Thoughts on Alec Pierce

[Maximum Overkill]

4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I'd take him as my WR5

My friend, if he's going as WR50-60 in any of your leagues, then I want in. 

Saying he's a WR5 is criminally undervaluing him as a Fantasy asset, even in 10 team redraft leagues. That's my point here.

[makindollaz]

3 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

My friend, if he's going as WR50-60 in any of your leagues, then I want in. 

Saying he's a WR5 is criminally undervaluing him as a Fantasy asset, even in 10 team redraft leagues. That's my point here.

Agree.  Going back to my original projection, I’ve got him in the 15-25 (realistically, 20-25) range but I think his floor is 35, being at the top of the depth chart and being paid as a clear WR1.

That’s WR3/Flex range in a 12 team league…the floor.  I don’t disagree he’s got some weekly boom/bust potential but I like the upside enough.  Especially in a 16 team format.

[weepaws]

27 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

My friend, if he's going as WR50-60 in any of your leagues, then I want in. 

Saying he's a WR5 is criminally undervaluing him as a Fantasy asset, even in 10 team redraft leagues. That's my point here.

He didn't say he was going to go that low in his leagues, he said, that where he would take him, he's obviously saying, he's going to pass on him. 

Just let it go man, just let it go.

[Super Cubs]

He's not someone I would go out of my way to have on my team.  If he falls to a spot I feel comfortable taking a gamble, I'll pull the trigger.  If I pass on him and he puts up top 10 numbers so be it. 

[weepaws]

He's not going to post to ten numbers, best would be mid wr 2 imo

[Maximum Overkill]

8 hours ago, weepaws said:

He's not going to post to ten numbers, best would be mid wr 2 imo

Ok, at least we pulled the nose up a little. 

And WR2 numbers would be excellent in a 10 team league and even better in 12 team leagues which I'll only play in. To say he's a WR5 in any format is a joke to me. Again, I'm not saying he's Jamaar Chase but he deserves more respect than WR5. 

The volume is definitely going to pick up and I don't see The Colts being very good. He had over 1,000 yards last year on minimal targets, 1,300 - 1,500 yards and 10+ TDs this season is not unrealistic 

That's just my take, draft the upside 

[TBayXXXVII]

16 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

My friend, if he's going as WR50-60 in any of your leagues, then I want in. 

Saying he's a WR5 is criminally undervaluing him as a Fantasy asset, even in 10 team redraft leagues. That's my point here.

I don't know or care what round he's going nor what WR number he's going as.  He wouldn't be one of the first 4 WR's I'd take.  If someone wants to make that mistake... gamble, have at it.  I gave my reasons why.  That's my point here.

[weepaws]

I looked at wrs last night, right now I have him has a very low wr2, high wr3  

[Maximum Overkill]

14 hours ago, weepaws said:

I looked at wrs last night, right now I have him has a very low wr2, high wr3  

I see no way possible that he falls into that WR36 range, baring injury. 

Are your leagues 10 or 12 teams? 

[weepaws]

Both of my leagues are 14, but when I discuss on this board I think on the way of a 12 team league, to dummy it down for most. 

I don't see anyway he's going to around that late either, so I'll be happy with my better choices. 

[weepaws]

6 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I see no way possible that he falls into that WR36 range, baring injury. 

Are your leagues 10 or 12 teams? 

12 team league, wr3 isn't wr36, that would be wr 25, I like 24 other wrs over him, that's all that means, don't try so hard and you'll catch up  

[Ray_T]

On 5/12/2026 at 1:43 PM, TBayXXXVII said:

A couple of things...

1)  The Colts also signed Nick Westbrook-Ikhine in the off-season.  He was averaging about 50 targets a game in Tennessee, I think that's a reasonable number to expect in Indy.

2) I think Warren is going to get a lot more targets, he will likely be the #1 option on team and go-to guy.  He could end up with 160 targets.

3) Jones is coming back from an Achillies injury.  One that does not bode well for a person who's job is to drop back, plant, and chuck the ball.  I think he'll be doing a lot of dump offs and that's not the route Pierce specializes in.

