TBayXXXVII Posted February 18 Author Posted February 18 12 hours ago, Ray_T said: well, being over the cap is a normal consequence of winning. you renew contracts after winning a superbowl, the player is almost always getting a pay raise. at some point the salaries get to a point where you as a team cannot win the the cap structure you have and you need to cut bait on some players. sometimes that decision is done based on what is available in the draft (assuming the team has a high draft pick that particular year) I suspect the chiefs are somewhere close to that tipping point. given the state of Mahomes health, they may just throw in the towel for a year, let a couple free agents walk and bide their time. I dont think they get full value for mahomes. hes coming off of a major injury. likely has a down year if he plays. so I suspect they look into righting that cap situation. drafting a couple of difference makers, and play for next year. Is it? How much is "normal"? The Eagles have been winning. They're almost $10M under the cap. Prior to Mahomes' restructure, the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Browns were the only teams who were $30M+ over the cap. The Chiefs just made their biggest move, and they're still $14M over the cap, which is 5th worst in the league. The other 4 in worse shape than them are: Cleveland @ $19.5M Dallas @ $31.5M Minnesota @ $40.6M New Orleans @ $41.7M There's not a lot of winning in that list of 4 teams. Agreed, the rubber will meet the road and the piper will need to be paid. That's kind of the point of the thread. Should the Chiefs do that a year early or are they going to do what the Chiefs are probably going to do and wait until it's a year late? Odds are, the latter and they'll be like the Saints in cap heII for most of the next decade (they're now entering into Y6 of being irrelevant and starting the season over the cap, since Brees' retirement). I think it'll come down to when Andy Reid moves on (a la Sean Payton). Like I just said in my prior post, I think the Chiefs draft a QB in the first round next year and Mahomes' last year will be 2027 (in KC). Reid's tenure will depend on the kid he drafts. Quote
Ray_T Posted February 19 Posted February 19 12 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said: Is it? How much is "normal"? The Eagles have been winning. They're almost $10M under the cap. Prior to Mahomes' restructure, the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Browns were the only teams who were $30M+ over the cap. The Chiefs just made their biggest move, and they're still $14M over the cap, which is 5th worst in the league. The other 4 in worse shape than them are: Cleveland @ $19.5M Dallas @ $31.5M Minnesota @ $40.6M New Orleans @ $41.7M There's not a lot of winning in that list of 4 teams. Agreed, the rubber will meet the road and the piper will need to be paid. That's kind of the point of the thread. Should the Chiefs do that a year early or are they going to do what the Chiefs are probably going to do and wait until it's a year late? Odds are, the latter and they'll be like the Saints in cap heII for most of the next decade (they're now entering into Y6 of being irrelevant and starting the season over the cap, since Brees' retirement). I think it'll come down to when Andy Reid moves on (a la Sean Payton). Like I just said in my prior post, I think the Chiefs draft a QB in the first round next year and Mahomes' last year will be 2027 (in KC). Reid's tenure will depend on the kid he drafts. fair points. but (to play devils advocate here) Mahomes IS only 30. he has a down year. Team needs a retool. So Maybe they trade away what they can. anyone willing or able to ride out a bad year may very well stay. but players are moving. I just dont think it will be mahomes. Assuming he recovers from his ACL hes only 31 at that point. there is time for a retool. a full rebuild is at least a 3 or 4 year committment This option at this point may actually be more attractive. Mahomes is under contract. the cap hit isnt going anywhere. Not yet anyways. its not like we are dealing with Tua. most elite QB's are good til 35 or 36. Mahomes qualifies. Lets face facts, given the money left on the contract, teams are not giving a whole lot of draft capital to get Mahomes. I really dont think they have a choice. Might as well see if they can make it work Quote
cmh6476 Posted February 19 Posted February 19 This fan base would go nuts if you trade Mahomes. Ticket sales would plummet. Fans are already kind of ticked they want to move to Kansas. It's a pipe dream to think Mahomes isn't going to be around for the next several years, for better or worse. Quote
weepaws Posted February 19 Posted February 19 Since KC will keep posting avg seasons', ticket sales will be going down even with the Mahomes dream. Quote
