TBayXXXVII Posted January 29 Posted January 29 Here's how I'm looking at it. What was the problems the Chiefs had last year? It wasn't the defense. They ranked 6th in points against and the prior year they were 4th. That side of the ball isn't the problem. I'm not saying Pat Mahomes "IS" the problem either. What I'm saying, is that Pat Mahomes is the problem. Not him the player/person, but him, the contract. Here's the deal. Mahomes is a $78M cap hit this year and the Chiefs are $56M over the cap right now, so it makes sense on restructuring and kicking the can down the road. The thing is, because they've been doing this for 3 (4? 5?), years now to where his cap hit for 2027 is already at $74M, so they can't push much more to next year (if they do, that's going to be what, a $90M cap hit?), they'll have to add it to 2028 to 2031, which are all, currently over $40M (the least year being over $48M). On top of that, Kelce isn't what he once was and he's a free agent. He can leave this season (or retire). Side note, Mahomes has $120M in voidable years money in 2032 & 2033 ($60M each). If the Chiefs trade Mahomes, he will be a net, $57M cap hit. So, why not trade him now? I know, the ACL, I get it. So what? Mahomes' base pay the next 2years is $45M, but the next 4 are $18M, $8M, $31M & $38M. With roster bonuses over the next 6 years, Mahomes will cost the team trading for him: 2026 $56 2027 $52 2028 $26 2029 $34 2030 $45 2031 $47 In today's NFL, that's not bad. Especially since a team trading for him, can release him after the 2029 season and not pay those last 2 seasons. Trade him now and take the $57M cap hit and not worry about it. Teams that I think could be in the market would be teams that have young QB's with question marks, but a good supporting cast... like Minnesota, Carolina, and Atlanta. Imagine pairing up Mahomes and Jefferson. That's not worth a trade venture? How about Carolina? They have a decision to make about Young, on whether to pick up his 5th year option. Well, you have a good OLine, a couple of young 1st WR's you just invested in over the last 2 seasons and 2 decent RB's. Atlanta has Robinson and London. McCarthy, Young, and Penix are all guys that could be included in a trade to give the Chiefs (and Reid), a new start... or at least a starting point. Now, the cost would be more than just those young QB's because they are question marks, but it would reduce the draft pick compensation. Quote
Showboat Posted January 29 Posted January 29 About as crazy as BB not being a first-ballot hall-of-famer (so not saying it couldn't happen), but it would be a foolish move by the Chiefs. It would be like the Patriots trading away Brady circa 2009/2010 after his injury when the Patriots had a bit of a lull. When you have a franchise QB, you try to put the pieces around him and ride him until the wheels fall (maybe a move to be made when the QB is approaching 40, no way in his early 30s) Quote
TBayXXXVII Posted January 29 Author Posted January 29 The injury is a coincindence and not pertinent. Also, the situations aren't the same. Brady was constantly signing 2, 3, and 4 year deals... Mahomes signed a 10 year extension and still has 6 left. Brady was also signing deals that weren't going to hinder the Patriots movements. As noted, Mahomes is a $78M cap hit, next year (right now), it's at $74M. Now, Mahomes is trying to do the same with the Chiefs by constantly restructuring his deal, (which is fine), but at some point, they're going to have to pay the piper. That's not what the Patriots/Brady had to do. Mahomes' contract is in a state where every year, the cap hit is going to balloon. Like I said, this coming season it's a $78M hit and next year, after a restructure could be as high as $85 to 90M. It's also going to increase the hits on the following years. Right now, the last 4 around between $42-$48M and they're only going to go up. After restructuing this year and next, those last 4 are going to look closer to these next 2 and it's only going to get worse. Normal practice is to take base pay and turn it into signing bonus money and spread it out over the remaining years. Also, it can be added to basepay for upcoming seasons. For example, when Mahomes originally signed his deal, his 2026 base pay was supposed to be $2.5M, right now it's $45M. In 2027, it's also $45M when it was supposed to be $10M. They've inflated these two years by a total of $78.65M. Now, I can see the argument to hold out 2 more years and cut bait after the 2027 season and take a $25M cap hit. The problem is, like I said, the Chiefs are alread over the cap by $56M with Mahomes being a $78M cap hit. Something has to be done. I don't think they're going to cut $70M off their payroll