4) With Westbrook-Ikhine and Warren, I'm expecting 100 targets going their way, which leaves 11 for Pierce (assuming similar pass attempts).  This is also assuming that Downs gets no extra targets... because I'm being kind.  So, I don't see 11 extra targets as being something that would change anything.

5) By seasons end, yes, Pierce could put up decent WR2 numbers.  But, he's going to have a lot of weeks where he gets you single digit points (happened almost half the time last year), I'm certainly not going to pay a WR2 price for him.  I wouldn't even draft him to be a starter.  At best a 4, I'd be ok with a 5 as a bye week flex guy.
 

He's hit or miss, generally to extremes.  He's not going to be a 6 for 70 guy.  He's not going to be an 5 for 80 guy.  He's going to be a 2 for 40 or 5 for 150 guy.  Like I said, I might change my mind after training camp and exhibition games, but as of right now, I'd be ok with missing out on him if people are taking him before rounds 9 or 10.

I like him, but he had a procedure done on his ankle in the offseason.  not sure what the recovery time on that is, but its something to look into before drafting him to make sure hes not gonna miss time early in the season.

its good for him that Pittman has left.    I think it will be him and Josh Downs.

I'm a fan of Downs.   hes a guy that delivers more value than what hes drafted for and probably will again.

what I dont know is if hes gonna be the clear cut #1 or if its a 1 and 1A situation.    I dont see him putting up dominating WR1 numbers so I can see the team spreading the ball around a bit.     Hes truly a #2 WR who is gonna be cast as a #1 for lack of a better WR on the team.

he is capable of surprising.   but the ankle thing worries me a bit.   at some point I'll research that but if someone on here has already done their homework on that injury I'd be interested in seeing what you find.

I'd guess he should be ok for week 1 but if he misses a good chunk of pre season he may have a slow start to the year.    Not something that would make me avoid him, but it would be enough that I'd wanna be sure I'm not overpaying for the guy.  especially if he misses time in the pre season.   thats usually the time you get your timing down with the starting QB and stuff.   if he misses that, it will set him back a bit.

[Maximum Overkill]

I've been offered an interested trade in one of my Dynasty leagues.

Someone offered me Quentin Johnston and a 2027 3rd round rookie draft pick for Alex Pierce. I'm a Quentin Johnston truther and have been trying to snag him up everywhere. He was in the middle of a breakout before getting banged up last season. I definitely wouldn't do it straight up but I have the depth and would like another 2027 pick in what's going to be a great draft.

Should I take the offer??? It's really close IMO 

[makindollaz]

2 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I've been offered an interested trade in one of my Dynasty leagues.

Someone offered me Quentin Johnston and a 2027 3rd round rookie draft pick for Alex Pierce. I'm a Quentin Johnston truther and have been trying to snag him up everywhere. He was in the middle of a breakout before getting banged up last season. I definitely wouldn't do it straight up but I have the depth and would like another 2027 pick in what's going to be a great draft.

Should I take the offer??? It's really close IMO 

Who are your WR’s other than Pierce?  I probably would only do it if you’ve got 2-3 solid options other than Pierce.

[Maximum Overkill]

1 hour ago, makindollaz said:

Who are your WR’s other than Pierce?  I probably would only do it if you’ve got 2-3 solid options other than Pierce.

I'm sort of rebuilding. I have a young roster, on purpose. Keep in mind it's Dynasty.

My WRs in that league are Odunze, Garrett Wilson, Brian Thomas JR , Travis Hunter (yuk), Jameson Williams and Coker. Not great 

I have no 2027 picks in this league 

[makindollaz]

27 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I'm sort of rebuilding. I have a young roster, on purpose. Keep in mind it's Dynasty.

My WRs in that league are Odunze, Garrett Wilson, Brian Thomas JR , Travis Hunter (yuk), Jameson Williams and Coker. Not great 

I have no 2027 picks in this league 

Unless it’s a 10 team league, those aren’t bad options.  Moore is in Buffalo now so Odunze is the likely #1.  Wilson is the clear #1.  Chances are either Thomas or Hunter will be the lead guy in Jax.  Williams is a top 20 WR overall.

