GobbleDog Posted May 14 Posted May 14 1) Taj Mahal 5-1 8)) Bull By The Horns 16-1 2) Ocelli 9-1 9) Iron Honor 9-1 3) Crupper 24-1 10) Napoleon Solo 9-1 4) Robusta 26-1 11) Corona De Oro 17-1 5) Talkin 9-1 12) Incredibolt 5-1 6) Chip Honcho 11-1 13) Great White 7-1 7) The Hell We Did 8-1 14) Pretty Boy Miah 24-1 Odds updated 5 pm May 16. Post time: Sat May 16 6:60 et ......................................................................... No Triple-Crown winner again this year as the Kentucky Derby winner - Golden Tempo will skip the Preakness for the Belmont.... as did most Derby contenders. It's becoming a trend and the industry isn't happy about it. They're considering moving the Preakness back a few weeks to allow more lay-off time. The only horses from the Derby are Ocelli (3rd), Incredibolt (6th), and Robusta (14th). Great White entered the Derby field, but was scratched. Good luck gentlemen! Quote
GobbleDog Posted May 14 Author Posted May 14 Don't usually make a Preakness thread as I don't have a system. I just listen to experts and guess. Quick breakdown: 1) Taj Mahal - 3 races and 3 wins, all at Laurel Park (Preakness). Beat questionable fields without much pressure. 2) Ocelli - 7 starts and 0 wins. Faded to 3rd at Derby (was winning). Closer might do well in this speed race (like Derby). 3) Crupper - Faced mostly weak fields. Probably out-classed, despite this being a watered down Preakness. 4) Robusta - Raced in Santa Anita and Derby.... sucked in both. Hasn't shown much entire career. 5) Talkin - 3rd in Bluegrass. Up and down record, some blamed on bad positioning. New jockey might work wonders. 6) Chip Honcho - Big time jockey and trainer, but career has been fairly disappointing. 7) The Hell We Did - Beaten by somewhat weak competition. Unknown closing ability. 8)) Bull By The Horns - Big closer, but a bit outclassed here. Pace would need to collapse (which it might). 9) Iron Honor - Won maiden first try, then won gd 3. Then 7th at Wood after bumped. Odds seem too low given everything. 10) Napoleon Solo - Gate-to-wire horse. Might be fastest, but holding off field will be a big test. 11) Corono De Oro - Another speed horse. Probably leads, but unlikely to hold. Faded to third in last Gd 3 race. 12) Incredibolt - Late addition... trainer might like the weak field. Closed to 6th in Derby and could close again. 13) Great White - 5th in Bluegrass. Probably wants lead early, but seems outclassed here. 14) Pretty Boy Miah - Bad post, gonna fight superior horses for early lead, and unlikely to hold even if he gets it. ................................................................. This appears to set up as another Kentucky Derby type race, with big early speed, followed by a pace meltdown. Thus, any of them could pull off the upset (like Golden Tempo at 23-1 in the Derby). Though it's nice to have a closer in those longer speed races. Considering everything the 20-1 odds on Talkin look very enticing. Won maiden first try, then all graded races (Gd 1, 2 and 3) - good competition. Results ranged a lot, but he was closing in that Bluegrass 3rd place finish. And the jockey - Irad Ortiz... hands down the best in the biz. I'll also throw a little on Incredibolt at 5-1. Odds aren't great, but he's a closer and certainly among the most talented in this field. 1 Quote
GobbleDog Posted May 15 Author Posted May 15 The 2026 Preakness isn't being held at the traditional Pimlico Race Course because it's been torn down for a more modern racing facility. Instead the race is being held at Laurel Park (still Maryland). However, Laurel Park has ongoing renovations... so attendance for the Preakness will be capped at 4,800 tickets. Quote
