Splits: Gibbs/Monty, Puka/Kupp, Houston WRS, and so on

[wolves111 83]

My question is this. Does it make more sense to draft the higher or lower adp players? Gibbs, Puka, in particular seem to be ready to be the alpha but at 1st round prices. Montgomery and Kupp going several rounds later but their production might not be that much lower.

A J Browns numbers aren’t much higher than D Smith but Smith can be had in round four. I’m sure we can identify many more examples.
How do you approach the value of players on teams with multiple weapons?

[pooleman 0]

I think it depends on where you are drafting and what type of league this is. PPR, 1/2 PPR or standard. I have been reading things about this myself.

With Gibbs and Montgomery, I think waiting on Montgomery may pay off, like you go WR-WR in the first round of a PPR. He was more consistent last year of the two. I think Gibbs will be more consistent than he was last year because they will be lining him up at WR at times meaning Monty stays on the field. 

You are correct about Brown and Smith, Brown was slightly more consistent last year out of the two but Smith's numbers declined some from the prior year. Smith provides an amazing value as a #3WR should you go WR-WR-RB-WR in a PPR and he is there in the 4th round

I think in your initial post, the gap between Puka and Kupp maybe wider than the other two. Last year Kupp showed his age at times with the injuries and when on the field was not as consistent in scoring as Puka. He will still have big games but I think they may be a little further apart than they used to be.

[GobbleDog 897]

I'll pay up for AJ Brown who I believe is a special talent and seems to be Hurts first read. Also Smith only weighs 170 lbs... incredible he's only missed 1 game in three years. Worried that durability might not last.

I'll pay up for Nacua. Rams coach has a way of force-feeding targets to players he likes, as he did with Kupp for years and Nacua last year. Kupp is clearly nearing the end. I prefer getting out a year early, than a year late.

I'd pay up for Collins over Diggs/Tank - have way more faith in Collins living up to that adp. But probably won't have to make that decision - in all likelihood I'm drafting DK Metcalf around that spot.

As for Gibbs vs Monty, Achane vs Mostert.... I'll take the #2 banana at drastically discounted prices.

[defectivesupport 8]

First I just want to put out there that I do not like paying ADP for the ceiling of a player in the first 2 rounds.  Those are rounds that I would rather get top 10 production than a bust, and chasing #1 when such a player has risk to drop out of the top 10 is not worth it in my opinion.  The two this year that fit this category for me are Gibbs and Collins. 

However, most of these depend on your risk tolerance for the pair. Lets talk about some of the options:

Puka Vs Kupp. both worth the current ADP.

Puka in games without kupp(4 games): Average of 9.8 receptions (13 targets), 125.3 yards, and 0.3 TDs per contest.

Puka in games with Kupp (12 games): Average of 5.2 receptions (8.5 targets), 78.7 yards, and 0.3 TDs per  (88 receptions, 145 targets, 1,337 yards, and 5.7 TDs if this was 17 games)

Kupp (12 games):  Average of 4.9 catches (7.9 targets), 61.4 yards, and 0.4 TDs per outing (83 receptions, 134 targets, 1043.8 yards, and 6.8 TDs if this was 17 games)

So even with the stats puka got when kupp was on the field, he would rank in the first 2 rounds.  Kupp, assuming he isn't injured, is around the 3rd round in stats.  So from there it is all up to how you feel the team will perform this year.  Will kupp be injured again? Will kupp return to form now that he isn't injured?  Will the rams have as good of an offense when their defense potentially isn't as dominant to get them good field position?  Will they get more points if arizona is competitive now and doesn't get blown out both games?   These are all hard to answer questions - but ones that need to be built into your risk tolerance.

AJ Brown vs D Smith:  This is the same imo - both worth the current ADP.

Gibbs vs Montgomery:  D Montgomery great value, Gibbs is all based on REC value.  I would draft montgomery not gibbs.

This pair ADP makes no sense to me based on stats (extrapolating to 17 games). 

Gibbs: 203 Rushes, 1071 yards,  11 TDs +  80tar,  59rec,  358 yards    

Montgomery: 265 rushes, 1232 yards 16 TDs +  29 tar,  19rec,  142 yards

Even in the playoffs - Montgomery got more work than Gibbs.  Gibbs is pretty much valued highly due to his rec count.  Montgomery is pretty severely undervalued as his 17 game totals would have been within 5 points of J taylor's last year.  

Nico Collins vs Diggs vs Dell: Stats to come later but in short, I'm passing on collins due to the risk that comes with too many mouths to feed.  This team seems like a great best ball - draft late type of group, but a risky investment in week to week play.