It’s worth the trade IMO.

[weepaws]

That's a very interesting trade offer, you need a 2027 draft pick, so that's a bonus, I have QJ listed just slightly higher,  but, I think i would take it, I see it pretty even, but the bonus is the draft pick. Hope it works out  

[weepaws]

1 hour ago, makindollaz said:

Unless it’s a 10 team league, those aren’t bad options.  Moore is in Buffalo now so Odunze is the likely #1.  Wilson is the clear #1.  Chances are either Thomas or Hunter will be the lead guy in Jax.  Williams is a top 20 WR overall.

It’s worth the trade IMO.

Don't forget the name J Meyers, underrated, he could be the guy, Hunter might be on the defensive side more often.

[makindollaz]

18 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Don't forget the name J Meyers, underrated, he could be the guy, Hunter might be on the defensive side more often.

Personally, I’ll probably avoid Jags WR’s in redraft.  Throw Washington into the mix as well and you’ve got 4 guys who could all have comparable numbers.

[Maximum Overkill]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Don't forget the name J Meyers, underrated, he could be the guy, Hunter might be on the defensive side more often.

I love Jakobi Meyers, he's one of the most reliable fantasy assets you can have. His floor is amazing, the ceiling isn't great but who cares if he's going in the WR3-4 range? 

Good call 

[weepaws]

3 hours ago, makindollaz said:

Personally, I’ll probably avoid Jags WR’s in redraft.  Throw Washington into the mix as well and you’ve got 4 guys who could all have comparable numbers.

Truth  

[Maximum Overkill]

3 hours ago, makindollaz said:

Personally, I’ll probably avoid Jags WR’s in redraft.  Throw Washington into the mix as well and you’ve got 4 guys who could all have comparable numbers.

Yeah, the only one I'm buying is BTJ. If anyone breaks out big it's going to be him. It's still chancy but I'm a buyer 

[makindollaz]

47 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Yeah, the only one I'm buying is BTJ. If anyone breaks out big it's going to be him. It's still chancy but I'm a buyer 

Agree.  Hunter isn’t on my DND list, but he’d have to drop pretty far for me to bite.  Washington & Meyers I’d roster as bye week flex fill ins, but BTJ is probably the only one with breakout potential IF he can return to 2024 form.

[Ray_T]

16 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I've been offered an interested trade in one of my Dynasty leagues.

Someone offered me Quentin Johnston and a 2027 3rd round rookie draft pick for Alex Pierce. I'm a Quentin Johnston truther and have been trying to snag him up everywhere. He was in the middle of a breakout before getting banged up last season. I definitely wouldn't do it straight up but I have the depth and would like another 2027 pick in what's going to be a great draft.

Should I take the offer??? It's really close IMO 

Id probably want more than the 3rd round of a rookie draft if considering that offer.    but thats just me.   From the sound of it,  I also dont love Quentin Johnston as much as you do.     but even if you do love the guy,  that doesnt mean you should overpay for him.     thats my 10 cents worth of advice on the matter. 

[Maximum Overkill]

4 hours ago, Ray_T said:

Id probably want more than the 3rd round of a rookie draft if considering that offer.    but thats just me.   From the sound of it,  I also dont love Quentin Johnston as much as you do.     but even if you do love the guy,  that doesnt mean you should overpay for him.     thats my 10 cents worth of advice on the matter. 

Most people in our league use the KTC Dynasty trade Calculator when sending or creating offers. It says that I'd win that trade by 600 points. Even so, I don't think I'm accepting it, I'm really eager to see what Pierce does as a WR1. He cost me absolutely zero so I have nothing to lose.

Now, if he offers QJ and a 2nd then I'm taking it all day. 

[TBayXXXVII]

22 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I've been offered an interested trade in one of my Dynasty leagues.