weepaws Posted February 19 Posted February 19 Rice seems to like abusing woman, pregnant woman. Shame. But he’s in good shape, the NFL, and the football team known as KC will help protect him. Quote
Ray_T Posted February 22 Posted February 22 On 2/19/2026 at 12:30 AM, weepaws said: Rice seems to like abusing woman, pregnant woman. Shame. But he’s in good shape, the NFL, and the football team known as KC will help protect him. how do you think he got in shape? maybe not the best way to do it..... Quote
weepaws Posted February 23 Posted February 23 On 2/21/2026 at 4:46 PM, Ray_T said: how do you think he got in shape? maybe not the best way to do it..... 5th. Quote
Ray_T Posted February 24 Posted February 24 5 hours ago, weepaws said: 5th. you dont need to take the 5th. You didnt do it. but he might....... unless there is something you arent telling us.... Quote
weepaws Posted February 24 Posted February 24 Taking it cause I don’t want to answer your question, how do you think he got into shape. Yea, 5th. Quote
TBayXXXVII Posted February 24 Author Posted February 24 18 hours ago, cmh6476 said: Chiefs free up more cap space Nice! Only $30M more to go. Quote
Ray_T Posted February 24 Posted February 24 17 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said: Nice! Only $30M more to go. They are getting into range where they can just cut someone and restructure a contract or two. a trade or two may go down as well. likely after the draft. its good to see whats coming into the organization before you go trading pieces. Quote
TBayXXXVII Posted February 24 Author Posted February 24 4 hours ago, Ray_T said: They are getting into range where they can just cut someone and restructure a contract or two. a trade or two may go down as well. likely after the draft. its good to see whats coming into the organization before you go trading pieces. Yes, but the thing is, they've made 2 big moves, possibly the two of the biggest they can make. That puts them where a lot of teams are... who haven't made any moves at all. That would be ideal, but they need to be under the cap on March 13th (?), I believe. So, the plus side is, according to Spotrac.com, they only need to cut $6M+ to get under the cap. After that, they'll need to cut money to sign Kelce (if he's going to re-sign). That's another, what, $10M? Then they need to have about $7M+ to sing draft picks, then another $7M+ for in-season moves. So after March 13th, they need to cut another $25M (after the $6M+), just to get them to 0. They have guys they can restructure or re-sign... guys like Jawaan Taylor - Entering a contract year with $19M on his base pay for this year. They can give him an extension where they turn his $19M base pay into $2M with $17M in a signing bonus. That'll give them enough money to get under the cap and sign Kelce. But, that's if they want to. My guess is that they cut him. They'll save $20M, but have a dead cap number of $7M, so it's only a $13M savings. Now, that gets them under the cap, but they need to replace him. Jaylon Moore - Entering a contract year with $14M in base pay. He's another guy that can be extended and create cap space. Kristian Fulton - They're probably cut him and create $5M of space. Like Taylor, they need to replace him. Drue Tranquill - Another guy they could cut to free up a few million, again, they'll need to replace him. Trent McDuffie - Will probably get a new deal because his pay is all base pay. They cut him, he's a $13M cap hit. The only way to make it work with him is to re-sign him turning his base pay into bonus money and freeing up space. It can be done, but what's going to happen is that they're kicking not just Mahomes' money down the road, they're adding crap to the road and making less there. I think they'll be ok this year, but I'm not so sure about 2027. Less sure about 2028. If I were a gambling man, I'd say their ceiling this year is the wild card. Probably the case for 2027 as well. Unless they strike gold somewhere, I think the dynasty is over. Quote
Showboat Posted February 24 Posted February 24 10 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said: It can be done, but what's going to happen is that they're kicking not just Mahomes' money down the road, they're adding crap to the road and making less there. I think they'll be ok this year, but I'm not so sure about 2027. Less sure about 2028. If I were a gambling man, I'd say their ceiling this year is the wild card. Probably the case for 2027 as well. Unless they strike gold somewhere, I think the dynasty is over. A couple years ago, some were posting about how it was a slam dunk that Mahomes would obliterate Brady's records for SB and conference championship appearances/wins. Now the dynasty is over? The truth is probably somewhere in between. To have a chance, the Chiefs will certainly need to reload and navigate some thorny cap situations, but a continually growing cap will help. In any case, it should be entertaining to see if Mahomes can conjure up a late career surge to rival Brady's. Quote
