Thoughts on Alec Pierce

[makindollaz]

With his contract, he’ll obviously be a focus of the offense.  Pittman is gone…Is he a true #1?  Big workload potential, but also feel like he could bust.

What’s realistic to expect in PPR?  15-25 range for WR’s?  Higher?  Lower?

[Maximum Overkill]

11 minutes ago, makindollaz said:

With his contract, he’ll obviously be a focus of the offense.  Pittman is gone…Is he a true #1?  Big workload potential, but also feel like he could bust.

What’s realistic to expect in PPR?  15-25 range for WR’s?  Higher?  Lower?

Full PPR I think you're right on. I was thinking 15-20 with top 10 upside. He definitely got a WR1 contract, so they definitely have big plans for him. He should be at least a WR2 in all formats. 

[Showboat]

 I don't know that his contract means he'll be the focus - on an annual basis he's behind many guys who signed a year or two earlier (Lamb, McLaurin, Wilson, AJ Brown and even Tee Higgins).  I expect the Colts to lean heavily on J.Taylor until the wheels fall off and Tyler Warren to emerge as the de-facto #1 receiver (similar to what Kelce has been in KC).  Pierce will probably have some spike weeks, but I expect inconsistency.

[jrokh]

low end wr2...

[Maximum Overkill]

2 hours ago, Showboat said:

 I don't know that his contract means he'll be the focus - on an annual basis he's behind many guys who signed a year or two earlier (Lamb, McLaurin, Wilson, AJ Brown and even Tee Higgins).  I expect the Colts to lean heavily on J.Taylor until the wheels fall off and Tyler Warren to emerge as the de-facto #1 receiver (similar to what Kelce has been in KC).  Pierce will probably have some spike weeks, but I expect inconsistency.

Look at that depth chart and tell me where all those targets are going? There's a huge void from Pittman leaving. I think he'll see 130+ targets by default. 

I'm not sold on the talent, but the targets are there and it's full PPR

[weepaws]

No way does the situation nor the player have top ten potential,  he's a low wr2, with mid wr2 potential.  if anything he could be a high wr3.

 

[Maximum Overkill]

20 minutes ago, weepaws said:

he's a low wr2

So you have him roughly in the same range as we do. WR 15-25 depending on league size. 

[Gepetto]

He led the league the last two years and yards per catch and by a wide margin. Had him in my team last year. Won the . He’s really good at getting downfield, going up and getting the ball. Some of the comments in this thread are way off.

[Mike FF Today]

I haven't done rankings yet, by my first pass at the projections have him at 72-1077-6. The tricky part is figuring out his exact role. He's had an insane YPC over his career (14.5, 16.1, 22.3, 21.3). With Pittman gone, how much is his deep threat role going to change? They do have Josh Downs and TE Tyler Warren available to handle short and mid-range routes, so I've got him at a 15 ypc at the moment... which is still a healthy number. 

[weepaws]

I don't see any reason to get excited about his ypc in fantasy football unless the player has a lot of rec it's an over rated stat, and he doesn't have a lot of rec or targets.

He had three games last season when he only had 1 rec in the entire game,  one of those games  his ypc was 36 because he has one rec, but produce 4 ppr points, and in another he had 1 rec for 26 and produced 3 ppr ff points.  I see him in the 20-24 area, no top ten upside, 20-24  is his upside. Thanks

 

[makindollaz]

15 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

So you have him roughly in the same range as we do. WR 15-25 depending on league size. 

I’m thinking about keeping him in a 16 team league, so slowly talking myself into him being ok as a WR2.

[Maximum Overkill]

Just now, makindollaz said:

I’m thinking about keeping him in a 16 team league, so slowly talking myself into him being ok as a WR2.

Certainly, especially in a 16 team league. His role changes now that Pittman is gone. Expect a big uptick in targets. 

[RareN64Dream]

If you pick Jonathan Taylor, make sure you get some RBs that can stay healthy for later in the season. Josh Jacobs was frustrating a bit to have as a RB #2 in one of my money leagues with Taylor. I was undefeated for like 8 weeks and then lost like 3 straight. Just saying. My other 3 best RB I think were Javonte Williams, Omarion Hampton and Bucky Irving. All 3 of them got injured somewhat during the season too, like Jacobs. Didn't help that Justin Jefferson had a couple awful games stats wise and Patrick Mahomes, Davante Adams got injured too. Adams, not as bad as Mahomes. That is a 8 team money league.

[jrokh]

11 hours ago, Gepetto said:

He led the league the last two years and yards per catch and by a wide margin. Had him n my team lat year. Won the . He’s really good at getting downfield, going up and getting the ball. Some of the comments in this thread are way off.

He also finished 23rd in avg fppg in half ppr last year. That is a low end wr2. What comments are way off?

[gridiron whirlwinds]

He is a guy I am pretty high on, along with Luther Burden who is a beast with the ball in his hands.