Someone offered me Quentin Johnston and a 2027 3rd round rookie draft pick for Alex Pierce. I'm a Quentin Johnston truther and have been trying to snag him up everywhere. He was in the middle of a breakout before getting banged up last season. I definitely wouldn't do it straight up but I have the depth and would like another 2027 pick in what's going to be a great draft.

Should I take the offer??? It's really close IMO 

I see both as the same guy... a WR4/5, with volitility.  I'd take the deal because you're getting a pick for him.  Though, I'd play up the situation in Indy and his 1k yards to try and get a 2nd.  If it doesn't work, I'd still take the deal.

[TBayXXXVII]

19 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I'm sort of rebuilding. I have a young roster, on purpose. Keep in mind it's Dynasty.

My WRs in that league are Odunze, Garrett Wilson, Brian Thomas JR , Travis Hunter (yuk), Jameson Williams and Coker. Not great 

I have no 2027 picks in this league 

If you don't have any 2027 picks, I'd try to trade Brian Thomas Jr.  Sell on his name.  To me, it's clear he doesn't click with Lawrence.  He was a WR4 last year (averaged less than 10fpg), and in 2024, he wasn't that good either.  It wasn't until Mac Jones was his QB where he started putting up WR1 numbers.  In the first 10 games with Lawrence, he averaged 12.8 fpg, which was good for WR27.  After that, he averaged 21.5 fpg, which was WR3 over that time.

In 24 games with Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas Jr is averaging 11.33 fpg.  The Jags traded for Jakobi Meyes, his first game was Week 9.  From Week 9 unil the end of the season, Parker Washington averaged 14.9 fpg, Meyers 11.4, and Thomas 8.8.

[TBayXXXVII]

18 hours ago, makindollaz said:

Unless it’s a 10 team league, those aren’t bad options.  Moore is in Buffalo now so Odunze is the likely #1.  Wilson is the clear #1.  Chances are either Thomas or Hunter will be the lead guy in Jax.  Williams is a top 20 WR overall.

It’s worth the trade IMO.

Last year, after Meyers got there, Thomas was the WR3 on the team.  Didn't the Jags say they were going to make Hunter a DB only?  To note, I don't think this is a Brian Thomas issue, I think it's a Trevor Lawrence issue.  They don't click.

[Maximum Overkill]

4 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Last year, after Meyers got there, Thomas was the WR3 on the team.  Didn't the Jags say they were going to make Hunter a DB only?  To note, I don't think this is a Brian Thomas issue, I think it's a Trevor Lawrence issue.  They don't click.

Yeah, there's a lot of mouths to feed, especially if Hunter is a 2 way player. I think and I'm hoping that the Jags ultimately trade BTJ. 

I agree that it's more of a Lawrence problem, BTJ's best work was in his rookie season with Mac Jones at QB. Even still, the talent is hard to pass on, especially in Dynasty leagues where guys like him are few and far between. 

[TBayXXXVII]

3 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Yeah, there's a lot of mouths to feed, especially if Hunter is a 2 way player. I think and I'm hoping that the Jags ultimately trade BTJ. 

I agree that it's more of a Lawrence problem, BTJ's best work was in his rookie season with Mac Jones at QB. Even still, the talent is hard to pass on, especially in Dynasty leagues where guys like him are few and far between. 

Travis Hunter is no longer an option, he's a full-time DB now.  Yeah, if you want Thomas to hit for you, you'll need him to be traded.  But, with him still having 3 years left of his rookie contract, I'm not seeing why the Jags would feel the need to trade him.  I'd think that the Jags are at least 2 years away from that.  Now, if you think you're still another year away from competing, then you can hang on to him as a bench player and hope he works out well if/when, you need to start him.

[Maximum Overkill]

4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Yeah, if you want Thomas to hit for you, you'll need him to be traded. 

Well that's a good thing that Hunter is a full time DB now. Someone has to emerge as the alpha. Washington and Meyers are very nice receivers, none of which are an X. 