without touching Mahomes' contract. Assuming a restructure is coming, the 2027 cap hit is likely to go up to $85M (or more), with 2028 going up to probably $60M or more, as well as smaller increases to the remaining 3. That's going to equate to even more money after 2027 to be spread out over a shorter period of time and Mahomes will also be getting older and banged up more and the ROI will be dropping (if it isn't already). Right now, they can trade him and take a $57M hit and get a legit return to address holes and build, without having to deal with a Saints-like duldrum, who kept kicking the Drew Brees can down the road. The Saints still aren't that good, and they're going into this offeseason being over the cap by $40M. Personally, I think the right move for NFL teams is to never pick up a 5th year option. After Y3, give your QB a 5 year extension locking that guy in for a total of 9 years. With 1 or 2 left, trade that QB and not pay him the ultra high rates that teams are paying for "meh", like Dallas paying Dak $60M a year for never winning anything. If you don't give him the contract extension (because you don't think he's worth it), you have that draft and the following draft to replace him, then let him walk after Y4. I mean, if you don't think he's worth extending, how much better is he than a guy you're going to draft? Quote
LaChup Posted January 29 Posted January 29 I would trade him for two first round picks in Dynasty. His last name don't reflect my scores the past few years. Quote
weepaws Posted January 29 Posted January 29 BB isn’t a first rd HOF. I would trade him, better for the team Quote
nobody Posted January 29 Posted January 29 You don't trade him. Better play is to absorb as much of the cap hits you can this year and next even if it means bad years. Then cap rises every year and you can actually put a team around him after you get over the hump. What they'll probably do is restructure again and keep pushing the cap hit out, but this is the best time to just bottom out and eat as much cap hit as possible since he'll be recovering most of next year. Quote
weepaws Posted January 30 Posted January 30 Yea, you don’t trade him, how silly. And BB should be a first rd HOF. Quote
TBayXXXVII Posted January 30 Author Posted January 30 15 hours ago, nobody said: You don't trade him. Better play is to absorb as much of the cap hits you can this year and next even if it means bad years. Then cap rises every year and you can actually put a team around him after you get over the hump. What they'll probably do is restructure again and keep pushing the cap hit out, but this is the best time to just bottom out and eat as much cap hit as possible since he'll be recovering most of next year. Well yeah, that's what they will do, I'm saying what they should do. I believe the gap in play between Mahomes and his peers is closing while the gap in cost between Mahomes and his peers in widening. After they restructure his deal, either next years cap hit increases by $10M (requiring a greater restructure next year), or more money will be added to subsequent years putting them in the $70M range. Assuming Kelce wants to come back, they're going have to find money for him. They're only going to be able to move about $40M from Mahomes' contract and they're $56M over the cap. They have another $30 to $40M move to even look at free agents (and retaining Kelce). On top of that, they'll need to re-sign Rice. Now he won't impact this year, but he will next year, so the restructure of Mahomes' contract will have an impact on that as well. Right now, I think is the highest Mahomes' trade value will be. They can get a good return and it will only be at a cap cost of $57M. The longer they kick the can down the road, the more the diminishing returns, the longer the financial impact. The Saints are still in cap heII from Drew Brees. They're going into Y6 of irrelevance. Sean Payton knew that, it's why he left. Quote
jrokh Posted January 30 Posted January 30 If the Chiefs were foolish enough to trade Mahomes who would their QB be? Malik Willis? They would be better off tanking and try to go after Arch Manning, or whoever. Is that what you are suggesting? Besides if the cap is such an issue they could always do what Philly does and add a whole bunch of void years and push the money way into the future... I'll also add that according to Over the Cap Mahomes is only 15th of QB's in fully guarantees at 63 million +. His contract is much lower than a lot of other QB's... Quote
