Kansas City Chiefs... is now the time to trade Mahomes?

[TBayXXXVII 2,720]

Here's how I'm looking at it. What was the problems the Chiefs had last year? It wasn't the defense. They ranked 6th in points against and the prior year they were 4th. That side of the ball isn't the problem. I'm not saying Pat Mahomes "IS" the problem either. What I'm saying, is that Pat Mahomes is the problem.  Not him the player/person, but him, the contract.  Here's the deal. Mahomes is a $78M cap hit this year and the Chiefs are $56M over the cap right now, so it makes sense on restructuring and kicking the can down the road. The thing is, because they've been doing this for 3 (4? 5?), years now to where his cap hit for 2027 is already at $74M, so they can't push much more to next year (if they do, that's going to be what, a $90M cap hit?), they'll have to add it to 2028 to 2031, which are all, currently over $40M (the least year being over $48M). On top of that, Kelce isn't what he once was and he's a free agent. He can leave this season (or retire). Side note, Mahomes has $120M in voidable years money in 2032 & 2033 ($60M each).

If the Chiefs trade Mahomes, he will be a net, $57M cap hit. So, why not trade him now? I know, the ACL, I get it. So what? Mahomes' base pay the next 2years is $45M, but the next 4 are $18M, $8M, $31M & $38M. With roster bonuses over the next 6 years, Mahomes will cost the team trading for him:
2026 $56
2027 $52
2028 $26
2029 $34
2030 $45
2031 $47

In today's NFL, that's not bad. Especially since a team trading for him, can release him after the 2029 season and not pay those last 2 seasons. Trade him now and take the $57M cap hit and not worry about it.

Teams that I think could be in the market would be teams that have young QB's with question marks, but a good supporting cast... like Minnesota, Carolina, and Atlanta.  Imagine pairing up Mahomes and Jefferson. That's not worth a trade venture? How about Carolina? They have a decision to make about Young, on whether to pick up his 5th year option. Well, you have a good OLine, a couple of young 1st WR's you just invested in over the last 2 seasons and 2 decent RB's.  Atlanta has Robinson and London.  McCarthy, Young, and Penix are all guys that could be included in a trade to give the Chiefs (and Reid), a new start... or at least a starting point.  Now, the cost would be more than just those young QB's because they are question marks, but it would reduce the draft pick compensation.

[Showboat 308]

About as crazy as BB not being a first-ballot hall-of-famer (so not saying it couldn't happen), but it would be a foolish move by the Chiefs.  It would be like the Patriots trading away Brady circa 2009/2010 after his injury when the Patriots had a bit of a lull.  When you have a franchise QB, you try to put the pieces around him and ride him until the wheels fall (maybe a move to be made when the QB is approaching 40, no way in his early 30s) 

[TBayXXXVII 2,720]

The injury is a coincindence and not pertinent.  Also, the situations aren't the same.  Brady was constantly signing 2, 3, and 4 year deals... Mahomes signed a 10 year extension and still has 6 left.  Brady was also signing deals that weren't going to hinder the Patriots movements.  As noted, Mahomes is a $78M cap hit, next year (right now), it's at $74M.  Now, Mahomes is trying to do the same with the Chiefs by constantly restructuring his deal, (which is fine), but at some point, they're going to have to pay the piper.  That's not what the Patriots/Brady had to do.

Mahomes' contract is in a state where every year, the cap hit is going to balloon.  Like I said, this coming season it's a $78M hit and next year, after a restructure could be as high as $85 to 90M.  It's also going to increase the hits on the following years.  Right now, the last 4 around between $42-$48M and they're only going to go up.  After restructuing this year and next, those last 4 are going to look closer to these next 2 and it's only going to get worse.