[Maximum Overkill]

25 minutes ago, jrokh said:

last year

With Pittman on the roster

[weepaws]

7 hours ago, makindollaz said:

I’m thinking about keeping him in a 16 team league, so slowly talking myself into him being ok as a WR2.

In a 16 teams league, no question do you keep him.

[weepaws]

6 hours ago, RareN64Dream said:

If you pick Jonathan Taylor, make sure you get some RBs that can stay healthy for later in the season. Josh Jacobs was frustrating a bit to have as a RB #2 in one of my money leagues with Taylor. I was undefeated for like 8 weeks and then lost like 3 straight. Just saying. My other 3 best RB I think were Javonte Williams, Omarion Hampton and Bucky Irving. All 3 of them got injured somewhat during the season too, like Jacobs. Didn't help that Justin Jefferson had a couple awful games stats wise and Patrick Mahomes, Davante Adams got injured too. Adams, not as bad as Mahomes. That is a 8 team money league.

Always drafting players that stay healthy is always the goal, at any position 

[weepaws]

4 hours ago, gridiron whirlwinds said:

He is a guy I am pretty high on, along with Luther Burden who is a beast with the ball in his hands.

I like Burden.

[weepaws]

3 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

With Pittman on the roster

Which might make is job more difficult, his ff points should rise, but i don't see top ten potential 

[Gepetto]

4 hours ago, jrokh said:

He also finished 23rd in avg fppg in half ppr last year. That is a low end wr2. What comments are way off?

Pittman was WR1 for targets. Alec Pierce will get more targets in 2026.

[Maximum Overkill]

31 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Which might make is job more difficult, his ff points should rise, but i don't see top ten potential 

He's not being drafted as a top 10, Fantasy is all about upside, you know that. 

[weepaws]

The best wr the Colts had, is now on the Steelers, and even Pittmans best seasons, he wasn't a top ten wr. 

[weepaws]

I would draft him has a low wr 2, op keep him,  with mid wr 2 potential.   

[makindollaz]

3 hours ago, weepaws said:

In a 16 teams league, no question do you keep him.

Leaning towards it.  We keep 4 and I’ll keep Gibbs…Jameson Williams as my other WR.  Loved what Kraft did last year before the injury, so will probably keep him with TE being relatively thin…especially in a 16 team league.

[Maximum Overkill]

1 hour ago, makindollaz said:

Leaning towards it.  We keep 4 and I’ll keep Gibbs…Jameson Williams as my other WR.  Loved what Kraft did last year before the injury, so will probably keep him with TE being relatively thin…especially in a 16 team league.

Yup, you have to keep Kraft in all formats 

[jrokh]

4 hours ago, Gepetto said:

Pittman was WR1 for targets. Alec Pierce will get more targets in 2026.

Sure his targets will go up. But so will Josh Downs, Tyler Warren, and Deion Burks will get a lot of those Pittman targets, I like Pierce, I had him on one of my teams last year. He was very useful, but that was when he was basically free. I'd be careful overpaying for a big play receiver in a run first offense...

[makindollaz]

1 hour ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Yup, you have to keep Kraft in all formats 

My next best option is probably Mahomes but feel like I can get an equal or better QB in the draft.

[Gepetto]

2 hours ago, jrokh said:

Sure his targets will go up. But so will Josh Downs, Tyler Warren, and Deion Burks will get a lot of those Pittman targets, I like Pierce, I had him on one of my teams last year. He was very useful, but that was when he was basically free. I'd be careful overpaying for a big play receiver in a run first offense...

Good point. I won’t overpay. I can actually keep him for basically free in an auction league. I’ll probably keep Rashee Rice who I got at a good price. I don’t think oeople in my league will bid much for Pierce. Have to wait and see. Draft isn’t until labor day.

[weepaws]

5 hours ago, makindollaz said:

My next best option is probably Mahomes but feel like I can get an equal or better QB in the draft.

I would keep Kraft  

[Maximum Overkill]

9 hours ago, makindollaz said:

My next best option is probably Mahomes but feel like I can get an equal or better QB in the draft.

Is this a Dynasty League? Being a 16 team league, I'd imagine that QBs are hard to come by, especially top 16 QBs. 

Who are your other QBs? 

[makindollaz]

32 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Is this a Dynasty League? Being a 16 team league, I'd imagine that QBs are hard to come by, especially top 16 QBs. 

Who are your other QBs? 

We only keep 4 from the previous year.  Scanning other rosters, there’s a pretty good chance the only QB’s who will be kept are Allen, Lamar, Maye & Hurts.  Maybe Burrow.  The rest should be thrown into the draft pool.

[TBayXXXVII]

On 5/9/2026 at 10:52 AM, makindollaz said:

With his contract, he’ll obviously be a focus of the offense.  Pittman is gone…Is he a true #1?  Big workload potential, but also feel like he could bust.

