I tried to do a top down yardage projection. It's not the best, but I'll share it.

[nobody]

T Team Team Rush Yds RB1 RB1 Rush % RB1 Rush Yds RB2 RB2 Rush % RB2 Rush Yds RB3 RB3 Rush % RB3 Rush Yds QB QB Rush % QB Rush Yds Rush Alloc % Team Pass Yds WR1 WR1 Rec % WR1 Rec Yds WR2 WR2 Rec % WR2 Rec Yds WR3 WR3 Rec % WR3 Rec Yds TE1 TE1 Rec % TE1 Rec Yds RB1 Rec % RB1 Rec Yds RB2 Rec % RB2 Rec Yds RB3 Rec % RB3 Rec Yds Pass Alloc % Arizona Cardinals 1850 Jeremiyah Love 43.0% 796 Tyler Allgeier 33.0% 611 Bam Knight 8.0% 148 Jacoby Brissett 5.0% 93 89.0% 3800 Marvin Harrison Jr. 22.0% 836 Michael Wilson 20.0% 760 Kendrick Bourne 10.0% 380 Trey McBride 25.0% 950 5.0% 190 3.0% 114 5.0% 190 90.0% Atlanta Falcons 2200 Bijan Robinson 55.0% 1210 Brian Robinson Jr. 25.0% 550 Tyler Goodson 8.0% 176 Michael Penix Jr 0.5% 11 88.5% 3850 Drake London 34.0% 1309 Jahan Dotson 12.0% 462 Olamide Zaccheaus 15.0% 578 Kyle Pitts 18.0% 693 8.0% 308 1.0% 39 1.0% 39 89.0% Baltimore Ravens 2837 Derrick Henry 58.0% 1645 Justice Hill 10.0% 284 Rasheen Ali 2.0% 57 Lamar Jackson 20.0% 567 90.0% 3700 Zay Flowers 25.0% 925 Rashod Bateman 20.0% 740 Ja'Kobi Lane 12.0% 444 Mark Andrews 18.0% 666 5.0% 185 3.0% 111 3.0% 111 86.0% Buffalo Bills 2472 James Cook 55.0% 1360 Ray Davis 10.0% 247 Ty Johnson 5.0% 124 Josh Allen 20.0% 494 90.0% 3940 DJ Moore 23.0% 906 Khalil Shakir 15.0% 591 Keon Coleman 10.0% 394 Dalton Kincaid 20.0% 788 8.0% 315 5.0% 197 4.0% 158 85.0% Carolina Panthers 2050 Chuba Hubbard 56.0% 1148 Jonathon Brooks 15.0% 308 Trevor Etienne 7.0% 144 Bryce Young 10.0% 205 88.0% 3600 Tetairoa McMillan 31.0% 1116 Jalen Coker 13.0% 468 Xavier Legette 11.0% 396 Darren Waller 12.0% 432 7.0% 252 4.0% 144 2.0% 72 80.0% Chicago Bears 2450 D'Andre Swift 44.0% 1078 Kyle Monangai 32.0% 784 Roschon Johnson 3.0% 74 Caleb Williams 15.0% 368 94.0% 4100 Rome Odunze 21.0% 861 Luther Burden III 24.0% 984 Kalif Raymond 7.0% 287 Colston Loveland 21.0% 861 8.0% 328 3.0% 123 1.0% 41 85.0% Cincinnati Bengals 1590 Chase Brown 62.0% 986 Samaje Perine 23.0% 366 Tahj Brooks 3.0% 48 Joe Burrow 2.0% 32 90.0% 4750 Ja'Marr Chase 31.0% 1473 Tee Higgins 21.0% 998 Andrei Iosivas 10.0% 475 Mike Gesicki 8.0% 380 10.0% 475 2.0% 95 1.0% 48 83.0% Cleveland Browns 1650 Quinshon Judkins 60.0% 990 Dylan Sampson 15.0% 248 Raheim Sanders 3.0% 50 Deshaun Watson 9.0% 149 87.0% 3150 Jerry Jeudy 22.0% 693 KC Concepcion 18.0% 567 Denzel Boston 15.0% 