Is the United States headed for a black recession?

[posty]

https://wtop.com/business-finance/2026/02/are-we-headed-for-a-black-recession-report-details-warning-signs/

There are signs the U.S. could be headed for a black recession, according to the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies.

The nonprofit, which calls itself “America’s Black Think Tank,” released its “State of the Dream” report last month in honor of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.’s birthday.

It looks back on 2025, the first year of President Donald Trump’s second term.

Joint Center Chief of Staff Monica Mitchell said the report found black Americans are dealing with two things at once: regression and recession.

“Policy rollbacks that have removed protections and investments designed to support black communities … is the regression, combined with economic indicators, particularly unemployment, that would qualify as recessionary if they were applied to the national economy,” she said.

Black unemployment increased from 6.2% in January of last year to 7.5% in December, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Comparatively, in that final month of 2025, the unemployment rate for white people was 3.8%, for Asian Americans it was 3.6% and for Hispanics it was 4.9%.

The report also documented how volatile the unemployment rate was for young black workers last year.

“It really actually illustrates the extreme instability that makes it nearly impossible for young workers and their families to be able to plan,” Mitchell said.

“We haven’t seen this level of unemployment writ large on the economy until we look back to 2021 during the height of the pandemic,” said Joint Center Senior Fellow Eric Morrissette.

The report estimated the Trump administration’s cuts to the federal workforce likely hit black women particularly hard.

“The disproportionate job losses among black women are particularly devastating to families with children, since black women are often the primary or sole breadwinners in their households,” Mitchell said.

Also discussed in the report were low rates of homeownership among black Americans, changing federal policies related to housing and the broader effects of both.

According to the latest U.S. Census Bureau data, the rate of homeownership is about 45% for black Americans, compared to around 74% for white Americans.

“The things that we’re seeing in terms of administration policy set against housing is not just a matter of where people are laying their head; it’s also where they’re laying their hopes,” Morrissette said.

He said many homeowning entrepreneurs use their home equity to start a business, or if they use other capital to take that risk, they know they still have their home.

Morrissette said while changes made to the federal tax code will overwhelmingly benefit the wealthy, the introduction of Trump Accounts could be different.

“I do want people to avail themselves of whatever benefits that they can and not retreat from it just because it has the president’s name on it,” Morrissette said. “This is something that can help poor people who are born this year.”

The report also noted the Trump administration’s decision to end diversity, equity and inclusion and affirmative action requirements, as well as the removal of DEI-related federal data from websites.

“There needs to be an effort to resume collecting and publishing crucial data because without the data you can’t get the measurement, and without the measurement, you can’t prove where the need is,” Mitchell said.

The “State of the Dream” report, conducted in collaboration with several other groups, shows that work is underway, she said.

“Institutions in this moment are coming together to document what’s happening, and build the evidence base for change,” Mitchell said.

[Hardcore troubadour]

Lots of fatigue out there. 

[Maximum Overkill]

25 minutes ago, posty said:

The report also documented how volatile the unemployment rate was for young black workers last year.

It's better, blacks are now getting jobs that Illegals had for so long, especially in construction 

Look on almost any construction site 

[dogcows]

5 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

It's better, blacks are now getting jobs that Illegals had for so long, especially in construction 

Look on almost any construction site 

This is not borne out by the numbers. Unemployment is UP.

Do you live in a fact-free zone?

[seafoam1]

3 minutes ago, dogcows said:

This is not borne out by the numbers. Unemployment is UP.

Do you live in a fact-free zone?

What numbers? 

[Meglamaniac]

3 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

What numbers? 

Dogcows of course

[dogcows]

4 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

What numbers? 

Did you even read the OP? It’s right in there.

[seafoam1]

3 minutes ago, dogcows said:

Did you even read the OP? It’s right in there.

So you said overall American numbers are black numbers.

And what about state numbers. You all keep saying Americans are unwilling to do jobs that only illegals will do.

This all makes no sense for American people who will work. 

I don't get it when you all say that black Americans refuse work because it's "below" them. 

[TimHauck]

9 minutes ago, Meglamaniac said:

Dogcows of course

If you’re talking about “black unemployment,” the OP cites the BLS as the source.  If you’re talking about total unemployment, here ya go:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE/#
 

Since Trump took office, every month except June (flat) has been higher than last year.