I'll take my chances with BTJ. The upside is scary good, that rookie season wasn't a fluke but Lawrence needs to step up. 

Still hoping BTJ gets traded, hahaa. 

[makindollaz]

5 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Well that's a good thing that Hunter is a full time DB now. Someone has to emerge as the alpha. Washington and Meyers are very nice receivers, none of which are an X. 

I'll take my chances with BTJ. The upside is scary good, that rookie season wasn't a fluke but Lawrence needs to step up. 

Still hoping BTJ gets traded, hahaa. 

I wouldn’t want to give up a 1st but I wouldn’t hate Washington giving up a 2nd to reunite him with Jayden.

[Ray_T]

15 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Most people in our league use the KTC Dynasty trade Calculator when sending or creating offers. It says that I'd win that trade by 600 points. Even so, I don't think I'm accepting it, I'm really eager to see what Pierce does as a WR1. He cost me absolutely zero so I have nothing to lose.

Now, if he offers QJ and a 2nd then I'm taking it all day. 

those things are just basic guidelines and are often based on historical production.    while they are helpful, they are not always grounded in reality.   it is just one tool in the toolbox.

the bottom line for me is this:   Pierce is headed for what appears to be a larger role.   a WR1 role.

while I do think QJs arrow is pointing up, I dont think he will be the WR1 in San Diego this year.   and my thought is you shouldnt trade a WR1 for a WR2 unless getting something else in the deal that is significant enough to make up for that.

and a third round rookie pick isnt enough (in my opinion) to make up for that.   On the surface the deal looks ok but I wouldnt make it for the same reasons you're not making it.   and thats the speculation on what Pierce can do as a WR1.    I just dont think the throw in is enough to make up for that.

I'm not sure i'd do it for a 2nd round rookie pick either.

 

 

[Maximum Overkill]

11 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I'm not sure i'd do it for a 2nd round rookie pick either

I couldn't get a first for Pierce in a million years, I doubt the QJ owner would even give up a 2027 2nd considering how deep it is. 

If so, I'll take that in a second. I put him on the block over the weekend, so far some cheap low ball offers came in. Nothing worth mentioning 

[Ray_T]

14 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I couldn't get a first for Pierce in a million years, I doubt the QJ owner would even give up a 2027 2nd considering how deep it is. 

If so, I'll take that in a second. I put him on the block over the weekend, so far some cheap low ball offers came in. Nothing worth mentioning 

well, its also a know your league thing too.

and I dont know your league.    so on that front you have the edge on me there.

but I still consider Pierce to be more valuable than QJ.     and Pierce at the moment appears to be in the better situation.   so even if you consider their talent to be equal.  Pierce is the #1 (or 1A) option in his offense.  QJ is not.  hes further down the list and they just added another TE to the offense.   granted the OC is now better but at best this is a wash for QJ.

I have to think the arrow is pointing up for Pierce more than it is for QJ simply due to the opportunity.

either way, its not a terrible thing if you dont get what you are looking for on that.   and if he starts out the season with 1 or 2 strong games, you can likely sell for a lot higher than you can today.

 

[weepaws]

Why did Taylor and Warren leave the Colts, I don't think there is a lot more opportunities for Pierce, of he's going to be there wr1, OJ isn't the number 1, or maybe he is. I like the Chargers situation for a wr more.

[Gepetto]

17 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

 Didn't the Jags say they were going to make Hunter a DB only? 

No. They did not say that. In fact that is not the case at all. Misreporting by stupid reporters misinterpreting words. Jacksonville management clarified that after the report came out.

[weepaws]

I don't know why the Jags say that in May, that would give teams a chance to prepare, I think Hunter will be more of a db imo

[Maximum Overkill]

3 hours ago, weepaws said:

I think Hunter will be more of a db imo

Agree, and they really need help at DB, they have nothing. They'll be fine at WR. 

[TBayXXXVII]

12 hours ago, Gepetto said:

No. They did not say that. In fact that is not the case at all. Misreporting by stupid reporters misinterpreting words. Jacksonville management clarified that after the report came out.