473 Harold Fannin Jr. 18.0% 567 7.0% 221 4.0% 126 1.0% 32 85.0% Dallas Cowboys 2050 Javonte Williams 60.0% 1230 Malik Davis 25.0% 513 TBD 1.0% 21 Dak Prescott 5.0% 103 91.0% 4500 CeeDee Lamb 28.0% 1260 George Pickens 26.0% 1170 Ryan Flournoy 7.0% 315 Jake Ferguson 14.0% 630 7.0% 315 2.0% 90 1.0% 45 85.0% Denver Broncos 2100 J.K. Dobbins 35.0% 735 RJ Harvey 20.0% 420 Jonah Coleman 20.0% 420 Bo Nix 15.0% 315 90.0% 4150 Courtland Sutton 22.0% 913 Jaylen Waddle 25.0% 1038 Troy Franklin 12.0% 498 Evan Engram 13.0% 540 5.0% 208 6.0% 249 1.0% 42 84.0% Detroit Lions 2175 Jahmyr Gibbs 50.0% 1088 Isiah Pacheco 30.0% 653 Sione Vaki 5.0% 109 Jared Goff 3.0% 65 88.0% 4450 Amon-Ra St. Brown 28.0% 1246 Jameson Williams 22.0% 979 Isaac TeSlaa 7.0% 312 Sam LaPorta 17.0% 757 12.0% 534 2.0% 89 1.0% 45 89.0% Green Bay Packers 2075 MarShawn Lloyd 45.0% 934 Chris Brooks 25.0% 519 Kaleb Johnson 8.0% 166 Jordan Love 8.0% 166 86.0% 3850 Christian Watson 25.0% 963 Jayden Reed 19.0% 732 Matthew Golden 17.0% 655 Tucker Kraft 16.0% 616 7.0% 270 2.0% 77 1.0% 39 87.0% Houston Texans 1925 David Montgomery 50.0% 963 Woody Marks 30.0% 578 Jawhar Jordan 3.0% 58 C.J. Stroud 7.0% 135 90.0% 3950 Nico Collins 28.0% 1106 Xavier Hutchinson 11.0% 435 Jaylin Noel 10.0% 395 Dalton Schultz 17.0% 672 6.0% 237 7.0% 277 1.0% 40 80.0% Indianapolis Colts 2100 Jonathan Taylor 70.0% 1470 DJ Giddens 7.0% 147 Seth McGowan 1.0% 21 Daniel Jones 12.0% 252 90.0% 3850 Alec Pierce 23.0% 886 Josh Downs 17.0% 655 Keenan Allen 15.0% 578 Tyler Warren 20.0% 770 9.0% 347 2.0% 77 1.0% 39 87.0% Jacksonville Jaguars 1900 Bhayshul Tuten 37.0% 703 Chris Rodriguez Jr. 30.0% 570 LeQuint Allen Jr. 5.0% 95 Trevor Lawrence 18.0% 342 90.0% 4250 Brian Thomas Jr. 23.0% 978 Parker Washington 20.0% 850 Jakobi Meyers 19.0% 808 Brenton Strange 14.0% 595 5.0% 213 2.0% 85 2.0% 85 85.0% Kansas City Chiefs 1875 Kenneth Walker III 40.0% 750 Emari Demercado 20.0% 375 Emmett Johnson 15.0% 281 Patrick Mahomes 15.0% 281 90.0% 4150 Rashee Rice 27.0% 1121 Xavier Worthy 20.0% 830 Tyquan Thornton 9.0% 374 Travis Kelce 18.0% 747 7.0% 291 3.0% 125 2.0% 83 86.0% Las Vegas Raiders 1900 Ashton Jeanty 60.0% 1140 Mike Washington Jr. 20.0% 380 Dylan Laube 3.0% 57 Kirk Cousins 3.0% 57 86.0% 3750 Tre Tucker 17.0% 638 Jalen Nailor 14.0% 525 Jack Bech 11.0% 413 Brock Bowers 27.0% 1013 10.0% 375 2.0% 75 1.0% 38 82.0% Los Angeles Chargers 2200 Omarion Hampton 45.0% 990 Kimani Vidal 