TBayXXXVII Posted January 30 Author Posted January 30 No, I'm suggesting that if there's a team in contention that has a young QB that they like, now would be a time to try and orchestrate a deal to include that QB. IF the Chiefs feel that someone like McCarthy, Young, Penix, or even Stroud, is a pplayer they feel that they can build around, they can make a deal to include one of those guy in return. Regardless, any team trading for Mahomes wouldn't need their QB so there's no reason not to make that guy a part of the deal. So, there's no reason to "tank" because they'd only make the deal if they believe in one of those young (cheap), QB's. If not, that's fine, they can proceed as they are. I'm merely suggesting that this would be the best time to go through this process. That said, the reason they target a team with a QB on their rookie deal, is so that they can handle the impact of the cap hit they're going to take from trading Mahomes and still make a deal to sign said QB to an extension that doesn't have the $70M to $100M future yearly cap hits. Kelce is either going to need a new deal or be replaced by the Chiefs. They're $56M over the cap. They can only move $40M by restructuring Mahomes. Meaning, if they want to re-sign Kelce, have operating costs for the 2026 season, have money for free agents, and have money for draft picks, they're going to still need to free up another $40M (give or take). This is possibly something they can address in a trade. For example, maybe Kelce leaves (via retirement or as a free agent), a deal with the Vikings could include McCarthy (giving them a replacement QB), Jordan Addison (giving them a #2 WR to pair with Rice as a second passing option, replacing Kelce), Van Ginkel (since he has 1 year left on his deal), and pick #18. Mahomes' base pay is 4th and his cap hit of $78M is 2nd in the league. Not sure what Over the Cap is talking about in guarantees, maybe just the roster bonus this year and next? But Spotrac does say his total guarantees are 14th at $141M. That'll change after the restructure. Quote
weepaws Posted January 30 Posted January 30 Yeah, that’s the move, trade him for a younger, cheaper less talented Qb, it’s a good move, it saves lives. 1 Quote
Showboat Posted January 30 Posted January 30 Maybe the Chiefs can replace Mahomes with a pro-bowler like Shedeur Sanders or Joe Flacco. Quote
Gepetto Posted January 31 Posted January 31 They're not winning without him so they should keep him. Also, see Dallas Mavericks fans, and the Luka Doncic trade. You don't trade the best player in the league away. You find a way. Even if they never win another Super Bowl they should keep Mahomes until he's old. There are 32 teams, and they have a window with him. If Plan B is trading Mahomes away, then Plan B is NOT winning a Super Bowl for the next 8 years plus. Quote
weepaws Posted January 31 Posted January 31 Yeah, not winning without him, wait, they didn’t win with him this past season, darn it. Quote
Super Cubs Posted January 31 Posted January 31 For what it will take to keep him and looking at what Houston got for Watson. It's something to think about. Quote
JagFan Posted January 31 Posted January 31 Trade him to Arizona for Kyler Murray and picks. Murray fits Reid’s offense and could win games in that scheme. Quote
weepaws Posted January 31 Posted January 31 Yeah, that should do something foolish like trading for Murray. Awesome Quote
Gepetto Posted February 1 Posted February 1 7 hours ago, JagFan said: Trade him to Arizona for Kyler Murray and picks. Murray fits Reid’s offense and could win games in that scheme. "You serious, Clark?" Beside the obvious player differences, and extra draft picks,.. Kyler Murray is in the middle of a 5-year, $230.5 million extension signed in 2022 that runs through 2028 Patrick Mahomes is in the fifth year of a 10-year, $450 million extension (signed in 2020) with the Kansas City Chiefs that runs through 2031 I'm just saying Kyler Murray's salary and cap hit isn't helpful. Quote
JagFan Posted February 1 Posted February 1 11 hours ago, Gepetto said: "You serious, Clark?" Beside the obvious player differences, and extra draft picks,.. Kyler Murray is in the middle of a 5-year, $230.5 million extension signed in 2022 that runs through 2028 Patrick Mahomes is in the fifth year of a 10-year, $450 million extension (signed in 2020) with the Kansas City Chiefs that runs through 2031 I'm just saying Kyler Murray's salary and cap hit isn't helpful. Yea, I gotta be honest with you…I don’t get that deep into it. I’m just on here reading what people are thinking as entertainment, and to keep up on the latest fantasy news. I just assumed Kyler would be waaaaay cheaper than Mahomes. But now that I know what you just laid out it makes so much more sense why Arizona isn’t very good….they ain’t smart! Quote