  

[wolves111 83]

21 minutes ago, defectivesupport said:

First I just want to put out there that I do not like paying ADP for the ceiling of a player in the first 2 rounds.  Those are rounds that I would rather get top 10 production than a bust, and chasing #1 when such a player has risk to drop out of the top 10 is not worth it in my opinion.  The two this year that fit this category for me are Gibbs and Collins. 

However, most of these depend on your risk tolerance for the pair. Lets talk about some of the options:

Puka Vs Kupp. both worth the current ADP.

Puka in games without kupp(4 games): Average of 9.8 receptions (13 targets), 125.3 yards, and 0.3 TDs per contest.

Puka in games with Kupp (12 games): Average of 5.2 receptions (8.5 targets), 78.7 yards, and 0.3 TDs per  (88 receptions, 145 targets, 1,337 yards, and 5.7 TDs if this was 17 games)

Kupp (12 games):  Average of 4.9 catches (7.9 targets), 61.4 yards, and 0.4 TDs per outing (83 receptions, 134 targets, 1043.8 yards, and 6.8 TDs if this was 17 games)

So even with the stats puka got when kupp was on the field, he would rank in the first 2 rounds.  Kupp, assuming he isn't injured, is around the 3rd round in stats.  So from there it is all up to how you feel the team will perform this year.  Will kupp be injured again? Will kupp return to form now that he isn't injured?  Will the rams have as good of an offense when their defense potentially isn't as dominant to get them good field position?  Will they get more points if arizona is competitive now and doesn't get blown out both games?   These are all hard to answer questions - but ones that need to be built into your risk tolerance.

AJ Brown vs D Smith:  This is the same imo - both worth the current ADP.

Gibbs vs Montgomery:  D Montgomery great value, Gibbs is all based on REC value.  I would draft montgomery not gibbs.

This pair ADP makes no sense to me based on stats (extrapolating to 17 games). 

Gibbs: 203 Rushes, 1071 yards,  11 TDs +  80tar,  59rec,  358 yards    

Montgomery: 265 rushes, 1232 yards 16 TDs +  29 tar,  19rec,  142 yards

Even in the playoffs - Montgomery got more work than Gibbs.  Gibbs is pretty much valued highly due to his rec count.  Montgomery is pretty severely undervalued as his 17 game totals would have been within 5 points of J taylor's last year.  

Nico Collins vs Diggs vs Dell: Stats to come later but in short, I'm passing on collins due to the risk that comes with too many mouths to feed.  This team seems like a great best ball - draft late type of group, but a risky investment in week to week play.

  

Excellent analysis 

[GobbleDog 897]

I'd prefer Godwin (Wr 33) over Evans (Wr 16).

Last year the Bucs inexplicably moved Godwin from slot role to split end... he finished with 12.4 pts/gm or Wr 38. This year the Bucs are moving Godwin back to slot. Godwin's previous years as the Bucs slot man:

'22) 15.2 pts/gm Wr 14

'21) 17.3 pts/gm Wr 8

'20) 15.9 pts/gm Wr 15

[jrokh 584]

This can be a dangerous game to play. There is no guarantee you get the other player where you are looking to draft him, and statistically you probably won't. Say you pass on AJ Brown because you'd rather grab Devonta smith in rd 4, and when rd 4 comes he gets snagged the pick right before you. Then you don't get either player. As boring as it is, following your draft board is the smart play. If AJ Brown is the highest ranked player when you are on the clock, that should be your pick...

[weepaws 2,735]

43 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

I'd prefer Godwin (Wr 33) over Evans (Wr 16).

Last year the Bucs inexplicably moved Godwin from slot role to split end... he finished with 12.4 pts/gm or Wr 38. This year the Bucs are moving Godwin back to slot. Godwin's previous years as the Bucs slot man:

'22) 15.2 pts/gm Wr 14

'21) 17.3 pts/gm Wr 8

'20) 15.9 pts/gm Wr 15

Read that, I think Godwins ADP is very good.  

[wolves111 83]

38 minutes ago, jrokh said:

This can be a dangerous game to play. There is no guarantee you get the other player where you are looking to draft him, and statistically you probably won't. Say you pass on AJ Brown because you'd rather grab Devonta smith in rd 4, and when rd 4 comes he gets snagged the pick right before you. Then you don't get either player. As boring as it is, following your draft board is the smart play. If AJ Brown is the highest ranked player when you are on the clock, that should be your pick...

That’s actually a very good point. 

[nobody 2,295]

I'd stay away from Kill, but I'd be happy with Montgomery over Gibbs.