25.0% 550 Keaton Mitchell 10.0% 220 Justin Herbert 10.0% 220 90.0% 4600 Ladd McConkey 25.0% 1150 Quentin Johnston 18.0% 828 Tre Harris 13.0% 598 Oronde Gadsden II 12.0% 552 8.0% 368 3.0% 138 2.0% 92 81.0% Los Angeles Rams 2150 Kyren Williams 55.0% 1183 Blake Corum 31.0% 667 Jarquez Hunter 2.0% 43 Matthew Stafford 2.0% 43 90.0% 4550 Puka Nacua 33.0% 1502 Davante Adams 19.0% 865 Jordan Whittington 6.0% 273 Colby Parkinson 10.0% 455 7.0% 319 2.0% 91 1.0% 46 78.0% Miami Dolphins 2000 De'Von Achane 50.0% 1000 Jaylen Wright 11.0% 220 Ollie Gordon II 7.0% 140 Malik Willis 19.0% 380 87.0% 3100 Malik Washington 20.0% 620 Jalen Tolbert 16.0% 496 Caleb Douglas 11.0% 341 Greg Dulcich 13.0% 403 15.0% 465 3.0% 93 2.0% 62 80.0% Minnesota Vikings 1950 Jordan Mason 39.0% 761 Aaron Jones Sr 29.0% 566 Zavier Scott 5.0% 98 Kyler Murray 17.0% 332 90.0% 3750 Justin Jefferson 30.0% 1125 Jordan Addison 18.0% 675 Jauan Jennings 13.0% 488 T.J. Hockenson 17.0% 638 3.0% 113 6.0% 225 1.0% 38 88.0% New England Patriots 2125 Rhamondre Stevenson 40.0% 850 TreVeyon Henderson 25.0% 531 Jam Miller 3.0% 64 Drake Maye 20.0% 425 88.0% 4350 A.J. Brown 29.0% 1262 Romeo Doubs 17.0% 740 DeMario Douglas 12.0% 522 Hunter Henry 16.0% 696 4.0% 174 8.0% 348 1.0% 44 87.0% New Orleans Saints 1900 Travis Etienne Jr. 48.0% 912 Alvin Kamara 16.0% 304 Kendre Miller 12.0% 228 Tyler Shough 10.0% 190 86.0% 4000 Chris Olave 29.0% 1160 Jordyn Tyson 16.0% 640 Devaughn Vele 10.0% 400 Juwan Johnson 18.0% 720 7.0% 280 4.0% 160 2.0% 80 86.0% New York Giants 2100 Cam Skattebo 42.0% 882 Tyrone Tracy Jr. 22.0% 462 Devin Singletary 8.0% 168 Jaxson Dart 22.0% 462 94.0% 3900 Malik Nabers 30.0% 1170 Darnell Mooney 15.0% 585 Darius Slayton 14.0% 546 Isaiah Likely 16.0% 624 6.0% 234 5.0% 195 1.0% 39 87.0% New York Jets 2000 Breece Hall 58.0% 1160 Braelon Allen 19.0% 380 Isaiah Davis 8.0% 160 Geno Smith 5.0% 100 90.0% 3850 Garrett Wilson 31.0% 1194 Adonai Mitchell 15.0% 578 Omar Cooper Jr. 11.0% 424 Mason Taylor 17.0% 655 10.0% 385 3.0% 116 3.0% 116 90.0% Philadelphia Eagles 2250 Saquon Barkley 58.0% 1305 Tank Bigsby 15.0% 338 Will Shipley 3.0% 68 Jalen Hurts 20.0% 450 96.0% 3600 DeVonta Smith 28.0% 1008 Dontayvion Wicks 17.0% 612 Makai Lemon 13.0% 468 Dallas Goedert 17.0% 612 8.0% 288 2.0% 72 2.0% 72 87.0% Pittsburgh Steelers 1900 Jaylen Warren 43.0% 817 Rico Dowdle 35.0% 665 Eli Heidenreich 10.0% 190 Aaron Rodgers 2.0% 38 90.0% 3900 DK Metcalf 