Ray_T Posted February 14 Posted February 14 I guess I will chime in. I guess now wouldnt be a terrible time to trade mahomes if he was healthy. but hes coming off an ACL injury that likely makes teams look at that huge cap hit and cringe. I do think in the right situation he can still play. This year if he plays on opening night Id suggest hed basically be a drop back QB. he wont do a lot of scrambling due to the ACL and he wont look like the Mahomes you've seen until perhaps late in the year. (or possibly next season) so if you are a team looking to buy, there needs to be a significant discount for this 'down year' and the fact hes got this huge injury and hes now on the wrong side of 30. realistically the best move for KC is to eat it and wait it out. if they draft well, they can likely restock the shelves (so to speak). for that reason I would try not to bring him back for week 1. I'd wait til at least mid or (more likely) late season and make sure his rehab is fullly good. maybe give him a couple starts at the end of the year if hes up for it. hes young enough that if he makes a full recovery, he still could be an elite player in this league. hes not your typical running QB. dude can actually sling it and is accurate in his throws and reads. for that reason he should still have 4-5 years left if he successfully recovers from this. Quote
GobbleDog Posted February 15 Posted February 15 I assume this is all a philosophical question because there's no way in hell they move on from Mahomes after all those SuperBowl wins and appearances. To answer the question... moving on is probably technically correct. The injury, the cap hit... and they've still got Reid who seems to be able to mold any Qb into a superstar. He's 67 so they're probably down to their last few years with him being so dominate. Trade Mahomes for picks, and reload. But... ain't happening. Quote
weepaws Posted February 16 Posted February 16 Would make sense, but , can’t see it taking place. Quote
weepaws Posted February 16 Posted February 16 Yea, some teams like being avg for periods of time. Quote
TBayXXXVII Posted February 17 Author Posted February 17 On 2/15/2026 at 3:34 PM, GobbleDog said: I assume this is all a philosophical question because there's no way in hell they move on from Mahomes after all those SuperBowl wins and appearances. To answer the question... moving on is probably technically correct. The injury, the cap hit... and they've still got Reid who seems to be able to mold any Qb into a superstar. He's 67 so they're probably down to their last few years with him being so dominate. Trade Mahomes for picks, and reload. But... ain't happening. Yes, it's a question about what's the "smart" move, not what would teams do. At the time, the "smart" move was to lock Mahomes in, as long as they can, to maximize their window for winning. I think that window is on it's last leg. I do think Kelce's decision on signing (and for how much), retiring, or leaving via free agency is the key cog. I have no idea what he's doing. I think Mahomes is a capable QB, and still will be for a while. The issue is, is he the same guy that was the difference maker from just a couple years ago. I think the answer is "No". I still think he can win a Super Bowl and help a team do it. I just don't think he'll be "the reason". I don't think the Chiefs can continue to pay him to "the reason", when he isn't that anymore, and still win. Now, if Kelce stays and the Chiefs don't have to do a lot of fancy pants math, then I'd say give it another go. The thing is, Rice is the only offensive playmaker they have and this season is the last year that he's going to be cheap. They're going to need their defense to be great and I don't think they can continue that by constantly having to shave money here and there to make up for the difference that restructuring Mahomes' contract can't do. As stated in the OP, they're more than $55M over the cap and I'm not sure how much they can cut from Mahomes. His base pay is $45M. Let's say they turn $44M of that into bonus money and reduce his pay to $1M. Well, that can't be his only cap hit. Some of that $44M will have to be bonus money. Let's call his cap hit for this season to drop from $78M to $35M, some how saving them $43M. That'll leave me over the cap by $12M. Well, they're going to need to have about $8M for draft picks and another $8M (approximately), for a buffer for in-season roster moves. So, let's add that $16M on and now they still need to cut $28M from the roster and still re-sign Kelce. Where's the money coming from? According to Spotrac.com, Bryan Cook and Jalen Watson are UFA's who'll probably command a minimum of $12M AAV in new deals. Are the Chiefs going to have to let them walk? They have guys like Chris Jones, Jawaan Taylor, and Trey Smith, who can be restructured. Are they going to be able to keep all of them? Taylor is going into his last year. He can get a new deal. They can turn his $19M base pay into $2M, and save $17M. Great, that still has them $11M over the cap... and still haven't re-signed Kelce. I know fancy math can get done. The question is, how much, at what expense, and what's the benefit? Is the benefit just 1 more run? If so, is that worth it? I don't know. It depends on what the Chiefs think is out there, what they can do with that, and is it worth it. That's for the Chiefs to decide. I think they'll try to win again, but that doesn't mean that's the "smart" move. Quote
