Brian Robinson Jr.

[GobbleDog 985]

We all need mid/late round Rb gems, so is Brian Robinson Jr. worth the adp ? Fantasypros Rb 31, FFToday Rb 29

'22) 12 gm, 205 car, 797 yds, 3.9 ypc, 9 rec, 3 total Tds

'23) 15 gm, 178 car, 733 yds, 4.1 ypc, 36 rec, 9 total Tds

Finished Rb 21 last year despite missing two games (also Rb 21 in pt/gm). 3rd rd pick out of Alabama didn't start off with a bang. Bad pun, but might explain the poor metrics that rookie season. Those metrics improved a lot in '23 in spite of playing on a terrible team with coaches waiting to get fired. Washington overhauled the offense with a new coach, coordinator, Qb, and signed/drafted o-linemen.

Recently Youtubed some of his games. Not "highlights", just every carry/target from random games last year. I'm no NFL scout, but it's impressive. Patience, breaking tackles and surprisingly nimble for 6'2". Several plays he'd get hit in the backfield (bad o-line), but managed to make something out of nothing. Partly explains his impressive 9th overall ranking in Production Premium metric (situational comparison of play outcome to league avg). He also made beautiful catches and had a knack for getting open down the sideline. Finished with 10.2 yds per rec - highest among all Rbs with at least 20 rec. Though to be fair, a drop rate of 7%.

I think there's an over-reaction to Ekeler's signing happening. Ekeler wasn't given much money, and seems mostly like a replacement for Gibson. FFToday projects Robinson at 204 car, 836 yds, 32 rec, 7 Total Tds... good for Rb 27 last year. The numbers seem reasonable, but look like the absolute floor considering he was Rb 21 last year on a horrific team. Lastly, nobody ever talks about the run game coordinator/running back coach, but worth noting Washington hired Anthony Lynn who's track record with Rbs is impressive - Fred Taylor, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Shonn Green, LeSean McCoy, Melvin Gordon, McCaffery, etc.

Rb 30 ish...  think I'm buying. What say ye?

[Maximum Overkill 1,756]

4 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Rb 30 ish...  think I'm buying. What say ye?

I'm in at RB 30 for sure but I doubt he'll make it that far in most drafts. 

[GobbleDog 985]

7 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I'm in at RB 30 for sure but I doubt he'll make it that far in most drafts. 

The lowest rank I've seen is Espn at Rb 25... which projects to late 7th rd. So 8th rd is probably the last shot to draft him.

[weepaws 3,158]

In my 14 team non ppr, I’ll take Robinson low rb 2 , But would rather get him as a rb3.  

In my 12 team ppr, I’ll pass and take Ekler later.  

 

[Maximum Overkill 1,756]

6 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

The lowest rank I've seen is Espn at Rb 25... which projects to late 7th rd. So 8th rd is probably the last shot to draft him.

I'd have no problem taking him early 7th if there. He feels extremely safe 

[GobbleDog 985]

10 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I'd have no problem taking him early 7th if there. He feels extremely safe 

I feel the same. People are quick to write off a career. It's only his 3rd year and his metrics are trending upward. Barring injury feels like a lock for 200+ carries and doubtful he gets injured as 6'2" Rbs tend to be more durable. The two missed games late last year was just a grd 1 hammy sprain.

Youtube "Brian Robinson Jr. targets/carries"... not even the highlights, just a random game from last year. I was impressed. On the flip side I did that with Gus Edwards last year... ugh. Runs forward til touched and falls down. Robinson passes the eye test.

[Maximum Overkill 1,756]

4 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Robinson passes the eye test.

100% 

[nobody 2,580]

I'm definitely not excited about the commanders RB2.  He'll probably get the goal line work, but he's probably he's not only fighting Ekeler for attempts but Jayden Daniels too.

Speaking of Anthony Lynn wasn't he the Chargers coach when they drafted Ekeler? 

[GobbleDog 985]

50 minutes ago, nobody said:

I'm definitely not excited about the commanders RB2.  He'll probably get the goal line work, but he's probably he's not only fighting Ekeler for attempts but Jayden Daniels too.

Speaking of Anthony Lynn wasn't he the Chargers coach when they drafted Ekeler? 

Ekeler signing is why nobody is excited about Robinson. "Rb 2" ... c'mon. Robinson gets the bulk of carries and goal line, along with 30+ receptions. I'll give ya Daniels might steal some carries and Tds, but hell... have ya seen where Barkley, Taylor, and Cooks are getting drafted? Their Qb are guaranteed to cannibalize Tds and carries. We don't even know what Daniels role will be yet.

Yes, Lynn was Chargers coach with Ekeler and Melvin Gordon - both had some good years.

[nobody 2,580]

With a 7% drop rate it would be malpractice to ever throw him the ball while Ekeler's on the team.  

 

[GobbleDog 985]

5 minutes ago, nobody said:

With a 7% drop rate it would be malpractice to ever throw him the ball while Ekeler's on the team. 

   I hated to have to report that stat, but it jumped out while number crunching... so yeah. Not great. In his defense he did have some amazing catches last year, but I also saw some easy passes clank off his hands.

[IGotWorms 4,057]

He’s a good actual player but I’m not sure he’s so much a great fantasy player. Last year might’ve been his high water mark especially with Ekeler there now. I’d probably take him as my RB4 but I’m sure somebody else will value him more 

[weepaws 3,158]

Just completed a 12 team non ppr mock, I drafted him as my rb4.  Now that’s an excellent pick.  Thanks. 

[pooleman 0]

On 7/27/2024 at 12:14 PM, GobbleDog said:

I think there's an over-reaction to Ekeler's signing happening. Ekeler wasn't given much money, and seems mostly like a replacement for Gibson. FFToday projects Robinson at 204 car, 836 yds, 32 rec, 7 Total Tds... good for Rb 27 last year. The numbers seem reasonable, but look like the absolute floor considering he was Rb 21 last year on a horrific team. Lastly, nobody ever talks about the run game coordinator/running back coach, but worth noting Washington hired Anthony Lynn who's track record with Rbs is impressive - Fred Taylor, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Shonn Green, LeSean McCoy, Melvin Gordon, McCaffery, etc.

Rb 30 ish...  think I'm buying. What say ye?

I am in the same boat about Ekler. I think he is coming in to fill the shoes of Gibson where he will get some carries as well. Last year he missed 2 games and as you mentioned finished 21st in scoring. The offense should be better this year under new coaching with a better QB. I think anything above RB25 could be a steal. 

[GobbleDog 985]

10 minutes ago, pooleman said:

I am in the same boat about Ekler. I think he is coming in to fill the shoes of Gibson where he will get some carries as well. Last year he missed 2 games and as you mentioned finished 21st in scoring. The offense should be better this year under new coaching with a better QB. I think anything above RB25 could be a steal. 

Yeah, not big on Ekeler. Last year's metrics weren't pretty: True yac 62nd, Yds/touch 31st, Juke rate 36th.

"He'll get lots of receptions because he's the great Ekeler!" Maybe, but Gibson had the 15th most receptions (48) among Rbs last year... finished Rb 46 in pt/game (8.1). It takes volume and Tds in fantasy football - I'd be surprised if Ekeler gets much of either. His veteran presence might turn out to be a boost for Robinson, rather than diminishing like some view it.

[WhiteWonder 2,683]

I’m much more likely to roll the dice on Ekeler. I don’t believe he is totally shot, especially as a weapon in the pass game and less overall rush volume may help him regain some efficiency