HTH.  It had started going up around 2023, but it still is.

[dogcows]

2 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

So you said overall American numbers are black numbers.

And what about state numbers. You all keep saying Americans are unwilling to do jobs that only illegals will do.

This all makes no sense for American people who will work. 

I don't get it when you all say that black Americans refuse work because it's "below" them. 

I didn’t say any of this.

[dogcows]

Just now, TimHauck said:

If you’re talking about “black unemployment,” the OP cites the BLS as the source.  If you’re talking about total unemployment, here ya go:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE/#
 

Since Trump took office, every month except June (flat) has been higher than last year.

HTH.  It had started going up around 2023, but it still is.

This thread is about black unemployment. Why some geeks decided to pretend I was talking about overall unemployment instead is beyond me.

[Hardcore troubadour]

I never have a problem getting a job. And indeed sends me an e-mail every day with job openings. So Fock anyone that’s not working. 

[TimHauck]

Just now, dogcows said:

This thread is about black unemployment. Why some geeks decided to pretend I was talking about overall unemployment instead is beyond me.

If there’s a higher increase in black unemployment than white it’s probably driven by the cutting of jobs like chief diversity officer.  (Don’t get me wrong, I think DEI can be good, but it doesn’t need its own department).

[dogcows]

Just now, TimHauck said:

If there’s a higher increase in black unemployment than white it’s probably driven by the cutting of jobs like chief diversity officer.  (Don’t get me wrong, I think DEI can be good, but it doesn’t need its own department).

The “moderate” guy is moderately racist.

[Hardcore troubadour]

1 minute ago, TimHauck said:

If there’s a higher increase in black unemployment than white it’s probably driven by the cutting of jobs like chief diversity officer.  (Don’t get me wrong, I think DEI can be good, but it doesn’t need its own department).

Great post! 

[seafoam1]

7 minutes ago, dogcows said:

This thread is about black unemployment. Why some geeks decided to pretend I was talking about overall unemployment instead is beyond me.

Liberals keep saying only illegals will work jobs that Americans refuse to work.

Are black people here Americans? 

[TimHauck]

9 minutes ago, dogcows said:

The “moderate” guy is moderately racist.

I don’t think there’s going to be a “black recession” without there also being an overall recession.  I suppose another explanation could be that blacks are over-represented in things like retail jobs, so an increase in their unemployment could be more driven by lower product demand, which would not be good for the overall economy.

[Meglamaniac]

25 minutes ago, dogcows said:

I didn’t say any of this.

Did you change your mind about the racist NYC Magas

[seafoam1]

Why is race important about a country being in or not being in a recession? 

 

[dogcows]

11 minutes ago, Meglamaniac said:

Did you change your mind about the racist NYC Magas

Weird, nope I guess somebody took it down. Dunno why; it’s a legit news story.

[seafoam1]

3 minutes ago, dogcows said:

Weird, nope I guess somebody took it down. Dunno why; it’s a legit news story.

Black people have equal rights. Actually they have more than equal rights..

[TimHauck]

5 minutes ago, dogcows said:

Weird, nope I guess somebody took it down. Dunno why; it’s a legit news story.

Maybe @WhiteWonder

[edjr]

GDC

[seafoam1]

1 hour ago, dogcows said:

I didn’t say any of this.

You did.

[seafoam1]

1 hour ago, dogcows said:

Did you even read the OP? It’s right in there.

Must be rough losing so much. 

[WhiteWonder]

With DEI going away, not surprising that black unemployment is up 

 
 

if a lot of DEI hires who were under qualified or not qualified at all have lost those jobs, then the number going up is a good thing. 

of course, black unemployment in general is not a good thing. 

[dogcows]

1 hour ago, WhiteWonder said:

With DEI going away, not surprising that black unemployment is up 

 
 

if a lot of DEI hires who were under qualified or not qualified at all have lost those jobs, then the number going up is a good thing. 

of course, black unemployment in general is not a good thing. 

This point of view is not at all supported by any evidence.

Pretty telling that we have multiple people here assuming black people only had/have jobs because of DEI.

[WhiteWonder]

4 minutes ago, dogcows said:

This point of view is not at all supported by any evidence.

Pretty telling that we have multiple people here assuming black people only had/have jobs because of DEI.