Normal practice is to take base pay and turn it into signing bonus money and spread it out over the remaining years.  Also, it can be added to basepay for upcoming seasons.  For example, when Mahomes originally signed his deal, his 2026 base pay was supposed to be $2.5M, right now it's $45M.  In 2027, it's also $45M when it was supposed to be $10M.  They've inflated these two years by a total of $78.65M.  Now, I can see the argument to hold out 2 more years and cut bait after the 2027 season and take a $25M cap hit.  The problem is, like I said, the Chiefs are alread over the cap by $56M with Mahomes being a $78M cap hit.  Something has to be done.  I don't think they're going to cut $70M off their payroll without touching Mahomes' contract.  Assuming a restructure is coming, the 2027 cap hit is likely to go up to $85M (or more), with 2028 going up to probably $60M or more, as well as smaller increases to the remaining 3.  That's going to equate to even more money after 2027 to be spread out over a shorter period of time and Mahomes will also be getting older and banged up more and the ROI will be dropping (if it isn't already).  Right now, they can trade him and take a $57M hit and get a legit return to address holes and build, without having to deal with a Saints-like duldrum, who kept kicking the Drew Brees can down the road.  The Saints still aren't that good, and they're going into this offeseason being over the cap by $40M.

Personally, I think the right move for NFL teams is to never pick up a 5th year option.  After Y3, give your QB a 5 year extension locking that guy in for a total of 9 years.  With 1 or 2 left, trade that QB and not pay him the ultra high rates that teams are paying for "meh", like Dallas paying Dak $60M a year for never winning anything.  If you don't give him the contract extension (because you don't think he's worth it), you have that draft and the following draft to replace him, then let him walk after Y4.  I mean, if you don't think he's worth extending, how much better is he than a guy you're going to draft?

[LaChup 309]

I would trade him for two first round picks in Dynasty. His last name don't reflect my scores the past few years. 

[weepaws 3,494]

BB isn’t a first rd HOF. 

I would trade him, better for the team 

[nobody 3,023]

You don't trade him.  Better play is to absorb as much of the cap hits you can this year and next even if it means bad years.  Then cap rises every year and you can actually put a team around him after you get over the hump.

 

What they'll probably do is restructure again and keep pushing the cap hit out, but this is the best time to just bottom out and eat as much cap hit as possible since he'll be recovering most of next year.

[weepaws 3,494]

Yea, you don’t trade him, how silly.  And BB should be a first rd HOF. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,720]

15 hours ago, nobody said:

You don't trade him.  Better play is to absorb as much of the cap hits you can this year and next even if it means bad years.  Then cap rises every year and you can actually put a team around him after you get over the hump.

 

What they'll probably do is restructure again and keep pushing the cap hit out, but this is the best time to just bottom out and eat as much cap hit as possible since he'll be recovering most of next year.

Well yeah, that's what they will do, I'm saying what they should do.  I believe the gap in play between Mahomes and his peers is closing while the gap in cost between Mahomes and his peers in widening.  After they restructure his deal, either next years cap hit increases by $10M (requiring a greater restructure next year), or more money will be added to subsequent years putting them in the $70M range.

Assuming Kelce wants to come back, they're going have to find money for him.  They're only going to be able to move about $40M from Mahomes' contract and they're $56M over the cap.  They have another $30 to $40M move to even look at free agents (and retaining Kelce).  On top of that, they'll need to re-sign Rice.  Now he won't impact this year, but he will next year, so the restructure of Mahomes' contract will have an impact on that as well.

Right now, I think is the highest Mahomes' trade value will be.  They can get a good return and it will only be at a cap cost of $57M.  The longer they kick the can down the road, the more the diminishing returns, the longer the financial impact.  The Saints are still in cap heII from Drew Brees.  They're going into Y6 of irrelevance.  Sean Payton knew that, it's why he left.

[jrokh 622]

If the Chiefs were foolish enough to trade Mahomes who would their QB be? Malik Willis? They would be better off tanking and try to go after Arch Manning, or whoever. Is that what you are suggesting? Besides if the cap is such an issue they could always do what Philly does and add a whole bunch of void years and push the money way into the future... I'll also add that according to Over the Cap Mahomes is only 15th of QB's in fully guarantees at 63 million +. His contract is much lower than a lot of other QB's...

