickens value ?? 

I was wondering if Pickens is part of the trade deal. 

If not, it has to badly hurt his value as the 2nd banana on a run-first offense.

[TBayXXXVII 2,328]

14 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

I was wondering if Pickens is part of the trade deal. 

If not, it has to badly hurt his value as the 2nd banana on a run-first offense.

I would think the Steelers would make him a part of the package, because they're essentially the same type of player.

[GobbleDog 909]

11 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I would think the Steelers would make him a part of the package, because they're essentially the same type of player.

If he is included, then it's rather telling of what the Steelers think of Pickens - still on a rookie contract playing for peanuts in '24 and '25.

[weepaws 2,812]

I hope Pickens goes to the Niners.   

[TBayXXXVII 2,328]

33 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

If he is included, then it's rather telling of what the Steelers think of Pickens - still on a rookie contract playing for peanuts in '24 and '25.

They gave up on Pickett sooner.  LOL

I don't know if they're giving him up or not, but I think the fact that they're trading for someone who's similar to him in the first place tells us that already.

[Ray_T 687]

I dont know why Pittsburgh is in on this.   I think Pickens is fine.  1100 yards receiving playing with a QB who is no longer a pro starter.

Sure, Aiyuk put up a few more yards and a couple more TD but thats a function of playing on a better team and with a better QB.    I'd keep Pickens(who up to this point seems relatively drama free)  and be happy to live without the deva Aiyuk even if Aiyuk's numbers are slightly better.

As Pickens has an actual pro level starter tossing him the ball this year,  I do expect he will take another step forward in his production.   WR who can perform with a subpar QB are valuable commodities.   especially when still on a rookie contract.

[GobbleDog 909]

21 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I dont know why Pittsburgh is in on this.   I think Pickens is fine.  1100 yards receiving playing with a QB who is no longer a pro starter.

My total guess is Steelers coaches might think he's a one-trick pony. Great at catching bombs, but not the best route runner which was a knock on him out of college.

When I watch video on him, noticed not much zigging and zagging.  Either headed straight up-field or does a quit turnaround to catch the ball. But I'm no scout. 

[Ray_T 687]

4 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

My total guess is Steelers coaches might think he's a one-trick pony. Great at catching bombs, but not the best route runner which was a knock on him out of college.

When I watch video on him, noticed not much zigging and zagging.  Either headed straight up-field or does a quit turnaround to catch the ball. But I'm no scout. 

fair enough.  good info there.

[IGotWorms 3,831]

2 hours ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

On a related note.... what does this do to Pickens value ?? 

  

[weepaws 2,812]

Up if Pickens goes the Niners.  

[Ray_T 687]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Up if Pickens goes the Niners.  

San Fran will coach him up some.   but the coach there will sometimes sit a player if he doesnt do it his way.   so it adds risk if he goes there.    might be better for him long term, but possibly short term value goes down.

[Gepetto 1,148]

Pickens won't be part of the deal. Steelers can't be that poorly run of a franchise to do something so foolish. 

Amari Cooper shouldn't be part of a deal for Cleveland either, but they're poorly run so that's possible.

[Ray_T 687]

1 hour ago, Gepetto said:

Pickens won't be part of the deal. Steelers can't be that poorly run of a franchise to do something so foolish. 

Amari Cooper shouldn't be part of a deal for Cleveland either, but they're poorly run so that's possible.

Amari is also an older WR so you could argue the team is keeping their window open a little longer this way.   3 years from now Cooper will be in clear decline.   but San fran can draft someone this next offseason to eventually replace Amari.   Also it may solve a cap issue.   if Aiyuk is asking for 30 mil, Cooper provides a much more affordable option for them.

so I think the deal makes some sense to both sides.  its mostly about what kind of contract Amari is willing to sign for.

[weepaws 2,812]

6 hours ago, Ray_T said:

San Fran will coach him up some.   but the coach there will sometimes sit a player if he doesnt do it his way.   so it adds risk if he goes there.    might be better for him long term, but possibly short term value goes down.

No way,  if Pickens goes to the Niners, his adp is curtain to rise.  

[GobbleDog 909]

4 hours ago, weepaws said:

No way,  if Pickens goes to the Niners, his adp is curtain to rise.  

Pickens adp is currently Wr 26-28 range.  If he goes to Niners, people will expect Aiyuk -ish numbers. His adp probably won't rise to Aiyuk's Wr 14, but definitely higher than it is now. I'd guess Wr 20+-.

[nobody 2,335]

This might work out for SF.  If Aiyuk is expecting some crazy amount and no one will give it to him, will he end up realizing 49ers might be his best option?

[Ray_T 687]

32 minutes ago, nobody said:

This might work out for SF.  If Aiyuk is expecting some crazy amount and no one will give it to him, will he end up realizing 49ers might be his best option?

it is certainly possible.   usually the sign that you are asking too much is when the team gives you permission to negotiate with others.    that usually means the team isnt giving THAT to you.

now that other teams also are not giving him that money the hope would be that he would realize hes not worth THAT much.   but as someone who has dealt with people I can say there is no reasoning with some people.   so I dont know which bucket he fits into.  but there is a chance this happens.

[GobbleDog 909]

35 minutes ago, nobody said:

This might work out for SF.  If Aiyuk is expecting some crazy amount and no one will give it to him, will he end up realizing 49ers might be his best option?

I'd read the Niners didn't want to sign both Aiyuk and Samuel to monster contracts, and were hoping to make a final decision at season's end.

If the Steelers trade falls through and he plays the final year in San Fran, he's gonna want to ball-out to increase free agent value. What happens if the volume he wants isn't there? Diva time, disgruntled, or just accepts it? Could be awkward.

[kcBlitzkrieg 29]

Something holding up this deal now ??  "expected to be done by end of week"....  fascinating case study on negotiations we have here going on....  

 

Aiyuk and Pickens are not the "same" player by any means.  Aiyuk is a superior route runner and one of the highest efficiency per target guys in the NFL.  Is this more of a function of his X role in the Shanny offense than his talent ??  I'd say equally beneficial relationship between Aiyuk the player and the system he plays in. 

I'd venture to guess it is highly unlikely the Steelers trade Pickens in this deal.  If that were to happen, two things I'd be confident in moving forward would be 1)  Pickens value absolutely increases playing the X role in Shanny's offense.  2) Aiyuks value stays the same as #1 target in a worse off offense.  

As a Pickens dynasty owner, I'd rather see Pickens alone in the offense than with Aiyuk (for this season at least per the QB options).  If Pickens goes to Niners then that would be just as good imho.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,328]

4 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

I'd read the Niners didn't want to sign both Aiyuk and Samuel to monster contracts, and were hoping to make a final decision at season's end.

If the Steelers trade falls through and he plays the final year in San Fran, he's gonna want to ball-out to increase free agent value. What happens if the volume he wants isn't there? Diva time, disgruntled, or just accepts it? Could be awkward.

I think that's why they're trying to trade him... to avoid this.