First of all, I used the word IF

Also, are you saying there is no evidence supporting businesses going away from previous DEI practices? 

[Voltaire]

6 minutes ago, dogcows said:

This point of view is not at all supported by any evidence.

Pretty telling that we have multiple people here assuming black people only had/have jobs because of DEI.

You forgot the word "some" in there.

[Red White and Blue]

Impossible. Trump has done more for the Blacks than any other POTUS, including Lincoln. 

Ask him.  

[dogcows]

9 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

First of all, I used the word IF

Also, are you saying there is no evidence supporting businesses going away from previous DEI practices? 

One of the biggest factors was the DOGE cuts which targeted agencies with many black workers. 335K jobs were eliminated from the federal government. And black women made up about 12% of that workforce, compared to 6% in the nation’s population overall.

There may have been some businesses that fired black people because of “DEI” - but I don’t know where one could get data on that. Also, firing a black person for “DEI” would be pretty blatant discrimination. Not sure they’d get away with that, so if it did happen, might have been on the down low?

[Voltaire]

1 minute ago, Red White and Blue said:

Impossible. Trump has done more for the Blacks than any other POTUS, including Lincoln. 

Ask him.  

Well... private sector he should be up there. If you want to add in all the public sector jobs getting axed, which is the theme of this thread... well whatever.

I doubt he'd agree with you regarding Lincoln; a president ever surpassing what Lincoln did for blacks is impossible. Right there with Cy Young's 7356 innings pitched ever being beaten (Justin Verlander has been in the league forever and is not even halfway there at 3567)

[Red White and Blue]

5 minutes ago, Voltaire said:

Well... private sector he should be up there. If you want to add in all the public sector jobs getting axed, which is the theme of this thread... well whatever.

I doubt he'd agree with you regarding Lincoln; a president ever surpassing what Lincoln did for blacks is impossible. Right there with Cy Young's 7356 innings pitched ever being beaten (Justin Verlander has been in the league forever and is not even halfway there at 3567)

Fair, Trump has said he’s done more for the Blacks than any other POTUS with the “possible exception” of Lincoln. That’s awful magnanimous of him to share the limelight. 

[WhiteWonder]

1 hour ago, dogcows said:

One of the biggest factors was the DOGE cuts which targeted agencies with many black workers. 335K jobs were eliminated from the federal government. And black women made up about 12% of that workforce, compared to 6% in the nation’s population overall.

There may have been some businesses that fired black people because of “DEI” - but I don’t know where one could get data on that. Also, firing a black person for “DEI” would be pretty blatant discrimination. Not sure they’d get away with that, so if it did happen, might have been on the down low?

Technically it would be firing someone for being under or unqualified for their job, not because they are black or because of DEI. It just so happens they were wrongfully hired because of DEI to fill a quota to start with. 
hard to cry discrimination if they are let go for underperformance. 

[Mookz]

Rims futures are down.  

[5-Points]

1 hour ago, Red White and Blue said:

Fair, Trump has said he’s done more for the Blacks than any other POTUS with the “possible exception” of Lincoln. That’s awful magnanimous of him to share the limelight. 

To be fair, during Trump's first term, black employment was the highest its been since 1865. So he might have a point. 

[Hardcore troubadour]

Jesse Lee Peterson said something about training? 

[Red White and Blue]

18 minutes ago, 5-Points said:

To be fair, during Trump's first term, black employment was the highest its been since 1865. So he might have a point. 

I’m not sure what the trends were in black employment prior to Trump taking office his first term, and I’m guessing you don’t either. But if we did, you probably wouldn’t put that accomplishment on par with signing the Emancipation Proclamation.  

[dogcows]

1 hour ago, WhiteWonder said:

Technically it would be firing someone for being under or unqualified for their job, not because they are black or because of DEI. It just so happens they were wrongfully hired because of DEI to fill a quota to start with. 
hard to cry discrimination if they are let go for underperformance. 

So did this happen? Or is it just a guess that you think it might have happened?

Ive seen nothing to indicate that black people underperformed or that increased unemployment was linked to job performance.

[seafoam1]

3 hours ago, Red White and Blue said:

I’m not sure what the trends were in black employment prior to Trump taking office his first term, and I’m guessing you don’t either. But if we did, you probably wouldn’t put that accomplishment on par with signing the Emancipation Proclamation.  

Even the mods don't want you here.