25.0% 975 Michael Pittman Jr. 20.0% 780 Roman Wilson 11.0% 429 Pat Freiermuth 15.0% 585 9.0% 351 4.0% 156 1.0% 39 85.0% San Francisco 49ers 2000 Christian McCaffrey 55.0% 1100 Kaelon Black 18.0% 360 Jordan James 9.0% 180 Brock Purdy 10.0% 200 92.0% 4400 Mike Evans 22.0% 968 Deebo Samuel Sr. 17.0% 748 De'Zhaun Stribling 10.0% 440 George Kittle 17.0% 748 14.0% 616 2.0% 88 1.0% 44 83.0% Seattle Seahawks 1850 Jadarian Price 35.0% 648 George Holani 25.0% 463 Emmanuel Wilson 15.0% 278 Sam Darnold 10.0% 185 85.0% 4000 Jaxon Smith-Njigba 36.0% 1440 Rashid Shaheed 16.0% 640 Cooper Kupp 15.0% 600 AJ Barner 14.0% 560 5.0% 200 2.0% 80 2.0% 80 90.0% Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1925 Bucky Irving 53.0% 1020 Kenneth Gainwell 20.0% 385 Sean Tucker 7.0% 135 Baker Mayfield 8.0% 154 88.0% 3950 Emeka Egbuka 23.0% 909 Chris Godwin 24.0% 948 Jalen McMillan 14.0% 553 Cade Otton 11.0% 435 8.0% 316 6.0% 237 1.0% 40 87.0% Tennessee Titans 1750 Tony Pollard 50.0% 875 Tyjae Spears 20.0% 350 Nicholas Singleton 8.0% 140 Cam Ward 11.0% 193 89.0% 3350 Carnell Tate 22.0% 737 Wan'Dale Robinson 20.0% 670 Calvin Ridley 16.0% 536 Gunnar Helm 10.0% 335 7.0% 235 5.0% 168 2.0% 67 82.0% Washington Commanders 2250 Jacory Croskey-Merritt 38.0% 855 Rachaad White 22.0% 495 Kaytron Allen 10.0% 225 Jayden Daniels 22.0% 495 92.0% 3800 Terry McLaurin 28.0% 1064 Stefon Diggs 20.0% 760 Luke McCaffrey 10.0% 380 Chig Okonkwo 12.0% 456 5.0% 190 7.0% 266 1.0% 38 83.0%

[nobody]

Goals were to

• Have some sort of bearing on if projections were out of whack
• Link offensive philosophy to typical spreading of the ball (ie, GB likes to spread the ball around in passing game while the Rams love to feed one guy

[Ray_T]

hey I am gonna reach out to you privately on this.

I'd like to discuss in a bit more detail what exactly was done here    I think there is some merit to doing this sort of projection based on team rushes rather than individual rushes.   as some offenses do typically follow similar patterns from year to year with respect to touches at the position.

so this sort of thing is definitely worth looking at. 

 

[TBayXXXVII]

23 hours ago, nobody said:

Goals were to

• Have some sort of bearing on if projections were out of whack
• Link offensive philosophy to typical spreading of the ball (ie, GB likes to spread the ball around in passing game while the Rams love to feed one guy

Good job with this.