TBayXXXVII Posted February 17 Author Posted February 17 18 hours ago, nobody said: In no world does trading mahomes make sense. Ask Saints fans if they think running 2019 and 2020 with Brees was the right move (based on what's been happening ever since), or if they should've moved on from Brees after 2018. The move that makes sense isn't always the move that's most popular. Quote
Showboat Posted February 17 Posted February 17 30 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said: Ask Saints fans if they think running 2019 and 2020 with Brees was the right move (based on what's been happening ever since), or if they should've moved on from Brees after 2018. The move that makes sense isn't always the move that's most popular. A different situation - Brees was 39 in 2018 not 30. We get it, you think the smart move for the Chiefs is to try to trade Mahomes, load up on young talent with lower cap hits. There are probably just as many if not more people (including those getting paid to make Chiefs personnel decisions) that think that keeping Mahomes is the smart move. Unless you really think that Mahomes is done, it is a tough sell give up on his 30s decade and take the chance that you will be able catch lightning in a bottle again as well as hit on a bunch of draft picks. Quote
weepaws Posted February 17 Posted February 17 Hitting on draft picks, and replacement of great players is always a tough situation, I don’t think it’s a bad ideal, but, it’s probably not a good move. Quote
TBayXXXVII Posted February 17 Author Posted February 17 1 hour ago, Showboat said: A different situation - Brees was 39 in 2018 not 30. We get it, you think the smart move for the Chiefs is to try to trade Mahomes, load up on young talent with lower cap hits. There are probably just as many if not more people (including those getting paid to make Chiefs personnel decisions) that think that keeping Mahomes is the smart move. Unless you really think that Mahomes is done, it is a tough sell give up on his 30s decade and take the chance that you will be able catch lightning in a bottle again as well as hit on a bunch of draft picks. I didn't say that I think it's the smart move, I ASKED if that's the smart move. I see an argument for it and laid it out. The only counter argument I've heard was "No". That's more of a statement, not an argument. If someone can come on and say, "they can cut [here], or do [this], or sign [these]", great, I'm willing to listen... but that's not happening. I don't think Mahomes is "done", I said that in the very post you quoted. I said I don't think he's "the reason" they're better than everyone else, any more. I think others have caught up. I think the gap that used to be between Mahomes and everyone else in the upper echelon of QB's, no longer exists. I don't think you can pay a guy that kind of money (when I say that, I mean cap resources), and expect the results you were used to seeing. You don't like Brees 2018, let's go with Drew Brees 2010. From 2011 until 2020, the Saints had a winning record in 6 of his last 10 seasons and were 5-6 in the playoffs, never winning 2 playoff games in any one season. The consequences of that run has been 5 seasons (and counting), with the highest win total being 9 games (twice) and a .425 winning percentage, in the least productive division in the league over that span. Since Brees' departure 5 seasons ago, they're entering Year 6 of having the one of the worst cap situation in the league... this year, being $40M over the cap (this year, only the Chiefs are worse). Quote