Mike Honcho Posted May 15 Posted May 15 22 hours ago, GobbleDog said: 1) Taj Mahal 5-1 8)) Bull By The Horns 30-1 2) Ocelli 6-1 9) Iron Honor 4-1 3) Crupper 30-1 10) Napoleon Solo 8-1 4) Robusta 30-1 11) Corona De Oro 30-1 5) Talkin 20-1 12) Incredibolt 5-1 6) Chip Honcho 5-1 13) Great White 15-1 7) The Hell We Did 15-1 14) Pretty Boy Miah 15-1 Post time: Sat May 16 6:60 et ......................................................................... No Triple-Crown winner again this year as the Kentucky Derby winner - Golden Tempo will skip the Preakness for the Belmont.... as did most Derby contenders. It's becoming a trend and the industry isn't happy about it. They're considering moving the Preakness back a few weeks to allow more lay-off time. The only horses from the Derby are Ocelli (3rd), Incredibolt (6th), and Robusta (14th). Great White entered the Derby field, but was scratched. Good luck gentlemen! Honcho FTW!!! 1 Quote
Meglamaniac Posted May 15 Posted May 15 1 minute ago, Mike Honcho said: Honcho FTW!!! LOL, I may have to throw a few bucks on the 6 to win/place/show now 1 1 Quote
GobbleDog Posted May 15 Author Posted May 15 3 hours ago, Mike Honcho said: Honcho FTW!!! Jockey for #5 Talkin is Irad Ortiz Jockey for #6 Chip Honcho is his younger brother - Jose Ortiz They've been known to finish close together in big races. As they did in the recent Kentucky Derby where they finished 1st (Jose) and 2nd (Irad). 1 Quote
BeenHereBefore Posted May 16 Posted May 16 I like Great White kinda cause it's bit wild. Will throw $ on him and Taj Mahal also, Always thanks Gobble for these analysis in the big 3 races! 1 Quote
GobbleDog Posted May 16 Author Posted May 16 4 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said: I like Great White kinda cause it's bit wild. Will throw $ on him and Taj Mahal also, Always thanks Gobble for these analysis in the big 3 races! Happy race day and good luck! Hope one of us wins some money. 1 Quote
GobbleDog Posted May 16 Author Posted May 16 Some analysis from CourtierJournal.com.... 1. Taj Majal (5-1) Why he can win: He’s undefeated in three career starts, all coming at Laurel Park. Perhaps Brittany Russell can make it back-to-back victories for female trainers in Triple Crown races, joining Cherie DeVaux and Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo. Why he can’t: Federico Tesio winners such as Taj Mahal have a rough history in the Preakness. The only Tesio winner to also capture the Preakness was Deputed Testimony in 1983. 2. Ocelli (6-1) Why he can win: Showed in the Kentucky Derby he’s not your typical maiden, taking the lead with a half-furlong to go before finishing third. Why he can’t: A maiden hasn’t won the Preakness since Refund in 1888. Yes, 1888. 3. Crupper (30-1) Why he can win: He’s 2-0-3 in his past five starts, so he’s consistently in the hunt. Donnie Von Hemel comes from a family of Hall of Fame trainers, and maybe it’s time for the family’s first Triple Crown winner. Why he can’t: Speed numbers just don’t match up with the top contenders in this field. 4. Robusta (30-1) Why he can win: Certainly didn’t do much running in the Kentucky Derby, so maybe he’s fresh? Why he can’t: With 14 horses, this Preakness field isn’t exactly small, either. Robusta was bumped at the start in the Kentucky Derby and may well encounter early traffic again. 5. Talkin (20-1) Why he can win: He hasn’t won since breaking his maiden but has consistently competed against the best in his class. The addition of jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. can’t hurt. Why he can’t: He’s 0 for 4 in graded stakes and never has displayed the ability to beat the best in his class. 6. Chip Honcho (5-1) Why he can win: High-strung horse figures to enjoy a quiet Laurel Park setting where only 4,800 fans will be allowed to attend. Stalker could get first run at the pacesetters coming for home. Why he can’t: That fifth-place finish in the Louisiana Derby sticks out like a sore thumb, and trainer Steve Asmussen said he couldn’t find a legitimate excuse. Are Chip Honcho’s best days behind him? 7. The Hell We Did (15-1) Why he can win: Never worse than second in four career starts at four different tracks. Bonus points for a unique name. Why he can’t: Likes to be near the front and figures to encounter classier speed here than he’s ever seen before. 8. Bull By The Horns (30-1) Why he can win: Maybe the other 13 get stuck in the gate. Why he can’t: Speed figures indicate he’s the slowest horse in the field. 