TBayXXXVII Posted February 24 Author Posted February 24 1 hour ago, Showboat said: A couple years ago, some were posting about how it was a slam dunk that Mahomes would obliterate Brady's records for SB and conference championship appearances/wins. Now the dynasty is over? The truth is probably somewhere in between. To have a chance, the Chiefs will certainly need to reload and navigate some thorny cap situations, but a continually growing cap will help. In any case, it should be entertaining to see if Mahomes can conjure up a late career surge to rival Brady's. Yes, I think it's over. The difference between Brady and Mahomes is that the Patriots never had to continually kick the can down the road and constantly eat a ton of dead money every year. Brady's contracts were 2 and 3 year extensions that were team friendly in the sense that it worked within the cap space without killing the team. Mahomes' contract is a growing beast, getting worse and worse every year. It's also not just Mahomes' contract either. Other players are getting restructured to make their contracts work because the restructure of Mahomes' contract isn't enough. Those guys are going to have expiring contracts that are going to eat into the cap that can't be kicked down the road any further. It's almost as if people think teams only have 1 player that they have to restructure to get under the cap, even the cap does always go up. Quote
Ray_T Posted February 24 Posted February 24 3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said: Yes, but the thing is, they've made 2 big moves, possibly the two of the biggest they can make. That puts them where a lot of teams are... who haven't made any moves at all. That would be ideal, but they need to be under the cap on March 13th (?), I believe. So, the plus side is, according to Spotrac.com, they only need to cut $6M+ to get under the cap. After that, they'll need to cut money to sign Kelce (if he's going to re-sign). That's another, what, $10M? Then they need to have about $7M+ to sing draft picks, then another $7M+ for in-season moves. So after March 13th, they need to cut another $25M (after the $6M+), just to get them to 0. They have guys they can restructure or re-sign... guys like Jawaan Taylor - Entering a contract year with $19M on his base pay for this year. They can give him an extension where they turn his $19M base pay into $2M with $17M in a signing bonus. That'll give them enough money to get under the cap and sign Kelce. But, that's if they want to. My guess is that they cut him. They'll save $20M, but have a dead cap number of $7M, so it's only a $13M savings. Now, that gets them under the cap, but they need to replace him. Jaylon Moore - Entering a contract year with $14M in base pay. He's another guy that can be extended and create cap space. Kristian Fulton - They're probably cut him and create $5M of space. Like Taylor, they need to replace him. Drue Tranquill - Another guy they could cut to free up a few million, again, they'll need to replace him. Trent McDuffie - Will probably get a new deal because his pay is all base pay. They cut him, he's a $13M cap hit. The only way to make it work with him is to re-sign him turning his base pay into bonus money and freeing up space. It can be done, but what's going to happen is that they're kicking not just Mahomes' money down the road, they're adding crap to the road and making less there. I think they'll be ok this year, but I'm not so sure about 2027. Less sure about 2028. If I were a gambling man, I'd say their ceiling this year is the wild card. Probably the case for 2027 as well. Unless they strike gold somewhere, I think the dynasty is over. valid points. I'm not as knowledgeable as you are with respect to how the restructuring of a contract works. but if Mahomes is out a good portion of the year is it worth it to sign a guy like Kelce? you have to give up a player who could help this team in the future to keep a guy who gets to work with a backup QB. The value just isnt there. It may actually be wise to say 'hey bud, we'll give you a nice golden handshake but you are not gonna put up stats with a backup QB. Why dont you just retire?' its the truth. if mahomes has to sit half the year Kelce is not putting up numbers. Likely nobody is. its not like Kelce has enough tread on the tires to wait it out til Mahomes gets back. this is likely his very last year (if he plays) I honestly cant see him playing 2 more seasons at this point. He actually looked like he had checked out at some times this last year. This situation wont get better as he ages. I suppose its up to KC but I think If I'm KC I dont bring him back unless its on a team friendly deal. hes not gonna be worth 10+ million to them this year. I get that there are people they can cut. and if they expect they can get their replacement as a plug and play in the draft, maybe they take a chance. Personally I'd just not sign Kelce and save that 10M either way, I'm glad thats not my problem to solve. Quote