What’s realistic to expect in PPR?  15-25 range for WR’s?  Higher?  Lower?

He's a boom or bust high risk/high reward guy in a not so good situation.  Daniel Jones is coming off of an Achilles injury which doesn't seem like a good thing for a QB.  Rodgers nor Cousins played particularly well the year following their Achilles injuries.  I mean, sure, you can say they're old, but is Daniel Jones even as good as "old" Kirk Cousins or "old" Aaron Rodgers?  Maaayyybeeeee?

On top of that, if I have a #2 WR, I'm hoping for about 13 fpw.  Last year, his best year, Pierce had 6 games in the single digits and 2 other games below 11 points.  In 8 of his 14 games played, he was not a starter.  Sure, he had a big 20+ point game and a couple other 17+ games.  Threw in a couple more WR2 production games.  Which is why I say he's a boom/bust high risk/high reward guy.  You may get lucky, you make get bunk.  

I don't think Pierce is all that good at chatching the ball.  I think he's "ok", but that's about it.  Could volume help?  I guess.  But I'm not really sure how much more volume he'd get.  They say "Hike", and he runs straight and fast.  That's it.  How many more times is he going to do that?  How's going to throw the ball?  How good are they going to throw it?

I'd take him as my WR5 and use him as a bye week shot in the dark flex guy.  I'll see what happens throughout traning camp and exhitibition games and see if there's anything noticeable that's an improvement and go from there.

[weepaws]

Diffently worth a wr5

[Maximum Overkill]

2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I'd take him as my WR5 and use him as a bye week shot in the dark flex guy

Jeez, I need to play in your league. I'm guessing that's a 10 team league? Because he's going for an early second in Dynasty leagues. WR3 (Flex or Superflex) at the very worst

[makindollaz]

5 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Jeez, I need to play in your league. I'm guessing that's a 10 team league? Because he's going for an early second in Dynasty leagues. WR3 (Flex or Superflex) at the very worst

Yeah, WR5 would put him in the 50-60 range for WR’s.  There are real life WR3’s that will go that high, and Pierce is the 1 in a not-terrible offense.

[Maximum Overkill]

Just now, makindollaz said:

Yeah, WR5 would put him in the 50-60 range for WR’s.  There are real life WR3’s that will go that high, and Pierce is the 1 in a not-terrible offense.

That's ridiculous for someone who's WR1 on his own team. He must be playing in a 10 team league because I want all the Pierce shares I can get and that's in 12 Teams Dynasty Leagues. 

I'll take his upside over any RB3 

[TBayXXXVII]

13 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Jeez, I need to play in your league. I'm guessing that's a 10 team league? Because he's going for an early second in Dynasty leagues. WR3 (Flex or Superflex) at the very worst

Come on in.  I love it when people overpay for JAG's.  One more good player on the board and one less person I have to worry about beating.

[Maximum Overkill]

17 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Come on in.  I love it when people overpay for JAG's.  One more good player on the board and one less person I have to worry about beating.

You're going by last year, that's not how it works. He had 84 targets WITH Michael Pittman on the team. There's 110 new targets up for grabs. Where do you think they're going? 

You know as well as I do, path to targets is everything 

[TBayXXXVII]

Just now, Maximum Overkill said:

You're going by last year, that's not how it works. He had 84 targets WITH Michael Pittman on the team. There's 110 new targets up for grabs. Where do you think they're going? 

You know as well as I do, path to targets is everything 

A couple of things...

1)  The Colts also signed Nick Westbrook-Ikhine in the off-season.  He was averaging about 50 targets a game in Tennessee, I think that's a reasonable number to expect in Indy.

2) I think Warren is going to get a lot more targets, he will likely be the #1 option on team and go-to guy.  He could end up with 160 targets.

3) Jones is coming back from an Achillies injury.  One that does not bode well for a person who's job is to drop back, plant, and chuck the ball.  I think he'll be doing a lot of dump offs and that's not the route Pierce specializes in.

4) With Westbrook-Ikhine and Warren, I'm expecting 100 targets going their way, which leaves 11 for Pierce (assuming similar pass attempts).  This is also assuming that Downs gets no extra targets... because I'm being kind.  So, I don't see 11 extra targets as being something that would change anything.

5) By seasons end, yes, Pierce could put up decent WR2 numbers.  But, he's going to have a lot of weeks where he gets you single digit points (happened almost half the time last year), I'm certainly not going to pay a WR2 price for him.  I wouldn't even draft him to be a starter.  At best a 4, I'd be ok with a 5 as a bye week flex guy.
 

He's hit or miss, generally to extremes.  He's not going to be a 6 for 70 guy.  He's not going to be an 5 for 80 guy.  He's going to be a 2 for 40 or 5 for 150 guy.  Like I said, I might change my mind after training camp and exhibition games, but as of right now, I'd be ok with missing out on him if people are taking him before rounds 9 or 10.