TBayXXXVII's 2026 Buccaneers prospectus (as if you care)...

[TBayXXXVII]

To start, I think we have to start with the offensive line.  Of the 5, I think we have 3 Grade A quality players.  With Wirfs and Goedeke at the tackle positions, I think we a pair in the argument of "the best tackle tandom in the league".  Cody Mauch is an excellent Right Guard.  The other two spots however, is another matter.  Barton at Center is horrible.  This WILL BE a problem.  He's very bad at his job.  Bredeson, at best, is a bottom tier starting LG.  He's lucky he has Wirfs on the outside to bail him out.  The result of this line will play a big role in the production of the offense.

I expect this offense to pass more than they run.  A couple of reasons... 

1. Zac Robinson is a product of the Sean McVay tree where passing, while not absurdly high, does favor the air yards over the ground.
2. The inadequacies of the interior OL, leans towards an outside run game and that's not really Irving's forte, it's actually Sean Tuckers.
3. The defense, at best, will be "ok", but most likely, below average.  The result will lead to the liklihood of more shootouts than desired, in order to win games.

Baker Mayfield: Ceiling-wise - I'm anticipating about 600 pass attempts.  I do however think his metrics will be down.  I'm thinking about 61% comp percentage, about 7.0 y/a, TD% around 4 and Int% around 2.3%.  Why?  Injuries.  Not to him, but with Egbuka (turf toe), and McMillan (neck).  Mayfield isn't a guy that elevates players, he uses the guys he has, well.  If the guys he has aren't 100%, that's what you're getting.  To me, the numbers break out to about 4200 yards, 24 TD's and 13 Int's.  For fantasy purposes, that's around 250 points.  I see no reason why his rushing numbers will be any different than years past, so I'll give him 350 yards and 2 TDs for an additional 47 fantasy points, putting him right around 300 total.  Last year, that would put him at QB8.  Again, that's the ceiling.  If drafting, I'd say to expect around 275, so QB12(?)... like last year.  I think those numbers are roughly on par with FFToday.

Bucky Irving:  I don't know that he's actually healthy.  I don't think the plan will be to give him 20, 18, or even 16 touches per game.  I'm going to say around 14 rush attempts and 2 pass targets.  I'm going to say 240 rush attempts at 3.9 ypc for 936 yards, with 6 TD's. Receiving, I'll say 25 receptions for 200 yards and 2 TD's.  For fantasy purposes, we're looking at around 187 points.  Last year, that would be RB23.

Kenneth Gainwell:  I expect him to be used much like he was last year.  They paid him a good chunk of change.  That's a big reason why I think Tampa will be passing more and confirms my thoughts on the OLine situation.  I expect him to possibly be as high as the 3rd highest target share guy on the team.  I'm going to put him at 90 targets, about 75 recptions for 550 yards and 4 TD's.  Rushing, I expect more of his career norms, around 60 carries at about 4.2 per carry.  I doubt he gets in the end zone.  For fantasy purposes, that puts him around 180 fantasy points.  In the ballpark of Irving.

Sean Tucker: I see him being used more in games that are expected to be shootouts, like Week 1 vs Cincinnati.  I think he'll be the primary back late in the game because they're not going to run up the middle.  It'll be a pass heavy half where rushing will be to the outside.  In games vs weaker defenses and tighter matchups, I expect little usage.  I do however think his rushing workload could be higher than Irving's, if Iriving misses games.  Overall though, I'm expecting about 6 carries a game, 4 yards a carry and 2 scores.  I'll give him 3 receptions for 15 yards receiving.  Putting him around 408 yards rushing, 423 total, so we're looking at a touch under 60 fantasy points.  Why he matters, is because as I noted, I think he gets a bigger share than Irving, if Irving is out.  In deeper leagues, not a bad stash option.

Among the 3, I have the backfield at 402 total carries.  Last year, Irving, White, and Tucker totaled 391.

Chris Godwin: He's healthy right now, by all accounts.  If he stays that way, I can see a big year.  A potential 150 targets should yield a 100 catch season with 1250 yards and flirt with double digit TD's, I'm going to call it 8.  We're looking at about 273 fantasy points.  That would be WR6 last year.  Yup, I said it.  If he's healthy all year, he's a league winner.  He will be a WR1.  Let's not pretend this hasn't happened in the past.

Emeka Egbuka: I don't think he plays at 100% at all, all year.  Not even sure he plays Week 1.  That said, let's a assume he plays all 17, I do think the nagging injuries will reduce his production.  I'll give him 115 targets, about 75 receptions for 900 yards and 6 TD's, so we're looking at about 201 fantasy points, good for WR22 last year.

Ted Hurst is probably a guy to stash, if Egbuka is hurt and McMillan doesn't really rebound from his neck injury last year, he could be the #2 target in a lot of games.

Cade Otton: He's a better NFL TE than a fantasy TE.  I think if there are too many injuries to the receivers, he could be a starter from time to time.  Replicating last years numbers, around 60 for 575 and a score is probably what to expect.  You're looking at about 125 fantasy points, so a low end TE that could be a bye-week or situational starter.

Chase McLaughlin: I can see him replicating his K7 numbers from last year.  The Bucs will move the ball, I don't think they score a ton of TD's, but I think they'll be in FG territory a lot.  Top 5 potential.  Definitely a starter... unless you're like me and stream every week.

I expect the Bucs to be a 7-10 team this year.  Todd Bowles is a bad HC, the result will be a below average defense.  I don't think there's enough bullets in the gun on offense and Mayfield isn't good enough to carry a team.  The result will be a lot of #2 potential from the team for fantasy, except for Godwin and McLaughlin.  I don't project people getting hurt.  If YOU want to do that, that's fine, but these are the numbers I expect to see from the starters, if they play all 17 games.

[Ray_T]

appreciate the post.  

Youre my go to guy when it comes to info about the Bucs.

thanks for doing this.

[shadrap]

thanx.  Love it.

[weepaws]

Godwin adp is amazing right now.  .