jrokh Posted August 13 Posted August 13 Now is 30 years old. He had 450 touches last year (including playoffs). I am a little skittish in using a top 8ish pick on him. The cliche is you can't win your draft in round 1 but you sure can lose it. Anyone else hesitant to take the plunge, or is it more no guts no glory no balls no falls? 1 Quote
weepaws Posted August 13 Posted August 13 I have him as my rb3, I'm in two non ppr leagues, if he's available and if Gibbs and Robinson are gone, I'm buying 1 Quote
RareN64Dream Posted August 13 Posted August 13 20 minutes ago, weepaws said: I have him as my rb3, I'm in two non ppr leagues, if he's available and if Gibbs and Robinson are gone, I'm buying I would maybe prefer Henry or Taylor. Maybe, Barkley or Cook. I don't know much about the 49ers depth chart for offensive line, besides Trent Williams. I am thinking Chase Brown ranked higher over Josh Jacobs due to the off the field troubles for those two ranked a bit lower. To mention some other RB that might be top RB players this upcoming season. Barkley definitely was concerning a bit last year though. Something was going on with the Eagles offense last season; I ponder what their team will be like this upcoming season. Barkley was getting stuffed a lot by opposing defenses. Quote
GobbleDog Posted August 13 Posted August 13 If McCaff finishes #1 and you didn't take him... you'll think "of course, I should've known." If McCaff blows out his knee and you did take him... you'll think "of course, I should've known." ......................... I don't mind the first scenario as much because whatever alternative Rb or Wr has a darn good chance of finishing high anyway. But the second scenario is just catastrophic. I'm definately not drafting him. I'll take J Taylor instead if available. Otherwise Wr. 2 Quote
JagFan Posted August 13 Posted August 13 1 hour ago, weepaws said: I have him as my rb3, I'm in two non ppr leagues, if he's available and if Gibbs and Robinson are gone, I'm buying I’d draft Curtis Enis over him this year. But I do hope you get him in every league you’re in…. Quote
jrokh Posted August 13 Author Posted August 13 54 minutes ago, GobbleDog said: If McCaff finishes #1 and you didn't take him... you'll think "of course, I should've known." If McCaff blows out his knee and you did take him... you'll think "of course, I should've known." ......................... I don't mind the first scenario as much because whatever alternative Rb or Wr has a darn good chance of finishing high anyway. But the second scenario is just catastrophic. I'm definately not drafting him. I'll take J Taylor instead if available. Otherwise Wr. Thanks for the response. I was thinking the same. Having trouble getting past the 30 years old+ 450 touches combo. Usually a bad outcome for a non-Derrick Henry RB… Quote
GobbleDog Posted August 13 Posted August 13 4 minutes ago, jrokh said: Thanks for the response. I was thinking the same. Having trouble getting past the 30 years old+ 450 touches combo. Usually a bad outcome for a non-Derrick Henry RB… The 1st rd pick is the most valuable capital we have in fantasy - hard to recover when it goes bust. Taking any Rb in the 1st is inherently a little riskier than Wr (typically less injured), but some risks are bigger than others. Ain't none bigger than McCaff. If ya do get a Rb who actually stays healthy (and produces as expected), the math indicates it creates some point advantage compared to other positions (Wr). So Gibbs, Bijan, Taylor, Cook.... probably worth it. I draw the line there for 1st rd Rbs. Quote
nobody Posted August 13 Posted August 13 I'm going to live or die with McCaffery if I am in that position to choose. I can't pass him up when they force feed him so much. 1 Quote
ICEMAN Posted August 15 Posted August 15 On 8/13/2026 at 5:18 PM, nobody said: I'm going to live or die with McCaffery if I am in that position to choose. I can't pass him up when they force feed him so much. Myself as well. ICEMAN Quote
Super Cubs Posted August 15 Posted August 15 In both of my keepers he's on the trade block. One owner (keep 6) is asking for 1st round picks 2026 and 2027. Quote
Ray_T Posted August 20 Posted August 20 On 8/13/2026 at 1:02 PM, GobbleDog said: If McCaff finishes #1 and you didn't take him... you'll think "of course, I should've known." If McCaff blows out his knee and you did take him... you'll think "of course, I should've known." ......................... I don't mind the first scenario as much because whatever alternative Rb or Wr has a darn good chance of finishing high anyway. But the second scenario is just catastrophic. I'm definately not drafting him. I'll take J Taylor instead if available. Otherwise Wr. I actually have a second round grade on CMC for this very reason. hes a first round talent, but given his chances of missing time hes a coin flip. good, or bad. those type of players shouldnt be first round picks. given his ADP that likely means I wont have him on any of my teams. Thats fine. I'll let someone else take that risk. you blow a first round pick its awful hard to win a championship. I did that once but I was exceptionally lucky. 1 Quote
weepaws Posted August 20 Posted August 20 One good hit and every first rd pick is capable of missing time, I remember how stupid most of you ff guru thought it was when I said he's my second rb on my board last season, remember second place is just the first loser. Quote
