Kansas City Chiefs... did they make a mistake by not trading Mahomes?

[Ray_T]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

How much more are they kicking down the road?  If I recall, they already made next years' cap hit, something like $85M?  What did they do now, make 2028 hit $100M?

That is almost a 10 year deal.

but if inflation picks up here, (and I think it might).... this contract may not age too badly if he can actually play to anywhere close to the age of 40.

[TBayXXXVII]

3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

That is almost a 10 year deal.

but if inflation picks up here, (and I think it might).... this contract may not age too badly if he can actually play to anywhere close to the age of 40.

Don't know what the structure is, but every one of these are 3 years shorter than the term, because the last 3 years are void years.  All 3 will hit their cap, as a whole, after the last year on the deal.

I'm trying to go off memory here.  If I recall, his restructured deal from earlier this year, was set to expire after the 2031 season.  They apparently extened it 2 years and added another $54M (I think, to the original contract, if I'm reading that right).  Next year was supposed to be an $85M (I think), cap hit.  The next two were around $55M.  My guess is that they already restructured 2027, and probably at least 2028, if not also, 2029.  When the details come out, we'll have a better idea.  But for now, I'm thinking that 2027 will now be a $40M cap hit as well as 2028 & 2029, meaning, that's $75M plus the $55M in new money, so $130M more that they're going spread out from 2030 to 2033, plus 2034-2037 in voidable years.  If I had to guess, I'm going to say that 2030 & 2031 have cap hits over $80M with 2032 and 2033 over $90M with about another $70 to $90M in dead money in the 3 voidable years.

A 2027 Chiefs prediction.  Chris Jones gets traded after the season.

[Ray_T]

wow, that is absolutely crazy money

Thats all I have to say about that.

[Gepetto]

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/21751/patrick-mahomes

 

[TBayXXXVII]

On 6/15/2026 at 3:35 AM, Gepetto said:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/21751/patrick-mahomes

 

They smartly absorded those voidable years into the new deal.  That's the right way to do it.  If they trade him after the 2028, there'll be very little impact.  I'm guessing he's traded after June 1st after next season or the following one.

[Showboat]

28 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

They smartly absorded those voidable years into the new deal.  That's the right way to do it.  If they trade him after the 2028, there'll be very little impact.  I'm guessing he's traded after June 1st after next season or the following one.

I don't see the Chiefs trading Mahomes - the only conditions under which it would ever be considered:

1) Mahomes starts playing the Favre "will I or won't I retire game" and the Chiefs have an A.Rodgers-type prospect waiting in the wings. 

2) Mahomes is washed up and can no longer play at a high level (due to either injury or diminishing skills) in which case his trade value won't be great, so he might just get cut at that point.

[TBayXXXVII]

1 hour ago, Showboat said:

I don't see the Chiefs trading Mahomes - the only conditions under which it would ever be considered:

1) Mahomes starts playing the Favre "will I or won't I retire game" and the Chiefs have an A.Rodgers-type prospect waiting in the wings. 

2) Mahomes is washed up and can no longer play at a high level (due to either injury or diminishing skills) in which case his trade value won't be great, so he might just get cut at that point.

Andy Reid will move on from him as soon as he finds someone who's worth playing.  About 12 months ago, Garrett Nussmeier was talked about as a potential 1st round draft pick.  If that version shows up in Kansas City, Reid will make a move.  He had McNabb in Philly and drafted Kolb in the 2nd round in 2007.  McNabb's last year in Philly was 2009.

[League Champion]

They would burn KC down if Reid ever traded or cut Mahomes. He's not going anywhere

[Showboat]

18 hours ago, League Champion said:

They would burn KC down if Reid ever traded or cut Mahomes. He's not going anywhere

Well, as I said, if the Chiefs make the determination that he is done I could see them suckering some team into trading for him (like the Seahawks did with Russ).  Other than that, Mahomes will be with the Chiefs at least until his late 30s early 40s.  At that point, I could see the Chiefs letting him go someplace else especially if they are embarking on a new re-building effort.

[Gepetto]

The Chiefs aren’t going to think he’s done. They just extended him. He’s the best player in the league.

[jrokh]

Mahomes was 6th in the league in QBR last year, ahead of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. He's only 30, the idea the Chiefs would move on from him is patently ridiculous...

[Ray_T]

On 6/21/2026 at 12:54 PM, jrokh said:

Mahomes was 6th in the league in QBR last year, ahead of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. He's only 30, the idea the Chiefs would move on from him is patently ridiculous...

agreed.   its not like hes a 35 year old washed up guy.   hes 30.

a lot of running QB hit the wall around this age due to the excessive # of hits they take.   but Mahomes isnt really a runner.  Not 100% anyway.    hes more like Rodgers.  a Hybrid type who are fully capable of running if need be, but thats not really their game.    They are closer to being drop back passers than they are Running QB.

And hes a good enough at actually throwing the ball, that if his ability to run goes, he still can make it as a full on drop back passer.

so No I dont think they move on from him.    only real reason to do it at this age is if he has an injury that makes him unable to play at a high level or an injury they deem to be 'degenerative' that may not affect him much today but will affect him in the near future.

That is likely the tipping point and I see nothing that makes me think we are there.