Brain Thomas Jr sophomore slump or just another chump

[Super Cubs]

He was great as a rookie but last year was not very good. What are your thoughts on him going forward? 

[makindollaz]

Mentioned this in another thread, but I’m probably going to avoid Jacksonville WR’s unless someone drops crazy beyond their ADP.

Not sure much separates Thomas, Meyers, Washington, and suspect Hunter will be more involved too.  And Strange isn’t a bad young TE.  Too many mouths to feed.

[jpcdds]

Had him as a rookie in a keeper league. Kept him as one of my 6 last year. No well in hell I’m keeping him this year. Now that I will no longer own him, he is  safe for the rest of you to draft with a 90/1300/10 year. 

[weepaws]

7 hours ago, makindollaz said:

Mentioned this in another thread, but I’m probably going to avoid Jacksonville WR’s unless someone drops crazy beyond their ADP.

Not sure much separates Thomas, Meyers, Washington, and suspect Hunter will be more involved too.  And Strange isn’t a bad young TE.  Too many mouths to feed.

Agreed, 

[Maximum Overkill]

His rookie season wasn't a fluke, he's a stud. I think it's a Trevor Lawrence problem to be honest. 

I'm buying in Dynasty and avoiding in redraft 

Brian Thomas Jr. enters 2026 with a "post-hype sleeper" outlook, possessing massive WR1 upside but significant risk. After a historically elite rookie season, he suffered a severe sophomore slump marred by injuries, a coaching change, and a sharp decline in production. 

[weepaws]

I'm not trusting a return to his rookie season stats, if it's a Lawrence problem, then the problem is still going to be going on, plus, they have other options. 

[JagFan]

On 5/24/2026 at 5:09 PM, makindollaz said:

Mentioned this in another thread, but I’m probably going to avoid Jacksonville WR’s unless someone drops crazy beyond their ADP.

Not sure much separates Thomas, Meyers, Washington, and suspect Hunter will be more involved too.  And Strange isn’t a bad young TE.  Too many mouths to feed.

Thomas Jr played injured most of last season with a wrist injury suffered early in the season and then the high ankle sprain.  It’s not a Lawrence problem because he still threw for 4,007 yards 29 TDs, but it was his 9 rushing TDs that helped him finish in the top 5 fantasy QBs.  Hunter is a DB, so I’m still not sure why he keeps getting mentioned.  That was clear going into the season last year and folks still drafted him as a starting WR, then called him a bust…for those who did that I’d say their draft strategy and inability to read was a bust.  Etienne is gone.  He wasn’t huge in the passing game, but that’s 38 receptions gone.  Washington really came on down the stretch and is the most likely candidate to be over drafted this season.  Thomas Jr will finish as a top 10 WR this year.

[Maximum Overkill]

5 hours ago, weepaws said:

I'm not trusting a return to his rookie season stats, if it's a Lawrence problem, then the problem is still going to be going on, plus, they have other options. 

You're 100% correct, but in Dynasty he's a solid buy. He's still only 23 years old with elite upside. And if things don't go well this season then he'll likely be somewhere else in 2027. 

I'm buying into this scenario 

[weepaws]

7 hours ago, JagFan said:

Thomas Jr played injured most of last season with a wrist injury suffered early in the season and then the high ankle sprain.  It’s not a Lawrence problem because he still threw for 4,007 yards 29 TDs, but it was his 9 rushing TDs that helped him finish in the top 5 fantasy QBs.  Hunter is a DB, so I’m still not sure why he keeps getting mentioned.  That was clear going into the season last year and folks still drafted him as a starting WR, then called him a bust…for those who did that I’d say their draft strategy and inability to read was a bust.  Etienne is gone.  He wasn’t huge in the passing game, but that’s 38 receptions gone.  Washington really came on down the stretch and is the most likely candidate to be over drafted this season.  Thomas Jr will finish as a top 10 WR this year.

Meyers will be the most under drafted wr on the Jags

[Maximum Overkill]

8 hours ago, JagFan said:

Thomas Jr will finish as a top 10 WR this year

I would love that! 

FP has him ranked as WR 40. I have him more in that WR 2 range with insane upside. 

[weepaws]

WR 40, that's insane , I wouldn't go any lower then wr36  

[jrokh]

ESPN has him at WR44 in ppr...

[Maximum Overkill]

1 hour ago, jrokh said:

ESPN has him at WR44 in ppr...

Yeah, that's absolutely ridiculous. He's good enough that if he's healthy all season he could be top 10+ easy, top 20 without question. 