Showboat Posted February 17 Posted February 17 Brees obviously didn't work out too well for the Saints, though he didn't really have the championship success that Mahomes has had and maybe the Saints just didn't do a good job filling in the team around him. The only real comparable is Brady. The Patriots were able to successfully plug and patch and reload throughout his 30s. I would think that would be the model for the Chiefs and Mahomes. The only reason for the Chiefs not to take that path is if they think the Mahomes is no longer elite (and that's what I mean by being 'done'). The argument for keeping Mahpmes is that It is not a smart move to just to give your competition an elite QB - you figure out the cap situation to keep him until your evaluation indicates he is no longer elite. That should not be an insurmountable task with continued cap growth (and I don't really care enough to dig through all the specific details unless the Chiefs actually want to put me on their payroll). I don't really don't get your distinction that he is not "the reason" the Chiefs are better than everyone else. I'd say that he was the primary reason the Chiefs were even somewhat competitive last season. Could the Chiefs be just as good with Burrow or Allen? Sure, but when they trade away Mahomes, they won't be getting Burrow or Allen (and if they did, they'd be in a similar cap situation anyways). Instead, they'll be stuck with Carson Wentz or Jacoby Brisset or hoping they hit on another winning lottery ticket in the draft. It's why teams teams with borderline or worse QBs (Tua, Kyler, Trevor, Dak....) make ridiculous commitments. Elite QBs are a rare commodity and you pay what's needed to keep them until you determine that they are no longer elite. Quote
Ray_T Posted February 18 Posted February 18 6 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said: I didn't say that I think it's the smart move, I ASKED if that's the smart move. I see an argument for it and laid it out. The only counter argument I've heard was "No". That's more of a statement, not an argument. If someone can come on and say, "they can cut [here], or do [this], or sign [these]", great, I'm willing to listen... but that's not happening. I don't think Mahomes is "done", I said that in the very post you quoted. I said I don't think he's "the reason" they're better than everyone else, any more. I think others have caught up. I think the gap that used to be between Mahomes and everyone else in the upper echelon of QB's, no longer exists. I don't think you can pay a guy that kind of money (when I say that, I mean cap resources), and expect the results you were used to seeing. You don't like Brees 2018, let's go with Drew Brees 2010. From 2011 until 2020, the Saints had a winning record in 6 of his last 10 seasons and were 5-6 in the playoffs, never winning 2 playoff games in any one season. The consequences of that run has been 5 seasons (and counting), with the highest win total being 9 games (twice) and a .425 winning percentage, in the least productive division in the league over that span. Since Brees' departure 5 seasons ago, they're entering Year 6 of having the one of the worst cap situation in the league... this year, being $40M over the cap (this year, only the Chiefs are worse). well, being over the cap is a normal consequence of winning. you renew contracts after winning a superbowl, the player is almost always getting a pay raise. at some point the salaries get to a point where you as a team cannot win the the cap structure you have and you need to cut bait on some players. sometimes that decision is done based on what is available in the draft (assuming the team has a high draft pick that particular year) I suspect the chiefs are somewhere close to that tipping point. given the state of Mahomes health, they may just throw in the towel for a year, let a couple free agents walk and bide their time. I dont think they get full value for mahomes. hes coming off of a major injury. likely has a down year if he plays. so I suspect they look into righting that cap situation. drafting a couple of difference makers, and play for next year. Quote
TBayXXXVII Posted February 18 Author Posted February 18 48 minutes ago, cmh6476 said: can we be done with this thread now TIA No problem. Quote
TBayXXXVII Posted February 18 Author Posted February 18 As @cmh6476 noted, the Chiefs restructured Mahomes' contract and did what was expected. Was it the right move? Quote
cmh6476 Posted February 18 Posted February 18 3 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said: As @cmh6476 noted, the Chiefs restructured Mahomes' contract and did what was expected. Was it the right move? absolutely 1 Quote
TBayXXXVII Posted February 18 Author Posted February 18 8 minutes ago, cmh6476 said: absolutely I think the restructure points to 2027 being Mahomes' last year in KC. His cap hit went from $74M to $85M next year with a base pay of $45.M. In 2028, his basepay is only $18M. I think that after this season, they restructure 2027 to add another $60M voidable year on to his contract and then trade him after that season. Going out on a limb here, but I think they draft a QB in R1 in 2027. Quote
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