Nabers

Ray_T · May 19

hey guys, just thought I'd get some input from you guys.

Nabers had torn his ACL late last season and has now had a cleanup procedure on his knee. not that that is uncommon or anything but it makes me feel like he should be avoided for this year in redraft.

typically an ACL takes 18 months to heal fully anyway. and he injured his fairly late in the year. so I'm thinking hes likely not worth drafting in redraft leagues until next year.

anyhow, figured I'd poll the group and see if there are any other opinions on the matter. I'd especially like to see something from Jrokh. hes a giants homer but I have found him to be fairly unbiased and even somewhat critical of his own team (which to me makes his opinion valuable as far as homers go)

weepaws · May 19

I haven't heard anything about Nabers at this time, so I'm thinking that's not good news for redraft leagues, and even more so of your league has a short bench

makindollaz · May 19

If he fell to the 3rd (which he won’t) I’d take him, but I’ll let someone else take the risk with their late 1st/early 2nd.

weepaws · May 19

If he's not due back until late into the season I'm not going to waste a much needed 3rd rd pick on him. He's going to be on your bench. Unless he's going to be ready by at least half way into the season, I'm not interested

makindollaz · May 19

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

If he's not due back until late into the season I'm not going to waste a much needed 3rd rd pick on him. He's going to be on your bench. Unless he's going to be ready by at least half way into the season, I'm not interested

Yeah, my assumption was based on him playing at some point in September/early October.

Ray_T · May 19

I think hed need to fall lower than that before I'd take him.

especially if hes missing time to start the year.

most WR coming off an ACL dont hit 1000 yards. I know hes an exceptional player, but part of the reason hes exceptional is his speed and route running.

with an ACL the first thing to come back is the straight ahead speed. but the burst/acceleration take longer to return and the ability to make a cut on the injured knee takes more time to return. so that would allow players to cheat in the coverage.

so I'd expect something around a 900 yard season(assuming he plays all the games). which likely puts him into WR3 territory. and with time missed, I'd say hes a late round flyer.

there are rare occasions where a person comes back in less than a year and are highly productive (ADP is a case in point) but that from what I've seen is rare. its abnormal. more rare for RB than it is for WR I'd admit that. but still. I wouldnt sacrafice a pick that high for someone missing significant time to an ACL even if the expected time missed will only be a couple of weeks.

jrokh · May 19

The expectation as of now is he will be ready for week 1. Obviously, a lot can change between now and then...

Maximum Overkill · May 19

I love Nabers but I feel like his ADP is too high. He just can't stay on the field. Other than that he's a stud.

Ray_T · May 19

1 hour ago, jrokh said:

The expectation as of now is he will be ready for week 1. Obviously, a lot can change between now and then...

what I want to know is.... does that cleanup procedure hinder his ability to return week 1?

I guess it depends what is done in the cleanup I guess. and they rarely talk about that.

weepaws · May 19

If he's due back week one, I'll spend a 3rd rounder on him

Ray_T · May 19

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

If he's due back week, I'll spend a 3rd rounder on him

Thats probably more than I'd spend. Ive been burned enough times on players coming back from an ACL. I'll let someone else take that risk.

the only one where I had a good shot at a player in this situation and regretted it was ADP. coulda had him I think in the 5th or 6th round and took a pass. That was the only one where I didnt take the guy and regretted it.

otherwise, the regrets were all on situations where I took the guy and he didnt perform (cuz hes recovering from an ACL)

in this case he got hurt reasonably late in the year, so the risks are a bit more than they would have been if it was a week 1 or pre season injury. I dont like it.

but hey, i'm a bit more injury averse on these types of injuries than most people are. so knock yourself out. I have already confirmed i've been wrong on this side of the issue at least once. its certainly possible I'm wrong on this one. but I'd still say the odds are more than 50% in my favor when it comes to passing on him in round 3.

jrokh · May 19

4 hours ago, Ray_T said:

what I want to know is.... does that cleanup procedure hinder his ability to return week 1?

I guess it depends what is done in the cleanup I guess. and they rarely talk about that.

weepaws · May 19

2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

Thats probably more than I'd spend. Ive been burned enough times on players coming back from an ACL. I'll let someone else take that risk.

the only one where I had a good shot at a player in this situation and regretted it was ADP. coulda had him I think in the 5th or 6th round and took a pass. That was the only one where I didnt take the guy and regretted it.

otherwise, the regrets were all on situations where I took the guy and he didnt perform (cuz hes recovering from an ACL)

in this case he got hurt reasonably late in the year, so the risks are a bit more than they would have been if it was a week 1 or pre season injury. I dont like it.

but hey, i'm a bit more injury averse on these types of injuries than most people are. so knock yourself out. I have already confirmed i've been wrong on this side of the issue at least once. its certainly possible I'm wrong on this one. but I'd still say the odds are more than 50% in my favor when it comes to passing on him in round 3.

If he's ready by week one, I doubt he would make it to the 3rd rd, I wouldn't go any higher.

Ray_T · May 20

15 hours ago, weepaws said:

If he's ready by week one, I doubt he would make it to the 3rd rd, I wouldn't go any higher.

based on the injury, I'm happy to let someone else have him with that pick in a redraft format. in a keeper league I'd take him simply because he has value the following year. but in a keeper league he would probably be kept and that would not likely be an option.

weepaws · May 20

Yea not me, if they say he can go week one I'm going to draft in the 3rd-4th rd. But I just can't see him being ready.

Ray_T · May 20

58 minutes ago, weepaws said:

But I just can't see him being ready.

that is the other issue. The injury was actually late in the year. its atypical for a player to even be on the field for week 1 given when he got hurt.

not impossible. but highly improbable unless literally everything goes right in the recovery.

jrokh · May 20

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

that is the other issue. The injury was actually late in the year. its atypical for a player to even be on the field for week 1 given when he got hurt.

not impossible. but highly improbable unless literally everything goes right in the recovery.

Injury was week 3 or 4

weepaws · May 20

It was week four, he should be ready.

Ray_T · May 21

4 hours ago, jrokh said:

Injury was week 3 or 4

you are right. I'm sorry. I think I got my WR mixed up.

sorry bout that.

Showboat · May 21

Of course, there should be more news/updates throughout training camp, but at this point anybody who can snag Nabers in the 3rd is getting a steal. There is always some risk coming back from injury, but really every player is at risk of getting injured at any time. As a rookie, Nabers was essentially a WR1 with crap at QB on a bad team. Assuming he's healthy, his 2024 stats would be a likely floor.

weepaws · May 21

I hoping for a steal

Maximum Overkill · May 22

5 hours ago, weepaws said:

I hoping for a steal

Yup, I want as many shares of Nabers as I clean get, just at the right price.

Ray_T · May 22

I read an interesting article.

I wont post here as it is on a site that competes with fftoday.

on average WR who come back from ACL surgery have 10% fewer receptions per game. yardage is down 10% on average and fantasy points per game are down 15%.

there are a handful of WR who have bucked the trend. I think Jordy Nelson and Keenan Allen and Chris Godwin are 3. but those guys have a history of winning those contested catches which would largely make up for a certain amount of loss in ability to create separation.

if you believe the analysis, I'd say with Nabers (who is a special talent) who likely was on the verge of a breakout, I'd say knock 5-10% off of the stats in his last full season and that's likely in the range I would expect.

if you think his QB will take a big step forward I'd go 5%. if you dont, I'd go 10 %

I think thats a fair adjustment.

weepaws · May 22

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