He'll never fall to anywhere near that ADP, I won't let him 

[TBayXXXVII]

On 5/26/2026 at 3:26 AM, JagFan said:

Thomas Jr played injured most of last season with a wrist injury suffered early in the season and then the high ankle sprain.  It’s not a Lawrence problem because he still threw for 4,007 yards 29 TDs, but it was his 9 rushing TDs that helped him finish in the top 5 fantasy QBs.  Hunter is a DB, so I’m still not sure why he keeps getting mentioned.  That was clear going into the season last year and folks still drafted him as a starting WR, then called him a bust…for those who did that I’d say their draft strategy and inability to read was a bust.  Etienne is gone.  He wasn’t huge in the passing game, but that’s 38 receptions gone.  Washington really came on down the stretch and is the most likely candidate to be over drafted this season.  Thomas Jr will finish as a top 10 WR this year.

Coen is going to spread the ball around, just like last year and just like in Tampa the year before.  It's the best way to make a below average QB look good (see Baker Mayfield as evidence).  Coen likes to throw to his TE also.  Otton got over 6 targets a game in 2024... Strange got 5.  I can see an increase coming for him.  I do think they throw the ball more though, because I'm not so sure what their plan is at RB... maybe everyone gets 6 carries a game, lol.  Not so sure Allen or Tuten are lead backs, but I guess we're going to find out.  But, I do think that's a reason why they throw more.  I can see a them throwing the ball over 600 times this season.

You mentioned the 9 rushing td's by Lawrence... I can see that going up with Etienne gone.  I mean, it's not like Etienne even had a lot of TD's to begin with, he only had 7.  He and Tuten totaled 12, with Lawrence, they had 21.  I can easily see all 7 of those TD's spread out to Tuten, Allen, and Lawrence. That's not going to help Thomas.

At the moment, I'm going to put the Jags pass attemepts at 625.

I'm going to give the TE's and RB's 200 of them (178 last year), leaving 425 for the WR's.  I can see a breakdown like this in terms of targets/receptions (Note: I'm giving every one a 60% catch rate, because I think that's probably where Lawrence will be):
Thomas: 140/84 (14.7 ypr) = 1235 yards
Meyers: 105/63 (11.5) = 725
Washington: 70/42 (13.5) = 567
Hunter: 50/30 (12) = 360
Rest: 60/36 (10) = 360

I'll put Lawrence's TD's at 35.  Split them how you like.  I think those could be ceiling numbers (to fit what you think, Thomas will be), based on the fact that I'm projecting 60 more pass attempts.

[weepaws]

84/1235, those would pretty much match Thomas rookie season.

[TBayXXXVII]

59 minutes ago, weepaws said:

84/1235, those would pretty much match Thomas rookie season.

LOL, I didn't even notice that.  I think that IF, what JagFan says is true about the injuries and it not being a Lawrence thing, then there's a chance he can replicate his rookie season if the Jags increase their passing by about 10%.

[Ray_T]

On 5/26/2026 at 3:18 AM, Maximum Overkill said:

You're 100% correct, but in Dynasty he's a solid buy. He's still only 23 years old with elite upside. And if things don't go well this season then he'll likely be somewhere else in 2027. 

I'm buying into this scenario 

if you can get him at a discount you should be buying.

key with guys like this is patience.

lots of players have that breakout year, and then step back when teams gameplan for him a little more the following year.   then they usually will step back up again.  sometimes its quick.  sometimes it takes a couple of years.   

but if you are a rebuilding team in dynasty you can afford to be patient.

[JagFan]

Early news out of OTAs are very positive.  Apparently Lawrence and Thomas Jr work on chemistry throughout the spring and it shows.  Who knows?  But trending positively.  I do think the frequent drops he had in the first half of last season, 8, could be attributed to the wrist injury and chemistry issues with Lawrence.  Good job on your thoughts TBay.  That was a good read, and well thought out.

[Maximum Overkill]

14 hours ago, Ray_T said:

if you can get him at a discount you should be buying

Yes Sir, I have him in every dynasty league. I drafted him in one and picked him up fairly cheap in others. 

I really feel like he can be a league winner type if he can stay healthy. I'd love nothing more than to have that production in my flex spot, that would be insane. 

[Super Cubs]

I'm putting him on the trade block and see what offers I get.

[Maximum Overkill]

2 hours ago, Super Cubs said:

I'm putting him on the trade block and see what offers I get.

Dynasty? If so a 2027 late first round or very early second (projected). 

I've been getting offers in that range. 

[Super Cubs]

Just a couple of hours in and I had 1 nibble of 3.1. we keep 6 so that's equals to 9.1. gonna hold for now and see what else might come up. 

[TBayXXXVII]

8 minutes ago, Super Cubs said:

Just a couple of hours in and I had 1 nibble of 3.1. we keep 6 so that's equals to 9.1. gonna hold for now and see what else might come up. 

If it's a keeper league, then there's no rush.  Let the off-season advance.  Might be a lot of hype before your draft and you could get a better offer.  Otherwise, if he's one of your 6 best, keep him and hope for the best.