[TBayXXXVII 2,720]

No, I'm suggesting that if there's a team in contention that has a young QB that they like, now would be a time to try and orchestrate a deal to include that QB.  IF the Chiefs feel that someone like McCarthy, Young, Penix, or even Stroud, is a pplayer they feel that they can build around, they can make a deal to include one of those guy in return.  Regardless, any team trading for Mahomes wouldn't need their QB so there's no reason not to make that guy a part of the deal.  So, there's no reason to "tank"  because they'd only make the deal if they believe in one of those young (cheap), QB's.  If not, that's fine, they can proceed as they are.  I'm merely suggesting that this would be the best time to go through this process.  That said, the reason they target a team with a QB on their rookie deal, is so that they can handle the impact of the cap hit they're going to take from trading Mahomes and still make a deal to sign said QB to an extension that doesn't have the $70M to $100M future yearly cap hits.

Kelce is either going to need a new deal or be replaced by the Chiefs.  They're $56M over the cap.  They can only move $40M by restructuring Mahomes.  Meaning, if they want to re-sign Kelce, have operating costs for the 2026 season, have money for free agents, and have money for draft picks, they're going to still need to free up another $40M (give or take).  This is possibly something they can address in a trade.  For example, maybe Kelce leaves (via retirement or as a free agent), a deal with the Vikings could include McCarthy (giving them a replacement QB), Jordan Addison (giving them a #2 WR to pair with Rice as a second passing option, replacing Kelce), Van Ginkel (since he has 1 year left on his deal), and pick #18.

Mahomes' base pay is 4th and his cap hit of $78M is 2nd in the league.  Not sure what Over the Cap is talking about in guarantees, maybe just the roster bonus this year and next?  But Spotrac does say his total guarantees are 14th at $141M.  That'll change after the restructure.

[weepaws 3,494]

Yeah, that’s the move, trade him for a younger, cheaper less talented Qb, it’s a good move, it saves lives.  

[Showboat 308]

Maybe the Chiefs can replace Mahomes with a pro-bowler like Shedeur Sanders or Joe Flacco. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,720]

Flacco has won a Super Bowl.

[kutulu 1,732]

Dead weight. Cut him before it's too late.

[weepaws 3,494]

Yeah, it’s time, let him go. 

[Gepetto 1,535]

They're not winning without him so they should keep him. Also, see Dallas Mavericks fans, and the Luka Doncic trade. You don't trade the best player in the league away. You find a way. Even if they never win another Super Bowl they should keep Mahomes until he's old. There are 32 teams, and they have a window with him. If Plan B is trading Mahomes away, then Plan B is NOT winning a Super Bowl for the next 8 years plus.

[weepaws 3,494]

Yeah, not winning without him, wait, they didn’t win with him this past season, darn it. 

[Super Cubs 156]

For what it will take to keep him and looking at what Houston got for Watson. It's something to think about. 

[JagFan 199]

Trade him to Arizona for Kyler Murray and picks.  Murray fits Reid’s offense and could win games in that scheme.

[weepaws 3,494]

Yeah, that should do something foolish like trading for Murray.  Awesome 

[Gepetto 1,535]

7 hours ago, JagFan said:

Trade him to Arizona for Kyler Murray and picks.  Murray fits Reid’s offense and could win games in that scheme.

"You serious, Clark?"

Beside the obvious player differences, and extra draft picks,.. 

Kyler Murray is in the middle of a 5-year, $230.5 million extension signed in 2022 that runs through 2028

Patrick Mahomes is in the fifth year of a 10-year, $450 million extension (signed in 2020) with the Kansas City Chiefs that runs through 2031

I'm just saying Kyler Murray's salary and cap hit isn't helpful.

[JagFan 199]

11 hours ago, Gepetto said:

"You serious, Clark?"

Beside the obvious player differences, and extra draft picks,.. 

Kyler Murray is in the middle of a 5-year, $230.5 million extension signed in 2022 that runs through 2028

Patrick Mahomes is in the fifth year of a 10-year, $450 million extension (signed in 2020) with the Kansas City Chiefs that runs through 2031

I'm just saying Kyler Murray's salary and cap hit isn't helpful.

Yea, I gotta be honest with you…I don’t get that deep into it.  I’m just on here reading what people are thinking as entertainment, and to keep up on the latest fantasy news.  I just assumed Kyler would be waaaaay cheaper than Mahomes.  But now that I know what you just laid out it makes so much more sense why Arizona isn’t very good….they ain’t smart!

[League Champion 2,022]

KC is in cap hell and in big trouble