cmh6476 Posted February 25 Posted February 25 i think the chiefs know more about what they plan to do than speculative journalists or armchair GMs posting on a fantasy message board Quote The Kansas City Chiefs clearly made a mistake by letting go of offensive guard Joe Thuney in return for just a fourth-round pick from the Chicago Bears via a trade last offseason, and this time around the team faces equally perilous decisions along a shaky offensive line. Kansas City may have shored up the left side by drafting tackle Josh Simmons in the first round last April. However, injuries and off-field concerns sidelined him for nine games during his rookie season. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor is a prime cut candidate heading into the new league year, which begins on March 11. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have to shore up the offensive front before the return of quarterback Patrick Mahomes from the ACL/LCL injury he suffered in Week 15. Kansas City can save $20 million against the salary cap by releasing Taylor in the coming weeks, which reads like a foregone conclusion given his dip in play in 2025 when he ranked 80th of 89 qualifying offensive tackles, per Pro Football Focus. Jason La Canfora of SportsBoom on Monday, February 23 cited a current general manager who linked the Chiefs to left tackle Rasheed Walker, currently of the Green Bay Packers. Walker will hit free agency next month. "I think Big Red wants this fixed before the draft if he can,” La Canfora wrote, citing the unnamed GM. "Walker makes sense. He has the size (6-foot-6) they want on the edge. Then he can go skill guys on day one and day two (of the draft). They need more speed and twitch at receiver, tight end, running back." Quote
Ray_T Posted February 25 Posted February 25 7 hours ago, cmh6476 said: i think the chiefs know more about what they plan to do than speculative journalists or armchair GMs posting on a fantasy message board without a doubt. I mostly speculate because if you can figure out what a team is doing its easier to plan your fantasy year in advance. its also a little fun to speculate. at the end of the day the GM doesnt care what you and I or any speculative journalist thinks. hes gonna do what he thinks is right (unless the owner overrules him) either way, it will be interesting to see what kind of decisions the team makes in the coming months Quote
TBayXXXVII Posted February 27 Author Posted February 27 On 2/25/2026 at 11:09 AM, cmh6476 said: i think the chiefs know more about what they plan to do than speculative journalists or armchair GMs posting on a fantasy message board Usually... but not always. People in the FO's are usually more egotistical and less objective. Someone like me, has no skin in the game. I can look from the outside and make judgements without emotion. I didn't draft, trade for, sign, or release anyone they have, so I'm not tied to any decisions. So while the teams have more information and experience, fans and pundits are right from time to time, when the team is wrong. Proof? Outside of the Cleveland Browns, who thought trading for Watson was a good idea? Outside of the Cleveland Browns, who thought the contract they gave him was a good idea? It's not only the Browns. The Broncos gave a boat load of cash to Osweiler AND Wilson. Who thought those were good idea's? 1 Quote
Ray_T Posted February 28 Posted February 28 10 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said: Usually... but not always. People in the FO's are usually more egotistical and less objective. Someone like me, has no skin in the game. I can look from the outside and make judgements without emotion. I didn't draft, trade for, sign, or release anyone they have, so I'm not tied to any decisions. So while the teams have more information and experience, fans and pundits are right from time to time, when the team is wrong. Proof? Outside of the Cleveland Browns, who thought trading for Watson was a good idea? Outside of the Cleveland Browns, who thought the contract they gave him was a good idea? It's not only the Browns. The Broncos gave a boat load of cash to Osweiler AND Wilson. Who thought those were good idea's? true. though I do think mostly he was referring to an article that was speculating on some of these very things. Yes the team knows what they will do far more than we do. But Like TBay mentioned.... that doesnt mean they are right and we are wrong. Quote
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