9. Iron Honor (5-1) Why he can win: Was on the path to stardom before finishing seventh in the Wood Memorial. Throw that one out, and it’s easy to see why he’s the morning-line favorite. Why he can’t: There’s a reason Chad Brown felt more comfortable going with Emerging Market over Iron Honor in the Kentucky Derby. Perhaps that 2-for-2 start to his career wasn’t as impressive as first thought. 10. Napoleon Solo (8-1) Why he can win: Figures to be on the lead early. If he’s stepped up at all, he can steal it. Why he can’t: Finished fifth in both starts as a 3-year-old. Might be better off as a miler. 11. Corona de Oro (30-1) Why he can win: Should be close early, and jockey John Velazquez won this race in 2023 with National Treasure. Why he can’t: Couldn’t hang on in the Grade 3 Lexington at Keeneland and will be facing tougher here. 12. Incredibolt (5-1) Why he can win: Ran a respectable sixth in the Kentucky Derby and should once again get the strong pace he needs to make a late bid. Why he can’t: Is there another gear, or was the Kentucky Derby his limit? 13. Great White (15-1) Why he can win: Huge horse (17.2 hands) may just intimidate the others and have his way. Why he can’t: Both victories came over a synthetic surface at Turfway Park. Finished fifth in his only dirt start (Blue Grass at Keeneland). 14. Pretty Boy Miah (15-1) Why he can win: Earned a 92 Beyer Speed Figure in his last victory at Aqueduct, which would put him in the mix if he can repeat it. Why he can’t: He’s never raced farther than a mile, so there are big concerns about the distance. #14 post has never won Preakness. Quote
GobbleDog Posted May 16 Author Posted May 16 Some worried it might rain in Maryland today, but currently projected for clear sky and 82 degrees. Good racin weather. Stunning odds shift with my Talkin dropping to 9-1... bastards. And Iron Honor is no longer the favorite moving up to 9-1 for who knows what reason. I thought his odds were too low to begin with, but that's a pretty huge increase considering the amount of money in the Preakness pool. Some coke dealer splashing around money I guess. 1 Quote
BeenHereBefore Posted May 16 Posted May 16 For like $5 a piece I took 3 of them to win. Taj Majal ,Great White and Robusta and Good Luck All! 1 Quote
GobbleDog Posted May 16 Author Posted May 16 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLv_K1NxuVQ Live video link ... also on NBC. Gentlemen, get ready to sing! "Maryland, My Maryland..." 1 Quote
Meglamaniac Posted May 16 Posted May 16 exacta box 1.2.9.10.13 6 to W/P/S $6 1.9.13 S $6 each 2 W/P/S $ 6 each 1 Quote
GobbleDog Posted May 16 Author Posted May 16 2 minutes ago, Meglamaniac said: exacta box 1.2.9.10.13 6 to W/P/S $6 1.9.13 S $6 each 2 W/P/S $ 6 each One of us has to win something. 1 Quote
GobbleDog Posted May 16 Author Posted May 16 Everyone can eat a giant bag of d*cks! No wait... let my compose myself... I'll be back. 2 Quote
BeenHereBefore Posted May 16 Posted May 16 3 minutes ago, GobbleDog said: Everyone can eat a giant bag of d*cks! No wait... let my compose myself... I'll be back. I agree lol. Quote
Meglamaniac Posted May 16 Posted May 16 Exacta-$40 in, win $107 9 show $6 in, win $19.50 6 show $4 in, win $16.40 So overall $80 in and $142.90 out, + $62.90 Was fun Quote
GobbleDog Posted May 17 Author Posted May 17 Win Place Show 10 Napoleon Solo $17.80 $9.80 $7.40 9 Iron Honor $9.20 $6.60 6 Chip Honcho $8.20 $2 Exacta ............. $107 $1 Trifecta ............ $597 $1 Superfecta..... $2,378 According to the "experts" we got the speed duel as expected, but no pace meltdown. Napoleon and Iron Honor fought wire to wire. Should set up for an interesting (and maybe profitable) Belmont. Napoleon Solo, Iron Honor and derby winner Golden Tempo are gonna take a lot of money... leaving a lot on the table for some of the more talented horses, that for whatever reason disappointed at the derby. See yall in two weeks! Quote
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