JagFan Posted August 20 Posted August 20 No top 10 group of QB, WR, or RB have repeated as the top 10 (in any order) the next year in the history of fantasy football. AI actually suggests that for many reasons, including injuries, it is statistically impossible. The position, such as weepaws, is taking on CMC, is valid and defendable. The position that CMC has a higher probability of falling out of the top 10 due to historical data, and especially his historical injury trend, is also defendable. Most fantasy football leagues are won in the middle rounds and free agency making the thought that playing it safe in the first three rounds is defendable. Quote
Ray_T Posted August 20 Posted August 20 2 hours ago, JagFan said: No top 10 group of QB, WR, or RB have repeated as the top 10 (in any order) the next year in the history of fantasy football. AI actually suggests that for many reasons, including injuries, it is statistically impossible. The position, such as weepaws, is taking on CMC, is valid and defendable. The position that CMC has a higher probability of falling out of the top 10 due to historical data, and especially his historical injury trend, is also defendable. Most fantasy football leagues are won in the middle rounds and free agency making the thought that playing it safe in the first three rounds is defendable. sure. everything is defendable. but.... CMC is 30. the time when RB's tend to break down. hes been fragile. over the last 6 years. 3 of them he played in less than 8 games. 3 of them he played a full season. statistically thats 50% chance of remaining healthy over a decent sample size of seasons. now 30. odds might now be slightly better than 50% that he gets hurt (based on age and history) I would say its defendable that I dont pick him in round 1. but Im also a bit more injury averse than most. and its not groundbreaking. I'd guess his adp is around 5 or 6. I'm moving him to like 14 ish. hes not a DND though effectively hes been downgraded to a point where the risks are more acceptable to me. you are right. most drafts arent lost in round 1 but some sure are. and usually its when your #1 pick is injured or doesnt perform. I'd guess it happens 10-20% of the time. Talent wise hes round 1. I dont deny that. and likely early round 1. heatlh wise hes nowhere close to round 1. and when I go to an alternative first round player I'm not giving up much to gain more certainty in production. its just a risk vs rewards thing. and I'm a bit more risk averse than most on this. Quote
Flipper Posted August 20 Posted August 20 30 minutes ago, Ray_T said: you are right. most drafts arent lost in round 1 but some sure are. and usually its when your #1 pick is injured or doesnt perform. I'd guess it happens 10-20% of the time. This is 100% true - especially if the league size is larger. My 16-team league last year was great but started out with me foolishly drafting Brian Thomas ahead of Puka or St. Brown and that pick - in hindsight - landed me in last place instead of first. Some say draft safe early and upside late but we all do what we are comfortable doing. Bob Harris always says he is 'injury-agnostic'. We can't totally predict injuries so it comes down to how risky you want to be. If the league is not PPR then there are backs every week to nab a TD or two but its like playing the lottery. Quote
JagFan Posted August 20 Posted August 20 The fact he isn’t practicing right now is a huge red flag for me as well. There’s speculation that he may be “holding in” due to his contract situation, but it feels more like 2024. Quote
Ray_T Posted August 20 Posted August 20 53 minutes ago, Flipper said: This is 100% true - especially if the league size is larger. My 16-team league last year was great but started out with me foolishly drafting Brian Thomas ahead of Puka or St. Brown and that pick - in hindsight - landed me in last place instead of first. Some say draft safe early and upside late but we all do what we are comfortable doing. Bob Harris always says he is 'injury-agnostic'. We can't totally predict injuries so it comes down to how risky you want to be. If the league is not PPR then there are backs every week to nab a TD or two but its like playing the lottery. I think there is a balance there. the only reason hes still reasonably high on my draft board is because the upside is so fantastic. I'm just not willing to risk a first round pick on him due to the injury thing. if its a 2nd round pick I'm willing to eat that if things dont work out. that is the point where I feel the potential reward justifies the risk. a lot of people will discount this risk for various reasons, and that's their business. but when I run the math the average of his high value vs his low value is around 2nd to 3rd round value. because of what he can do for a team I have a 2nd round grade on him. while it may be higher than my math tells me, but as a manager I'm willing to make that risk if he falls that far. at that point you have 2 first round values on your team if he stays heatlhy and that becomes a lot more attractive when trying to win a championship. Quote
weepaws Posted August 20 Posted August 20 He didn't practice last season, smart move not having him practice, I'll take him again Quote
ICEMAN Posted August 20 Posted August 20 1 hour ago, weepaws said: He didn't practice last season, smart move not having him practice, I'll take him again Shanahan said before the preseason started that he was going to give him a lot of veteran days off. ICEMAN Quote
JagFan Posted August 21 Posted August 21 6 hours ago, weepaws said: He didn't practice last season, smart move not having him practice, I'll take him again I’m curious at what pick? 1.1 or 1.2 or either? Quote
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